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Offlineampakine
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Applying statistics/probability to gambling
    #14337112 - 04/23/11 05:09 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

I was in Las Vegas a couple of years ago and I thought my uncle had gone insane when he gets putting $100 chips on the 00 slot on the roulette table and losing over and over again but eventually it landed on 00 and he won all his money back plus at least $1000 more. At the time I didn't know anything about statistics and probability but now that I started studying it in college I see that it wasn't pure fluke on my uncles part that it landed on 00. The probability is 1/37 which isn't that low at all. My uncles worked in a casino for years but I couldn't understand how someone could become good at roulette from experience since I thought it was all about luck but it clearly isn't all about luck, the science of probability can be applied to it.

It gets me wondering though. Lets say I watch the monitor of a roulette table and 27 times in a row it hasn't landed on 00. According to probability theory the probability that it will land on 00 is now way higher than 1/37 but I still can't believe that I'm likely to win if I start putting my money on 00. Anyone here tried applying probability theory to gambling?


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OfflineGroovy Grant
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: ampakine]
    #14337144 - 04/23/11 05:33 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

I'm not sure that's how probability works. It has to do with iterations. In your examples you are describing two probabilities:

First, the probability of 00

second, the probability of not hitting 00 (e.g everything else happening)

The second is going to happen a whole lot more, but I don't think the number of times 00 does not occur has any affect on 00 occurring, if that makes sense. It's going to be completely random each time, and resets.


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Invisibleteknix
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: ampakine]
    #14337449 - 04/23/11 08:23 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

ampakine said:
I was in Las Vegas a couple of years ago and I thought my uncle had gone insane when he gets putting $100 chips on the 00 slot on the roulette table and losing over and over again but eventually it landed on 00 and he won all his money back plus at least $1000 more. At the time I didn't know anything about statistics and probability but now that I started studying it in college I see that it wasn't pure fluke on my uncles part that it landed on 00. The probability is 1/37 which isn't that low at all. My uncles worked in a casino for years but I couldn't understand how someone could become good at roulette from experience since I thought it was all about luck but it clearly isn't all about luck, the science of probability can be applied to it.

It gets me wondering though. Lets say I watch the monitor of a roulette table and 27 times in a row it hasn't landed on 00. According to probability theory the probability that it will land on 00 is now way higher than 1/37 but I still can't believe that I'm likely to win if I start putting my money on 00. Anyone here tried applying probability theory to gambling?




Nope, the probability remains 1/37 each time.

What you are talking about is the Gambler's Fallacy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy


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OfflineGroovy Grant
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: teknix]
    #14337663 - 04/23/11 10:17 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Gambler's Fallacy

Your link didn't work, but there it is.


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Offlineampakine
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Groovy Grant]
    #14338116 - 04/23/11 12:06 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

To simplify matters lets say the probability of it landing on red versus black. Lets say P(R1) is the probability of it landing on red on the 1st spin and P(R2) is the probability of it landing on red on the 2nd spin. P(R1) is 0.5 and P(R2) is still 0.5 but isn't the probability of it landing on red twice in a row:
P(R1 ∩ R2) = P(A1)*P(A2) = 0.5*0.5 = 0.25?


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Invisibleteknix
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: ampakine]
    #14338435 - 04/23/11 01:16 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Each time you roll the ball, there is 1/37 chance of it landing 00

What does the last roll have to do with the next roll?

Nothing.

All the numbers are still there, and the odds remain the same as before.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: ampakine]
    #14338649 - 04/23/11 02:06 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

I actually made RL money off the Martingale BUT it was an european table (no 00) and more importantly, I quit when I was ahead.

If you keep doing Martingales you WILL lose in almost all cases.

I did 5x supernatural Martingales on Rouge and Noir, I'd watch the game waiting for a 5x black (or red) then started betting against it.

You are 32x more LIKELY to win a 5x supernatural Martingale than a regular one.  But in the long run you can have a 1052x supernatural martingale as your starting point, you are STILL going to lose.

Play around with Roulette in the Shroomery Arcade. Its safe you wont lose money there but you will find out that NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO, YOUR ASS IS OWNED.

You really, REALLY cant beat roulette. Its mathematical perfection.


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #14338700 - 04/23/11 02:14 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
You really, REALLY cant beat roulette. Its mathematical perfection.




The modern science of statistics was developed to prove this exact point by Descartes, a roulette enthusiast.

Same statement can be made of all casino games- you can't beat them. That's why they let you play *those games*.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Doc_T]
    #14338928 - 04/23/11 03:06 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Know what would be an awesome game? A game where you have a 1 in 10 shot at 10x your bet. I'd play that game every day, I'd put 10 bets of $10 on it every day.

Here the casino and the player are equal partner, thats why you NEVER would see this game in a casino.

The balance here lies to breaking even, and the longer you play the closer you come to breaking even over your entire gambling career. What this basically does is redistribute your wealth, but neutrally. Some days you lose all, at other days, with 10 bets, you get up to $1000. The balance however will be an even split.

If you play this game for 20 years, in theory all the money of all those years is in a pool, you just need your days bet to access it. There will be weeks where you lose all and weeks where you're winning more than Charlie Sheen :awesome:

The way to liberate a roulette table is to stop enforcing the rule that 0 (and 00) draws all money to the bank. You can play this kind of roulette for all eternity and not lose one cent, sometimes you have epic gains, at other times epic losses.

You can take this game to RL by carrying a die with you and offering people this bet:

"pick any number 1-6, if you roll it, you get 6x your bet. I will commit to this game until YOU decide to quit or i'm broke."

Let them play as many times as they like. You'll find that for you its a semi cash-neutral affair cause you are part of all those rolls. You are an equal partner to the player, you both are betting on that one roll. You win some, lose some, in the end, you break even and the more often you play the closer you get to that. You can win with a smile and lose with a smile, in the end you break even.

Its important to pick a transparent die like these:



and let the better pick the number so they know you arent conning them.

A 10 sided die is ideal cause then you can let people bet you dollars to tenners.

You can do it for pints in the pub, or for joints with stoners. Outcome stays the same. Doing it for drugs can be even more fun cause lady luck will decide how high you both will get :yesnod: Its a great way to split a bottle you bought together with a friend, or several friends, passing the die around. Some are guaranteed to be more wasted than others, but over time, no one is left out. :awesome:

Applicable anywhere, even completely unprepared.
"say got a coin? if so, pick heads or tails and flip it. I win, you buy me a doughnut, you win, I buy you one" :grin:

You are NOT screwing someone over - you are playing a game of equals. Even though you appear to play bank by offering more you are really just being depository, the more you play it you will lose nor gain, but sometimes you have to pay 2 doughnuts and sometimes you get one for free. Let God decide who gets the break, in the end you break even.


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Edited by Asante (04/23/11 03:47 PM)


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InvisibleDoc_T
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #14339306 - 04/23/11 04:19 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Lotteries come close to that, if you count the payout to the state as a personal benefit.
There's some managerial overhead but by law money in equals money out.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Doc_T]
    #14339477 - 04/23/11 04:58 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Lotteries come nowhere near close to that. Even if its just one percent against you, you will lose more and more over time.

The only winning "betting game" in town (positive gain) is the stock exchange, and that only some of the time.


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #14339492 - 04/23/11 05:01 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Again, you have to count the declared share to the state as part of your winnings-
"If I win, I'll give half to the parks department!"<- like that.

Otherwise it's just the expenses of running the thing. Which may be 1% more or less, but is pretty minimal.


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Offlineampakine
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Doc_T]
    #14339578 - 04/23/11 05:16 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
You really, REALLY cant beat roulette. Its mathematical perfection.



Suppose I'll go back to counting cards then :frown:

Quote:

Doc_T said:
Same statement can be made of all casino games- you can't beat them. That's why they let you play *those games*.



With the exception of blackjacks. If counting cards counts as playing that is. And slot machines if using a light wand counts as playing them lol.


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: ampakine]
    #14339613 - 04/23/11 05:21 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Agreed, blackjack has the best odds for a skilled player, and skills make a bigger difference than some other games.
Poker is the same way, it's a game of skill as much as a game of chance.


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Invisibleteknix
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Doc_T]
    #14341727 - 04/24/11 01:13 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

We used to play a simple game with quarters, where we would flip them and hide them and one guy would call odd or even. When we both show our quarters if they are the same it is said to be even if it is a heads and tails it is said to be odd. So If you called it right you win, wrong you lose the quarter.


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Offlineazay
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: ampakine]
    #14342831 - 04/24/11 10:08 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

ampakine said:
At the time I didn't know anything about statistics and probability but now that I started studying it in college...

According to probability theory the probability that it will land on 00 is now way higher than 1/37




:goodluck:  :facepalm3:


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OfflineUniversalParadox
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: ampakine]
    #14346768 - 04/24/11 11:55 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

I have made programs in Q-Basic to test different strategies with roulette and they all bust.

Q-Basic is a basic computer program used for creating other computer programs.  I took a class in high school.

The odds do not change due to pass results.

The house will win if you stick around long enough.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: UniversalParadox]
    #14356331 - 04/26/11 05:06 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Craps can be a pretty near even game.  I don't remember the protocol, though, but I read a book about it that had sound statistics.  Of course it is well known that playing BJ and counting cards perfectly gives the player an advantage.  But that advantage only exists because the house is too fucking lazy to reshuffle.

Football betting is also pretty fair.  You only have to be right about 53% of the time to win.


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14356761 - 04/26/11 06:02 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

You're talking about "taking full odds" - best bet on the felt

Sports bets without a line are great bets but they don't usually have good payouts, it's too easy to call NFL games for example with better than 50/50 accuracy. Hence spreads/lines.

If you're going to bet a sport, MMA isn't a bad one - the inherent instability of it means huge underdogs upset quite a bit. Bookmakers may be catching up to that one.

There are some simple comp grifts on roulette or craps - you and a buddy walk in with ten grand, pretend you don't know each other, and bet 100+ a roll on opposing bets (black/red or pass/don't pass for example) and try to get comped things. The only prob. with this is it isn't very fun to pretend you don't know the people you came with all weekend! (and sometimes Joe Pesci breaks your knees lol)

a lot of reservation casinos throughout the midwest spread single deck blackjack and are NOT nearly as assiduous about card counting as the bigger places.

The only straight game you really can "beat" over time, by the rules, is poker, since you're taking the money of other patrons the house lets you win

For time at the table, IE just to play cheap to drink, play paigow at a table that's dealt by hand (this is a poker varient, not the actual chinese dominos game it's based on - DON'T play that, for the love of god)


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: JohnnyConverse]
    #14359644 - 04/27/11 05:46 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

There are some simple comp grifts on roulette or craps - you and a buddy walk in with ten grand, pretend you don't know each other, and bet 100+ a roll on opposing bets (black/red or pass/don't pass for example) and try to get comped things. The only prob. with this is it isn't very fun to pretend you don't know the people you came with all weekend!





:nonono:

If you put money on opposing bets (red/black for instance) the 0 and especially if theres a 00 too, will pwn your ass.

There is NO WINNING BET IN ROULETTE. None.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: ampakine]
    #14360011 - 04/27/11 08:29 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

ampakine said:
Lets say I watch the monitor of a roulette table and 27 times in a row it hasn't landed on 00. According to probability theory the probability that it will land on 00 is now way higher than 1/37



You need to learn things.




Probabilities are reset, as long as their is replacement.  Think about this.  There is a red, a blue, and a two white marbles in a bag.  What are your odds of pulling out a white one are 50%.  Now you pull out a red one.  Now there are only 3 marbles in there --- one blue and two white.  On your NEXT pull, since we didnt replace anything, your odds of pulling white are now 66%.  They've gone up.

But now lets assume after you pulled out that red one, you put a new red one back in.  What are your odds of pulling out a white marble on the second grab?  Still 50%.  Because its still just 2 white marbles and 2 non-white marbles.

Do you see numbers get crossed off the board when they're hit on a roulette table?  No.  Which is why the wheel can miss 00 800,000 times in a row, and it still has the EXACT same probability of landing on it.

There are ways to increase your chances of having a "positive" spin (winning a net gain).  But when you pursue those paths, the "neagative" side is more risky:

For example:  if you take $100 and place it on TWO out of THREE of the "sections-of-12".  Say I place $100 on 1-12, $100 on 13-24, and leave 25-36 empty.  That way there is a ~63% chance I'll hit either of those areas I have a bet on, adn will be paid 150% of my total bet amount (bet $200 on two spots, it hits on, win $300 on that one spot).  However, if it lands on 25-36 or 0 or 00, I lose all $200.

You get the idea.



The point of gambling is that the house has the edge.  THATS the probability game thats being played.  You can't out-think it in the long run.  YOu can get "hot" for a short while, but you ALWYAS LOSE IN THE END. [in roulette, if you keep playing]


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14367883 - 04/28/11 04:10 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

I did a thing at the roulette table once where I bet red (or black) every time and doubled my bet if I lost.  Eventually I won and pocketed the winning on what would have been the initial stakes.  But you have to have bank to do that and you can still get entirely fucked, I mean out big money, if you get on a really terrible streak of, say, 7 losses in a row.

There is no win in the casino.  Even for poker you have to beat the other players harder than you would at home.  Play poker with your buddies and maybe bet some sports.  Have fun and don't bet the rent.


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InvisibleJohnnyConverse
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14370155 - 04/28/11 10:49 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
I did a thing at the roulette table once where I bet red (or black) every time and doubled my bet if I lost.  Eventually I won and pocketed the winning on what would have been the initial stakes.  But you have to have bank to do that and you can still get entirely fucked, I mean out big money, if you get on a really terrible streak of, say, 7 losses in a row.

There is no win in the casino.  Even for poker you have to beat the other players harder than you would at home.  Play poker with your buddies and maybe bet some sports.  Have fun and don't bet the rent.




The doubling system is the "martingale" system mentioned earlier in the thread. It does, technically, guarantee an eventual return of one unit, if you have no table limits and no bankroll limits

Casino poker, limit in particular, is actually pretty beatable if you're good at poker - it only takes two "leaky" players at a table of nine for the others to have reasonable profit, and way more than 2/9ths of players are long term losers... no limit and tournament games get trickier and trickier


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14370225 - 04/28/11 11:02 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

thats clever zappa. do you keep the bet the same amount if you win?  then only double it when u lose?


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: zappaisgod]
    #14371297 - 04/29/11 05:52 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

I did a thing at the roulette table once where I bet red (or black) every time and doubled my bet if I lost.  Eventually I won and pocketed the winning on what would have been the initial stakes.





Thats what called the Martingale strategy, I reinvented it too before I heard of the term.

Quote:

But you have to have bank to do that and you can still get entirely fucked, I mean out big money, if you get on a really terrible streak of, say, 7 losses in a row.




I have personally seen 16x red back to back on an actual table and it cleaned most people out, myself included. 16x red is so improbable, such a huge number, its like the weight of the moon in pounds. Still, it happened. A Dutch State casino, it wasnt a rigged table in a backroom somewhere.

It was a fun night, but only cause I did the right thing: bring all the money you want to lose and assume you will, and make it a fun night with your friends after you do.

Quote:

Play poker with your buddies and maybe bet some sports.  Have fun and don't bet the rent.




Best advice right there. If you want to have fun gambling, take the bank out of the picture. Bank advantage means players loss, players advantage is no bank :smile:


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #14379757 - 04/30/11 09:42 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Been fiddlin with this Martingale strategy on free bodog roulette.  As long as your initial betting amount is small enough that you can double it without reaching the table limit, you're good to go.

Clearly, like Wiccan observed, runs of 16 will fuck you.  Even with a tiny initial bet like $10, that run of 16 would require you to be able to bet $327,680 in order to make that gain.


Might give it a try at the casino next time i'm in Wheeling using $10 betting incriments :shrug:


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Offlineriffdex
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: teknix]
    #14379934 - 04/30/11 10:23 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

teknix said:
Quote:

ampakine said:
I was in Las Vegas a couple of years ago and I thought my uncle had gone insane when he gets putting $100 chips on the 00 slot on the roulette table and losing over and over again but eventually it landed on 00 and he won all his money back plus at least $1000 more. At the time I didn't know anything about statistics and probability but now that I started studying it in college I see that it wasn't pure fluke on my uncles part that it landed on 00. The probability is 1/37 which isn't that low at all. My uncles worked in a casino for years but I couldn't understand how someone could become good at roulette from experience since I thought it was all about luck but it clearly isn't all about luck, the science of probability can be applied to it.

It gets me wondering though. Lets say I watch the monitor of a roulette table and 27 times in a row it hasn't landed on 00. According to probability theory the probability that it will land on 00 is now way higher than 1/37 but I still can't believe that I'm likely to win if I start putting my money on 00. Anyone here tried applying probability theory to gambling?




Nope, the probability remains 1/37 each time.

What you are talking about is the Gambler's Fallacy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy




Beat me to it, I was thinking the exact same thing !


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14380805 - 05/01/11 01:16 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

meams said:

Might give it a try at the casino next time i'm in Wheeling using $10 betting incriments :shrug:




So I was tired of playing starcraft II and figured i'd give this thing a whirl for fun.  I have a bodog account, and they have real money roulette.  So:  I used $1 as my starting bet (which means whith each successful correct pick, my dollar incriment would be increasing by ONE, regardless of how many  losses were prior).  The most losses I encountered in a row was 3, and even then my bet on the 4th spin was still only $8.

Took about 10min of fiddling around with it (stuck to it strictly), slowly but surely turned the $110 i started with into $125.  Edit#2: $150 now.

fun!


Edited by memes (05/01/11 01:32 AM)


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14381287 - 05/01/11 04:33 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

You can crunch the numbers real well Meams so you know that sooner or later that win becomes a loss.

One of the best bets on the roulette table is a Martingale, but even that is a loss.

Quit while you are ahead, or at leat take your initial money out of your gains so that you play for the lulz.


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Edited by Asante (05/01/11 04:34 AM)


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #14381518 - 05/01/11 07:01 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

The thing about martingale is at the end of the day you're making a big risk fora one unit payoff


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: JohnnyConverse]
    #14381549 - 05/01/11 07:22 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Yes yes, Wiccan & Johnny, I am aware of these factors :wink:

I ain't bettin' no rent money!


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14381584 - 05/01/11 07:45 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

P.S.  I think this will be a fun internet experiment.  I wonder how long it will take me to encounter a mega-long run?

The bodog table has a min bet of $1 and max of $300 on any givren roll, so with my $1 starting bet I am good-to-go on that table until I lose 9 times in a row.... then the 10th bet ($512) is too big.

I've also considered sitting down with only the money to lose 6 in a row ($32).  Since the odds of sitting down and playing 6 rolls and losing 6 times are something like 2%, I'd feel more comfortable bringing only that amount, then rolling till its like $40, then bounce. 

While there would be some "Trips to the table" where I happen to lose that 6x "buyin", I think over the long run, the ratio of successful wins (bring $32 to $40) will be greater than 5:1, which will cover the 1 loss of $32.


I dunno - just pitterpattering around with numbers in my head :wink:


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14381777 - 05/01/11 09:21 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Welp, just realized that in my above post i did my math a little wrong.  It only takes 4 successfull "sit downs" to be able to cover the loss of one "sit down".  Since $32 (one buyin) is equal to the winnings ($8/time) of four sessions.

I'm keeping an excel spreadsheet with the data from each "sit down".  This is going to be a fun e'spirament.

Takes about ~4min to get that $8, so dont think i'm spending all day doing this.  :wink:


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes] * 1
    #14387523 - 05/02/11 09:11 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

13 "successfuL" sit-downs so far

3 times have I "lost" - which means I've come across a run of losses through my $1, 2, 4, 8, and 16 dollar bets.  If I had won a round or two or seven before that, I cash out those monies at the end of hte round.  So my three losing rounds starting with $32 ended in losses of $29, $31, and $25.

One time I had just lost 3 in a row and was making my 4th bet when the server crashed, so i lost $11 on that sitting.



+$8 so far.  :wink:  The ordering was:


Win
Win
Win
Win
Win
(-29)
(-11) Page Freeze
Win
(-31)
(-25)
win
win
win
win
win
win
win


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14393575 - 05/03/11 09:27 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Holy crap man you're winning :winning:

Careful now, you know the house cannot be beat longterm.


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #14394106 - 05/03/11 12:01 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

all my money's gone.  house always wins :smile:


fun expirament though.  Its a shame I never walk away from the table when I'm up.


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14395414 - 05/03/11 05:07 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

Wiccan said:

Quit while you are ahead, or at least take your initial money out of your gains so that you play for the lulz.





Ah man if you had fun and didnt pimp the cat its all good. I had the same experience doing the Martingale, at first you win win win then you go on a lose lose lose lose streak.

When I walked away I still had multiple times what I brought to the table though. I saw happening RL what I had seen in simulations in the Shroomery arcade, a wining streak turning into a losing streak, and I pulled out.

You cant COUNT on starting out with a winning streak, but in simulations and for real it was what usually happened.


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #14396597 - 05/03/11 08:21 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

It was fun while it lasted.  Streaks where I hit two reds in a row would lead me to think "well, theres already been two reds, blacks gotta come eventually, i've already got two red-in-a-row-in-the-whole".

Then there'd be no trend in red/black but i'd realize the last 4 numbers had been even.  Well, gotta be odd eventually, lets up that starting bet a bit since we'll prob hit one soon :wink:


Lol lots of fun.  I usually hit up wheeling island when we go back to ohio regardless of whether or not i plan on going to the casino, so i'll revive this thread after my next trip up that way and let ya know how mcuh i lost(won)


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14398748 - 05/04/11 08:09 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

Streaks where I hit two reds in a row would lead me to think "well, theres already been two reds, blacks gotta come eventually, i've already got two red-in-a-row-in-the-whole"





"supernatural" Martingales.

What I did was let the wheel spin and spin and only do a run after five times The One, betting on The Other. (rouge/noir, pair/impair, 1-18/19-36)

We both know some maths, it doesnt affect the next spin's odds so thats why I call em "supernatural", its based on superstition, a system you can kind of rely on a bit but NEVER depend on.


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Edited by Asante (05/04/11 08:11 AM)


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #14399188 - 05/04/11 10:15 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Yep.  Supernatural makes perfect sense.  Of course the probability is always the same.  But goddamnit, an odd has to come eventually!  And if theres already been 4 even's in a row....


..... :wink:



What fun!


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14401069 - 05/04/11 05:23 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Please note that ODD + RED and EVEN + BLACK go well together.

Red has 10 Odd and 8 Even
Black has 10 Even and 8 Odd

So if you chip Red and Odd you have more chance of a double win than Red + Even. Same in reverse for black.

Theres a similar association between Red + 3rd and Black + 2nd

With compound bets you can calculate exactly which odds you want.


EVERYBODY READING THIS: PLEASE REALIZE THERE IS NO WINNING BET OR BETTING SYSTEM FOR ROULETTE. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE. IT IS A MATHEMATICALLY PERFECT NEGATIVE SUM GAME.


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Edited by Asante (05/04/11 05:26 PM)


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #14401326 - 05/04/11 06:32 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

I liked the bolded red part :wink:


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14713935 - 07/04/11 01:30 AM (12 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

I usually hit up wheeling island when we go back to ohio regardless of whether or not i plan on going to the casino, so i'll revive this thread after my next trip up that way and let ya know how mcuh i lost(won)




As promised, I am reviving this thread.  I've been in Ohio since friday afternoon w/ my girl.  I went to wheeling island briefly yesterday afternoon (-60) and again last night after my girl fell asleep from like 12:00 until 3:30 or so (-80 in chips -20 in beer).  Tonight we got done fucking around 2 and i was still awake, so i went down to wheeling island again.

Didn't play the nightengale at all due to the $10 minimum, but it came into play at times when I was playing outside bets.  Toward the end of the night I had lost all my singles ($1-valued colored chips used to play the inside) and was only playing outside bets with quarters ($25) that i had won "on top" in previous big hits (the back to back $140 wins from the 30s).

Got my $75 in quarters up to 150, down to 100, down to 50, and finally up to $225. 






We were in the midst of a long run of low-value numbers, so I wanted to play the 19-36, thinking i'd double up on it if it didnt come.  I'm currently at $225.


1.  Bet $25.  Misses, 9 red.  Down to $200.
2.  Bet $50.  Misses, 00 green.  Down to $150. 

At this point it had been an obscene amount of time since a high number had hit.  I knew that odds dictated this to be an irrelevant fact, but i felt strong.

3.  Bet $150 on 19-36.  33 Black.  meams leaves the casino w/ $300.





$300-60-80-20-100 = 40 net gain on the weekend, including the uncalculated benefit of hours of entertaining roulette play, qualitiy conversations with dealers, and jovial times with fellow gamblers.

I love the casino!  We have none in VA so every time i come here it's a novelty.


Ahhhhh wheeling island:




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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14714201 - 07/04/11 03:52 AM (12 years, 6 months ago)

Just don't develop a gambling addiction OK?

Its a losing game in the long run, you're scientific-minded enough to know that.


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #14714665 - 07/04/11 08:34 AM (12 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
Just don't develop a gambling addiction OK?




I already have a gambling addiction -- at least to the same extent that I have any other addiction.  I sadly have a very addictive personality. 

But this morning I relaize that the only reason I have $300 as opposed to $0 is because my last roll was very lucky.  Period.  It felt really nice walking away while i was ahead.  I think in the future i'll play value nickles or some other real chip (not table tokes) so that I can just walk away from the table after a nice win.  Having a big pile of singles to chip-up makes walking away from the table a hassle.


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
    #14714933 - 07/04/11 10:03 AM (12 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

meams said:
Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
Just don't develop a gambling addiction OK?




I already have a gambling addiction --



So after going to bed at about 5am last night, I wake up today at around 10 and my girl is still asleep.  I diddled around on the computer for a whlie, but the basement of her monther's house gets terrible wireless reception, so i said fuck it and put my clothes back on to head to the island.  hahaha.

Originally planned on buying in with the $40 profit from the weeekend.  Brought a $100 bill with me (what i cashed outw/ last night) and when i got there the cashier line ( to break my $100 down to 20s) was SOOOO long.  So i just bought in w/ the 100.  Got my 20 red nickles.


Sit down for my first spin, and see my GF has called & texted me to tell me she's awake.  GODDAMNIT!  Sat there for a bit, did allright.  After about 10 minutes I realized I should be heading back home (we're supposed to be oging ot breakfast) so i bet $15 on odd, as there has been a string of 5 even numbers.  Even again.  Fuck. 

At this point, I'm sitting at around.  $110.  I knew I had to go, that it hadn't been odd in forever, and that I needed to leave with at lesat $60, so that I didnt go into the red for the weekend.  I took $60 aside, bet evertything else on odd, and it hit, hard.  Left the table w/ 160 after giving a $5 tip to the dealer.

winning!  Now I'm +100 for the weekend and we're driving back to VA in a few hours.  No time to lose all my winnings - horray!

:smile:


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
    #18976268 - 10/14/13 11:54 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
I actually made RL money off the Martingale BUT it was an european table (no 00) and more importantly, I quit when I was ahead.

If you keep doing Martingales you WILL lose in almost all cases.






ill give it a try on the shroomery arcade, i was playing elsewhere with a starting balance of $500 (i figured if i ever went to a casino in RL thats what i would have

so my base bet $5 i would only keep doubling it if i lost, if i won my money back, it was back to betting $5

i made it too $600 then all shit broke loose, when i was back down to 500 i knew i should stop, but i kept betting, also the table's cap at $100 a bet didnt help


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: hidenseek1]
    #18976695 - 10/14/13 01:47 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

i find if you get lucky near the beginning, you can just set a limit not to go under and its like a auto win

for example once i got my 500 to 700 i would walk away once my money was down to 550, enough to recover my winnings and go out out for sushi after

i was wondering if it would make sense to split the original 500 with a friend before hand so each has 250 and one plays martingale on red while the other plays martingale on black


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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: hidenseek1]
    #19079261 - 11/03/13 08:23 AM (10 years, 2 months ago)

I know people who play thousands on roulette table.

Basically Martingale system. But that system is never certain, and host can actually affect the game by the way he/she throws the ball. Internet casinos are mostly rigged anyway (thats why its easy win in demo mode).

What he does is bet one chip on red or black. Loses, puts one more chip on the opposite colour. Loses again, puts one more chip etc.
Eventually he bet like 2000, and got it back, won 5 dollars.


Riskier version is true Martingale, where you bet on the same colour and always double when you lose. But usually there is a betting limit and you have limited funds. 10 cents can easily rise up to hundreds.

Statistics tell the probability, but probability is not certanity. There is always 50% chance that probability does not happen. Like, you could have one colour 20 times a row. I once had 19 blacks.

Of course when you do it on 0, paybacks are nicer, but you must have really big funds because you may have to wait a long time. American roulette is riskier anyway bechause of 00. Play european where there is only one 0.

Needless to say I have lost on Martingale pretty badly in the past.


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Edited by Simms (11/03/13 08:26 AM)


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