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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,244
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Rono]
    #1501605 - 04/28/03 07:40 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

At least you've gone from "It's ALL aboot the oil, to oil is the MAIN reason.

That wasn't so hard.... was it?

And you've never proven it to ALL about the oil, so why would I take your word for it?

I'd have to be pretty fucking stupid to do so.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1502328 - 04/28/03 11:07 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Oil prices at '03 low

OPEC's decision to raise the official output quota while reducing overproduction drops crude prices.
April 28, 2003: 4:01 PM EDT



NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell to new five-month lows on Monday as dealers voted bearishly on a convoluted OPEC output deal last week that is set to deliver less than a third of the promised 2 million barrel-per-day (bpd) cut.

Light crude prices in New York, declining for the fifth day running, lost 77 cents to finish at $25.49 a barrel, the lowest since November 2002, after falling 33 percent since mid-March. Brent crude oil fell 59 cents to $23.50 a barrel.

"The market has now had time to assess a very confusing OPEC decision last week and decided that it can only be bearish," Barclays Capital oil market analyst Kevin Norrish said. "The high levels of production will continue through May."

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed last Thursday to raise quota limits 900,000 bpd to 25.4 million bpd for 10 member countries, excluding Iraq, which would eliminate less of the current quota-busting output than traders expected.

OPEC presented its pact as a cut of 2 million bpd from average production in February and March of 27.4 million bpd, when Iraq pumped 1.9 million bpd, but Iran's minister conceded the 10 core members were only producing around 26 million bpd.

Effectively, that means actual production in June will only fall by some 600,000 bpd.

"The early reaction to OPEC's decision last week was that nothing had really changed," said Peter Beutel, president of oil trading consultant Cameron Hanover.

PROMPT CRUDE SEEN OVERSUPPLIED

Click here to check CNN/Money's commodities page


Analysts said OPEC effectively grabbed Iraq's market share after the U.S. campaign to unseat Saddam Hussein cut off Baghdad's nearly 2 million bpd of exports in mid-March.

When those supplies return to market, however, traders fear the current oversupply physical markets witness may quickly become more severe as the cartel struggles to re-integrate Baghdad into its quota system after a decade of sanctions.

OPEC is scheduled to meet in Qatar on June 11, when top officials have indicated strongly they may cut output again given expectations that Iraqi oil could be back by then.

Last week, the U.S. military said some southern oil fields had already restarted to feed local refineries.





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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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OfflineSkikid16
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1503092 - 04/29/03 03:06 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

First of all, the only fact that you posted was the cost of the war, which in and of itself is highly suspect. Do you even have a source for the 1.1 million barrels a day? The rest was a hypothetical corporation in which you assumed the impossible. Your figures were completely worthless as they assume pure profit. However the fact that you even attempted to prove your point through the use of a company goes to show that you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about.

The "You are wrong, prove you are right" was directed at your post claiming that


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I_FART - the econ doesn?t work that way exactly.


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I never claimed that you facts and figures were wrong in the first place. You can multiply and divide just fine, but your numbers are completely meaningless and worthless. They represent no real information whatsoever. GAAP doesn?t even figure into this, it?s a straight up economics problem. Economics and accounting have little to do with each other. My response was nothing but straight up microeconomic theory, which you essentially called crap. slime_R, another economics major also chimed in, backing up what I said, though I see you failed to respond to him.

You want me to prove you wrong? You really want that? Okey Dokey.

First off, I don?t know where you got 1.1 million barrels of oil per day. That figure is flat out wrong. According to the Engergy Information Administration Iraq?s sustainable oil output is
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

at no higher than about 2.8-2.9 million barrels per day, with net export potential of around 2.3-2.5 million barrels per day.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source.
The data suggests that prior to the war Iraq was producing between 1.7 mln bpd, though this dropped during February and March as well.

The US will seek to get Iraqi oil production up to it?s full potential. Ceteris paribus, the increased supply in oil will drop prices in gasoline as seen below in a simplified supply/demand graph.


The supply shifts from S1 to S2, dropping the equilibrium Price from PE1 to PE2, and increasing the equilibrium Quantity from QE1 to QE2. As gas prices are highly inelastic in the short run (i.e., it takes an increase or in this case decrease in gas prices to severely affect the equilibrium quantity), even a fairly large drop in gasoline prices will not increase QE very much. Since the price is fairly inelastic and consumers will not consume much more gasoline they have more money to spend on other products, i.e., increasing their real-income. The real-income effect is a change in purchasing power when other things being constant, the price consumers pay for a product increases or decreases. When the price increases, real-income drops, and when the price falls real-income rises.

Say for instance gas prices are at $1.65 a gallon for regular unleaded. Somebody with what we will arbitrarily call an "average" tank size of 17 gallons* fills up their tank say on average 1.3 times per week when it hits 1/5 of tank (13.6 gallons). Weekly gas expenditure is equal to $29.17 = 1.3(1.65*13.6). This comes out to $126.40 monthly and $1516.84 annually. Now say gas prices drop by 50 cents, and the same consumer with the same vehicle now fills up an average of 1.4 times per week. Weekly gas expenditure is now equal to $21.90. This comes out to $94.88 monthly and 1138.60 annually. Real-income is increased by $31.52 monthly or $378.24 annually. For somebody who drives say an SUV who fills up say 22 gallons 1.3 times a week, their real income increases nearly $744 a year.

Lets be conservative and say the average increase in real-income is $233 per capita in this case. According to the US census bureau, the current population is 290,814,233. That can be verified here. So to calculate the increase real income of the country, multiply 290,814,233 by $233...comes out to $67,759,716,289. Even a price drop of say $.10 (roughly a savings of $90) could increase the real-income over $26 billion. To counteract the $80,000,000,000 in one year, real-income would need to rise just $275.08, which equates to roughly a $0.28 price drop ($0.28 =$275.08/52/1.4/13.6).

Through this illustration it is easy to see that even a small drop in gas prices can trigger a large increase in the real-income of the American consumer. This is essentially "free" money, money which the consumer can spend on other products. Money which can bolster the economy.

I think that about does it. This lesson was free, the next one will cost you.

*This is probably a fairly conservative figure considering the size of SUV gas tanks (the Ford Excursion has a 44 gallon tank.).

Edit: Fixed a typo.





Wow, that really was one of, if not the best post I've read.

Bravo buddy, bravo.


Hey JohnnyRespect, how come you haven't responded to this post, If I had to guess why, it'd be because sitting in front of his computer, or anywhere for that matter, is too painful after the new one I_F_B tore him.


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Re-Defeat Bush in '04


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think so.. [Re: Skikid16]
    #1503135 - 04/29/03 03:32 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Well thanks to both Skikid and Echo for the compliments on my post. This is what I love to do, and since I'm going to be doing this for the rest of my life its probably a good thing.

As far as Johnny is concerned, a little bird told me he will not be joining us in PA&L any more. While he told me why, I don't really believe him, and I suspect that my post may have had something to do with it. So it goes. Just another PA&L casulty of war.

Let me add, in no way do I think the war was completely about oil, though I think it was a factor, and that my analysis of the situation was one of my opinion on the matter. In fact this latest move by OPEC has left me dumbfounded, and though I get the feeling I'm not the only one, I'm just a student.


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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


Edited by I_Fart_Blue (04/29/03 03:35 AM)


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Anonymous

Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1512186 - 05/01/03 07:37 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I_Fart_blue: You are vicious in here,damn,good work,also damn good work


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Anonymous

Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1512288 - 05/01/03 08:07 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

While you address the manufacturing levels of the oil fairly well- what about the costs related to transporting it and extracting it from the ground? Getting oil from Iraq to the US is not cheap in any respect.. The oil wells will most likely need to be guarded, as there is huge unrest in Iraq. Gas companies do not drop their prices according to how much oil supply there is- not at a 1-1 ratio. After a raise in price, they never lower prices to the former price..

Just curious, mind you


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InvisibleEvolving
Resident Cynic

Registered: 10/01/02
Posts: 5,385
Loc: Apt #6, The Village
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: ]
    #1512363 - 05/01/03 08:25 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

The U.S. gets a relatively small percentage of it's oil from the mid-east. However, oil is a commodity traded on the world markets so the world supplies and prices are greatly affected by situations in the mid-east. Even if no extra oil comes from the region to the U.S., the benefits of a more stable and more abundant supply will benefit U.S. industry indirectly.


--------------------
To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.'  Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence.  Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains.  Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.


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OfflineRonoS
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Evolving]
    #1513266 - 05/02/03 12:14 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I agree...controlling the oil is more important than having it. The U.S. gets most of it's oil from Canada anyways...If the U.S. knows it can control the oil distribution for that region of the world, it forces the other countries to play ball with the U.S. or face the consequences...
The fact that it's a brilliant way to globalize the economy doesn't make it stink any less though...


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"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"


Edited by Rono (05/02/03 12:15 AM)


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: ]
    #1513691 - 05/02/03 02:23 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I am in no way an expert on any economic matters, especially of those of a microeconomic persuasion. Somebody who is adroit in the energy sector could obviously give you a much better response as this is a fairly complicated matter. Also let me note that nobody should in any way interpret what I say as a prediction. I don't want somebody bitching at me three months down the road because gas prices haven't come down. :wink:

Costs such as transportation and extraction, which are variable costs, are built into the price. This is the same with any product, as I am sure you know. You are always covering somebody else's cost. So a cost like guarding the wells would probably be passed on in cost depending on who is doing the guarding. Of course the cost will most likely be to American tax payers. Transportation from Iraq is costly yes, but at it has been pointed out, oil is a market commodity, so an increase in the overall supply of oil would drive market prices down.

As far as
Quote:

Gas companies do not drop their prices according to how much oil supply there is- not at a 1-1 ratio. After a raise in price, they never lower prices to the former price..




Gas companies do alter their prices according to the supply of oil, because the supply of oil determines the price of oil which affects the cost of manufacturing gasoline. Crude prices account for roughly forty-five percent of the cost of gasoline, I believe. There is a direct correlation between the two. But no, a one dollar drop in crude does not equate to a one dollar drop in gas prices. We'd have to go through some complicated statistical analysis to determine this, and to tell you the truth I cannot tell you exactly how much a change in one equates to a change in another. There are folks who can, and they get paid the big bucks. :wink: Gas companies do drop their prices. I am not sure how you arrived at the contrary position.  :confused: Gas companies are still bound by supply/demand laws as everybody else. Here is a chart from the Energy Information Administration showing the fluctuation of average gas prices nation-wide.



Here is the EIA's outlook for the summer if anybody is interested. Essentially the report says that demand is up, stores are down. They are saying on average, gas this summer will be $1.56. I have some seen some analysts projecting prices about a nickel or so lower. Hope that in some way answered your questions. 


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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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OfflineBrugman
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1521042 - 05/05/03 03:01 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

I'd just like to point out that I live in the same city as Rono, and we do not say "aboot" here.
Thanks.
The Canadian insults are very lame.
Your knowledge is impressive.. not your petty little flames though.
Again, just pointing crap out cuz I'm bored.  :tongue:


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Brugman]
    #1521078 - 05/05/03 03:23 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Sorry, I think you're thinking of luvdemshrooms. 'Twas not I who was making the "aboot" comments. I will take credit for the knowledge comment though, thanks.


--------------------
"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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Offlinetrev
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: I_Fart_Blue]
    #1521083 - 05/05/03 03:25 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

The U.S. gets most of it's oil from Canada anyways...


Shit look out guys youre next door to U.S.


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Anonymous #14
[quote]There are billions of people on this planet. The world does not revolve around the united states, moron. I hope terrorists crash their collective cocks into your asshole. [/quote]


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,244
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Brugman]
    #1521188 - 05/05/03 05:16 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

I'd just like to point out that I live in the same city as Rono, and we do not say "aboot" here.
Thanks.
The Canadian insults are very lame.
Your knowledge is impressive.. not your petty little flames though.
Again, just pointing crap out cuz I'm bored.  :tongue: 



Lighten up. Get a life. Develop a sense of humor.

Don't worry aboot it.

Edit: I was curious aboot when people started saying aboot here so I did a search aboot it. The search showed that people here were using aboot long before I found out aboot this place.

Blame South Park.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


Edited by luvdemshrooms (05/05/03 05:21 AM)


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OfflineAzmodeus
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #1522103 - 05/05/03 04:26 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

...and i always thought it was americans who said "aboot".....i just didn't want to be a spelliing Nazi. :smirk:


--------------------
"Know your Body - Know your Mind - Know your Substance - Know your Source.

Lest we forget. "


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OfflineJohnnyRespect
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Registered: 04/17/03
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Loc: East Coast
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: Azmodeus]
    #1527004 - 05/07/03 10:35 AM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Long Awaited Reply


I_F_B Since I don't have any formal education in economics, i'll just say this. If you think a five cent decrease in gas prices can replace the 80 billion dollars in our coffers, then the 28 cent national average drop in gas should have actually netted us 400 billion dollars (plus a wee bit) Is that what I'm seeing here?




--------------------
As I felt the soft cool mud squish between my toes, I thought, Man, these are not very good shoes!


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OfflineI_Fart_Blue
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Re: Op:Iraqi Freedom as a push for oil money? I don't think [Re: JohnnyRespect]
    #1527359 - 05/07/03 01:33 PM (17 years, 2 months ago)

Did I say that five cent decrease in gas prices could replace $80 billion? No. I can't say exaclty how much an x cent change in gas prices affects real income. There are incredible ammount of factors which gasoline affects, not to mention the factors that petroleum affects (And no I can't tell you that either, like I said, there are economists which get paid the big bucks to figure that sorta stuff out, I am not one of them). From what I have read, though I can't provide a link b/c it has been a few months, economists figure that a $10 per barrel increase or decrease affects GDP +/-.05%.


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"A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative-to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past." -John Maynard Keynes


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