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OfflinePhred
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: hongomon]
    #1453812 - 04/13/03 12:15 AM (18 years, 1 month ago)

Interesting article, and you're right -- I do appreciate it. Now there's a philanthropist who is doing more for the problem of overpopulation with his freely given donations than probably six times the equivalent amount of money seized through taxes -- with large chunks of that seized money being absorbed at every level of bureaucracy between the taxpayer and the ultimate recipient in Africa.

I love reading stories like that. One could accurately state that his individual liberty directly results in a responsibility to the whole.

Of course those here who believe in an American secret plan for world domination will probably say that this guy is a pawn to American interests whose real mission is to lower the number of Africans in the world through cutting their birthrate, so that the US will have an easier time invading and subjugating them a few years down the road -- but, hey! You can't please 'em all.

pinky


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Offlinehongomon
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Registered: 04/14/02
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: Phred]
    #1454861 - 04/13/03 05:18 PM (18 years, 1 month ago)

PInky writes:
Not at all. I am genuinely curious as to what actions you feel the developed nations should take to address the problem.

Then let me repeat my apologies.

PInky:
Do you deny that in some developing countries a family may have more children die before the age of five than children who make it to sexual maturity? If so, I can steer you to some humanitarian websites working in Africa who provide statistics about this kind of thing. More to the point (as you noted with your "old ideas die hard" comment), the people in these countries who keep having more children are not always those who have read the latest infant mortality surveys for their region and are willing to trust the statisticians when they tell them they need less children. Many cannot read at all. Their personal experience and that of almost all their neighbors can be summed up in the phrase "children die".

Fair enough--I see where you're coming from.  I still don't, however, see this belief as the primary factor.  If anything, that old idea which dies hard is found innately in all humans and is known as libido: we're all as horny as the next; the real difference in population growth being where there is wide use of birth control and where there is not.  (I admit the libido threory is my own speculation, akin to the theory that our love of fatty foods comes from way back when they were harder to come by.) 

One large factor I see (and my travels in South America have bolstered this) is the Catholic Church's staunch position against birth control.  You once mentioned that in the Dominican Rebublic making babies was the national passtime; I have a feeling that the Catholic Church plays some role in that.  Like I said, people are horny, and if condoms are tabboo in the eyes of the La Virgin, well....

There is also a good chance that rather than posterity in that biological sense that all creatures desire, these parents are interested in creating a work force.  Granted, in a lot of developing countries this is a pretty hard reason to argue against.  Unfortunately, it's especially hard to argue when the parents, working full-time, are still below the poverty level.  But that takes us to another topic--the tendency of industry owners, using their god-given right of individual liberty, to move their factories into places such as war-torn (insert country here) and "entice" abjectly poor people to work in their factories.  And often to move it again a few years later when a cheaper spot of labor force opens up somewhere else.  What do you think about that?

Europe and the U.S. both went through a phase where a family's kids had to chip in to some degree, so let's not assume that I'm making a sweeping statement about the evils of child labor.  But nor do I think that it's perfectly fine in every case we see around the world.  But this brings us back to that tired discussion we had a while back about child labor.  I have to say I put a lot of time into that, only to hear you mention to someone else that much of your position with me was "tongue in cheek".  Well, I don't know what that meant exactly, but like you, I value my energy and don't feel like wasting it.  :grin:

But all the postulations on how to help control population fall short in the absence of one thing (besides toppling the Catholic Church): education.  As you said of these developing countries, " Many cannot read at all.   The education factor is also a prime factor of the U.S.'s own population problem.  Now I'm not going to claim that I think that the burden falls entirely on the U.S. and other developed nations to improve education in third-world countries, but shouldn't some of it?  I've been thinking a lot lately about the notion of a single world power (e.g. the long, four-part paper that Silversoul7 posted a while back was pretty good), and if it is a fact that the world is better off with a superpower that behaves with a global interest, shouldn't population be one of its concerns?  And doesn't education play a role in that?

My time is up (I'm at a public library, but I'll be trying to continue this soon.)

hongomon

(edited for typos)


Edited by hongomon (04/13/03 06:07 PM)


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OfflinePhred
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Registered: 10/19/00
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: hongomon]
    #1454988 - 04/13/03 06:12 PM (18 years, 1 month ago)

hongomon writes:

If anything, that old idea which dies hard is found innately in all humans and is known as libido: we're all as horny as the next; the real difference in population growth being where there is wide use of birth control and where there is not.

I won't argue with that.

One large factor I see (and my travels in South America have bolstered this) is the Catholic Church's staunch position against birth control. You once mentioned that in the Dominican Rebublic making babies was the national passtime; I have a feeling that the Catholic Church plays some role in that. Like I said, people are horny, and if condoms are tabboo in the eyes of the La Virgin, well....

Again, you'll get no argument from me. As an atheist, I have been convinced for decades that the benefits of organized religion are outweighed by its drawbacks. The Catholic Church's absurd stance on birth control is just one of the more visible negative effects of religions on humanity in general.

But that takes us to another topic--the tendency of industry owners, using their god-given right of individual liberty, to move their factories into places such as war-torn (insert country here) and "entice" abjectly poor people to work in their factories. And often to move it again a few years later when a cheaper spot of labor force opens up somewhere else. What do you think about that?

You have read my thoughts on this issue several times in the past. In brief, I think the more options people are presented in how to make a living, the better off they are. As a longtime resident of a developing nation, I have ample experience with foreign investment and how the people of that nation benefit from it.

But this brings us back to that tired discussion we had a while back about child labor. I have to say I put a lot of time into that, only to hear you mention to someone else that much of your position with me was "tongue in cheek". Well, I don't know what that meant exactly, but like you, I value my energy and don't feel like wasting it.

I suggest you re-read those posts of mine. A very small percentage of what I said was "tongue-in-cheek". The vast majority of it addressed seriously your issues, and the rest merely pointed out (humorously) that to affluent westerners, the thought of children of 14 years or so working to help support their families is practically an abomination, whereas to the actual people involved (children included), it has been a natural part of their history since time immemorial. If you hadn't gotten so pious about it, I would have let it go a lot earlier.

Now I'm not going to claim that I think that the burden falls on the U.S. and other developed nations to improve education in third-world countries, but shouldn't some of it?

Why?

Also note that huge amounts of foreign aid money is directly spent on educational facilities, and that private groups expend vast amounts of time and money on helping educate the children of developing nations. I have met personally dozens (probably closer to a hundred by now) of teachers who choose to come here and teach in pretty tough conditions for barely a living wage for a year or three, then move on.

I've been thinking a lot lately about the notion of a single world power (e.g. the long, four-part paper that Silversoul7 posted a while back was pretty good)...

Yeah, that was pretty good, wasn't it? I was impressed.

... and if it is a fact that the world is better off with a superpower that behaves with a global interest, shouldn't population be one of its concerns? And doesn't education play a role in that?

Well, you do realize that there are very few posters here who believe there can ever be such a thing as a superpower capable of behaving with a global interest, but let's presume for the sake of argument that such an entity exists, or may one day exists. In that case ---

--- your question is not easy to answer definitively. Most countries get pretty prickly at the implication that they are incapable of properly educating their own populace, and bridle at what they see as the "patronizing" offers of any superpower to improve on their efforts. They also (particularly the more religious ones) see "foreign style education" as a threat to their national identities and heritages, and (to be more cynical) a threat to their control over the populace.

This near-irreconcilable clash of perceived interests has most often historically resulted in the "solution" of just handing the money over to the governments in question and hoping that at least some of it might actually eventually be spent on decent education.

What's the answer? Not sure yet. But I can tell you that unless the nation in question is led by a government with the honesty, and more importantly, the political will to commit to a real improvement in the education of its people, throwing money at that government is the worst thing to do.

pinky


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Offlinehongomon
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Registered: 04/14/02
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: Phred]
    #1455070 - 04/13/03 06:48 PM (18 years, 1 month ago)

Pinky, I really enjoyed your reply. Unfortunately, I'm once again at a public library, and this one allows even less time per user, so I can't continue my response to the rest of your previous article, let alone address this one.

But I do want to respond with the little time I do have left to one comment. You mentioned in reference to the "race to the bottom" method of industry movement (you may take issue with the term, I dunno) was somehow good in providing more options to the population of a developing nation. I disagree. I believe there should be some regulation in that regard. I have an article from the New Leader (a magazine I'm sure you hate) by Gus Tyler (who you may also dislike) that discusses this problem. Since I can't find it on-line, I'm thinking of typing in at least some of the parts I think are pertienent. Of course, this won't happen now, as I have been given a two-minute warning.



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OfflinePsilocybeingzz
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: hongomon]
    #1455199 - 04/13/03 07:55 PM (18 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

  we seem for some reason inable to sufficiently confront the problem of overpopulation;




well , overpopulation is not the problem YET

Overconsumption is , poor countries dont use the same ammounts of food , water , chemicals , etc etc etc etc

the developed nations are the ones causing this horrible rape of the earth , however , large populations of people in the poor countries are pushing closer and closer to this
"western lifestyle"
and when they reach our "standard of living" (even thought I dont thinkl you have to destroy the earth to live a "good life" , thats what we are doing currently)
when they catch up
WELL ........
then we have serious problems
for example if eveyonein the world  lived like the average american
we would need 4 MORE PLANETS !!!!! just for food , water fuel, trees, etc etc etc

one last thing the easy thing that could be dont RIGHT NOW for the earth is legalizing hemp which would solve MANY of our problems I would go on and preach the hemps greatness but

I feel that might be preaching to the converted  :grin: 


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Offlinehongomon
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Registered: 04/14/02
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: Phred]
    #1458447 - 04/14/03 10:48 PM (18 years, 30 days ago)

Okay, I'm back.

Pinky writes:
Whoa, whoa, whoa! I didn't introduce the term, you did. You made an undetailed general claim:
"we've been doing a fine job of establishing the concept of individual liberty in its respectful place over the past few centuries, but somehow the notion of responsibility to the whole, to society, hasn't enjoyed the same progress."
I made a mental note that you had provided no supporting evidence for your claim that the notion of responsibility to society hasn't enjoyed the same progress, but let it slide and instead responded with an equally general, undetailed claim that there is a direct connection between the spread of individual liberty and increased responsibility to society. Since both our claims were so general and unsupported, I felt it unnecessary to ask at that point for your working definition of "the whole" or "society". Why bother? It took maybe fifteen seconds to compose and type my comment.

You know, this part of our discourse reminds me of being in the third grade. Which isn't a bad thing, since I enjoyed the third grade. So let's ignore the fact that it really doesn't matter that you didn't introduce the term, I did (since you seemed perfectly comfortable using it in your claim); let's also pretend that responding to a vague statement with another vague statement is a valid form of discussion; and let's forget that I said I was perfectly willing to accept your definition of "responsibility to society", just so that I could hear how it is that individual liberty, when consistently practiced, leads to a responsibilty to society. (EVEN if the definition of "responsibility to society" is one I don't particulary accept, I'd love to hear how this is anything but illogical.)

So let's use the Phil Harvey example. While it certainly doesn't cover all the bases, at least this is an example of social responsibiltiy we can agree on. You mentioned in your response to that post that "One could accurately state that his individual liberty directly results in a responsibility to the whole."

Why? His individual liberty could have just as easily led him to keep evey cent he earned. In fact, philanthropists like Harvey are the exception. So I'm still trying to understand what you mean when you claim that properly implemented individual liberty will naturally lead to more social responsibility, as in the kind of social responsibility exhibited by Harvey.

A while back I posted an article about how Oprah Winfrey just made it into the billionaire club (link) My point was that there seems to be a lot more interest in who makes a lot of money than who gives a lot away, a fact I find disturbing. Notice the part in bold about a Swiss billionaire who gave it all away! Burried!

If your still dissatisfied with my lack of a comprehensive definition of "society", well, maybe I'll try harder next time. At the moment I'm reeling from a bout with tequila I never should have entered. Damn agave plant should never have been invented.

hongomon


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: Evolving]
    #1518060 - 05/03/03 08:20 PM (18 years, 11 days ago)

More data

A lot of technicalities, but the basic summary is that the Global Warming team have been cooking the books not just of the historical data, but of the most current data as well. Satellite measurements from 1979 onwards show the computer model they rely on contradicts what the actual measurements show.

So what is the reaction of the Global Warmers? Discredit the data, rather than adjust the model. "The theory can't be wrong, it just can't be. This is the largest supercomputer in the world we got here, telling us what's gonna happen."

Whatever the Global Warmers are basing their predictions on (precognition? divine revelation? time travellers from the future?), it certainly isn't empirical evidence.

pinky


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Offlinejimsuzo
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Registered: 08/14/02
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: Evolving]
    #1518125 - 05/03/03 08:51 PM (18 years, 11 days ago)

Speaking as someone with a masters degree in geology, I can assure you that there's no doubt the Earth has been warmer in the geological past. In the upper Cretaceous in fact (roughly 60-100 million years ago), the rate of volcanic outgassing (eruptions) was incredibly high. Tmeperatures and and global sea level, and probably CO2 concentrations were higher than presently observed. A shallow sea covered much of the western US on the eastern side of what is now the Rocky Mountains. Yes, there have also been many short-duration climatic fluctuations and mini-ice ages on top it all, as companies like Exxon love to point out. The problem is this: NEVER, EVER in the last 4.6 billion years (the age of the Earth) has there been vast deforestation superimposed on top of one of these climatic events. That, my friends is the kicker. Whether or not there's conlcusive evidence for the evil 'Greenhouse Effect' at the present is irrelavant to most rational scientisits such as myself. CO2 concentations are up (maybe not as high as in the past), but Deforestation is WAY UP. I think most everyone know that trees absorb Co2. It's trouble folks, Big Trouble and by the time the money-hungry politicians and big oil companies get their 'conclusive proof', it's gonna be too late. One of my favorite analogies is that the Earth will be a skillet on an electric stove that has gotten too hot. What do you do? - turn the stove off. Does that prevent your food from burning? Nah, it still crispy fries because it takes a while for that old electric burner to cool down. Too little too late.

It's time to act now, people. See what you personally can do to help control global warming at the link below.

http://www.canadachallenge.org/


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There are roughly nine galaxies for every person alive on the planet today. Each of these galaxies has a billion suns, give or take the odd hundred million


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InvisibleEvolving
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: jimsuzo]
    #1518560 - 05/04/03 01:15 AM (18 years, 10 days ago)

Quote:

Speaking as someone with a masters degree in geology



Does this make you an expert on all the unknown forces at work during the history of the climate of the earth?

Quote:

I can assure you that there's no doubt the Earth has been warmer in the geological past.



This is widely accepted.

Quote:

The problem is this: NEVER, EVER in the last 4.6 billion years (the age of the Earth) has there been vast deforestation superimposed on top of one of these climatic events.



The problem is that you really don't know this. Are you really that arrogant to think that you have an accurate picture of the entire history of the earth? Tell me, can you predict the weather accurately from one week to the next? How about for the next year? You REALLY don't know. Have you read Pinky's link?

Now if you're concerned about deforestation, I suggest that you make an effort to stop funding the World bank and various foreign 'development' schemes which underwrite this activity. They are encouraging irrational land use through our tax dollars.


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To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.'  Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence.  Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains.  Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: jimsuzo]
    #1518691 - 05/04/03 02:45 AM (18 years, 10 days ago)

NEVER, EVER in the last 4.6 billion years (the age of the Earth) has there been vast deforestation superimposed on top of one of these climatic events

Excellent point jim.


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Don't worry, B. Caapi


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Offlinejimsuzo
I am the Eggman

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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: Evolving]
    #1518935 - 05/04/03 05:44 AM (18 years, 10 days ago)

Quote:

Does this make you an expert on all the unknown forces at work during the history of the climate of the earth?


No, but certainly I'm much more of an expert than your average shroomer. Do you know what a Milankovitch cycle is, how frequently they occurred during the Pleistocene, and what their impact on global climatic change is? What about axial precession?

Quote:

This is widely accepted.


no shit. i was simply agreeing with the initial post so that everyone knows I accept that current temperatures and Co2 concentrations alone are NOT the critical issues. Rather, it is the fact that the deforestation is superimposed upon these factors.

Quote:

Are you really that arrogant to think that you have an accurate picture of the entire history of the earth?


no. Why are you putting words into my mouth and why are you assuming I'm being arrogant by participating in a reasonable discussion? I'm just using common sense in assuming that T-Rex and his buds weren't running around with chainsaws hacking down primary rainforest.

Quote:

Now if you're concerned about deforestation, I suggest that you make an effort to stop funding the World bank and various foreign 'development' schemes which underwrite this activity.


Your suggestion makes perfect sense. I'm trying to do my part by investing in socially responsible funds. May I suggest you and other shroomers try to do your part to control your household CO2 emissions by looking at the link I provided in my previous post.


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There are roughly nine galaxies for every person alive on the planet today. Each of these galaxies has a billion suns, give or take the odd hundred million


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InvisibleXlea321
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Posts: 9,134
Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: jimsuzo]
    #1518962 - 05/04/03 06:54 AM (18 years, 10 days ago)

Do you know what a Milankovitch cycle is, how frequently they occurred during the Pleistocene, and what their impact on global climatic change is? What about axial precession?

He doesn't yet, but after a 2 minute google search he soon will!!

And then he'll start "debating" you... :smile:


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Don't worry, B. Caapi


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OfflineJameZTheNewbie
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: GazzBut]
    #1519011 - 05/04/03 08:19 AM (18 years, 10 days ago)

the outer atmosphere is being bombarded with "good"radiation fromt he sun in the past few years acording to the history channel...meaning the atmosphere is fixing the holes on its own


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Mice have feelings


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InvisibleEvolving
Resident Cynic

Registered: 10/01/02
Posts: 5,385
Loc: Apt #6, The Village
Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: jimsuzo]
    #1519108 - 05/04/03 11:04 AM (18 years, 10 days ago)

Quote:

Do you know what a Milankovitch cycle is, how frequently they occurred during the Pleistocene, and what their impact on global climatic change is? What about axial precession?



I know of these things, which makes the discussion of the unproven theory of human CO2 production as the cause of global warming a debatable topic. I am not a champion of creating great economic disruption, loss of jobs and extreme hardship for millions of humans by instituting public policies based on questionable science.

Quote:

Quote:


Are you really that arrogant to think that you have an accurate picture of the entire history of the earth?



no. Why are you putting words into my mouth and why are you assuming I'm being arrogant by participating in a reasonable discussion? I'm just using common sense in assuming that T-Rex and his buds weren't running around with chainsaws hacking down primary rainforest.



I was responding to this statement which conveys a belief that you know the history of the earth without a doubt, "NEVER, EVER in the last 4.6 billion years (the age of the Earth) has there been vast deforestation superimposed on top of one of these climatic events." Your confidence in the knowledge of the unknown is amazing, I apologize for the use of the word arrogant, perhaps presumptuous would be a better term but I am at a loss to find a word which may not offend. Couldn't meteors or comets crashing into the earth cause vast deforestation? Couldn't massive volcanic activity wipe out forests? Couldn't one of these climatic events result in deforestation? Couldn't some other biological agent (non-human) have wiped out forests in the past? The records are far from clear and our knowledge is far from complete.


--------------------
To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.'  Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence.  Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains.  Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.


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Offlinejimsuzo
I am the Eggman

Registered: 08/14/02
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: Evolving]
    #1519956 - 05/04/03 07:23 PM (18 years, 10 days ago)

Quote:

Couldn't meteors or comets crashing into the earth cause vast deforestation? Couldn't massive volcanic activity wipe out forests? Couldn't one of these climatic events result in deforestation?




Yes. I should have said vast and incessant deforestation in which case your natural events do not qualify as potential causes. The events you mention event are indeed possible cause of deforestation, but our understanding of geological history is that they are relatively infrequent occurrences after which nature has had an opportunity to rebuild itself. The theorized comet/meteor impact responsible for wiping out the dinosaurs that occurred at the close of the Cretaceous roughly 60 million years ago is typical. There is no question many trees were wiped out, but eventually nature recovered. Likewise, while CO2 emission due to volcanic outgassing shot sky-high during the Cretaceous, it eventually subsided and things returned to normal. Unfortunately, man's presence on earth won't allow the forests to recover and current US policy isn't helping the situation sufficiently with respect to CO2 emission. Not to worry too much tho, I figure the human species doesn't have much longer to screw things up here. We'll either annihilate ourselves, smother ourselves in our own waste, or consume all of the natural resources required for our survival. After that - hey, nature can take over and the planet will recover. The world will truly be a better place once our consumption and war-loving species is history.


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There are roughly nine galaxies for every person alive on the planet today. Each of these galaxies has a billion suns, give or take the odd hundred million


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Global Warming, Facts Challenge Hysteria [Re: jimsuzo]
    #1520329 - 05/04/03 10:07 PM (18 years, 10 days ago)

Quote:

The world will truly be a better place once our consumption and war-loving species is history.



So we should trash it as quickly as possible so it can start recovering sooner.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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