|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Let's see how full of shit meams' is!
#14394583 - 05/03/11 01:56 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Welp, every month the BLS releases an employment report that starts off with the net gain/loss in nonfarm payroll employment, and the subsequential change in the unemployment rate. This information is obviously importnat, since the "markets" react to it.
My boss wants to know what that number is. I really had no idea about how to go about getting it - and since i'm just kinda working there, i didnt want to bother them. Teachers? Nope, they're impossible to find! Especially now that the one that used to work for the BLS is the head of the MBA dept.
So I just did my best, looked at a bunch of data, tried my best to model whatever I could, and we'll see how close I am.
I go in tomorrow morning to present my "findings" (i.e. guess). I'll post my official guestimates right when I get back.
The official figure is released thursday morning.
We can take bets on how wrong I'll be!
|
Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14395686 - 05/03/11 06:04 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Well, you;re going to need to tell us your predictions beforehand....
What does the BLS say unemployment is at by the way? Just wondering, cuz there's so many different numbers with all of the fudged up aggregate models these days.
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: Shins]
#14396599 - 05/03/11 08:21 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Google "BLS EMployment Report"
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14397399 - 05/03/11 10:43 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
OK I officially finished my forecasts for the overall employment level and the unemployment rate. I will post them once I see the ADP employment report at 8:15am tomorrow.
If my numbers are ANYWHERE NEAR what theirs are, I'll be elated, and feel confideng going into this presentation - otherwise i'll be like wtfz0r roflpwn3d.
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14400025 - 05/04/11 01:35 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Went in and presented to the office today and daaaaaaaamn did i fall flat on my face. First time making an official presentation on some econometric shit, and i made some classic mistakes:
-brainfarts -explaining things in econometric terminology to non-econ-nerds -not knowing basic GDP statistics off the top of my head
Boooohue.
Lucky for me, the ISM non-manufacturing index came out today and was quite a bit weaker than expected. This will help my forecasted jobs number, which was a bit weaker than analysts expected.
I have until tomorrow at 3pm to submit a revision in my forecast to my boss, but I dont think I"m going to change it.
He's taking $1000 from his IRA and making a bet on my prediction. Either in Medium- or Long-Term Bond ETFs. Im not quite sure how or why it works. perhaps I'll PM geokills.
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14407161 - 05/05/11 08:05 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
I cant believe I forgot to post up my forecast. The number I gave my boss yesterday morning was an increase in nonfarm payroll of 166,000. Forecasts at the time were around 198k. Lucky for me, the ISM service report came out with shitty results and then this morning jobless benefit applications shot up a lot this past week.
So. We'll see what happens tomorrow morning at 8:30. THe expectations as of right now are at 183,000. Thats only 17k more than the number I came up with all on my lonesome. If i get anywhere close i'm going to be elated.
So. Keep your fingers crossed!
+166,000 +.1 to 8.9% unemployment
|
Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14407213 - 05/05/11 08:14 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
I don't envy your job. It must be tough trying to make projections off of fudged aggregates.
I understand your boss is probably interested in how it'll effect the irrational-longer-than-solvent markets, but gawd, wouldn't it be nice if we could make projections and decisions based off of real world numbers?
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: Shins]
#14407395 - 05/05/11 08:50 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
.
Edited by memes (03/21/14 07:48 PM)
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14407438 - 05/05/11 09:00 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
.
Edited by memes (03/21/14 07:48 PM)
|
Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14408375 - 05/06/11 01:25 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
I just wish when they say "unemployment" that they would tell you the real numbers no some cherry picked aggregate, though i understand how it can be useful to break it down, i just think its disingenuous to the laymen.
Quote:
I don't even think my model is econometrically sound. I threw it together.
You should do well in your field!
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: Shins]
#14408771 - 05/06/11 06:24 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Hah. When I'm in my field, I'll probably be in an office where I'm actually working on the models I'm dealing with.
This one was thrown together between Tuesday night @10pm when I got out of my exam, and 10am Wednesday morning when I went to the office.
I know you couldn't do any better, so I'll just chuckle at your pot-shot.
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14408793 - 05/06/11 06:33 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
lOOOOKS like I was full of shit.
+244,000 and everyone on CNBC right now is scratching their head. haha
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,419
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 14 hours, 50 minutes
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14409156 - 05/06/11 09:04 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
This is the problem with economic forecasts, and the majority of forward looking analysis that tries to pinpoint a specific number, rather than a general trend. Understanding the trend is fundamentally important and technical analysis of real (not estimated) price action is tangible, but the incredible focus that people seem to put on exacting forecast numbers is surely a contributing factor to the wild volatility our markets have been seeing over the past decade. Put plainly, I don't care how good anyone's models are, a forecast is still just a guess... and yet, money tends to move based on these forecasts, and then move even more violently if and when the forecasts prove incorrect (which seems to me to be a lot of the time!).
No disrespect to you meams. If you enjoy what you do, that's all that really counts and to hell with the naysayers! 
I know that I get some enjoyment out of my stock trading, but it's really just juggling numbers and managing risk. I don't feel very productive doing this sort of thing, and I don't see myself doing this for my entire life; rather, I am using this as a tool in efforts to build up capital so that I can do what I really want to do... live near Santa Cruz and open a brewery pub eatery where I'll spend my days jumping between the kitchen, brew house, my garden and the surf!
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: geokills]
#14409255 - 05/06/11 09:34 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
geokills said: No disrespect to you meams. If you enjoy what you do, that's all that really counts and to hell with the naysayers! 
I know what you're getting at with your opening paragraph, and I agree. Just so happens, I like playing these types of puzzle games.
Luckily I have no money in the market, so i'm not emotionally invested. I just like regression analysis.
|
Noetical
Flip Horrorshow

Registered: 11/28/04
Posts: 9,230
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14409295 - 05/06/11 09:45 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Any chance posting a stripped down version of your model ?
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: Noetical]
#14409613 - 05/06/11 10:59 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
whoops double post
Edited by memes (05/06/11 11:00 AM)
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: Noetical]
#14409614 - 05/06/11 10:59 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
It was:
This month's level of nonfarm employment payroll
=
b0 + b1*last month's level + b2*two month ago's level + b3*the ISM PMI index number + b4*the level of unemployment insurance claims + error
|
Hotnuts
old hand



Registered: 02/26/05
Posts: 3,436
Loc: Wild Blue Yawnder
Last seen: 26 days, 15 hours
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14410770 - 05/06/11 03:05 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Don't feel bad. I had 35,000.
|
Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: Hotnuts]
#14411457 - 05/06/11 05:29 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
I'll just chuckle at your pot-shot.
Good, cuz i was just joking kinda
|
zappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
|
Re: Let's see how full of shit meams' is! [Re: memes]
#14415799 - 05/07/11 03:33 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
meams said: lOOOOKS like I was full of shit.
+244,000 and everyone on CNBC right now is scratching their head. haha
Don't feel bad. 62,000 of them were one off McDonald's hires
A million applicants.
--------------------
|
|