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Invisiblejohnm214
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So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really?
    #14918605 - 08/14/11 12:47 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Piracy is in the news pretty much constantly, with either media groups having a fit or the government proposing/debating some bill, but one thing I've noticed is that many of the figures I hear regarding the "piracy problem" seem pretty poor as indicators.

While everyone agrees, and it is trivial to show, that plenty of people violate copyright/trademark law, how bad is piracy really for the company's legitimate economic interests?

Specifically, a common figure to hear is the number of duplicated works distributed via various networks, but obviously this does not indicate how much buisness was lost by the rights owner- clearly the frequently used figures multiplying sales/license prices/profit times illegal distributions does not provide any indication of the loss to the buisness due to piracy.

Similarly, I hear often how producers of video games are shying away from the PC due to the claimed increase in piracy rates vs consoles, but again: rates of piracy don't establish actual losses due to piracy.  How much money are the rights holders loosing actually?  Obviously it is not an economical decision to simply avoid creating a product due to any rate of piracy absent actual harm, but usually the figures and arguments you hear, even from the producers themselves, refer to the former rather than the later- as if the meer fact that someone is not paying them for accessing their product has any harm to their buisness.

Does anyone have any insight into this issue?

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Invisibleiamnotadream
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: johnm214]
    #14918633 - 08/14/11 12:55 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

I took 6 Xannies and a half a gram of Texas llello and it dint so shit


It was good shit, I could tell. I just dint get where I wanted to be becauae faggot tolerance

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Offlinelacma50
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: iamnotadream]
    #14918729 - 08/14/11 01:19 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

iamnotadream said:
I took 6 Xannies and a half a gram of Texas llello and it dint so shit


It was good shit, I could tell. I just dint get where I wanted to be becauae faggot tolerance



:chriswalken:
Your views on how the entertainment industry is being affected by piracy are so thought-provoking and insightful that it's uncanny.


--------------------




"Any rational person changes their mind when confronted with new evidence."



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OfflineThe Influence
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: johnm214]
    #14918768 - 08/14/11 01:38 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

johnm214 said:
Piracy is in the news pretty much constantly, with either media groups having a fit or the government proposing/debating some bill, but one thing I've noticed is that many of the figures I hear regarding the "piracy problem" seem pretty poor as indicators.

While everyone agrees, and it is trivial to show, that plenty of people violate copyright/trademark law, how bad is piracy really for the company's legitimate economic interests?

Specifically, a common figure to hear is the number of duplicated works distributed via various networks, but obviously this does not indicate how much business was lost by the rights owner- clearly the frequently used figures multiplying sales/license prices/profit times illegal distributions does not provide any indication of the loss to the business due to piracy.

Similarly, I hear often how producers of video games are shying away from the PC due to the claimed increase in piracy rates vs consoles, but again: rates of piracy don't establish actual losses due to piracy.  How much money are the rights holders loosing actually?  Obviously it is not an economical decision to simply avoid creating a product due to any rate of piracy absent actual harm, but usually the figures and arguments you hear, even from the producers themselves, refer to the former rather than the later- as if the meer fact that someone is not paying them for accessing their product has any harm to their business.

Does anyone have any insight into this issue?



I would think they lose alot of money. There are some variables to consider. Is the movie/game pre-release or older when pirated? Is it being pirated by an individual for personal use or for distribution? Is it a major motion picture or some low budget flick/game? Lets take for instance a street peddler (I've ran into one myself in the parking lot of a mall in Madison, WI)he is selling pre-release pirated movies. Lets say Avatar (a pretty big hit)now he is selling these pre-release copies for $10. So now people know they can get this movie that cheap they are not going to the theater to see it nor buying the DVD, and the actors, producers, and theaters are seeing zero percent of the peddler's revenue. That's a pretty big loss, and that's only one pirate, take into account how many there aren (I dont know how many just trying to give examples), and Im sure there are no real accurate statistics on monetary losses because the pirater only needs to download once and then make as many copies from his own burning device so there is no telling how many copies he made and re-distributed.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: johnm214]
    #14919351 - 08/14/11 05:53 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Before I get into this, I want to be clear that I see piracy as theft.  I am not trying to justify piracy.

> I would think they lose alot of money.

I disagree.  They don't lose any money.  The vast majority of pirated items would not have been purchased had piracy not been available, thus no money has been lost.  If I pirate a $10k software package, the publisher did not lose $10k, because I would have never spent $10k on the software package.  The same logic applies to movies, music, books, or anything else that is commonly pirated.  If I pirate a new movie, and I like it, I go to the theater to watch it for the big screen experience.  If it is a DVD that I like, I purchase the DVD for all of the extras, and because my vanity likes to see another DVD sitting on my shelf.  For music, I end up going to the concert to see them live, plus I buy the CD because I want to support the artist.

> Does anyone have any insight into this issue?

I read a book called "Hackers" back in the mid-80's.  It was actually a non-fictional history of early computer programmers, mostly at MIT, not a book about breaking into computer systems.  One of the stories in the book talked about a computer program on paper tape back in the early days of computing.  The company producing it was charging $1000 a copy (which is a lot of money in the 1950's/1960's).  The software was buggy, slow, and expensive.  The guys at MIT wrote their own version of the software and gave it away for free.  Not only was their version free, but it was smaller, faster, and didn't crash.  To their amazement, people started to send them money ($20 here, $100 there) for their efforts.

They realized that people will pay what they see as fair market value for software rather than copy it, even when copying it is trivial.  Piracy doesn't occur until the item being copied is priced higher than fair market value.  The recording industry has been found guilty of price fixing, which causes goods to be priced above their fair market value, thus in my mind, the recording industry is guilty of creating their own problem.  I also see the $0.99 iTunes track, and the billions that people are paying to Apple each year, as another example against the recording industry.

People will pay fair market value, based upon supply and demand, rather than copy.  If there is a problem with people making copies, then it is probably because somebody is pricing things above fair market value, illegally price fixing, monopolistic (Microsoft), or illegally constraining supply (anti-competitive agreements), etc.


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.

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InvisibleHeavyToilet
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: Seuss]
    #14920868 - 08/14/11 01:17 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
For music, I end up going to the concert to see them live, plus I buy the CD because I want to support the artist.





One other thing which I've done before is donating directly to the artist. Since artists make only a tiny fraction from a sold CD, donating $10 would probably be the equivalent of having half a dozen, or a dozen CDs sold (or perhaps even more).

I just wish more artists had this option on their websites, as it currently seems pretty rare.

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InvisibleDawks
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: johnm214]
    #14921769 - 08/14/11 05:01 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

>So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really?


Not at all. Take a look at this graphic:



As a person who makes a living off the software industry I must say that piracy has the opposite effect that everybody says that it does. One of the earlier applications I tried to market was full of anti-piracy crap: HWID authenticators, runtime encryptions, the works.

After all the "pirate-proofing" what was a left with? a buggy piece of crap compared to the original that didn't even end up selling well.

The next big application I marketed had nothing more than a simple key based authentication and while my heart sank to see it show up on a torrent website something odd happened. More people started buying my program, and more and more. :eek:

People grow to love applications they pirate, eventually some of them start to want support, access to member forums and regular updates to patch buggy code. So they buy, and get a program they can rely on. Everybody is happy.

I can also vouch for this from the consumers point of view. I've "pirated" a few games here and there and played on the "unofficial" servers. Doing so let me grow fond of the game to the point where I wanted to play on more populated servers with less cheaters. So I bought the game. I probably never would have done so otherwise, not even if the game was released as shareware.

It kinda makes my blood boil every time I see these large software firms complaining about "software piracy" hurting their bottom line. Fuck that shit, it's hurting your PROJECTED bottom line, huge fucking difference. Grow the fuck up you greedy asswipes. ( i mad )

In conclusion I think piracy is a good thing as it lets people get what they want when they want it. It has no little to impact on sales whatsoever. (all the above goes for the movie and music industries as well, with some minor differences).


--------------------
date ; unzip ; strip ; touch ; grep ; finger ; mount ; fsck ; more ; yes ; umount ; sleep

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OfflineJT
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: Dawks]
    #14922073 - 08/14/11 06:16 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

I think it really depends upon the medium. Programs like photoshop are around $500 for an individual license. At that price, I seriously doubt that many individuals could afford to purchase it. Individuals pirating the software are not cutting much into corporate profit. In fact, if they choose to start a company that does graphic design after learning photoshop on pirated software, they might even be more likely to purchase a corporate license (you can't run a company on pirated software, you're gonna get caught, and you can list it as a business expense and get a tax write off anyways).

The music industry, on the other hand, definitely does suffer. I haven't bought a CD since 2008. If I bought a CD every time I wanted to listen to new music, i'd be hundreds in the hole. I guess pirated music does increase a band's popularity though and increase chances of ticket sales...

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OfflineFocusHawaii
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: johnm214]
    #14923290 - 08/14/11 10:38 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

If we assume the current metric used to calculate losses from piracy is, a position that seems quite solid, it begs the question of how can it be improved. Any ideas?

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Invisiblejohnm214
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: Seuss]
    #14923487 - 08/14/11 11:23 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:

> I would think they lose alot of money.

I disagree.  They don't lose any money.  The vast majority of pirated items would not have been purchased had piracy not been available, thus no money has been lost.  If I pirate a $10k software package, the publisher did not lose $10k, because I would have never spent $10k on the software package. 




At some price point the pirates could have purchased the media and are potential buyers. How do you justify going so far as to say no lose occurs?  Is the illegal use class mutually exclusive with the class that purchases such media or do you claim the monetary benefits of illegal use outweigh the losses in sales?

Since we all seem to agree the figures often used that count every instance of duplication as a lost sale are baseless, why are they being thrown around by the industry, media, and legislators?  Are some of these people acting in good faith, know something we dont, et cet, or are they all just cynically lieing through statistics?  (more to the point, are the people who hear these figures in the legislature, public, industry, really that naive to believe the unjustified statistics?)


Either way, why are the publishers saying they don't want to make games available for PC because of piracy?  Clearly it doesn't harm them that people pirate their games per se, but it seems like they have no actual idea what their losses are.  It almost seems like they really would rather loose the money gained from making a game available on a platform rather than know people are using their product illegally.  The statements I've heard from publishers really seem to lead to this conclusion.  What's going on here?

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: johnm214]
    #14924475 - 08/15/11 05:45 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

> At some price point the pirates could have purchased the media and are potential buyers.

Perhaps.  I often pirate something I am thinking about, if they don't have a try-before-you-buy program, to see if it is worth the money.  If the software is something I am going to use, and it isn't ridiculously expensive, then I buy it.  There are some things that I wouldn't install even if they were given to me free (Microsoft Visual C++ as an example).

> Since we all seem to agree the figures often used that count every instance of duplication as a lost sale are baseless, why are they being thrown around by the industry, media, and legislators?

The recording industry has huge pockets and pays the legislators well, thus the legislators will suck recording industry cock rather than represent their constituents.  I well remember Orrin Hatch screaming that the recording industry should be able to remotely destroy your computer, without due process, if they suspected you of pirating... until somebody pointed out that his campaign website server was hosting warez... then he quickly shut up.

The recording industry is obviously going to use the worst case for lost profits to show damage.  They don't even care about a completely copy... if you take a single byte of pirated data, then you are a lost sale.

> Either way, why are the publishers saying they don't want to make games available for PC because of piracy?

I suspect they have other reasons, but because of marketing or contractual obligations (for example, Sony might give the publisher a discount if they agree not to release to any platform other than Sony PS), they pretend that pirates are responsible.  It can also be difficult and costly to release a game on multiple platforms.  Often, game consoles have a software development kit (SDK) that has libraries released by the console manufacturer that would have to be implemented on other platforms.  Maintaining bug fixes, testing, and tech support across platforms is also an issue.  If most PC gamers also have a console device, then releasing a game for only the console device doesn't lose many sales and can have a significant reduction on development and support costs.  Plus, you can blame the pirates whenever somebody complains.


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.

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OfflineChuangTzu
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: Seuss]
    #14926967 - 08/15/11 04:38 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
if you take a single byte of pirated data, then you are a lost sale.





Yeah, despite the fact that since there are only 256 possible bytes, they must all be a part of some copyrighted work by now.

The idea of a copyright is archaic, is illogical (every copyrighted work can be represented as a number, the unauthorized transmission of which is a violation), damages freedom, stifles innovation, and is a net burden on society (i.e. has the opposite of its supposed intended effect).

Patents too.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #14927202 - 08/15/11 05:36 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

> Patents too.

Don't get me started... :rofl:


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.

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Offlineimachavel
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: JT]
    #14929085 - 08/15/11 10:57 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

JT said:
I think it really depends upon the medium. Programs like photoshop are around $500 for an individual license. At that price, I seriously doubt that many individuals could afford to purchase it. Individuals pirating the software are not cutting much into corporate profit. In fact, if they choose to start a company that does graphic design after learning photoshop on pirated software, they might even be more likely to purchase a corporate license (you can't run a company on pirated software, you're gonna get caught, and you can list it as a business expense and get a tax write off anyways).

The music industry, on the other hand, definitely does suffer. I haven't bought a CD since 2008. If I bought a CD every time I wanted to listen to new music, i'd be hundreds in the hole. I guess pirated music does increase a band's popularity though and increase chances of ticket sales...




:lol: no wonder I never use it. Is there a linux photo shop equivelent?


--------------------
:kingcrankey: I did not say to edit my signature soulidarity! Now forever I will never remember what I said about understanding the secrets of the universe by paying attention to subtleties!

:facepalm: I'm never giving you the password again. Jerk

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OfflineHumility
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: imachavel]
    #14942586 - 08/18/11 01:30 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Answer has already been given.


I'd never pay for digital media, ever.


They'll never be able to stop "pirating" ever.


It's done.  Let the dinosaurs die and the entrepreneurs put their thinking caps on and make that skrilla.  The days of going to a store to pay $10-20 for a CD don't exist anymore period.  End of story.


--------------------

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Invisiblebadchad
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: johnm214]
    #14946401 - 08/19/11 08:55 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

I'd be curious to see the numbers on this.  I've done (some light) professional research on consumer products before.  I was abso-fucking-lutely amazed at how detailed the data were.  The reason is pretty simple:  With a UPC code, you can (literally) keep track of every single item that's ever sold.  Ever.

Professional marketing organizations (e.g. market forecasters) can break down product sales by zip code, time of day, store type, etc.  You name it, they can do it.  They then sell these reports for upwards of 5-30K, and if you have a product, you can review said reports and determine whether to go for it or not.

My point is that these data have to exist. 

For those in academia, I urge you to go to: http://academic.marketresearch.com/

Begin typing in keywords like DVD sales, CD sales, "piracy" etc.  The numbers and data you can find are absolutely intriguing for some products.  There may be reports on "piracy" but I can't access them since I'm no longer an academic.

I would encourage anyone to post the data here, in an effort to develop some objective discussion.


--------------------
...the whole experience is (and is as) a profound piece of knowledge.  It is an indellible experience; it is forever known.  I have known myself in a way I doubt I would have ever occurred except as it did.

Smith, P.  Bull. Menninger Clinic (1959) 23:20-27; p. 27.

...most subjects find the experience valuable, some find it frightening, and many say that is it uniquely lovely.

Osmond, H.  Annals, NY Acad Science (1957) 66:418-434; p.436

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Invisiblekoraks
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: badchad]
    #14946457 - 08/19/11 09:16 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

The interesting thing is not so much how much the software and media industries 'loose' as a result of pirating - the really interesting thing is how media + software development and distribution work in a world where digital access to them is effectively instant and free. The old model was that all investments in development and logistical + organizational overhead would be recouped through sales of licenses or copies. With free and easy access to the same media, that business model is threatened, and that is the core of the current debate. So in my opinion the important issue is not to what extent the currently used business model suffers from the radical changes the world around it has undergone - we can agree that the damage is extensive, and sufficient reason to reconsider the business model. So the heart of the matter is: what will work in today's world?

Seuss' example of the MIT students receiving money for their free-to-use remake of an expensive application could just as well be explained from the guilt the users felt for not having paid anything, in the face of the presence of a hellishly expensive alternative. It remains to be seen if the same dynamic still works if there is no expensive alternative, but only free ones. Are people still spontaneously going to send money to the developers? The annual troubles of the wikipedia foundation come to mind, where they have to actively ask for donations in order to keep the organization running. There's not a lot of spontaneity in there.

So please help me out here - how am I going to make a living as a writer/developer/musician/graphics artist/movie maker in today's digital world? Your thoughts please!

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: koraks]
    #14946527 - 08/19/11 09:36 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

The annual troubles of the wikipedia foundation come to mind, where they have to actively ask for donations in order to keep the organization running. There's not a lot of spontaneity in there.




Is wiki really having troubles making ends meet, or do they simply advertise for donations so that people know that wiki survives on donations?  (I don't know...)


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.

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Invisiblekoraks
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: Seuss]
    #14946585 - 08/19/11 09:52 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

I'm not sure either, but apart from that, I doubt that many open-source projects/teams receive many spontaneous donations. And if they do, it's probably only the well-known ones; not so much the highly specialist ones with a smaller user base (or perhaps I'm dead wrong, and it is especially the specialist ones that could possibly survive because of their closely-knit ties with their user base?)

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: So, how much does piracy hurt legitimate movie and application sales, really? [Re: koraks]
    #14946795 - 08/19/11 10:47 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

> I'm not sure either, but apart from that, I doubt that many open-source projects/teams receive many spontaneous donations.

I've personally donated to several, and I know the shroomery has donated to a few as well.  I'm not sure how much they make, and certainly they don't make as much as they put in, but I know that donations do flow to opensource projects.


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.

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