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Offlinejimbotron
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Dems Take NY-26
    #14506609 - 05/24/11 08:22 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Paul Ryan's epic unforced error has finally bore fruit, except for the other team. NY-26 went 74-26 for McCain Chris Lee in 2010. Not sure what the final tally tonight will be, but the race has been called for Hochul.

That's at least a 24-point swing since November. This is what happens if you run on a platform of pulling the plug on Grandma in a district that's full of grandmas. There must be some serious fucking amnesia in the GOP to go from 2010's "no death panels!" platform to 2011's "yes, death panels!" platform, but by jove they've done it, and they're only doubling down (see Gingrich's recent public humiliation for daring to describe right-wing social engineering as right-wing social engineering).

I hope Boehner hasn't gotten too attached to that gavel... :rofl2:

Seriously, apparently this is their brilliant plan: threaten to destroy Medicare entirely, convince the Democrats to "compromise" and only destroy part of it, then run against them from the left for giving in to their demands. Otherwise known as the "I know you are but what am I?" gambit. It's not even lying anymore, it's just insanity. It's like if someone with a weird brain lesion takes your cell phone out of your pocket and starts playing games on it, and then when you ask them to return it they tell you that you must have left it in Switzerland, and by the way have you ever had a blood orange, they're amazing.

Edited by jimbotron (05/24/11 11:47 PM)

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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: jimbotron]
    #14508579 - 05/25/11 06:29 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Actually, it's what happens when two candidates split the conservative vote.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #14509140 - 05/25/11 10:24 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Jimbo is touching himself if he thinks this is any kind of referendum.  Mostly this is because the Republican was inexperienced as a politician.  Then there is the demographic.  That whole area is a welfare state.  In fact, almost all of upstate NY is.  Finally there is the Jackass "Tea Party" schmuck.  Yet another fake trying to capitalize on a name.

I think the district is likely to be eliminated soon anyway since Western NY is going to lose at least one seat.


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14509412 - 05/25/11 11:35 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

He is a funny lil' fella.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers

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Offlinejimbotron
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #14509487 - 05/25/11 11:50 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Actually, it's what happens when two candidates split the conservative vote.




Hochul got 48% of the vote.* The last Democrat to run only got 26%.

Where did the other 22% come from? You can't turn division into addition no matter how hard you try.

Quote:

Then there is the demographic.  That whole area is a welfare state.  In fact, almost all of upstate NY is. 




Well, sure. It's the most conservative welfare state imaginable, but far be it from me to criticize the Greatest Generation for their hypocrisy. I mean, my grandparents live in Lancaster. And they're constantly in and out of hospitals, and everything is paid for by Medicare. The median age has gotta be somewhere around 70. It's a shithole and the only influx of money is government payments for long-term care to the nursing homes. The place will be a ghost town in 10 years.

However, I seem to remember an awful lot of chest-beating about the "Tidal Wave" last November; I don't remember an awful lot of navel-gazing about how it didn't really count because it was just a bunch of geezers on the dole.

Which it was. That's all the "Tea Party" ever was. I don't know why the Republicans bought into their own bullshit about how it was a bunch of hip young independents, but I'm so glad they did. I hope they keep on buying it, keep on preaching about how Grandma just needs to turn on her iPhone and shop around for some health insurance bargains. Any 85-year-old with heart failure could get insured if they just weren't so goddamn stupid and lazy. See how that message resonates!

*And, no, this doesn't prove that Jack Davis was the spoiler. The people who left his camp voted for the Democrat. Even if Jack Davis had suddenly died and his name was removed from the ballot, Corwin would not have ended up with 52% of the vote. This had been evident in the poll numbers for several weeks.

Edited by jimbotron (05/25/11 12:21 PM)

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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: jimbotron]
    #14509603 - 05/25/11 12:20 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

jimbotron said:
Quote:

Actually, it's what happens when two candidates split the conservative vote.




Hochul got 48% of the vote.* The last Democrat to run only got 26%.

Where did the other 22% come from? You can't turn division into addition no matter how hard you try.




WTF? I didn't try to turn anything into anything. Had two conservatives not been running, the 52% remaining (all things being equal) would have gone to one person. The Dem would have lost.

100% - 48% = 52%.

Want to try again?


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: jimbotron]
    #14509613 - 05/25/11 12:22 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

jimbotron said:
Quote:

Actually, it's what happens when two candidates split the conservative vote.




Hochul got 48% of the vote.* The last Democrat to run only got 26%.

Where did the other 22% come from? You can't turn division into addition no matter how hard you try.

Quote:

Then there is the demographic.  That whole area is a welfare state.  In fact, almost all of upstate NY is. 




Well, sure. It's the most conservative welfare state imaginable, but far be it from me to criticize the Greatest Generation for their hypocrisy. I mean, my grandparents live in Lancaster. And they're constantly in and out of hospitals, and everything is paid for by Medicare. The median age has gotta be somewhere around 70. It's a shithole and the only influx of money is government payments for long-term care to the nursing homes. The place will be a ghost town in 10 years.

However, I seem to remember an awful lot of chest-beating about the "Tidal Wave" last November; I don't remember an awful lot of navel-gazing about how it didn't really count because it was just a bunch of geezers on the dole.

Which it was. That's all the "Tea Party" ever was. I don't know why the Republicans bought into their own bullshit about how it was a bunch of hip young independents, but I'm so glad they did. I hope they keep on buying it, keep on preaching about how Grandma just needs to turn on her iPhone and shop around for some health insurance bargains. Any 85-year-old with heart failure could get insured if they just weren't so goddamn stupid and lazy. See how that message resonates!

*And, no, this doesn't prove that Jack Davis was the spoiler. The people who left his camp voted for the Democrat. This had been evident in the poll numbers for several weeks.



It was a landslide last November and one seat in NY state, the bluest of the blue, doesn't have any relevance to the nation at large. 

And regarding your grand parents, nothing is paid by Medicare.  It is paid by taxpaying suckers.  Just as they, if they ever paid taxes and they probably did, paid for the previous generation of freebooters.  Ponzi scheme.  Schmucks.  Suckers.


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Offlinejimbotron
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #14509641 - 05/25/11 12:27 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Okay, I guess that's a great second-grade analysis, but all things are not equal.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel/archive/2011/05/25/ny-26-jack-davis-and-the-spoiler-effect.aspx

Quote:

No question: The presence of Jack Davis on the ballot as the "Tea Party" candidate made it tougher for Jane Corwin to win New York's 26th district...

Saying that is not saying "Republicans can write this election off because it was spoiled." Unofficial results have Hochul winning the election by 4,694 votes. Davis won 9,495 votes; the Green Party's candidate, journalist Ian Murphy, won 1,130 votes. There aren't any exit polls in the race (why would there be?) but the last Siena poll broke down the third party support like this.

Davis's support was 25.6 percent Democratic, 33.3 percent Republican, and 41.1 percent independent.

Murphy's support was 50 percent Democratic, 25 percent Republican, and 25 percent independent.

Hochul was beating Corwin with independents, and pulling 12 percent of Republicans as Corwin pulled 8 percent of Democrats. But to keep things simple, let's assume that all the Democrats and Republicans who voted third party would have otherwise voted third party, and assume the independents split 50-50. If that happened, Corwin would have added 5,579 votes to her column. Hochul would have added 4,888 votes. Hochul would still have won the election.

That's crude math, sure, but if Corwin had won anything less than 75 percent of the third party vote, she'd have lost anyway. Pointing and sputtering at the Davis total doesn't strike me as an effective Republican spin on the race. It was a complicated campaign, with some other bright spots for conservatives.




I'll have to hunt down the graph, but if you look at the recent polling, you see Corwin's level of support staying the same while Hochul's rose and Davis's fell. Face it: an lot of conservatives voted for the Democrat.


Edited by jimbotron (05/25/11 12:33 PM)

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Offlinejimbotron
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14509654 - 05/25/11 12:30 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:And regarding your grand parents, nothing is paid by Medicare.  It is paid by taxpaying suckers.  Just as they, if they ever paid taxes and they probably did, paid for the previous generation of freebooters.




Couldn't you say the same about private insurance? The insurance company doesn't pay for your doctor's visit - it's all the other suckers paying premiums!

I mean, I thought that was the whole idea.

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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #14509698 - 05/25/11 12:37 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

luvdemshrooms said:

WTF? I didn't try to turn anything into anything. Had two conservatives not been running, the 52% remaining (all things being equal) would have gone to one person. The Dem would have lost.

100% - 48% = 52%.

Want to try again?





Yep.  The stupid election system that gives the plurality the entire election is ridiculous and only works with two candidates.  Several presidential elections would have gone differently if the libertarian vote alone went to the loosing party in the last few elections.


This kind of crap only serves to reward the side that is able to succesfully prohibit any ideologicaly similar candidates of any popularity from running where the whole point of an election is to choose the most popular candidate, obviously a problem.  They should insittute instant run off voting and stop making these elctions a farce. 


You would think the ideology that is able to succesfully be endorsed by several candidates to the opposition's single candidate would be the preferable one provided similar levels of support, but the election system in favor in the US rewards percisely the opposite and makes bizzarre, illegal, and impossible election rules a profitable are for the parties to manipulate.


Hell, in Ohio recently they actually passed law and rules that made it impossible for third parties to run in the upcoming election regardless of the support they recieved, number of signatures they could gather, or any other factor.  It took a federal lawsuit to change anything- the level of incompetence or malice here is obvious.

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: jimbotron]
    #14509728 - 05/25/11 12:43 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

jimbotron said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:And regarding your grand parents, nothing is paid by Medicare.  It is paid by taxpaying suckers.  Just as they, if they ever paid taxes and they probably did, paid for the previous generation of freebooters.




Couldn't you say the same about private insurance? The insurance company doesn't pay for your doctor's visit - it's all the other suckers paying premiums!

I mean, I thought that was the whole idea.




No.  Because nobody comes to your house with a gun and makes you buy private insurance.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: johnm214]
    #14509750 - 05/25/11 12:47 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

I don't think Davis was enough of a determining factor.  I think the determining factor was Corwin's weakness as a candidate and inability to spew lies as facilely as a career politician can.

Medicare and Medicaid are bankrupting the country and the recipients are going to have get their haircut.  Either that or all you young schmucks are going to be cornholed beyond belief.


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Offlinejimbotron
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14510157 - 05/25/11 02:30 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:Medicare and Medicaid are bankrupting the country and the recipients are going to have get their haircut.




By "the recipients" I presume you mean the drug companies that the Bush Administration forbade the government from negotiating with. As in, if a Medicare patient needs a pill to live, and the drug company says they're $200 a piece, then that's what you're on the hook for. There have been repeated attempts to simply say fuck all this and buy American drugs from Canada, which does NOT have such a law (whatever happened to free markets solving everything?) but the Republicans have never allowed it.

So, I agree. It's time to fuck the drug companies. No other country on earth pays the prices we do and it's time that changed.

Wait, someone's telling me that actually this isn't in Paul Ryan's plan at all. How surprising. :rolleyes:

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: jimbotron]
    #14510182 - 05/25/11 02:35 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

If you fuck the drug companies there will be no drugs.

Why should drug companies sell for less when people think their product is worth more?  I agree that the other countries should definitely pay more.  I'm sick of subsidizing them, the shiftless no account scum.


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Offlinejimbotron
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14510201 - 05/25/11 02:39 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:No.  Because nobody comes to your house with a gun and makes you buy private insurance.




Hardly seems relevant to my point, which was that Medicare and insurance companies both collect money into a big pool and then pay it back out as needed. (Well, except that the insurance companies skim off 30% as a token of our appreciation for their awesome money-shuffling skills.)

The origin of the money has little bearing on whether or not the pool exists.

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: jimbotron]
    #14510230 - 05/25/11 02:45 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

jimbotron said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:No.  Because nobody comes to your house with a gun and makes you buy private insurance.




Hardly seems relevant to my point, which was that Medicare and insurance companies both collect money into a big pool and then pay it back out as needed. (Well, except that the insurance companies skim off 30% as a token of our appreciation for their awesome money-shuffling skills.)

The origin of the money has little bearing on whether or not the pool exists.




One is voluntary, the other is not.  I agree that health insurance is bullshit.  I wish I could only buy the type of policy I want but I can't because the government mandates that my insurer must cover a whole bunch of shit I don't want covered.  And 3% of every dollar I make is confiscated for a program I will never, ever collect from.  Never, ever see one shred of benefit.  Gone, poof, like the proverbial wind.  Sucked away and sent to far off lands.

The profit margin for health insurance companies is around 4%.


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Offlinejimbotron
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14510246 - 05/25/11 02:49 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:Why should drug companies sell for less when people think their product is worth more?




Because they still make a profit. They sell for less to every other country on earth. The difference is that if Canada says they want a billion pills for $20 each, the drug company starts from there. Here, the government says they want a billion pills, and the drug company says "That'll be $200 each" and... that's it. They're bound by law to either take the price or not carry the pill. This is what we refer to as a "system". Again, the simple solution is to subcontract Canada, but this is outlawed. Another solution would be to simply end the practice of patenting medication, but it seems a lot more rational and fair to simply bring our laws in line with the rest of the world's.

No country on earth thinks those pills are worth $200, that's why nobody chooses to pay it. If I make a painting and slap a million dollar price tag on it, it doesn't necessarily mean I think it's worth a million dollars, but it's the only painting of its kind so take it or leave it. I'm not sure why you're so unclear on the concept of a monopoly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_Part_D

Quote:

The Department of Veterans Affairs, which is allowed to negotiate drug prices and establish a formulary, pays 58% less for drugs, on average, than Medicare Part D.[25] For example, Medicare pays $785 for a year's supply of Lipitor (atorvastatin), while the VA pays $520.




I don't know how this can be made any more clear.

Edited by jimbotron (05/25/11 02:54 PM)

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OfflineRogerRabbitV
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14510260 - 05/25/11 02:52 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Then there is the demographic.  That whole area is a welfare state.  In fact, almost all of upstate NY is.




:lol:

A whole area that's a welfare state, yet the district has been in the hands of Republicans for decades.  You might want to put the crack pipe down and think about what you just said.
RR


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: RogerRabbit]
    #14510305 - 05/25/11 03:04 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

RogerRabbit said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Then there is the demographic.  That whole area is a welfare state.  In fact, almost all of upstate NY is.




:lol:

A whole area that's a welfare state, yet the district has been in the hands of Republicans for decades.  You might want to put the crack pipe down and think about what you just said.
RR



You might want to reconsider what you are talking about.  Upstate NY business has been destroyed by the fact that it is among the 2 or 3 highest taxed states in the country.  NY City liberals have destroyed Upstate NY's ability to compete for business.  Thus it is a dead zone.

I'm going to Idaho in about a month.  Yellow Pine.  Weirdness will ensue.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: jimbotron]
    #14510413 - 05/25/11 03:32 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

jimbotron said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:Why should drug companies sell for less when people think their product is worth more?




Because they still make a profit. They sell for less to every other country on earth. The difference is that if Canada says they want a billion pills for $20 each, the drug company starts from there. Here, the government says they want a billion pills, and the drug company says "That'll be $200 each" and... that's it. They're bound by law to either take the price or not carry the pill. This is what we refer to as a "system". Again, the simple solution is to subcontract Canada, but this is outlawed. Another solution would be to simply end the practice of patenting medication, but it seems a lot more rational and fair to simply bring our laws in line with the rest of the world's.

No country on earth thinks those pills are worth $200, that's why nobody chooses to pay it. If I make a painting and slap a million dollar price tag on it, it doesn't necessarily mean I think it's worth a million dollars, but it's the only painting of its kind so take it or leave it. I'm not sure why you're so unclear on the concept of a monopoly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_Part_D

Quote:

The Department of Veterans Affairs, which is allowed to negotiate drug prices and establish a formulary, pays 58% less for drugs, on average, than Medicare Part D.[25] For example, Medicare pays $785 for a year's supply of Lipitor (atorvastatin), while the VA pays $520.




I don't know how this can be made any more clear.




All you have established is that the people who are left to their own discretion find a product so valuable that, in order to have it, they pay an exorbitant price that subsidizes Kollektivist fucks.  Do you know what will happen to the Kollektivist fucks if real people don't subsidize their drugs?  How about the governments get out of the business entirely except to prevent fraud?


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: johnm214]
    #14510638 - 05/25/11 04:10 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

johnm214 said:
They should insittute instant run off voting and stop making these elctions a farce.




I'd love to see that, but even if it were instituted today, I expect it'd be years before any significant change resulted... if ever.

But you got to start somewhere.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers

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Invisiblejohnm214
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: jimbotron]
    #14511505 - 05/25/11 07:23 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
If you fuck the drug companies there will be no drugs.

Why should drug companies sell for less when people think their product is worth more?  I agree that the other countries should definitely pay more.  I'm sick of subsidizing them, the shiftless no account scum.





If we had somewhat of a free market in drugs, they probably would be less, but your banned from ordering most chemicals out of fear of liability and government nonsense/meth lab hysteria and drugs particularly to give the pharmacists something to do and keep the doctors making $$$

Far better would be to make drugs like every other consumer product and stop the ridiculous border restrictions. 

As it is, your banned from getting a substance made to medical standards unless you get a prescription, due to FDA and DEA nonsense. The doctors are free to charge whatever they want and you must return to see them for your acen medication if you want to continue the therapy, et cet.  Paternalism at its best.  (the retail pharmacists are even worse, but that's another story)


Quote:

zappaisgod said:
I don't think Davis was enough of a determining factor.  I think the determining factor was Corwin's weakness as a candidate and inability to spew lies as facilely as a career politician can.





I don't know anything about that race.  Was just commenting on my dislike of winner-takes-all voting systems.


Quote:

jimbotron said:

I don't know how this can be made any more clear.





You could justify the entire premise.  All you've done is cited lower prices elsewhere with not argument how they are too expensive here.


As we shift to more complicated medicine with more therapies available, people seem to still think there is one way to deal with any condition, and that 'treatment' should include any conceivable therapy.  This is simply impossible and stupid.  You are allready covered for life threatening conditions via the emergency room and that takes care of most of the silly arguments (like jimbotron's about the pill that will save your life- you'll get it anyways per government mandate).

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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: jimbotron]
    #14513490 - 05/26/11 02:19 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Yes, those who was to eliminate Medicare/Medicaid are actually far beyond the pale. A majority of Americans don't want them fiddled with.

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: Le_Canard]
    #14514707 - 05/26/11 11:18 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

ToiletDuk said:
Yes, those who was to eliminate Medicare/Medicaid are actually far beyond the pale. A majority of Americans don't want them fiddled with.



Of course they do.  They don't have to pay for it.


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OfflineRogerRabbitV
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14521659 - 05/27/11 03:28 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Actually, the majority of Americans do pay for it.  They're just not the ones sitting in front of a computer typing right wing rants 18 hours a day.  They're out there actually working.
RR


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Dems Take NY-26 [Re: RogerRabbit]
    #14521717 - 05/27/11 03:37 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

RogerRabbit said:
Actually, the majority of Americans do pay for it.  They're just not the ones sitting in front of a computer typing right wing rants 18 hours a day.  They're out there actually working.
RR



Hardly.  The people who pay for it are those at the top brackets who contribute most of the money and will never get any benefits.  Shouldn't you be failing at a business yourself right now?


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