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OfflineHotnuts
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Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming.
    #15128753 - 09/24/11 06:04 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

I'm sure a lot of you are wondering wth i'm talking about, being i've been so negative on the global economy and it seems like the sky's falling, because of the current situation. But, a lot has changed since the current crash had gotten underway and did so in a flash. Excellent improvement in Consumer Credit issuance in the US and an improving services sector. Don't forget, the majority of our economy is services oriented. This improvement in our services sector, is from bank lending loosening up. Canada has already started to feel the effects of our improvements, as their Ivey PMI #, clearly shows. Companies and banks are STACKED with cash. And that cash is finally starting to be put to work!

I've been trying to hammer in the importance of inter-bank costs of credit, but no one seems too interested. So, let me explain why i'm harping on it so much. When economies go into recession, banks tighten up on lending to not only consumers, but to other banks, as well. Afraid of bad loans turning up, bank runs on deposits, etc. Then, the inter-bank costs of credit, start rising because they're reluctant to lend. I've already put the 3 spreads I watch in Geo's thread, so i'm not doing it again. But, at the current rates, we're not even in Flash Crash territory, much less recession. I did a good amount of work on (and let me tell you, it was difficult)rising inter-bank costs of credit, going into major market crashes and recessions. Current rates, aren't even in the general vicinity of panic, among the inter-banking system. In fact, current rates, are more than 10x less than they are going into major crashes/recessions, on average. I'm afraid that's a rather complacent, banking system. 

Anyways. Once the EU gets this- http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/24/us-imf-idUSTRE78N1JE20110924 taken care of and we get some good clues on companies health coming into this earnings season, i'm pretty damn sure some nice opps are in the works!

I quit working, so i'll be able to post technicals and b.s. here more often. :bigjoint:


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15131770 - 09/25/11 11:39 AM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Be careful. Nothing wrong with the sidelines, until the EU crap, gets squared away. Day trading only, for me. Until this gets resolved. This news, just sent eur/usd plunging 300 pips. Recovering a bulk of the losses, now. Down around 100 or so.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trillion-plan-to-save-the-eurozone-being-prepared.html


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Invisibleairclay
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15131829 - 09/25/11 11:55 AM (12 years, 4 months ago)

how should someone who doesn't know what a risk asset is, take advantage of this. where could I learn more?


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: airclay]
    #15132281 - 09/25/11 01:43 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Risk assets like- stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds. Do any stock investing, before? There's lots of good hands down here in Money Matters, so don't be afraid to learn by browsing threads (Geo has an informative thread going) and investopedia.com has a lot of info in there, as well. I've got a few threads lingering around, that are based on technical analysis and market timing.

Euro has recovered and some, form earlier near 3 cent plunge. Now up 20 pips from Friday's close. Nuts. Get ready folks! This is gonna be CLASSIC!  :rockon:


Edited by Hotnuts (09/25/11 01:46 PM)


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15177541 - 10/04/11 05:57 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

EU's getting everything squared away now, with a bank bailout fund. But, Italy's credit worthiness took it on the chin today with a Moody's downgrade of a whopping 3 notches and threat of more to come. In this case for the short term, obvious EU bank re-capitalization is #1. When the new quarter's trade got underway Monday and that time frame updated, no change in my bullishness from a technical standpoint. ECRI, has come out with a recession call, as most everyone knows and they are incorrect. No US recession. They got the majority of it correct, except for........

You don't want to miss out on this madness. If i'm correct, this is going to be one for the record books. We'll see. Still neutral, here. But, that could change quickly. I'll do my best to keep this topic updated asap.


Edited by Hotnuts (10/04/11 06:01 PM)


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15177597 - 10/04/11 06:07 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

This should be an interesting week. :cool:


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15177601 - 10/04/11 06:08 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

I finally got a job, and have some savings going.  investing to come next, horray!


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: geokills]
    #15177721 - 10/04/11 06:40 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
This should be an interesting week. :cool:




Yes sir, it should. Especially, if tomorrow's ADP comes in good. I saw in your thread you mention 1125, S&P. There's a key retracement level there at 1126. If ADP comes in good? I'm gettin' long, bigger than shit. Undoubtably worth an aggressive play if the number's good. Then we'll see what ISM-s and NFP have in store.

Congrats Meams! Feels good to have a paycheck to look forward to.


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15181069 - 10/05/11 12:00 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Rrrrrrrollllin'! :gethigh:

Daily MACD bullish divergence, underway! Reminds of Flash Crash mess, circled.



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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15193019 - 10/07/11 06:43 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

After today's $21b m/m in Consumer Credit decline, i'm market neutral. I've never seen a decline of that magnitude and am not sure if it's from the EU situation and market decline, or from lack of demand. Very concerning. US interbank lending rates are rising, but not even in Flash Crash territory, or disaster territory for that matter. Hopefully, it's a one off. Even in boom times, big declines in credit issuance happen, but that's a whopping m/m decline and has me on wait.


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15193414 - 10/07/11 08:31 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

The markets still going to be going down. For a while. EU is not even close to getting things handled. Neither are we. I'm a fan of TVIX, SDS, FAZ, and TZA at this point. All still in an uptrend. Theres a few regular stocks uptrending still as well, few and far between in this market though.


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Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15195082 - 10/08/11 08:32 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

That credit number is one of the worst m/m drops i've ever seen! C and BAC have me worried with these fees they're enacting, as well. Not a very good sign of a healthy bank, imho. Not very smart on the managements parts, either.


Edited by Hotnuts (10/08/11 08:32 AM)


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15196860 - 10/08/11 04:53 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

That aside. Here's what i've been drilling, so i'm sticking to my guns. Unless, the EU flies to pieces. Which is highly unlikely with the ECB now open for 1 year loans for banks, at a discount. The Fed has it's swap lines open, as well.



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InvisibleIrradiated_Feces
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15198806 - 10/09/11 02:05 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Hotnuts said:
Rrrrrrrollllin'! :gethigh:

Daily MACD bullish divergence, underway! Reminds of Flash Crash mess, circled.







I've found after a big waterfall like in august it skews the macd bull signal, at least in shorter term charts. I've been burned a few times by what I thought was a good macd upside divergence but it followed a rather steep decline and didn't act the way I would have thought. So i'm a little skeptical about your bullish enthusiasm and all the news lately is not adding any confidence.


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Irradiated_Feces]
    #15201423 - 10/09/11 04:32 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

No, it can skew the daily MACD, as well. But not nearly as bad as the shorter time frames (like hourly for instance) during long, steep runs in either direction. I didn't mark RSI and stochastics. But, they too are in bullish divergence. I was only making a comparison with the Flash Crash, consolidation period. It's not just that chart, but longer term charts, as well. That are still bullish and NOT lagging because of their long term time frames, like some would believe. But, those technicals, I can't share.

Look at the TED spread chart above. The spread isn't even as wide as it was during the Flash Crash. Yet, anyways.


Edited by Hotnuts (10/09/11 04:37 PM)


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InvisibleIrradiated_Feces
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15240549 - 10/17/11 09:00 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Well, I gotta hand it to you, just about everything climbed last week. Any idea how much longer the gains will continue, el predicto? :wink:


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Excellent buy opps for risk assets, coming. [Re: Irradiated_Feces]
    #15282296 - 10/26/11 06:05 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Keep the pedal to the metal. When the next drop (not even close to there) in markets is near, i'll pop in with a warning. Good luck!


Edited by Hotnuts (10/27/11 07:55 AM)


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