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Icelander
The Minstrel in the Gallery



Registered: 03/15/05
Posts: 95,368
Loc: underbelly
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: ScavengerType]
#14082241 - 03/07/11 04:42 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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It's a quote from Ice. It can't be wrong.
-------------------- "Don't believe everything you think". -Anom. " All that lives was born to die"-Anom. With much wisdom comes much sorrow, The more knowledge, the more grief. Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC
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AlphaFalfa
imagine


Registered: 06/16/08
Posts: 3,857
Loc: 3 Seconds Ago.
Last seen: 10 years, 2 months
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: Icelander]
#14082277 - 03/07/11 04:49 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Icelander said: You can learn a lot from history but you haven't.
"Most humans don't learn from history and believe it began and will end with their lifetime." - Icelander
This is only a special time in history because it's the time you are personally aware and concerned about it. That doesn't mean similar things haven't happened before and we survived them just fine.
Only a person who hasn't studied environmental studies and economics would say such nonsense.
We are in a completely different time in which the past cannot be applied strongly to as a way to indicate what the outcomes of present events will be.
For example, in the past countries could generally provide basic nessecities to themselves indipendent of other nations.
Now this is the opposite. Without the stability of other nations, namely oil rich nations and ones with a high productive capacity(such as USA/Europe/China) we wouldn't.
Name one time in history where this occured.
Sure there was trade; but trade wasn't what countries relied on for basic nessecity.
-------------------- if you ever feel lost, just remember, life is not a journey, it is entertainment, all 4 fun...
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AlphaFalfa
imagine


Registered: 06/16/08
Posts: 3,857
Loc: 3 Seconds Ago.
Last seen: 10 years, 2 months
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: AlphaFalfa]
#14082293 - 03/07/11 04:52 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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By past i mean priro to the 1960's. Before the green revolution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution
-------------------- if you ever feel lost, just remember, life is not a journey, it is entertainment, all 4 fun...
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Le_Canard
The Duk Abides


Registered: 05/16/03
Posts: 94,392
Loc: Earthfarm 1
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: AlphaFalfa]
#14082329 - 03/07/11 05:00 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
AlphaFalfa said: What are your predictions on the distress and protests?
How long are they going to last and what are the reprucussions for people of the west?
Could be rough going for a while. But it could bring a few good things, like the US and Canada could develop the resources we have right here on the continent, like the coal reserves of the US and Canada's vast tar sands, hopefully weaning them off foreign oil.
And maybe the people of the middle east would actually form a democracy in those countries, but given their track record, they'll probably wind up with another lunatic in charge.
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AlphaFalfa
imagine


Registered: 06/16/08
Posts: 3,857
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: Le_Canard]
#14082453 - 03/07/11 05:24 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
ToiletDuk said:
Quote:
AlphaFalfa said: What are your predictions on the distress and protests?
How long are they going to last and what are the reprucussions for people of the west?
Could be rough going for a while. But it could bring a few good things, like the US and Canada could develop the resources we have right here on the continent, like the coal reserves of the US and Canada's vast tar sands, hopefully weaning them off foreign oil.
And maybe the people of the middle east would actually form a democracy in those countries, but given their track record, they'll probably wind up with another lunatic in charge.
Yeah I doubt it will come to the point of recession/depression.
We will probably develope green energy moresoe as well.
I also agree with that sentiment. The middle east seems to be as you say it is.
I wouldn't mind a one world government with control of oil resources to be honest.
But that may be to hasty.
-------------------- if you ever feel lost, just remember, life is not a journey, it is entertainment, all 4 fun...
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Icelander
The Minstrel in the Gallery



Registered: 03/15/05
Posts: 95,368
Loc: underbelly
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: AlphaFalfa]
#14082464 - 03/07/11 05:29 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
AlphaFalfa said:
Quote:
Icelander said: You can learn a lot from history but you haven't.
"Most humans don't learn from history and believe it began and will end with their lifetime." - Icelander
This is only a special time in history because it's the time you are personally aware and concerned about it. That doesn't mean similar things haven't happened before and we survived them just fine.
Only a person who hasn't studied environmental studies and economics would say such nonsense.
We are in a completely different time in which the past cannot be applied strongly to as a way to indicate what the outcomes of present events will be.
For example, in the past countries could generally provide basic nessecities to themselves indipendent of other nations.
Now this is the opposite. Without the stability of other nations, namely oil rich nations and ones with a high productive capacity(such as USA/Europe/China) we wouldn't.
Name one time in history where this occured.
Sure there was trade; but trade wasn't what countries relied on for basic nessecity.
You must think I'm ancient. I'm talking about my working lifetime. We've relied on from 35 to 60% on overseas oil. I remember huge scares with long lines at the pumps and they limited how much gas you could buy. It was a fucking joke same as when people were afraid the world would run out of toilet paper. Some people bought up years worth of the stuff. 
And if we somehow cannot be a global economy anymore then we'll do what the Cubans did and all start growing food at home and make a change in lifestyle. But life will still go on.
Edited by Icelander (03/07/11 05:49 PM)
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AlphaFalfa
imagine


Registered: 06/16/08
Posts: 3,857
Loc: 3 Seconds Ago.
Last seen: 10 years, 2 months
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: Icelander]
#14082893 - 03/07/11 06:37 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Icelander said:
Quote:
AlphaFalfa said:
Quote:
Icelander said: You can learn a lot from history but you haven't.
"Most humans don't learn from history and believe it began and will end with their lifetime." - Icelander
This is only a special time in history because it's the time you are personally aware and concerned about it. That doesn't mean similar things haven't happened before and we survived them just fine.
Only a person who hasn't studied environmental studies and economics would say such nonsense.
We are in a completely different time in which the past cannot be applied strongly to as a way to indicate what the outcomes of present events will be.
For example, in the past countries could generally provide basic nessecities to themselves indipendent of other nations.
Now this is the opposite. Without the stability of other nations, namely oil rich nations and ones with a high productive capacity(such as USA/Europe/China) we wouldn't.
Name one time in history where this occured.
Sure there was trade; but trade wasn't what countries relied on for basic nessecity.
You must think I'm ancient. I'm talking about my working lifetime. We've relied on from 35 to 60% on overseas oil. I remember huge scares with long lines at the pumps and they limited how much gas you could buy. It was a fucking joke same as when people were afraid the world would run out of toilet paper. Some people bought up years worth of the stuff. 
And if we somehow cannot be a global economy anymore then we'll do what the Cubans did and all start growing food at home and make a change in lifestyle. But life will still go on.
Oh joy.
Here we go over-simplifying things again.
Man, if you really have no clue what the hell you are even talking about do you?
Yeah, good luck growing food on baren lands and in the harsh climates that we grow food in!
Dude, you really oughta read up on the food system.
To understand this mess properly.
-------------------- if you ever feel lost, just remember, life is not a journey, it is entertainment, all 4 fun...
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Icelander
The Minstrel in the Gallery



Registered: 03/15/05
Posts: 95,368
Loc: underbelly
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: AlphaFalfa]
#14083053 - 03/07/11 07:02 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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You're not worried about me an I'm not worried about you remember. I'm not worried if someone can't grow food as long as I can. The world may have to face this sometime anyway. I don't really expect us to be able to keep this up forever.
I'm well aware that we are facing a mess and famine may be something even first world countries will have to deal with. I just don't think we're quite there yet. In fact not in your lifetime most likely.
This isn't the first time I've had this conversation. It was going on big time in the 70s when I was in school. I even got scared but all the predictions just like the 2012 one came and went. I don't freak out any more.
-------------------- "Don't believe everything you think". -Anom. " All that lives was born to die"-Anom. With much wisdom comes much sorrow, The more knowledge, the more grief. Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC
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ScavengerType


Registered: 01/24/08
Posts: 5,784
Loc: The North
Last seen: 10 years, 6 months
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: Icelander]
#14084658 - 03/08/11 12:57 AM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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I think that one of you is over exaggerating the situation and another is under exaggerating it.
Frankly, the shock will come and markets will be devastated but I doubt the most severe shortages will last more than a year, after which Saudi oil supply will either go back to normal levels or increase but not to previous levels. In other words once the crunch hits it will be too late to begin any programs that would seriously impact oil usage on the farm at the problem's initial peek. On the other hand if sustainable agriculturalists and those who want to put sustainable agriculture into the forefront of their national agricultural policy were to take advantage of the shock it is likely they could create a serious policy shift in a relatively quick period of time.
IMO though the biggest threat of democratization is to the US arms industry, not to industry in your area.
-------------------- "Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?" "The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything." - Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now. Conquer's Club
Edited by ScavengerType (03/08/11 01:08 AM)
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Baby_Hitler
Errorist




Registered: 03/06/02
Posts: 27,660
Loc: To the limit!
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: ScavengerType]
#14085007 - 03/08/11 03:00 AM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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This is why we need to make sure that the new regime has to buy all new stuff.
-------------------- This space for rent
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Icelander
The Minstrel in the Gallery



Registered: 03/15/05
Posts: 95,368
Loc: underbelly
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: ScavengerType]
#14085338 - 03/08/11 06:14 AM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
ScavengerType said: I think that one of you is over exaggerating the situation and another is under exaggerating it.
Frankly, the shock will come and markets will be devastated but I doubt the most severe shortages will last more than a year, after which Saudi oil supply will either go back to normal levels or increase but not to previous levels. In other words once the crunch hits it will be too late to begin any programs that would seriously impact oil usage on the farm at the problem's initial peek. On the other hand if sustainable agriculturalists and those who want to put sustainable agriculture into the forefront of their national agricultural policy were to take advantage of the shock it is likely they could create a serious policy shift in a relatively quick period of time.
IMO though the biggest threat of democratization is to the US arms industry, not to industry in your area.
Nothing you project wouldn't fit in with my expectations.
-------------------- "Don't believe everything you think". -Anom. " All that lives was born to die"-Anom. With much wisdom comes much sorrow, The more knowledge, the more grief. Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC
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AlphaFalfa
imagine


Registered: 06/16/08
Posts: 3,857
Loc: 3 Seconds Ago.
Last seen: 10 years, 2 months
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Re: Oil is going up in a few days. Saudi Protest. [Re: ScavengerType]
#14086496 - 03/08/11 12:47 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
ScavengerType said: I think that one of you is over exaggerating the situation and another is under exaggerating it.
Frankly, the shock will come and markets will be devastated but I doubt the most severe shortages will last more than a year, after which Saudi oil supply will either go back to normal levels or increase but not to previous levels. In other words once the crunch hits it will be too late to begin any programs that would seriously impact oil usage on the farm at the problem's initial peek. On the other hand if sustainable agriculturalists and those who want to put sustainable agriculture into the forefront of their national agricultural policy were to take advantage of the shock it is likely they could create a serious policy shift in a relatively quick period of time.
IMO though the biggest threat of democratization is to the US arms industry, not to industry in your area.

And the oversimplification begins!
I never said that we are going to see a fuel shortage!
I said that our economy being as weak as it is MIGHT double-dip or enter another recession.
Also, one thing you may not know is that EVEN when oil prices stabalize, a global economy in a recession does not come out of it, once oil prices stabalize. Rather it comes out of it when consumer/investor confidence is back and people stat spending to create jobs.
All I was saying with this post is that there exists the potential for our economy to double dip, which would bring us to a new low and a bigger hole to dig ourselves out of.
Finally, sustainable agriculturalists won't get shit from this. Sustainable agriculture cannot feed a society that depends largely on grains for feed to eat its main staple; beef, pork, chicken.
You can't sustainably farm grains, its an absurd concept. Sure you can have a plot of sustainably farmed grain here and there, but you won't even touch 1% of the total demand.
Also, this crisis won't affect food. It will affect food prices/jobs. Thats about it.
Food will still be available, but people will have to spend a larger percentage of their income for it.
-------------------- if you ever feel lost, just remember, life is not a journey, it is entertainment, all 4 fun...
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