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Asante
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Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,799
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
#14401069 - 05/04/11 05:23 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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Please note that ODD + RED and EVEN + BLACK go well together.
Red has 10 Odd and 8 Even Black has 10 Even and 8 Odd
So if you chip Red and Odd you have more chance of a double win than Red + Even. Same in reverse for black.
Theres a similar association between Red + 3rd and Black + 2nd
With compound bets you can calculate exactly which odds you want.
EVERYBODY READING THIS: PLEASE REALIZE THERE IS NO WINNING BET OR BETTING SYSTEM FOR ROULETTE. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE. IT IS A MATHEMATICALLY PERFECT NEGATIVE SUM GAME.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
Edited by Asante (05/04/11 05:26 PM)
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memes
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
#14401326 - 05/04/11 06:32 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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I liked the bolded red part
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memes
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
#14713935 - 07/04/11 01:30 AM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
I usually hit up wheeling island when we go back to ohio regardless of whether or not i plan on going to the casino, so i'll revive this thread after my next trip up that way and let ya know how mcuh i lost(won)
As promised, I am reviving this thread. I've been in Ohio since friday afternoon w/ my girl. I went to wheeling island briefly yesterday afternoon (-60) and again last night after my girl fell asleep from like 12:00 until 3:30 or so (-80 in chips -20 in beer). Tonight we got done fucking around 2 and i was still awake, so i went down to wheeling island again.
Didn't play the nightengale at all due to the $10 minimum, but it came into play at times when I was playing outside bets. Toward the end of the night I had lost all my singles ($1-valued colored chips used to play the inside) and was only playing outside bets with quarters ($25) that i had won "on top" in previous big hits (the back to back $140 wins from the 30s).
Got my $75 in quarters up to 150, down to 100, down to 50, and finally up to $225.
We were in the midst of a long run of low-value numbers, so I wanted to play the 19-36, thinking i'd double up on it if it didnt come. I'm currently at $225.
1. Bet $25. Misses, 9 red. Down to $200. 2. Bet $50. Misses, 00 green. Down to $150.
At this point it had been an obscene amount of time since a high number had hit. I knew that odds dictated this to be an irrelevant fact, but i felt strong.
3. Bet $150 on 19-36. 33 Black. meams leaves the casino w/ $300.
$300-60-80-20-100 = 40 net gain on the weekend, including the uncalculated benefit of hours of entertaining roulette play, qualitiy conversations with dealers, and jovial times with fellow gamblers.
I love the casino! We have none in VA so every time i come here it's a novelty.
Ahhhhh wheeling island:


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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,799
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
#14714201 - 07/04/11 03:52 AM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Just don't develop a gambling addiction OK?
Its a losing game in the long run, you're scientific-minded enough to know that.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
#14714665 - 07/04/11 08:34 AM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Wiccan_Seeker said: Just don't develop a gambling addiction OK?
I already have a gambling addiction -- at least to the same extent that I have any other addiction. I sadly have a very addictive personality.
But this morning I relaize that the only reason I have $300 as opposed to $0 is because my last roll was very lucky. Period. It felt really nice walking away while i was ahead. I think in the future i'll play value nickles or some other real chip (not table tokes) so that I can just walk away from the table after a nice win. Having a big pile of singles to chip-up makes walking away from the table a hassle.
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: memes]
#14714933 - 07/04/11 10:03 AM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
meams said:
Quote:
Wiccan_Seeker said: Just don't develop a gambling addiction OK?
I already have a gambling addiction --
So after going to bed at about 5am last night, I wake up today at around 10 and my girl is still asleep. I diddled around on the computer for a whlie, but the basement of her monther's house gets terrible wireless reception, so i said fuck it and put my clothes back on to head to the island. hahaha.
Originally planned on buying in with the $40 profit from the weeekend. Brought a $100 bill with me (what i cashed outw/ last night) and when i got there the cashier line ( to break my $100 down to 20s) was SOOOO long. So i just bought in w/ the 100. Got my 20 red nickles.
Sit down for my first spin, and see my GF has called & texted me to tell me she's awake. GODDAMNIT! Sat there for a bit, did allright. After about 10 minutes I realized I should be heading back home (we're supposed to be oging ot breakfast) so i bet $15 on odd, as there has been a string of 5 even numbers. Even again. Fuck.
At this point, I'm sitting at around. $110. I knew I had to go, that it hadn't been odd in forever, and that I needed to leave with at lesat $60, so that I didnt go into the red for the weekend. I took $60 aside, bet evertything else on odd, and it hit, hard. Left the table w/ 160 after giving a $5 tip to the dealer.
winning! Now I'm +100 for the weekend and we're driving back to VA in a few hours. No time to lose all my winnings - horray!
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hidenseek1
Its got all the dinks.
Registered: 12/22/12
Posts: 5,423
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Last seen: 6 years, 10 months
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: Asante]
#18976268 - 10/14/13 11:54 AM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Wiccan_Seeker said: I actually made RL money off the Martingale BUT it was an european table (no 00) and more importantly, I quit when I was ahead.
If you keep doing Martingales you WILL lose in almost all cases.
ill give it a try on the shroomery arcade, i was playing elsewhere with a starting balance of $500 (i figured if i ever went to a casino in RL thats what i would have
so my base bet $5 i would only keep doubling it if i lost, if i won my money back, it was back to betting $5
i made it too $600 then all shit broke loose, when i was back down to 500 i knew i should stop, but i kept betting, also the table's cap at $100 a bet didnt help
-------------------- You can drink at 7 A.M., because the Beastie Boys fought for that right -------------------------------------------------------------------------- pons asinorum -------------------------------------------------------------------------- lsd and the vietnam war changed music forever
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hidenseek1
Its got all the dinks.
Registered: 12/22/12
Posts: 5,423
Loc: poop
Last seen: 6 years, 10 months
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: hidenseek1]
#18976695 - 10/14/13 01:47 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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i find if you get lucky near the beginning, you can just set a limit not to go under and its like a auto win
for example once i got my 500 to 700 i would walk away once my money was down to 550, enough to recover my winnings and go out out for sushi after
i was wondering if it would make sense to split the original 500 with a friend before hand so each has 250 and one plays martingale on red while the other plays martingale on black
-------------------- You can drink at 7 A.M., because the Beastie Boys fought for that right -------------------------------------------------------------------------- pons asinorum -------------------------------------------------------------------------- lsd and the vietnam war changed music forever
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Simms
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Registered: 11/17/08
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Re: Applying statistics/probability to gambling [Re: hidenseek1]
#19079261 - 11/03/13 08:23 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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I know people who play thousands on roulette table.
Basically Martingale system. But that system is never certain, and host can actually affect the game by the way he/she throws the ball. Internet casinos are mostly rigged anyway (thats why its easy win in demo mode).
What he does is bet one chip on red or black. Loses, puts one more chip on the opposite colour. Loses again, puts one more chip etc. Eventually he bet like 2000, and got it back, won 5 dollars.
Riskier version is true Martingale, where you bet on the same colour and always double when you lose. But usually there is a betting limit and you have limited funds. 10 cents can easily rise up to hundreds.
Statistics tell the probability, but probability is not certanity. There is always 50% chance that probability does not happen. Like, you could have one colour 20 times a row. I once had 19 blacks.
Of course when you do it on 0, paybacks are nicer, but you must have really big funds because you may have to wait a long time. American roulette is riskier anyway bechause of 00. Play european where there is only one 0.
Needless to say I have lost on Martingale pretty badly in the past.
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Edited by Simms (11/03/13 08:26 AM)
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