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Offlinedummy
I am you and what I see is me


Registered: 09/29/08
Posts: 3,973
Last seen: 1 year, 9 months
Interesting research designed to predict divorce
    #14330607 - 04/21/11 11:04 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

the abstract just about sums it up (lol). check out the pp slides as they contain the bulk of the data. i thought this was incredibly insightful.

Quote:



Abstract:

The rise in divorce rates in developed countries, including the US, is a widespread, important and poorly understood phenomenon. The benefits of happy marriages are clear. Laboratory methods have been developed to observe interactions of couples to identify patterns that are predictive of divorce or whether the couple will be unhappily married.

Mathematician James Murray and psychologist John Gottman have developed a marital interaction theory based on key empirical findings from a large number of couples who have been tracked for the past 12 years. The mathematical model, of similar genre to those widely applied in the biomedical sciences, characterizes differences between different types of stable couples whose marriages are likely to last from two types of unstable couples. Changes over time in the parameters of the model can account for deterioration in a couple's relationship, and how their relationship could cross a threshold after which recovery becomes difficult. They have been able to predict the longitudinal course of marital relationships using this modeling, with an accuracy of 94%. With a couple's data they can simulate how this couple may interact under conditions different from those in which they were first observed. The modeling thus leads to "what if" thought experiments which can be used to help design new scientifically-based intervention strategies for troubled marriages.




edit;

hehe how absentminded of me. link;

http://www.ima.umn.edu/public-lecture/2004-05/murray/


http://www.ima.umn.edu/public-lecture/2004-05/murray/murray.pdf

Edited by dummy (04/21/11 11:28 PM)

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Invisibleatayia
nom nom
Female


Registered: 02/24/08
Posts: 1,319
Loc: Canada Flag
Re: Interesting research designed to predict divorce [Re: dummy]
    #14330769 - 04/21/11 11:26 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

You could have at least linked them, lol


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Offlinedummy
I am you and what I see is me


Registered: 09/29/08
Posts: 3,973
Last seen: 1 year, 9 months
Re: Interesting research designed to predict divorce [Re: atayia]
    #14330779 - 04/21/11 11:28 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

silly me


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People never seem to know what they least suspect is coming next.

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Invisibleatayia
nom nom
Female


Registered: 02/24/08
Posts: 1,319
Loc: Canada Flag
Re: Interesting research designed to predict divorce [Re: dummy]
    #14330814 - 04/21/11 11:33 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

haha thanks, i put my nose to google but am still reading through what i found on the subject - wasn't sure if it was the stuff you had/were talking about.


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Invisiblekoraks
Registered: 06/02/03
Posts: 26,691
Re: Interesting research designed to predict divorce [Re: atayia]
    #14331542 - 04/22/11 02:27 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Reminds me of that paper proposing a mathematical model for the disappearance of organized religion. It's one of those "if we can't exactly understand it, then let's just model it and be done with it" things I guess.

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Offlinedummy
I am you and what I see is me


Registered: 09/29/08
Posts: 3,973
Last seen: 1 year, 9 months
Re: Interesting research designed to predict divorce [Re: koraks]
    #14332998 - 04/22/11 11:53 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

the way i see it, statistically derived models are like a cheat code in life, or something like this. we gain insight into an incredibly abstract part of our nature.


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