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InvisibleAsante
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ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging * 1
    #14404124 - 05/05/11 08:19 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

In case anyone missed it, heres an in-your-face thread about it:

In the past days silver dropped about $10 per ounce from being near to the barrier of psychological resistance of $50 to $38.

No one knows how low it will go so watch this like a hawk if you plan to buy in, but right now, silver is down over $300 per kilo, over $1,000 down per 100oz bar.

I'd like to remind shocked newbie silverbugs that this big loss is not a time for




These things happen, dont get cold feet and keep your eyes on the goal.

So what you lost the value of a new car in this dip, I did, you dont hear me complaining. :awesomenod:

This is NOT a time for panic, its a pothole in a road thats still going up as far as we can see it.

Ask yourself: what has really changed in the big picture? This is not silvers parting kick in the nuts, its a buy opportunity emerging for people who want in or for those wanting to add to their stack.

You're on your own, you always were. Plan and research your steps carefully and make your own decisions. Your wealth, your responsibility.

Just putting up a sign here that either a big change happened or is in the process of getting bigger.

Silver never was for the squeamish :thumbup:



My congrats to Trendal, who wanted into gold so had concrete plans for the $$, for selling right at the summit. Good call man :hug:


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Offlinedrawde
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Asante]
    #14404181 - 05/05/11 08:34 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Indeeedie... thanks for the reminder.



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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Asante]
    #14405028 - 05/05/11 12:21 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

While I agree that we are close to a buying opportunity in the silver metal, I would also caution members not to mistake a buying opportunity for a "must load up the boat right now as fast as I can" opportunity.  The extreme level of selling that the metal is seeing this week is likely to create a decent amount of regret as the price of the metal starts to move higher in attempts to chew through the resistance created by the folks who were buying at the top.  In other words, don't look at the chart and focus on the period from February through last week and expect that such a steep slope of incline is likely to immediately resume.  Unless there is some exogenous event that takes place, the price of silver is going to have to grind around a bit, so don't feel like you need to buy everything you want to buy immediately... I think you'll have plenty of time to accumulate a position. 

For nimble traders, I would wait for an uptick and take a quick trade expecting a throw back to somewhere around $37 - $38 in the coming days or weeks.  For longer term investors, there really isn't anything wrong with taking a little bit right now, but I would definitely be buying in scales since as of this writing, silver is still under heavy distribution, down another 9% on the day on very heavy volume and now nearly 30% off of its high.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: geokills]
    #14405142 - 05/05/11 12:53 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Sage advice as always :thumbup:


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Edited by Asante (05/05/11 12:53 PM)


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Offlineimachavel
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Asante]
    #14405734 - 05/05/11 03:02 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

this is definitely a technical analysis compared to a fundamental one then. a day trade i take it?


that's great if you expect it to go back up to it's previous balanced trade value. but why is it losing so much value? what about a 3 year future estimate on the stock value?

i'm curious as to why this has dropped, and haven't done much research on it myself.


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Offlineimachavel
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: geokills]
    #14405778 - 05/05/11 03:13 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
While I agree that we are close to a buying opportunity in the silver metal, I would also caution members not to mistake a buying opportunity for a "must load up the boat right now as fast as I can" opportunity.  The extreme level of selling that the metal is seeing this week is likely to create a decent amount of regret as the price of the metal starts to move higher in attempts to chew through the resistance created by the folks who were buying at the top.  In other words, don't look at the chart and focus on the period from February through last week and expect that such a steep slope of incline is likely to immediately resume.  Unless there is some exogenous event that takes place, the price of silver is going to have to grind around a bit, so don't feel like you need to buy everything you want to buy immediately... I think you'll have plenty of time to accumulate a position. 

For nimble traders, I would wait for an uptick and take a quick trade expecting a throw back to somewhere around $37 - $38 in the coming days or weeks.  For longer term investors, there really isn't anything wrong with taking a little bit right now, but I would definitely be buying in scales since as of this writing, silver is still under heavy distribution, down another 9% on the day on very heavy volume and now nearly 30% off of its high.





i guess this is what i was trying to say, sorry i sputtered off on a track of rambling. looking at it technically might double your money, don't get me wrong. but expect a long term fundamental analysis if you want to realize why it dropped. it might not be safe, who is to say it will definitely return to it's previous value so quickly?

don't forget these things are risks. look at barnes and nobles, a lot of people thought the first drop was a rare thing to happen to it's value, and that it'd make a quick return. well it just happened to be the first step on a long one to the road to bankruptcy. truthfully it had such good previous stock listings.

and if not the best, definitely not the worst. maybe it wasn't in the top ten ticker, but it didn't suck. so always be careful, i don't see why it'd drop off the scale, but don't be so sure. always ask geokills, he is pretty smart.


a friend of my dads who is a stock brocker read one of his posts one day and gave me this long shpiel about how his advice was really technical and not fundamental. not impressed. :lol:

but then later i found most of his opinions synched up with geos and didn't understand then why he disagreed with him. geo seems to keep track of this stuff a lot, and makes good analysis. and no one thing is ever so predictable anyway. i find stock brockers can be really cocky and sometimes lazy, not even knowing their own stock that they recommend so well, getting a lot of people to do the analysis for them, then feeding that to their customers. i don't think it's wise to say that supply and demand is not a long term fundamental analysis. only idiots really take a stock buy and sell, as something that isn't effected by supply and demand. i mean what CAN you buy and sell without supply and demand? anything? oh jesus i just realized that. no, nothing :lol:


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Asante]
    #14406386 - 05/05/11 05:26 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

I had thoughts of selling more of my silver in the past couple of weeks.  Too bad I didnt, but at this point I dont think Im gonna buy or sell.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Asante]
    #14408109 - 05/05/11 11:48 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

QE3 and the Silver Entry Point

by John Rubino


With QE2 scheduled to wind down this summer and millions of American voters still unemployed, it was clear that the Fed was itching to keep the monetary spigot open. But how would that be possible with oil, food, and precious metals at or near historic highs and the dollar at multi-year lows? Clearly, something would have to happen to justify QE3.

Now we know what. On April 27 the Fed confirms that QE2 will end pretty soon, and one week later a slew of bad economic numbers just happen to hit the headlines. First-time jobless claims, productivity, consumer confidence all suddenly appear to contradict the idea that a sustainable recovery is underway. Stocks tank, oil falls, and gold and silver retrace their post-Bernanke press conference parabolic spikes. The economy is suddenly looking double-dipish.



This might be pure coincidence, of course, but the timing is definitely propitious for a government that 1) knows it has to inflate away the dollar if it’s to have any hope of maintaining its global military empire and cradle-to-grave welfare system, and 2) has an election coming up in which a roaring 2012 economy is crucial.

Now get ready for the spread of the 1931 meme, in which the current false spring is compared to the one that preceded the descent into the Great Depression. Talking heads will demand action, government officials will claim to be watching the situation closely, and economists will start debating the form of the next stimulus plan. Then — with plenty of time for the folks in power to claim credit during the election campaign — Washington will announce something that puts QE2 to shame. Shock and awe on a Krugmanesque scale will hit the markets. And the plan to inflate away the dollar will really get going.

No real surprises here, but a dilemma for investors. How much trauma will the financial markets have to suffer before it’s a “crisis” capable of justifying QE3? What level on the Dow are we talking about? And where will gold, silver and oil have to go to wash away those pesky inflationary expectations? Put another way, where is the entry point for the next — inevitable — parabolic move up? Is it $30 silver or does the plan require $20?

It’s safe to say that the entire sound money world has spent the past six months wishing we’d mortgaged the house and bought Silver Eagles. Now, just maybe, we’re getting one last chance.

So, two questions:

1) Where’s the bottom? Obviously that’s unknowable, so the only reasonable approach is to ease in, hope it goes lower and then buy more. Eventually silver will stop falling and by then you’ll own a bunch of it.

2) Bullion or mining stocks? A while back Paper Empire published a chart that validates what owners of silver mining shares had been feeling: the miners had underperformed bullion to an absolutely historic degree. The obvious response was to short bullion and go long the stocks on the assumption that no matter what silver did, the stocks would have to outperform bullion.

It’s probably too late for that now, and with both bullion and stocks falling right now, it’s not clear how the relationship is evolving. But it will be a good idea to track it, for instance by setting up a spreadsheet that updates daily, as an indicator of which kind of silver to bet the farm on.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/john-rubino/qe-3-and-the-silver-entry-point


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Asante]
    #14408808 - 05/06/11 06:39 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
My congrats to Trendal, who wanted into gold so had concrete plans for the $$, for selling right at the summit. Good call man :hug:




Thanks! It was mostly luck, though, as I think most deals are with silver! I had the auctions set to end Monday morning, so they all saw the max of the price run up.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: zorbman]
    #14408823 - 05/06/11 06:47 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
First-time jobless claims, productivity, consumer confidence all suddenly appear to contradict the idea that a sustainable recovery is underway.



Well, the employment number just came out at +244,000 -- which is about 75,000 higher than people were thinking.

Productivity is down because employers are hiring again.  They could no longer squeeze any more productivity out of their shrunk workforce.  When employees increase by more than output, productivity declines.

And consumer confidence is taking hits from the price of oil thats getting squeezed between the pending summer demand, the lack of supply from libya, and (to a lesser extent) furthur fears  of potential uprisings in other middle-eastern oil-producing nations.


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InvisibleLana
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: imachavel]
    #14408846 - 05/06/11 06:57 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

imachavel said:
but why is it losing so much value? what about a 3 year future estimate on the stock value?

i'm curious as to why this has dropped, and haven't done much research on it myself.





The move in silver (as others above have said) is technical.  The drop in price is due to margin requirements going into effect this Monday, May 9th.    Read more about it here - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/silver-investors-dump-futures-as-comex-boosts-speculator-trading-costs-84-.html

Silver Investors Dump Bets After Exchange Boosts Margins 84%
The biggest slump for silver since 1983 may not be over as the Comex exchange in New York makes it 84 percent more expensive for speculators to trade the metal, triggering an exit by investors.

The minimum amount of cash that must be deposited when borrowing from brokers to open new positions will rise to $21,600 per contract after May 9, CME Group Ltd., Comex’s owner, said yesterday. That’s up from $11,745 two weeks ago. Open interest in futures has tumbled about 15 percent since the exchange began raising margin requirements on April 25.
----------------------------------------------
Straight from the horses mouth :smile:

http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/clearing/understanding-margin-changes/#utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=understanding-margin-changes

----------------------------------------------

I've read that due to the new margin requirements, it's now actually more expensive to trade silver options than gold. 

Lana


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: geokills]
    #14409110 - 05/06/11 08:51 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Silver is bouncing this morning.  This is the time that you want to take at least a partial position if you have any interest at all in the metal, since you can set a stop loss at yesterday's low, thereby limiting your downside risk while allowing yourself to capitalize off of an oversold throwback into the $37 - $38 / oz area.

I am long AGQ (leveraged SLV) for a trade only.  I may hold on to a little piece of it, but most of the position will be sold by the end of the day.


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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Lana]
    #14409114 - 05/06/11 08:52 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

There damn well may be, right around here. But, don't dive in yet! Excellent daily RSI failure (oversell) and a 3 buck pop since. Let it consolidate a bit in this 35/36 range and we'll see what happens. Lookin' at buying, myself.


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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Hotnuts]
    #14409126 - 05/06/11 08:54 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Ooops. 2 different views, posted at the same exact time! lol!


Edited by Hotnuts (05/06/11 08:54 AM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Hotnuts]
    #14409138 - 05/06/11 08:58 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

That's what makes a market! :wink:

Also just read this on the StockMarketMentor private subscription forum:
Quote:

silver -I have a last in July silver of $36.13. Above $37, the new shorts will begin to get squeezed and older (24 hours+) shorts will begin to sense that the fun is over and lock in some profits, thereby adding to the buying pressure. If we've indeed found a bottom, silver may, by Monday, trade back UP near $38-40.

In a traditional bottom, silver would then trade back DOWN toward $35 later next week. At that point we'd have the makings of a solid double bottom. THAT WILL BE YOUR ENTRY POINT.

If you're not currently long, I would advise you against buying this rally. With a potential short-term upside of $3 vs a downside of $2, its just not a tradable proposition. IF, however, the next week or so plays our as I've described above, the risk:reward will swing dramatically in our favor and we can act decisively then.






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Invisibleteknix
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: geokills]
    #14411504 - 05/06/11 05:43 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

I'm excited I have some money back to buy some even cheaper :smile:

This is teh best 1 imo~



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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: geokills]
    #14412379 - 05/06/11 08:41 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
That's what makes a market! :wink:

Also just read this on the StockMarketMentor private subscription forum:
Quote:

silver -I have a last in July silver of $36.13. Above $37, the new shorts will begin to get squeezed and older (24 hours+) shorts will begin to sense that the fun is over and lock in some profits, thereby adding to the buying pressure. If we've indeed found a bottom, silver may, by Monday, trade back UP near $38-40.

In a traditional bottom, silver would then trade back DOWN toward $35 later next week. At that point we'd have the makings of a solid double bottom. THAT WILL BE YOUR ENTRY POINT.

If you're not currently long, I would advise you against buying this rally. With a potential short-term upside of $3 vs a downside of $2, its just not a tradable proposition. IF, however, the next week or so plays our as I've described above, the risk:reward will swing dramatically in our favor and we can act decisively then.









I'm a dollar bull, so i'm only looking to trade a retracement and that's it. If shit hits the fan as i'm expecting, I wouldn't be surprised to see single digit silver.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Hotnuts]
    #14413936 - 05/07/11 05:56 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

I wouldn't be surprised to see single digit silver.





I just came :curbyourenthusiasm:


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Invisiblememes
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: Asante]
    #14413952 - 05/07/11 06:08 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

If silver hits single digits even I'll be buying.  and i'm MEAMS.


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OfflineTaco Chef
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Re: ATTENTION: Buy opportunity for Silver emerging [Re: geokills]
    #14413958 - 05/07/11 06:11 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

so is this just another market bubble bursting, and in general do you think this sell off was connected to the general sell off in commodities, most notably oil, at the end of last week?


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