Home | Community | Message Board


This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: Original Sensible Seeds Bulk Cannabis Seeds   PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   North Spore North Spore Mushroom Grow Kits & Cultivation Supplies   Kraken Kratom Kratom Capsules for Sale

Jump to first unread post Pages: < Back | 1 | 2  [ show all ]
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: Yrat]
    #13979570 - 02/17/11 03:55 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Yrat said:
the collapse has already happened. 



Ooooooooh.  We must all just be missing it because we have our sunglasses on.  Silly us.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,312
Last seen: 2 years, 10 months
Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: Yrat]
    #13979631 - 02/17/11 04:02 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

meams said:
How about you address my OP instead of picking at a technicality?





here are my questions to you

Quote:

Yrat said:

do you actually expect markets to drop in the presence of POMO?

if the economy is so sound, why the continued QE?  why are interest rates still pegged at (essentially) zero?  these questions alone destroy your entire premise.

what is it now, like 50 million on food stamps?





and rising*


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


Edited by Yrat (02/17/11 04:44 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisiblecoAsTal
Friend
 User Gallery

Registered: 04/04/06
Posts: 2,970
Loc: 8a
Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13982753 - 02/18/11 01:19 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

meams said:
Quote:

coAsTal said:
Some of the predictions are early. So what?
Because its unfair to say "America will collapse... eventually.  And then expect any of us to think thats some grand prediction.  Of course it'll collapse, nations always fall from power, but their statements were based on a relatively short term, given the context of our conversations, so THATS what i was asking about.




Hehe, unfair? Really? How is that?

You say nations always fall from power, and I'm giving you a few examples of the conditions that are driving that fall.
I stand by the fact that your imaginary deadline is a non sequitur.

Quote:

  Right now theres tons of liquidity sitting on banks balance sheets.  Since its not being lent & circulated, it is NONINFLATIONARY.  You're saying someday all that money is going to be dumped on the economy.  I assume you think it'll all levae the banks at once, because tahts the only way "inflation will explode"

Well, guess what:  banks simply can not, and will not, lend that huge sum of money at once.  WHy not?  Because banks only lend to projects they deem will be able to pay them back. There simply aren't that many loans being demanded out there that look like a viable investment FOR THE BANK. 




Yes, you are correct that they are not likely to lend it out all at once-- in fact, the whole point of the first $1.5 trillion on QE was to subsidize the banks catastrophic MBS- which are now "owned" by taxpayers. Everything about the gov/fed's strategy is to delay, protract, and kick-the-can.

Specifically, rather than making loans to businesses or households that might help to grow the economy, the banks left one trillion dollars on deposit at the Fed earning .25% interest. The rest of the new funds, about $400 billion, were invested in government debt in the form of Treasuries.

Indirectly, therefore, the QE1 program was a bailout of the federal government in that it helped absorb the soaring deficit spending.

Now, with Quantitative Fleecing II, the Fed is creating/spending about $100 Billion per month to buy longer-term Treasuries. That's through June. You better expect them to carry on the practice after June rolls by.
QEII will probably expand to all of 2011, which I suspect was the plan all along- calling it "only" 600 billion was a propaganda ploy to make it seem smaller in the news cycle-- which was better than calling it another trillion right on the heels of the 1.5T they just created in 2010.
It gets worse.
The Fed didn’t explicitly mention during QEII that their other balance sheet components were in decline. For instance, the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and agency debt held by the Fed declines as the mortgages are paid off and debt matures. They are declining by about $35 billion a month, which means the Fed’s actual purchases of Treasuries have to be that much higher to fill the gap – adding another $400 billion for the year. 2011 will print a trillion new dollars before it's said and done.

But your mistake is in thinking that these massive amounts of money have no impact in the global economic planning just because they aren't being 'openly' disbursed yet. The fact is, no matter how it's stored, the result is the creation of a demand deposit out of thin air that the federal government is spending on its deficit. All economists combine demand deposit accounts and paper dollar bills into M1. The money counts.
You ought to know that the financial architecture world-wide watches the reserve currency like a damned hawk. They see this huge influx of dollars.
They see that we are printing money to pay our own internal debts.

They also see Hillary Clinton and The Bernank tell them that they should continue to conduct business as usual, and to act as though there is nothing amiss. Oh, and they can't do anything with their currency that we fear might topple our rickety apple cart.
But read the line you wrote yourself that I bolded above.
Quote:

meams said:Because banks only lend to projects they deem will be able to pay them back.




We are not a safe credit risk right now.
We're overdrawn. We are paying todays bills with our salary from three years out---or three hundred-- it doesn't matter, because before every technical/causal argument about it you have to frame it within the boundaries of reality: YOU CAN'T SPEND MORE THAN YOU MAKE INDEFINITELY. Interest on your debt will ALWAYS grow out of mathematical control at a definable rate. It's not even an argument- it's a math statement of fact.

Why would anyone trust their money to anyone that was paying all their bills with xeroxed money they printed an hour before they mailed it.

The Chinese KNOW there are trillions of dollars being added to total supply. It's a technicality that it's been routed through the Treasury market to earn the parasitic banks and government free money while they frantically try to put a speeding train back on its rails.
This money is depreciating the long-term value of ALL dollars on the planet. It is the inevitable result of its creation. How can you seriously think that is not the case? If you think it is, then you alone can ignore an 800lb. gorilla in the room.
I would not expect foreign governments to be so kind in their economic calculation.



YES, they've tucked it away behind the lines of active market action, but it is a FACT that fiat currency exists ONLY insofar as those using it BELIEVE in the intrinsic value of it. All that fiat currencies actually have "intrinsically" is the trust and financial reputation of the issuer.
Otherwise, to quote a recently-retired warmonger, "it's just a god-damned piece of paper".

Every dollar we print to cover debt is a dollar that reduces the value of the monstrous amounts of debt in treasuries China and everyone else dutifully holds.
Do you really think they won't eventually sell off/back off that toxic currency and switch it for something else? That's already happening. Every dollar of debt they don't buy from us is getting printed by the Fed and called QE. It's going to get worse as out printing press gets hotter.


Quote:

Aside from that, even if banks WERE going to start lending money out much more quickly than our economy was expanding (thereby more money for the same # of goods), we would start to get inflation.  If inflation was climbing too quickly, guess what the fed would do?  Raise raites!  And if that didnt get inflation under control, they can do any number of things to have the same  effect - like raise the reserve requirement for banks.




Raising rates?! Are you paying attention to the gargantuan debt-load the United States Government has? It's printing dollars by the trillion just to keep up with current debt at low rates and it's still falling behind.
The Bernank has created a monster. Instead of households borrowing from banks, it is now the government borrowing from the Fed.
It can’t stop its monetisation without leaving the government high and dry, triggering rising rates it can’t afford to pay the interest on.

IF there were a genuine civilian recovery, as you posit, then again, interest rates would rise on demand of consumer credit. This leads right back to the fact that we are already underwater with our deficit spending--so much that we must print to pay for it. Every basis point that rates go up is a tick past redline for the printing press that is already being used to keep up.

The Bernank can't raise rates. The public can't raise rates. Either course results in massive new printing of currency to pay for the interest. Either course results in debasement of the currency.

Quote:

meams said:
Quote:

coAsTal said:
Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Japan-- all countries in this global world are falling apart at the seams, right along with (and mostly because of) the United States. Think of them as the canarys in the coal mine- but they're just a taste of the global default to come.

I hope you have your oxygen mask and a lot of gold.





Clearly you don't know much about the structure of those troubled European countries, and what caused their issues.  Mainly, its a welfare government that completely lacks revenues.  In greece, tiny percentages of people pay income taxes.  In spain, they have tons of social programs and an economy that was horribly horribly dependent on their housing boom & construction.

Read.  Please.





I'm astonished that you are considering the above a rebuke to my analysis.
You are the one that doesn't "get it".
What is the difference between Greece's "welfare government" that "completely lacks revenue" and the US government that lacks enough revenue that it requires a printing press to pay it's internal bills?
Answer: The US has a printing press, and up until recently, everybody used our money without question.

Wanna talk about a tiny percentage of people paying taxes?

In the U.S.:
Quote:

During 2008, the bottom 95 percent (AGI under $159,619) paid 41.3 percent of the total collected, a larger share than the 38.0 percent paid by the top 1 percent (AGI over $380,354).

The top-earning 5 percent of taxpayers (AGI over $159,619), however, still paid far more than the bottom 95 percent.  [citation]





And you want to talk about "tons of social programs"?!
Remember that 50 TRILLION DOLLARS IN UNFUNDED LIABILITIES I wrote about in bold that you never mentioned? We owe more, per person, than any other country on the planet when you view us in terms of bills that we're writing to others vs. what we earn. 
The sheer cost of our existing crappy medical subsidy infrastructure is going to go stratospheric when the baby boomers leave us by the millions, ramping up expenses like never before known in history.
We've got our "tons of social programs". They eclipse economic piss-ant countries like Greece by orders of magnitude.

No matter. It is okay if you and others believe that all of these things that I call intractable and inevitable don't exist, or that they are going to be manageable after all.

Believe what you will-- but know that there are people out there that are investing their futures around these things for a reason. You will either survive with greater wealth, or you will not.


I might suggest though, to all my friends here, that it is you that should continue reading.

Please.

:peace:


--------------------
I am certain of nothing but the holiness of the Heart's affections and the truth of Imagination--  John Keats

Spore Trading List


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: coAsTal] * 1
    #13983339 - 02/18/11 07:47 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

coAsTal said:
Remember that 50 TRILLION DOLLARS IN UNFUNDED LIABILITIES



Wow, $50T, that's like, 4 years GDP?  Have you ever bought a house?  Was your mortgage more than 4x the amount you make in a year?  it happens a lot.  I said in my original post that if things keep going the way they are, that we'll have a bond crisis.  You're just speaking to that point.

Quote:

coAsTal said:
Hehe, unfair? Really? How is that?




How about this prediction:  The sun will run out of energy.  BOOM!  Take that, suckaaaaa.


Quote:

coAsTal said:
What is the difference between Greece's "welfare government" that "completely lacks revenue" and the US government




Athens, Greece (CNN) -- More than 5 million Greeks did not pay income taxes for 2008, according to public documents released by the struggling nation's finance ministry.

Thats 5,000,000 out of 11,2xx,000.

In America,thatnumber is 47%.  The difference?  In America, we have relatively low personal tax, but a much higher corporate tax --- which is good since we hold a lot of the worlds most profitable corporations (especially this year, after the cost-cutting).  They, on the other hand, have the same 10% disparity in their personal/corporate rate --- except the higher rate is the one being avoided by most individuals.

Look.  Bottom line is: i'm not saying America is in great fiscal shape.  We're not, and nobdy is dumb enough to say otherwise.  My thread was made to point out that America has not collapsed in teh rapid fasion that everyone on here said it would.  Not in any way, shape, or form.  You can say it sbecause the fed is gluing together a house of cards, or blame it on any other back-room theories, but the fact of the matter is ---- we're still here and growing.  :shrug:




Quote:

Yrat Said:
do you actually expect markets to drop in the presence of POMO?

if the economy is so sound, why the continued QE?  why are interest rates still pegged at (essentially) zero?  these questions alone destroy your entire premise.

what is it now, like 50 million on food stamps?




This'll make me look dumb, but i have no idea what POMO is, and neither does the first page of a Bing search.  Unless you're talking about postmodernism, orPomo indian tribe.

Why teh continued QE?  because we're not back to running on full steam yet.  We're not fully recovered, anyone could tell you that.  THis thread was to ask WHY HAVENT WE IMPLODED like everyone said we would.  Not "look, we're back to tip-top-perfect shape!"

Blah blah, blah.

Regarding food stamps:  I live in the city, i shop at the ghetto grocery, and I see who spends food stamps and what they spend them on.  Cash back on their welfare cards, hoards of the most unhealthy food you can think of.

If they're not making effort to maintain good health, i find it hard to believe they're making the effort to get off the teet of the system.  It is no secret that a "requirement" for welfare payments incentivizes those directly above it to work less (in order to qualify) and those directly below it to maintain their low incomes (to continue qualification).

This recession has brought the number of individuals just "above" that line to a higher level than before - becuase we're progressively broke now.  Why would a guy who used to make $50,000 a year get a job making $14,000/yr when he can not work AT ALL and get federal support?

Why earn $7/hr when you can get paid $6/hr to 'look for jobs' from the government? 



I'm not sa ying everyone on the system is a moocher.  I'm just saying its rampant, and worsening, especially welfare payments continue being lengthened.


----------------------------------------------

Now that this thread has turned from:  Why hasn't America blown up in the short term like you said

to

Why are there still fundamental problems with America, meams?


You will find my participation rate declining, much like our current labor force (ooooooh).


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleLana
Head Banana
Female

Registered: 10/27/99
Posts: 3,109
Loc: www.MycoSupply.com
Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13983358 - 02/18/11 07:57 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

"How about this prediction:  The sun will run out of energy.  BOOM!  Take that, suckaaaaa."

Now that put a smile on my face :smile:

Lana


--------------------
Myco Supply - Distributors of Mycological Products
http://www.MycoSupply.com

The Premiere Source for Mushroom Growing Supplies.
Visit us online or call us toll free


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: Lana]
    #13983406 - 02/18/11 08:17 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

I find it to be a perfect metaphore to reprsent America.  America is emitting more money than its taking in.  The sun is emitting more energy than its creating.

Therefore, collapse.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13983415 - 02/18/11 08:19 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Right, clearly life is unsustainable, since it relies on the finite resource of the sun.  Collapse is inevitable, we might as well abandon life right now.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: DieCommie]
    #13983437 - 02/18/11 08:26 AM (12 years, 11 months ago)

And I think i'll leave it at that.



Its been fun,money matters!  I'll see you in 2years when we still haven't collapsed.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: < Back | 1 | 2  [ show all ]

Shop: Original Sensible Seeds Bulk Cannabis Seeds   PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   North Spore North Spore Mushroom Grow Kits & Cultivation Supplies   Kraken Kratom Kratom Capsules for Sale


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Palin & Shroomerites: One in the Same
( 1 2 3 4 5 all )
memes 3,635 92 11/14/10 11:09 AM
by Mr.Al
* Islamic banking - Interest free
( 1 2 3 all )
Shins 5,777 52 01/13/11 09:40 AM
by zappaisgod
* Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects
( 1 2 3 4 ... 500 501 )
geokillsA 250,368 10,004 01/29/24 10:44 PM
by ManianFH

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: geokills, automan
3,609 topic views. 0 members, 3 guests and 1 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.024 seconds spending 0.008 seconds on 14 queries.