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InvisiblePassiveAgressive
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S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating....
    #14316139 - 04/19/11 08:48 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

I've watched silently as an ambiguous big-timer credit bureau S&P has reportadly released threats to diminish the USA's AAA credit rating. I believe this came after the 'great' unresolved financial fiasco of 11' took place on capitol, which dominated news stories for a week or two. What do you all know about this National Credit rating thing? How could this impact the people etc.?

Thanks.


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Offlinegrimrs
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14316346 - 04/19/11 09:54 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

I was reading about this in reuters, I am interested in knowing the same thing.

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InvisiblePassiveAgressive
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: grimrs]
    #14317700 - 04/19/11 02:12 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

:borat:    Someone must know something about it.


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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14317865 - 04/19/11 02:40 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

I don't think this could ever happen.

The 20 year USA Treasury Bond is held as the risk-free rate for all financial modelling because it is the most secure form of security. If the bond rating fell from AAA, the price would fall so that the rate could increase to reflect the increase in risk that is associated with a lower bond rated. Its is a matter of national security that the US bond rating remains high. China would shit a brick if the value of the bonds they hold fell.


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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #14322311 - 04/20/11 10:17 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c5db3542-6b5d-11e0-9be1-00144feab49a.html#axzz1K53eoBXG

experts seem to think that it is possible, even if unlikely. And the US currency could take a hit, which is generally what we are seeing with the CDN dollar, Oil, and Gold rallying.


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InvisiblePassiveAgressive
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #14322591 - 04/20/11 11:36 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

And so it moves from marginal to possible... what's next? :popcorn:


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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14325932 - 04/21/11 12:42 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

The world's largest bond fund has gone ultra bearish on the United States, dumping all of its U.S. government-related debt holdings.

The move by Bill Gross's $236.9 billion PIMCO Total Return fund completed last month comes in the wake of a vicious Treasury market sell-off and just days after he questioned who will buy Treasuries once the Federal Reserve halts its latest round of bond purchases in June.

Gross, who also helps oversee a $1.1 trillion investment portfolio as PIMCO's co-chief investment officer, has repeatedly warned against U.S. deficit spending and its inflationary impact, which undermine the value of government debt and push up yields as investors demand more compensation for risk.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/09/us-pimco-debt-idUSTRE7285M020110309


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InvisiblePassiveAgressive
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: zorbman]
    #14325954 - 04/21/11 12:50 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

How does this translate from technical to lay? Could you break this down for us lay-persons?


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14329085 - 04/21/11 06:01 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Bill Gross is one of the richest people in America and more importantly in regards to this story, runs the world's largest bond fund so when he loses confidence in U.S. debt that should tell you something.


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InvisiblePassiveAgressive
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: zorbman]
    #14329612 - 04/21/11 07:44 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

.....oh, my!  :uhoh:


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Thousands of candles can be lit from a single candle, and the life of the candle will not be shortened.
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InvisiblePassiveAgressive
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14361196 - 04/27/11 01:45 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

http://americaisindanger.blogspot.com/2011/04/s-decision-to-downgrade-their-us-credit.html
S&P's decision to downgrade their U.S. credit outlook to negative.

Geithner Should Resign as Treasury Secretary







"....The biggest headline in the news so far this week has been S&P's decision to downgrade their U.S. credit outlook to negative. After S&P made their announcement, almost everybody in the mainstream media proclaimed it to be a "wake up call" for the U.S. government, saying that if they don't make a real effort to cut the budget deficit, a fiscal disaster awaits. Despite lowering the U.S. credit outlook to negative, S&P left the U.S. credit rating at AAA."



Lest we should forget, the ball still rolls on this one... I fear it's all of our heads due the chopping block! Credit paid where credit due! lol


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InvisiblePassiveAgressive
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14361214 - 04/27/11 01:48 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

President Obama downplayed the historic news today that the S&P moved the US credit outlook to negative.
CNBC reported:
http://gatewaypundit.rightnetwork.com/2011/04/figures-obama-downplays-dismal-sp-us-credit-outlook/




The Obama administration moved swiftly Monday to downplay ratings agency Standard & Poor’s downgrade of its U.S. credit outlook, calling the decision a political judgment that should not be taken too seriously.

The timing of S&P’s announcement was unwelcome for the White House, coming just as President Obama tried to regain the initiative on the deficit debate in Washington.

Last week Obama laid out his plan to reduce the budget deficit by $4 trillion over 12 years, trying to give markets confidence that he was serious about tackling U.S. fiscal woes.

House Republican leader Eric Cantor on Monday called the S&P downgrade “a wake-up call” against those seeking to “blindly increase” the U.S. debt limit.

S&P downgraded the outlook for the United States to negative, saying it believes there is a risk U.S. policymakers would not reach agreement on how to address the country’s long-term fiscal pressures by 2013.


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My favorite alarmist quote! lol.



#2 April 18, 2011 at 5:30 pm
Ella commented:

The dismal S&P outlook would only be a problem under a Republican president. Everything is a-okay under a democratic president…. uh….. pResIDent…… uh…… fraud….. oh never mind. It’s no problem whatsoever. Y’all please go back to watching Dancing with the Stars.


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Thousands of candles can be lit from a single candle, and the life of the candle will not be shortened.
Happiness never decreases by being shared. - Prince Gautama Siddharta, the founder of Buddhism, 563-483 B.C.

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Invisiblememes
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14361839 - 04/27/11 03:50 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Hey guys.  They revised their OUTLOOK.  Not the actual bond rating.  We are (fiscally) in the same shape as many Western European countries that do NOT have this negative OUTLOOK.  The only reason we do and they dont is because they have a PLAN to get their debt under control (regardless of whether or not they're ACTUALLY doing anything) whereas we do NOT have a plan.

In fact, we set up a commission to look at the debt problem, and subsequently completely ignored every single recommendation.

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InvisiblePassiveAgressive
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: memes]
    #14361885 - 04/27/11 03:56 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

MEAMS!!! Welcome back! You've been missed :smile: :hug:


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Thousands of candles can be lit from a single candle, and the life of the candle will not be shortened.
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Invisiblememes
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14362070 - 04/27/11 04:26 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

I'm not back.  I just jet in to throw in my $.02 whenever i feel like it.

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InvisiblePassiveAgressive
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: memes]
    #14362609 - 04/27/11 05:51 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Lol, well, thanks for that!


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Thousands of candles can be lit from a single candle, and the life of the candle will not be shortened.
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Invisiblememes
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14362737 - 04/27/11 06:12 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

:hug: :heart:

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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14362755 - 04/27/11 06:15 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Let's remember now these are the same credit agencies that were assigning Bear Stearns and Lehman brothers stellar ratings... It'd take it with a grain of salt.

Additionally, the report was about a potential downgrade in 2013.

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InvisiblePassiveAgressive
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: Groovy Grant]
    #14363244 - 04/27/11 07:58 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Aha, didn't know that.


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Thousands of candles can be lit from a single candle, and the life of the candle will not be shortened.
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Re: S&P poised to downgrade US credit rating.... [Re: PassiveAgressive]
    #14593020 - 06/10/11 09:49 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Yes, these agencies don't always get their credit ratings correct.  An example is the state of IL who's debt is rated A1 but trades like it's BB rated.  Illinois is a mess.  The state's debt stands at over $40k for every household in the state.  Meredit Whitney put a lot of fear into to muni bond market last October by predicting that there would be significant defaults come mid 2011 when QE2 was completed by the fed.  Meredith was on cnbc again this week and stands by her analysis that the consequences she expressed by municipalities undervaluing pension obligations and not showing them on their balance sheets will lead to defaults, but we haven't seen it yet.  Historically, municipal bonds have been a safe investment and the spread to treasuries has narrowed as municipality revenues have shown improvement w/ the improving economy the past two quarters, but we'll have to wait to see what happens from here as there are many uncertainties that have to play out. 

Although there shouldn't be, there are politics that come into play w/ the credit agencies, but you probably can't make a link to the agencies failure to rate the financials correctly and their negative outlook on US sovereign debt. 

The agencies could very well lower their rating.  It could make it more expensive for the gov't to borrow money, but that's ultimately going to be determined by supply and demand.  China and other foreign govt's would have to choose to invest elsewhere, and there isn't another attractive option so demand may stay strong.  Plus, china is facing inflationary pressures so investing in foreign debt is a currency trade, but that's a discussion that I'm not smart enough to have because there are too many political, economical, and financial variables that I can't comprehend.

Gross did divest in us debt.  So far he's been wrong, but who's to say that maybe he has the right idea, but was just a little early in predicting when the market would react to what he sees.  a few years from now we may look back and see that Gross is correct.  His concerns are shared by some and he has some valid points.

Bernake continues to state that inflation is transitory, but it'll be interesting to see how things play out.  Econ statistics have been bearish showing that we may be dipping back into a recession.  Commodity futures and precious metals have traded up and the equity market has pulled back. 

Our gov't and the fed has created a mess and it's hard to see how we come out of this w/o another recession or high inflation.  Ultimately, I think you're seeing a global shift in capital.  We americans have to accept a lower standard of life as it balances out globaly and probably a swing back to more of a manufacturing economomy.

Reason for the negative outlook:  spending policy and entitlement programs.  We need to stop spending.  The only way out of this is to cause inflation.  The gov't is intentionally going to intentionally inflate themselves out of this.  Inflation is a tax on you.  The gov't is stealing from you when they do this.


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