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OfflineJohnnyRespect
Nomadic Wanderer
Registered: 04/17/03
Posts: 676
Loc: East Coast
Last seen: 17 years, 1 month
Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so..
    #1491634 - 04/25/03 02:07 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Greets,
Since we first heard the rumblings coming from the White Houses war drums, liberals have been shouting and protesting how the war is an obvious ploy by that Texan Oil Tycoon Bush to get some more oil for the US. They state that it will boost our economy. Well, for that to happen, we'd have to make money by taking the oil. Let me explain why that will never happen.

The estimated output of Iraqi oil fields is 1.1 million barrels per day. The price of cude, as of today, is 26.65$. If we multiply those to see just how much money selling all of that oil would be, we obtain a figure of 29,315,000$ per day. That is how much all of Iraq's oil output would be SOLD for, this doesn't include the cost of business that would subtract from the profit.

Now, Bush has told us, and congress, that the cost of the war is eighty billion dollars (thats 80,000,000,000$). If we take the total amount that JUST the war (not the humanitarian aide, etc) cost us and divide by the amount of money we would in a "perfect" business make from the oil fieldsper day, we can see how many days it would take us to earn back the 80 bil we spent. 80,000,000,000 / 29,315,000 = 2728.978 days to earn back our money. divide that by 365 (for years) and we get 7.476 years. So, if we had a business plan that is impossible (pure profit, no cost/overhead), if we took EVERY, SINGLE penny that the nation of Iraq earned from selling it's oil, then in seven and a half years we'd have made back JUST what it cost us to fight the war. That sounds,to me, like a pretty big hole in the "war for oil" theory.


Pz

johnny R


--------------------
As I felt the soft cool mud squish between my toes, I thought, Man, these are not very good shoes!


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1491846 - 04/25/03 03:11 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Adding more oil to the supply drops the price per barrel, and in turn lowers the cost of gasoline, which in turn raises the real income of American consumers who now have more money due to the increase in real income which they can spend on other goods. This bolsters the economy and GWB is a hero.


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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1491872 - 04/25/03 03:27 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

This naturally would be counteracted by the cost of going to war through taxation, but it wil be likely be "hiddien" from taxpayers through deficit spending. I don't know much about the oil industry so I couldn't even begin to predict a price change. The real income effect that a drop in oil prices could potentially be greter than $80 bil, though I doubt it, at least not this year anyway.


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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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Offlineatomikfunksoldier
T'was born oftrue in the yearof the cock!

Registered: 04/07/03
Posts: 1,500
Loc: a human-infested anthill
Last seen: 16 years, 9 months
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1492023 - 04/25/03 05:09 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

umm...since when do wars cost money? i mean sure...they cost money...but who where does that money go to? the american government? YOU GUESSED IT!! YOU WIN A BILLION DOLLARS!


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enjoy the entertaining indentity i have constructed for you while you can.


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OfflineJohnnyRespect
Nomadic Wanderer
Registered: 04/17/03
Posts: 676
Loc: East Coast
Last seen: 17 years, 1 month
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: atomikfunksoldier]
    #1492161 - 04/25/03 08:24 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I_FART - Um, yea, the econ doesn't work that way exactly. We still have 80 billion dollars to pay for the war.





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As I felt the soft cool mud squish between my toes, I thought, Man, these are not very good shoes!


Edited by Rono (04/25/03 03:13 PM)


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1492429 - 04/25/03 10:54 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

You showed me, not to mention all of my economics professors.



Wait. No. That is exactly the opposite of what happened. Do you really want a lesson on the real income effect and deficit spending, or do you maybe want to accept that somebody who is working on a degree in economics may have some clue as to what they are talking about? Either is fine with me.


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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


Edited by Rono (04/25/03 03:14 PM)


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InvisibleBuddha5254
addict
Registered: 04/23/00
Posts: 532
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1492693 - 04/25/03 12:27 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

That is what their output is now. What about after Haliburton's subsidiary comes in, repairs infrastructure, and is fully able to exploit the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world? They will be exporting a hell of a lot more than 1.1 million barrels a day! More oil=drop in prices. Drop in gas prices here means stimulation for the economy through war. Gas is the "oil" of our economic machine.


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OfflineJohnnyRespect
Nomadic Wanderer
Registered: 04/17/03
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Buddha5254]
    #1493215 - 04/25/03 02:52 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I wish I could be a liberal and play on "what if's" and stuff. Who the fuck cares, Iraq is ours, and if you don't like it, you should pay .20$ more for Iraq. As for I_F_B getting his degree in econonmics, my GF has her masters in Econ and one in accounting, so if you'd like to debate, i'd be happy to let you talk to her.


Pz

Johnny R


--------------------
As I felt the soft cool mud squish between my toes, I thought, Man, these are not very good shoes!


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
Stranger

Registered: 06/25/02
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1493248 - 04/25/03 03:02 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Good for her. But I am not debating with her am I? It was you who challenged what I said and made a rediculous claim about something which you obviously have no clue about. Backup what you said if you think you're right. Otherwise don't bother posting a reply, because I will entertain nothing else but.


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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


Edited by I_Fart_Blue (04/25/03 03:23 PM)


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OfflineRonoS
DSYSB since '01
Male User Gallery

Registered: 01/26/01
Posts: 16,256
Loc: Calgary, Alberta
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1493295 - 04/25/03 03:15 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Both of you need to play nice...I have no problems banning either one or both of you if this turns into a flame fest.


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"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1493330 - 04/25/03 03:24 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

You're imagining things, Rono.


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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,244
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1493337 - 04/25/03 03:24 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

You're imagining things, Rono.



Power has not been good for him.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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OfflineAzmodeus
Seeker

Registered: 11/27/02
Posts: 3,392
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1493352 - 04/25/03 03:27 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Fucking rono brandishes his modly powers again....
Does it make you feel powerful to threaten people with banning?


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"Know your Body - Know your Mind - Know your Substance - Know your Source.

Lest we forget. "


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
Stranger

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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1493360 - 04/25/03 03:29 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Well in his defence, I did edit the flames out of my post. They were good too.... :frown:


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,244
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1493366 - 04/25/03 03:30 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

They may have been. That doesn't change the fact that the mod powers seems to have not been good for him.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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InvisibleEvolving
Resident Cynic

Registered: 10/01/02
Posts: 5,385
Loc: Apt #6, The Village
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Azmodeus]
    #1493369 - 04/25/03 03:31 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Rono is not only powerful, he is wise too...

and compassionate and generous and Canadian.


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To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.'  Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence.  Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains.  Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,244
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Evolving]
    #1493374 - 04/25/03 03:33 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I'll buy the Canadian part...... but as for the rest......
**pre-edited for Rono**

:grin:


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
Stranger

Registered: 06/25/02
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1493378 - 04/25/03 03:34 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Bah, he's just doin his job, enforcing the rules of the forum. I don't fault him for that. I've actually been fairly vocal about them not being enforced. I figured I'd probably catch some hell for my post. Rono happened to catch it faster than I thought he would.


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,244
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1493392 - 04/25/03 03:38 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Bah, he's just doin his job, enforcing the rules of the forum. I don't fault him for that. I've actually been fairly vocal about them not being enforced. I figured I'd probably catch some hell for my post. Rono happened to catch it faster than I thought he would.



While I suspect he'd be fun to party with, I think he's not the man for this job. And I voted for him!


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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Invisibleslime_R
The Good Doctor

Registered: 04/20/02
Posts: 858
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1493469 - 04/25/03 03:52 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

You get'em farty.

Getting oil will definitly help our economy a lot. To put it simply, the surplus of oil will lower the price of oil thus making us pay less for it. We will then have that savings to spend in other sectors of the market. So the money I save on oil will be spent on a new pair of whitey tighties at wal-mart which will be part of somebodies paycheck which they will spend somewhere else and on and on. It multiplies.

Also if we are spending money on the war for, say, a couple jets, the government pays boeing for them which in turn pays all the american workers at boeing. We're giving ourselves money.


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OfflineRonoS
DSYSB since '01
Male User Gallery

Registered: 01/26/01
Posts: 16,256
Loc: Calgary, Alberta
Last seen: 9 months, 14 days
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1493477 - 04/25/03 03:54 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

While I suspect he'd be fun to party with, I think he's not the man for this job. And I voted for him! 


Looks like another case of someone you voted for turned out to be an asshole... :grin:  If you kids want to put it to a vote I would more than happy to step down as mod of the political forum..


--------------------
"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"


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Invisiblez@z.com
Libertarian
Registered: 10/13/02
Posts: 2,876
Loc: ATL
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Rono]
    #1493487 - 04/25/03 03:57 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I think rono is doing a good job. I have yet to see this mythical abuse of power.


--------------------
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis

"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
Stranger

Registered: 06/25/02
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: slime_R]
    #1493490 - 04/25/03 03:57 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

slime_R to the rescue! Thanks for the backup.


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,244
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1493760 - 04/25/03 05:33 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Quote:

While I suspect he'd be fun to party with, I think he's not the man for this job. And I voted for him! 


Looks like another case of someone you voted for turned out to be an asshole... :grin:  If you kids want to put it to a vote I would more than happy to step down as mod of the political forum.. 



Whoa there happy.... I never said you were or are an asshole. I aslo said you'd probably even be fun to party with.

Also, you flamed yourself. Time for a ban perhaps?


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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OfflineJohnnyRespect
Nomadic Wanderer
Registered: 04/17/03
Posts: 676
Loc: East Coast
Last seen: 17 years, 1 month
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1493837 - 04/25/03 05:58 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Wow. How interesting. I_F_D I posted facts and figures, all you said was "you are wrong, prove you are right". How about this, if my facts and figures are wrong, prove, using numbers and stastical data or approved accounting practices, how I am. I know that most lefties don't like doing stuff like that, but try, won't you? As for banning me, I don't know why, if I broke a rule, I do apologize :-)


pz

johnny R


--------------------
As I felt the soft cool mud squish between my toes, I thought, Man, these are not very good shoes!


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,244
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1493870 - 04/25/03 06:10 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Hey Johnny...
How about you stop using that piece of crap quick reply "feature?"


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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OfflineEchoVortex
(hard) member
Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 859
Last seen: 11 years, 9 months
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1494156 - 04/25/03 08:52 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Iraq has PROVEN oil reserves of 115 billion barrels, with some estimates of potential reserves going up to 300 billion barrels. This is second only to Saudi Arabia.

Even if the direct and/or indirect involvement of the US government in Iraq's oil industry results in savings of as little as $1 per barrel, over the course of time that will result in anywhere from $115 billion to $300 billion in savings for US consumers of that oil. Not all of it will be sold to the US of course, but you can be pretty sure most of it will. Anyway, this is a very conservative estimate of the economic advantage this gives to the US. In reality, the US will probably sell the oil itself for a number of years in order to "pay back *liberation* costs", getting quite a bit of money that way, and then hand it over to an Iraqi puppet government that will basically set pricing according to US wishes at any given time.

Even if you were right that this thing will result in a net economic loss for the US, Bush couldn't care less. The war was paid with taxpayer money and with deficit spending (which you'll pay for eventually with inflation), the profits will go his friends in industry who get the contracts in Iraq. Yet another transfer of wealth from the middle class to the top 5%.


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
Stranger

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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1494466 - 04/25/03 11:58 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

I_F_D I posted facts and figures, all you said was "you are wrong, prove you are right.How about this, if my facts and figures are wrong, prove, using numbers and stastical data or approved accounting practices, how I am.




First of all, the only fact that you posted was the cost of the war, which in and of itself is highly suspect. Do you even have a source for the 1.1 million barrels a day? The rest was a hypothetical corporation in which you assumed the impossible. Your figures were completely worthless as they assume pure profit. However the fact that you even attempted to prove your point through the use of a company goes to show that you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about.

The "You are wrong, prove you are right" was directed at your post claiming that

Quote:

I_FART -  the econ doesn?t work that way exactly.




I never claimed that you facts and figures were wrong in the first place. You can multiply and divide just fine, but your numbers are completely meaningless and worthless. They represent no real information whatsoever. GAAP doesn?t even figure into this, it?s a straight up economics problem. Economics and accounting have little to do with each other. My response was nothing but straight up microeconomic theory, which you essentially called crap. slime_R, another economics major also chimed in, backing up what I said, though I see you failed to respond to him.

You want me to prove you wrong? You really want that? Okey Dokey.

First off, I don?t know where you got 1.1 million barrels of oil per day. That figure is flat out wrong. According to the  Engergy Information Administration Iraq?s sustainable oil output is 
Quote:

at no higher than about 2.8-2.9 million barrels per day, with net export potential of around 2.3-2.5 million barrels per day. 


  Source.
The data suggests that prior to the war Iraq was producing between  1.7 mln bpd, though this dropped during February and March as well.

The US will seek to get Iraqi oil production up to it?s full potential. Ceteris paribus, the increased supply in oil will drop prices in gasoline as seen below in a simplified supply/demand graph.


The supply shifts from S1 to S2, dropping the equilibrium Price from PE1 to PE2, and increasing the equilibrium Quantity from QE1 to QE2. As gas prices are highly inelastic in the short run (i.e., it takes an increase or in this case decrease in gas prices to severely affect the equilibrium quantity), even a fairly large drop in gasoline prices will not increase QE very much. Since the price is fairly inelastic and consumers will not consume much more gasoline they have more money to spend on other products, i.e., increasing their real-income. The real-income effect is a change in purchasing power when other things being constant, the price consumers pay for a product increases or decreases. When the price increases, real-income drops, and when the price falls real-income rises.

Say for instance gas prices are at $1.65 a gallon for regular unleaded. Somebody with what we will arbitrarily call an "average" tank size of 17 gallons* fills up their tank say on average 1.3 times per week when it hits 1/5 of tank (13.6 gallons). Weekly gas expenditure is equal to $29.17 = 1.3(1.65*13.6). This comes out to $126.40 monthly and $1516.84 annually. Now say gas prices drop by 50 cents, and the same consumer with the same vehicle now fills up an average of 1.4 times per week. Weekly gas expenditure is now equal to $21.90. This comes out to $94.88 monthly and 1138.60 annually. Real-income is increased by $31.52 monthly or $378.24 annually. For somebody who drives say an SUV who fills up say 22 gallons 1.3 times a week, their real income increases nearly $744 a year. 

Lets be conservative and say the average increase in real-income is $233 per capita in this case. According to the US census bureau, the current population is 290,814,233. That can be verified  here.  So to calculate the increase real income of the country, multiply 290,814,233 by $233...comes out to $67,759,716,289. Even a price drop of say $.10 (roughly a savings of $90) could increase the real-income over $26 billion. To counteract the $80,000,000,000 in one year, real-income would need to rise just $275.08, which equates to roughly a $0.28 price drop ($0.28 =$275.08/52/1.4/13.6).

Through this illustration it is easy to see that even a small drop in gas prices can trigger a large increase in the real-income of the American consumer. This is essentially "free" money, money which the consumer can spend on other products. Money which can bolster the economy.

I think that about does it. This lesson was free, the next one will cost you.  :wink: 

*This is probably a fairly conservative figure considering the size of SUV gas tanks (the Ford Excursion has a 44 gallon tank.). 

Edit: Fixed a typo.


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


Edited by I_Fart_Blue (04/26/03 01:16 AM)


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OfflineEchoVortex
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1494555 - 04/26/03 12:49 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

That was one of the finest posts ever put on this forum. You've raised the bar for all of us. In the future anybody who wants to be taken seriously in an economics debate here will have to display the same level of rigor.

Bravo.


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InvisibleBuddha5254
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1494632 - 04/26/03 01:26 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

So Johnny, you think that oil production will stay at present levels? That is what your whole argument is based upon. That will simply not happen.


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1495166 - 04/26/03 04:41 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

The $1 hike in gas prices have paid for the war, the future war and all damages caused to the US and by the US alone..

Lets not forget that with the rise in price of gas, workers and unions dont get any more money, their is no raise in overhead just a simple raise in price and inflation of proffits..

These added profits go to the oil and gas companies which controll the world and they in turn give it to the government to wage was against their competitors.

The US consumes an average of 25 million barrels per day. Lets say that every barrel creates 50 gallons of gas, thats 1.25 billion gallons, add to that an average one dollar price increase and youve got 1.25 Billion dollars pumped into the government every day.. Give 4 or 5 months and youve got hundreds of billions of dollars.

Ever notice that gas prices go up in times of great national spending? Do you really think that this is due to the stock market? No, its due to the fact that by adding just 5 cents to gas prices nation wide the added income over a year can pay off severe foreign policy blundering and kill off people who know to much.

This war has already been paid for by you and me every time we fill up our cars. I just hope to see some benefit out of it sometime soon..

Anyone remember what gas prices were a year ago?


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: GabbaDj]
    #1496353 - 04/26/03 06:41 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Um...no. You're not even close. I won't even begin to pick through all that garbage.

This war has been paid with deficit spending. Lets just leave it at that, ok?







Jeeze. Where do these folks come up with this stuff?  :confused: 


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


Edited by I_Fart_Blue (04/26/03 06:42 PM)


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1496356 - 04/26/03 06:43 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

gas goes in cars, cars drive you to the store to buy more gas, so you can drive to the store to buy more gas. is it just me.....or are we all under MIND CONTROL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Buddha5254]
    #1497577 - 04/27/03 11:42 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Johnny please respond to this critique of your argument. (from what I have said above)


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InvisibleBuddha5254
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Buddha5254]
    #1499319 - 04/28/03 01:02 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I guess you have realized the flaws in your argument?


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Buddha5254]
    #1499502 - 04/28/03 01:53 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

The reason why the looters were able to steal valubal paints, artifacts from the oldest know human cizilization, ancient texts, and lab strains of toxic viruses?

its because all the US troops were too busy guarding the oil fields.


--------------------
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: slime_R]
    #1500693 - 04/28/03 03:02 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

the more oil runs out the more valuble it becomes ...


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Kemist]
    #1500709 - 04/28/03 03:08 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Yah, supply vs. demand 101. I thought that was fairly obvious?


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1501037 - 04/28/03 04:57 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Well I don't think Johnny will be joining us anymore. Quel dommage!


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1501097 - 04/28/03 05:15 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Johnny(lost)respect! :grin:


--------------------
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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: RadioActiveSlug]
    #1501137 - 04/28/03 05:29 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

its because all the US troops were too busy guarding the oil fields.



Funny thing is, if they hadn't guarded the oil fields and they were torched, I suspect you'd bitch that the fields should have been guarded instead of the museums.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1501142 - 04/28/03 05:30 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

You don't find it even a little suspicious that the only building that WAS being guarded was the ministry of oil?...


--------------------
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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1501150 - 04/28/03 05:32 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

No I don't as it was stated before the troops went in that the oil infrastructure was going to be looked out for. The Ministry happens to be a part of that.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1501161 - 04/28/03 05:36 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Even after saying that you think that it's not "All about the oil"...


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1501186 - 04/28/03 05:46 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Fuck ancient antiquities from the cradle of civilization....
Anyone hear of the US soldiers caught looting from a museaum? (sorry, lost source)


Oil is only the fringe benefit.


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Azmodeus]
    #1501188 - 04/28/03 05:48 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

:grin: :grin: :grin: :grin: :grin:

It's funny to watch people turn tail and run from this here because they've been played the fool. Oh well. You've got to have big brass ones to play in this forum. There needs to be some sort of warning "Your cajones must be this big to ride".


--------------------
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1501203 - 04/28/03 05:51 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Hey Spacely, see if you can find a post from me where I say oil is NOT a factor.

I have said that oil is, it's just not a major one.

Take off your "I hate Bush" pin for a second and give this more than a "Canadian" second worth of thought. What sources of revenue do the Iraqis have other than oil that can feed the people there? Should we have allowed the fields to be torched depriving the Iraqis of income? Should we have allowed the fields to be torched which would cause enviromental damage?

Saddam torched the fields in Kuwait the last time. Had we let that happen again you'd probably be one of the first to bitch about that. Bush stated in advance of the first soldier stepping across the border that one of the things we would do would be to protect the oil infrastructure. We did so.

Is the Ministry not a part of the oil infrastructure?

How does that make it "all aboot oil?'


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1501205 - 04/28/03 05:52 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Well who seriously would think that the US would go over there to oust saddam out of the goodness of thier hearts?

Iraq shall pay for thier liberation for the next ten years out of oil money. Meanwhile american companies can well establish themselves there, so that once the bill is "paid", the puppet government can continue business as usual...



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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Azmodeus]
    #1501223 - 04/28/03 05:57 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Well some folks are just product of the America propoganda machine. They believe anything and everything they see on the nightly news. So it goes. Folks like that don't usually last long in here.


--------------------
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1501253 - 04/28/03 06:02 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

I have said that oil is, it's just not a major one.



 
Quote:

What sources of revenue do the Iraqis have other than oil that can feed the people there? 


I see...so Oil is their only source of income and is the only thing worth protecting in Iraq yet it is not a major factor for the U.S. being there... :confused:  Oh wait..it must have been for the WMD's (and we all know how many of those have turned up thus far)


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1501275 - 04/28/03 06:07 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Lame Rono, but not unexpected.

Were either of my statements inaccurate?

And where did I say it was the only thing worth protecting?


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1501279 - 04/28/03 06:08 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

What sources of revenue do the Iraqis have other than oil that can feed the people there




My apologies if I misread that...but it would seem that the U.S. felt that the Oil was the only thing worth preserving.


--------------------
"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"


Edited by Rono (04/28/03 06:11 PM)


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1501290 - 04/28/03 06:10 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Are you using that as an example of an inaccurate statement? If so, what other major sources of income do they have?


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1501472 - 04/28/03 07:02 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Funny thing is, if they hadn't guarded the oil fields and they were torched, I suspect you'd bitch that the fields should have been guarded instead of the museums.




Oh haha that is a funny thing! thanks for pointing that out!!!
what a funny thing!



--------------------
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: RadioActiveSlug]
    #1501487 - 04/28/03 07:08 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Apparently accurate though.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1501497 - 04/28/03 07:12 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

No...I was responding to "And where did I say it was the only thing worth protecting?"...to which it would seem you answered yourself previously by saying "What sources of revenue do the Iraqis have other than oil that can feed the people there ". I took that to mean that oil was the only thing worth protecting in Iraq...would that be innaccurate?


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: RadioActiveSlug]
    #1501520 - 04/28/03 07:18 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Funny thing is, if they hadn't guarded the oil fields and they were torched, I suspect you'd bitch that the fields should have been guarded instead of the museums.



No, that would never happen because I would never be naive enough to think that they would leave the oil fields open in the first place...even you should know that I would never say that, considering I'm the one that has been saying it's all about the oil from the start. You're grasping...


--------------------
"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"


Edited by Rono (04/28/03 07:28 PM)


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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1501562 - 04/28/03 07:31 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

No...I was responding to "And where did I say it was the only thing worth protecting?"...to which it would seem you answered yourself previously by saying "What sources of revenue do the Iraqis have other than oil that can feed the people there ". I took that to mean that oil was the only thing worth protecting in Iraq...would that be innaccurate?




Yes it is inaccurate. Hence the question mark at the end of my question.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1501569 - 04/28/03 07:32 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Quote:

Funny thing is, if they hadn't guarded the oil fields and they were torched, I suspect you'd bitch that the fields should have been guarded instead of the museums.



No, that would never happen because I would never be naive enough to think that they would leave the oil fields open in the first place...even you should know that I would never say that, considering I'm the one that has been saying it's all about the oil from the start. You're grasping...



Wrong again Bucko. The only grasping was here..... "it's ALL aboot the oil.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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OfflineRonoS
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1501580 - 04/28/03 07:36 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

And I stand by that...Oil is the MAIN reason..anything else is secondary...But it doesn't matter really, since no matter how many times you are shown that it's all about the oil, unless Dubya admits it himself you won't believe it.


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"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"


Edited by Rono (04/28/03 07:37 PM)


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1501605 - 04/28/03 07:40 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

At least you've gone from "It's ALL aboot the oil, to oil is the MAIN reason.

That wasn't so hard.... was it?

And you've never proven it to ALL about the oil, so why would I take your word for it?

I'd have to be pretty fucking stupid to do so.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1502328 - 04/28/03 11:07 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Oil prices at '03 low

OPEC's decision to raise the official output quota while reducing overproduction drops crude prices.
April 28, 2003: 4:01 PM EDT



NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell to new five-month lows on Monday as dealers voted bearishly on a convoluted OPEC output deal last week that is set to deliver less than a third of the promised 2 million barrel-per-day (bpd) cut.

Light crude prices in New York, declining for the fifth day running, lost 77 cents to finish at $25.49 a barrel, the lowest since November 2002, after falling 33 percent since mid-March. Brent crude oil fell 59 cents to $23.50 a barrel.

"The market has now had time to assess a very confusing OPEC decision last week and decided that it can only be bearish," Barclays Capital oil market analyst Kevin Norrish said. "The high levels of production will continue through May."

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed last Thursday to raise quota limits 900,000 bpd to 25.4 million bpd for 10 member countries, excluding Iraq, which would eliminate less of the current quota-busting output than traders expected.

OPEC presented its pact as a cut of 2 million bpd from average production in February and March of 27.4 million bpd, when Iraq pumped 1.9 million bpd, but Iran's minister conceded the 10 core members were only producing around 26 million bpd.

Effectively, that means actual production in June will only fall by some 600,000 bpd.

"The early reaction to OPEC's decision last week was that nothing had really changed," said Peter Beutel, president of oil trading consultant Cameron Hanover.

PROMPT CRUDE SEEN OVERSUPPLIED

Click here to check CNN/Money's commodities page


Analysts said OPEC effectively grabbed Iraq's market share after the U.S. campaign to unseat Saddam Hussein cut off Baghdad's nearly 2 million bpd of exports in mid-March.

When those supplies return to market, however, traders fear the current oversupply physical markets witness may quickly become more severe as the cartel struggles to re-integrate Baghdad into its quota system after a decade of sanctions.

OPEC is scheduled to meet in Qatar on June 11, when top officials have indicated strongly they may cut output again given expectations that Iraqi oil could be back by then.

Last week, the U.S. military said some southern oil fields had already restarted to feed local refineries.





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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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OfflineSkikid16
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1503092 - 04/29/03 03:06 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

First of all, the only fact that you posted was the cost of the war, which in and of itself is highly suspect. Do you even have a source for the 1.1 million barrels a day? The rest was a hypothetical corporation in which you assumed the impossible. Your figures were completely worthless as they assume pure profit. However the fact that you even attempted to prove your point through the use of a company goes to show that you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about.

The "You are wrong, prove you are right" was directed at your post claiming that


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I_FART - the econ doesn?t work that way exactly.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I never claimed that you facts and figures were wrong in the first place. You can multiply and divide just fine, but your numbers are completely meaningless and worthless. They represent no real information whatsoever. GAAP doesn?t even figure into this, it?s a straight up economics problem. Economics and accounting have little to do with each other. My response was nothing but straight up microeconomic theory, which you essentially called crap. slime_R, another economics major also chimed in, backing up what I said, though I see you failed to respond to him.

You want me to prove you wrong? You really want that? Okey Dokey.

First off, I don?t know where you got 1.1 million barrels of oil per day. That figure is flat out wrong. According to the Engergy Information Administration Iraq?s sustainable oil output is
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

at no higher than about 2.8-2.9 million barrels per day, with net export potential of around 2.3-2.5 million barrels per day.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source.
The data suggests that prior to the war Iraq was producing between 1.7 mln bpd, though this dropped during February and March as well.

The US will seek to get Iraqi oil production up to it?s full potential. Ceteris paribus, the increased supply in oil will drop prices in gasoline as seen below in a simplified supply/demand graph.


The supply shifts from S1 to S2, dropping the equilibrium Price from PE1 to PE2, and increasing the equilibrium Quantity from QE1 to QE2. As gas prices are highly inelastic in the short run (i.e., it takes an increase or in this case decrease in gas prices to severely affect the equilibrium quantity), even a fairly large drop in gasoline prices will not increase QE very much. Since the price is fairly inelastic and consumers will not consume much more gasoline they have more money to spend on other products, i.e., increasing their real-income. The real-income effect is a change in purchasing power when other things being constant, the price consumers pay for a product increases or decreases. When the price increases, real-income drops, and when the price falls real-income rises.

Say for instance gas prices are at $1.65 a gallon for regular unleaded. Somebody with what we will arbitrarily call an "average" tank size of 17 gallons* fills up their tank say on average 1.3 times per week when it hits 1/5 of tank (13.6 gallons). Weekly gas expenditure is equal to $29.17 = 1.3(1.65*13.6). This comes out to $126.40 monthly and $1516.84 annually. Now say gas prices drop by 50 cents, and the same consumer with the same vehicle now fills up an average of 1.4 times per week. Weekly gas expenditure is now equal to $21.90. This comes out to $94.88 monthly and 1138.60 annually. Real-income is increased by $31.52 monthly or $378.24 annually. For somebody who drives say an SUV who fills up say 22 gallons 1.3 times a week, their real income increases nearly $744 a year.

Lets be conservative and say the average increase in real-income is $233 per capita in this case. According to the US census bureau, the current population is 290,814,233. That can be verified here. So to calculate the increase real income of the country, multiply 290,814,233 by $233...comes out to $67,759,716,289. Even a price drop of say $.10 (roughly a savings of $90) could increase the real-income over $26 billion. To counteract the $80,000,000,000 in one year, real-income would need to rise just $275.08, which equates to roughly a $0.28 price drop ($0.28 =$275.08/52/1.4/13.6).

Through this illustration it is easy to see that even a small drop in gas prices can trigger a large increase in the real-income of the American consumer. This is essentially "free" money, money which the consumer can spend on other products. Money which can bolster the economy.

I think that about does it. This lesson was free, the next one will cost you.

*This is probably a fairly conservative figure considering the size of SUV gas tanks (the Ford Excursion has a 44 gallon tank.).

Edit: Fixed a typo.





Wow, that really was one of, if not the best post I've read.

Bravo buddy, bravo.


Hey JohnnyRespect, how come you haven't responded to this post, If I had to guess why, it'd be because sitting in front of his computer, or anywhere for that matter, is too painful after the new one I_F_B tore him.


--------------------
Re-Defeat Bush in '04


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Skikid16]
    #1503135 - 04/29/03 03:32 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Well thanks to both Skikid and Echo for the compliments on my post. This is what I love to do, and since I'm going to be doing this for the rest of my life its probably a good thing.

As far as Johnny is concerned, a little bird told me he will not be joining us in PA&L any more. While he told me why, I don't really believe him, and I suspect that my post may have had something to do with it. So it goes. Just another PA&L casulty of war.

Let me add, in no way do I think the war was completely about oil, though I think it was a factor, and that my analysis of the situation was one of my opinion on the matter. In fact this latest move by OPEC has left me dumbfounded, and though I get the feeling I'm not the only one, I'm just a student.


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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


Edited by I_Fart_Blue (04/29/03 03:35 AM)


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Anonymous

Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1512186 - 05/01/03 07:37 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I_Fart_blue: You are vicious in here,damn,good work,also damn good work


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Anonymous

Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1512288 - 05/01/03 08:07 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

While you address the manufacturing levels of the oil fairly well- what about the costs related to transporting it and extracting it from the ground? Getting oil from Iraq to the US is not cheap in any respect.. The oil wells will most likely need to be guarded, as there is huge unrest in Iraq. Gas companies do not drop their prices according to how much oil supply there is- not at a 1-1 ratio. After a raise in price, they never lower prices to the former price..

Just curious, mind you


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InvisibleEvolving
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Registered: 10/01/02
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: ]
    #1512363 - 05/01/03 08:25 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

The U.S. gets a relatively small percentage of it's oil from the mid-east. However, oil is a commodity traded on the world markets so the world supplies and prices are greatly affected by situations in the mid-east. Even if no extra oil comes from the region to the U.S., the benefits of a more stable and more abundant supply will benefit U.S. industry indirectly.


--------------------
To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.'  Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence.  Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains.  Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.


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OfflineRonoS
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Evolving]
    #1513266 - 05/02/03 12:14 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I agree...controlling the oil is more important than having it. The U.S. gets most of it's oil from Canada anyways...If the U.S. knows it can control the oil distribution for that region of the world, it forces the other countries to play ball with the U.S. or face the consequences...
The fact that it's a brilliant way to globalize the economy doesn't make it stink any less though...


--------------------
"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"


Edited by Rono (05/02/03 12:15 AM)


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: ]
    #1513691 - 05/02/03 02:23 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I am in no way an expert on any economic matters, especially of those of a microeconomic persuasion. Somebody who is adroit in the energy sector could obviously give you a much better response as this is a fairly complicated matter. Also let me note that nobody should in any way interpret what I say as a prediction. I don't want somebody bitching at me three months down the road because gas prices haven't come down. :wink:

Costs such as transportation and extraction, which are variable costs, are built into the price. This is the same with any product, as I am sure you know. You are always covering somebody else's cost. So a cost like guarding the wells would probably be passed on in cost depending on who is doing the guarding. Of course the cost will most likely be to American tax payers. Transportation from Iraq is costly yes, but at it has been pointed out, oil is a market commodity, so an increase in the overall supply of oil would drive market prices down.

As far as
Quote:

Gas companies do not drop their prices according to how much oil supply there is- not at a 1-1 ratio. After a raise in price, they never lower prices to the former price..




Gas companies do alter their prices according to the supply of oil, because the supply of oil determines the price of oil which affects the cost of manufacturing gasoline. Crude prices account for roughly forty-five percent of the cost of gasoline, I believe. There is a direct correlation between the two. But no, a one dollar drop in crude does not equate to a one dollar drop in gas prices. We'd have to go through some complicated statistical analysis to determine this, and to tell you the truth I cannot tell you exactly how much a change in one equates to a change in another. There are folks who can, and they get paid the big bucks. :wink: Gas companies do drop their prices. I am not sure how you arrived at the contrary position.  :confused: Gas companies are still bound by supply/demand laws as everybody else. Here is a chart from the Energy Information Administration showing the fluctuation of average gas prices nation-wide.



Here is the EIA's outlook for the summer if anybody is interested. Essentially the report says that demand is up, stores are down. They are saying on average, gas this summer will be $1.56. I have some seen some analysts projecting prices about a nickel or so lower. Hope that in some way answered your questions. 


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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OfflineBrugman
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1521042 - 05/05/03 03:01 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I'd just like to point out that I live in the same city as Rono, and we do not say "aboot" here.
Thanks.
The Canadian insults are very lame.
Your knowledge is impressive.. not your petty little flames though.
Again, just pointing crap out cuz I'm bored.  :tongue:


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Brugman]
    #1521078 - 05/05/03 03:23 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Sorry, I think you're thinking of luvdemshrooms. 'Twas not I who was making the "aboot" comments. I will take credit for the knowledge comment though, thanks.


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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Offlinetrev
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1521083 - 05/05/03 03:25 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

The U.S. gets most of it's oil from Canada anyways...


Shit look out guys youre next door to U.S.


--------------------

Anonymous #14
[quote]There are billions of people on this planet. The world does not revolve around the united states, moron. I hope terrorists crash their collective cocks into your asshole. [/quote]


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Registered: 11/29/01
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Brugman]
    #1521188 - 05/05/03 05:16 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

I'd just like to point out that I live in the same city as Rono, and we do not say "aboot" here.
Thanks.
The Canadian insults are very lame.
Your knowledge is impressive.. not your petty little flames though.
Again, just pointing crap out cuz I'm bored.  :tongue: 



Lighten up. Get a life. Develop a sense of humor.

Don't worry aboot it.

Edit: I was curious aboot when people started saying aboot here so I did a search aboot it. The search showed that people here were using aboot long before I found out aboot this place.

Blame South Park.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


Edited by luvdemshrooms (05/05/03 05:21 AM)


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OfflineAzmodeus
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1522103 - 05/05/03 04:26 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

...and i always thought it was americans who said "aboot".....i just didn't want to be a spelliing Nazi. :smirk:


--------------------
"Know your Body - Know your Mind - Know your Substance - Know your Source.

Lest we forget. "


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OfflineJohnnyRespect
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Registered: 04/17/03
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Azmodeus]
    #1527004 - 05/07/03 10:35 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Long Awaited Reply


I_F_B Since I don't have any formal education in economics, i'll just say this. If you think a five cent decrease in gas prices can replace the 80 billion dollars in our coffers, then the 28 cent national average drop in gas should have actually netted us 400 billion dollars (plus a wee bit) Is that what I'm seeing here?




--------------------
As I felt the soft cool mud squish between my toes, I thought, Man, these are not very good shoes!


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1527359 - 05/07/03 01:33 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Did I say that five cent decrease in gas prices could replace $80 billion? No. I can't say exaclty how much an x cent change in gas prices affects real income. There are incredible ammount of factors which gasoline affects, not to mention the factors that petroleum affects (And no I can't tell you that either, like I said, there are economists which get paid the big bucks to figure that sorta stuff out, I am not one of them). From what I have read, though I can't provide a link b/c it has been a few months, economists figure that a $10 per barrel increase or decrease affects GDP +/-.05%.


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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