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Invisiblememes
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What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. * 2
    #13973500 - 02/16/11 12:23 PM (13 years, 17 days ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
I don;t have a crystal ball, but I can easily picture the DOW at 5000 in the next 2 years.

5000 before christmas 2010 and I hope it won't go any lower.



http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/9942214#9942214

Quote:

Shins said:
theres basically 2 options here, hyper deflation, or hyper inflation. one means a depression/recession, the later will just bump back a recession a few months.



http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/9141504#9141504

Now, obviously the DOW has doubled in the time since the first quote (two years).  Additionally, neither hyperinflation or hyperdeflation has come to be realized.

So wheres my global economic collapse?  Come on guys.  Whats going on here - i want to know why all your doomsday predictions fizzled out to moot.  I want to know why Gold didnt spike above $2,000 like the 67 economists Wiccan posted said it would.  I want to know why unemployment is still hovering around 10% instead of shooting up like we thought was imminent.

So wheres the bad?  This looks like a normal recovery to me - a bit protracted due to its roots in the financial sector (recessiosn originating there take longer to recover from), but all-in-all nothing cataclysmic like you all kept assuring me.


-------------------------

Now I'll give you this:

-------------------------


In the coming decade or two, there will be a point in time where the U.S. faces a panic much like the Euro has been dealing with for the past year.  Investors will finally realize we are fallible and that our system is unsustainable.  Bond prices will soar, the gov't will be unable to service its debt, and austerity measures (like those in europe now) will have to be put in place.  Shit, we might even get a Tea Partier in the white house if things get bad enough.

Now, before you tell me that THIS will cause the U.S. to collapse, I want to let you konw that the fact that we are ONE NATION as opposed to a loosely bound group of nations will make it much easier for us to institute the necessary measures to assure the  markets that we are safe to lend to.  The retirement age will be raised, medicare and medicaid payments will become a lesser portion of the budget, and (hopefully) our role as Team America World Police will be lessened (of course it wont be eliminated, especially w/ china's rise).

I Just wanted to get that out there before the bond crisis actually happens and you guys create a billion threads quoting 4-page articles from mises.org and other goldbug websites, claiming cataclysms that will likely fizzle out just like the claims that you've been making over the past 2+ years since Lehman collapsed in Fall '08.


:awebig:

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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13973506 - 02/16/11 12:25 PM (13 years, 17 days ago)

Oh, and before you say "inflation does exist! look at food and energy prices!" I want to counter that by saying that these are rising due to increased global demand, not any monetary loosening that has occured over the course of the past few years.

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InvisibleArmFromTheAbyss
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13974938 - 02/16/11 05:44 PM (13 years, 17 days ago)

Quote:

meams said:


In the coming decade or two, there will be a point in time where the U.S. faces a panic much like the Euro has been dealing with for the past year.  Investors will finally realize we are fallible and that our system is unsustainable.  Bond prices will soar,




Stop right there, are you sure about that last bit? You don't even know how the bond market works do you? If you can't figure out what's wrong with that statement you should seriously consider switching majors.


--------------------

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InvisiblecoAsTal
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: ArmFromTheAbyss]
    #13976981 - 02/17/11 12:02 AM (13 years, 16 days ago)

All of these doomsday predictions have not "fizzled out to moot".
That implies that they are somehow rendered irrelevant by the passage of some imaginary deadline. That implication is ridiculous.

Some of the predictions are early. So what?
I believe, as many watchers do, that there are many fundamentally correct observations about the collapse of the current fiat monetary systems and the derivative fabrications that only exist because of the artificial amplification of currency that they allow. Their default will play out in time. There are those that have been detailing economic fracture for decades. Specifically. Correctly.

Allow me to analogise. (typing straight econ can be boring)

Quantitative Fleecing has had the effect of refilling the air pressure, somewhat, in a moving tire with a growing hole that no tire patch can repair. Sure, you've made it slowly down another block. Is that really reason to brag?

The car can never again drive like it used to; it will get incrementally worse until the tire blows out completely, stranding you and everyone in the car with you. All the effort right now is to distract the passengers into thinking that it was just a speed bump safely behind us. Except that you're charging them for the "air". And everything else, for that matter.
It's self-deception to think you can fix the problem by pumping ever more air into your tire. The air pressure isn't the problem, the hole is.

The passengers paying for the gas and maintenance in that car (foreign debt holders) are there because you had the best ride around. At least you used to. It was worth being your passenger, even though you alone could drive and selected most destinations, because only you could take them places they couldn't get to on their own.

Times have changed, and they are thinking about how it might be to have their own car.
They are watching you--critically-- in stark daylight, and now see that you are in a broken vehicle. You seem to have no idea that the car is really broken. You charge them more and more for less and less mobility.
But they are not stupid. Do you think they will pay for your gas forever? Why would they? You can no longer take them anywhere they can't get to other ways. You can't even drive them to safety like you used to--at least not without heavily increasing the burden on them to do so.
Besides, the exhaust from your car chokes everyone in the neighborhood now and the engine is running out of oil, too.

They are already on their cellphones making arrangements for alternative transportation. It's no secret that your busted car is becoming an increasingly inefficient mode of travel for them. Once they get out of your car, they're not getting back in. This moment will arrive as soon as your car stops moving.
Your tank will run dry. Then you will be the one looking for a ride.
Air in your tire is the least of your concerns. What happens when those passengers bail out on you is the real moment of truth.

Bragging that the car is still moving right this instant serves only to show a misunderstanding about the nature of an irreparable hole in the tire.

/analogy


Every structural flaw in the foundation of world fiat commerce and economic calculation is still there. It has been exacerbated by using the Universal ATM that dumb americans only know as The Federal Reserve to print trillions of monopoly money (the irony of that term never ceases to amuse me). It will take an indeterminate amount of time for that colossal increase in monetary supply to destratify into the broader economy. But you know it can't stay in the hands of the megabanks forever, as it largely has so far--eventually it must be spent or lent. Then your inflation will explode.

But spending more than you earn will equal bankruptcy always and every time.
ALWAYS and EVERY TIME. It doesn't matter if it's your maxed out credit card or it's called a "budget".

It will happen, and it must happen.
The fact that these big governments are making fake money to delay making payments on their horrible debt-loads, in unison, creates the ugliest economic scenario in financial history-- a cannon with a steel plug blocking the barrel waiting to explode. How long is the fuse?

Who cares? It's lit, and that's all that matters.

What happens when interest rates rise as governments the world over dig deeper and deeper in debt, and must pay foreign and domestic debt-holders more and more money to make their investment "worth it".
WHERE will that money come from? We are already in the red for a generation of slavery- to pay it all off, every single American would have to pay a quarter million dollars. Men, women, and children. Unfunded liabilities in america alone that climb over $50 Trillion dollars. That's a number that up until a few years ago was used only in cosmology and astronomy.

Between inflation through bloated monetary supply and the increasing risk a debt-holder will incur by handing their money to governments that have been, and brazenly continue to be irresponsible, it's going to take free BJ's and bottles of wine to get serious investors to trust any government with their money in time-- plus Volker-like interest rate hikes that, as is already known, would render the huge debt load that exists even more impossible to ever repay...


There is no way to predict the moment when the critical mass of events will occur and the whole BS game falls apart. That in no way changes the reality of the decay present in the market, and the wreck that will happen as a result of it.

Politicians and banksters have signed, sealed, and delivered a calamity to the whole world. Your children, and their children will pay dearly for this. The standard of living in the "western" world is going to decline. People DO feel it now, and will continue to get less and less for each unit of currency at an accelerating pace as gov/bank accounting tricks and the broader confidence game fails with greater frequency and saturation.

Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Japan-- all countries in this global world are falling apart at the seams, right along with (and mostly because of) the United States. Think of them as the canarys in the coal mine- but they're just a taste of the global default to come.

I hope you have your oxygen mask and a lot of gold.

Edited by coAsTal (02/17/11 01:57 AM)

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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: ArmFromTheAbyss]
    #13977728 - 02/17/11 06:59 AM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Quote:

ArmFromTheAbyss said:
Quote:

meams said:
  Bond prices will soar,




Stop right there, are you sure about that last bit? You don't even know how the bond market works do you? If you can't figure out what's wrong with that statement you should seriously consider switching majors.



When international lenders don't have faith in the ability of a country to pay its debts (bonds), they charge a higher interest rate.

Looks like i misworded that.

WHoops.

Yeah, supposed to be interest rates.  Whateverz - huge difference.  I am shamefaced.

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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13977732 - 02/17/11 07:00 AM (13 years, 16 days ago)

I should have said "the price of borrowing will soar"

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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: coAsTal]
    #13977749 - 02/17/11 07:09 AM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Quote:

coAsTal said:
Some of the predictions are early. So what?




Because its unfair to say "America will collapse... eventually.  And then expect any of us to think thats some grand prediction.  Of course it'll collapse, nations always fall from power, but their statements were based on a relatively short term, given the context of our conversations, so THATS what i was asking about.

Quote:

coAsTal said:
It will take an indeterminate amount of time for that colossal increase in monetary supply to destratify into the broader economy. But you know it can't stay in the hands of the megabanks forever, as it largely has so far--eventually it must be spent or lent. Then your inflation will explode.




Well, lets see about that.  Right now theres tons of liquidity sitting on banks balance sheets.  Since its not being lent & circulated, it is NONINFLATIONARY.  You're saying someday all that money is going to be dumped on the economy.  I assume you think it'll all levae the banks at once, because tahts the only way "inflation will explode"

Well, guess what:  banks simply can not, and will not, lend that huge sum of money at once.  WHy not?  Because banks only lend to projects they deem will be able to pay them back. There simply aren't that many loans being demanded out there that look like a viable investment FOR THE BANK. 

Aside from that, even if banks WERE going to start lending money out much more quickly than our economy was expanding (thereby more money for the same # of goods), we would start to get inflation.  If inflation was climbing too quickly, guess what the fed would do?  Raise raites!  And if that didnt get inflation under control, they can do any number of things to have the same  effect - like raise the reserve requirement for banks.


Quote:

coAsTal said:
Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Japan-- all countries in this global world are falling apart at the seams, right along with (and mostly because of) the United States. Think of them as the canarys in the coal mine- but they're just a taste of the global default to come.

I hope you have your oxygen mask and a lot of gold.



Clearly you don't know much about the structure of those troubled European countries, and what caused their issues.  Mainly, its a welfare government that completely lacks revenues.  In greece, tiny percentages of people pay income taxes.  In spain, they have tons of social programs and an economy that was horribly horribly dependent on their housing boom & construction.

Read.  Please.

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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: ArmFromTheAbyss]
    #13977752 - 02/17/11 07:10 AM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Quote:

ArmFromTheAbyss said:
Stop right there



How about you address my OP instead of picking at a technicality?

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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13977811 - 02/17/11 07:37 AM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Ha, good thread but Im not sure what you expect them to say.  I doubt they will admit they were wrong, they will come up with some excuse and push off the date of armageddon for a few years, that is what those with precognition of end times always do.

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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: DieCommie]
    #13977846 - 02/17/11 07:51 AM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Quote:

DieCommie said:
Ha, good thread but Im not sure what you expect them to say.



I dont expect them to say anything.  Just come in and reinform me that the system is inherently broken and that the day will come!

:lollerskates:

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InvisibleAsante
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13978021 - 02/17/11 09:07 AM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
I don;t have a crystal ball, but I can easily picture the DOW at 5000 in the next 2 years.

5000 before christmas 2010 and I hope it won't go any lower.





Well, I was wrong, I didnt expect the Fed to pull a Deus Ex Machina like they did. And did. And did.


Quote:

In late November 2008, the Fed started buying $600 billion Mortgage-backed securities (MBS).[19] By March 2009, it held $1.75 trillion of bank debt, MBS, and Treasury notes, and reached a peak of $2.1 trillion in June 2010. Further purchases were halted since the economy had started to improve. Holdings started falling naturally as debt matured. In fact, holdings were projected to fall to $1.7 trillion by 2012. However, in August 2010 the Fed decided to renew quantitative easing because the economy wasn't growing robustly. Its goal was to keep holdings at the $2.054 trillion level. To maintain that level, the Fed bought $30 billion in 2-10 year Treasury notes a month. In November 2010, the Fed announced it would increase quantitative easing, buying $600 billion of Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011.




Quote:

I want to know why unemployment is still hovering around 10% instead of shooting up like we thought was imminent.




Can you break down that number and assure me that all people who are in fact unemployed are included in that?

Quote:

all-in-all nothing cataclysmic like you all kept assuring me.




"I assure you Sir, we did hit an iceberg."


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here

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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: Asante]
    #13978428 - 02/17/11 11:26 AM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
Can you break down that number and assure me that all people who are in fact unemployed are included in that?




Participation rates haven't dropped as much as you'd think, sir.  About 2% so far.





Again:  why not avoid picking at one detail of my post and instead address it as a whole.  You adn abyss seem to be having fun playign with nuances.  Even if every person who could be looking for work, was looking for work, it still wouldn't be the hugely inflated statistic you guys kept implying would happen - back in '08.  I kept hearing Depression-era unemployment (25%).  This is not that.  Even if the numbers were "true" as you all say.

Here's an article: http://www.economist.com/node/18114537?story_id=18114537

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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: Asante]
    #13978440 - 02/17/11 11:29 AM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
Well, I was wrong, I didnt expect the Fed to pull a Deus Ex Machina like they did. And did. And did.




You didnt expect The Fed, who was originally created with the mandate of being a Lender of Last Resort, to do what it could to stave off (yes, i said stave off) the collapse of an empire? (i'm using your terms now.  stave, empire).

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13978855 - 02/17/11 01:17 PM (13 years, 16 days ago)

I sincerely doubt that whatever Fed action he is referring to had a 7,000 point effect on the DJIA


--------------------

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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #13978952 - 02/17/11 01:40 PM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
I sincerely doubt that whatever Fed action he is referring to had a 7,000 point effect on the DJIA



Agreed.

But I do think the extent of hte Fed's actions had a substantial effect on consumer & investor confidence ---- which as we know, is a big part of how well our economy is doing.

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13979008 - 02/17/11 01:58 PM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Quote:

meams said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
I sincerely doubt that whatever Fed action he is referring to had a 7,000 point effect on the DJIA



Agreed.

But I do think the extent of hte Fed's actions had a substantial effect on consumer & investor confidence ---- which as we know, is a big part of how well our economy is doing.




Well let's not forget that the DJIA is NOT the economy, which remains well fucked.  But what else are people going to put their money into?  1% CDs?  2% bonds?
I'm assuming you consider the Fed's actions  to have had a positive effect on the Dow, as does W_S.  Of course that is largely offset by the Administration's ongoing policy of demonizing private profit and continuing massive debt accrual.  Companies are hoarding cash because they know damn well that the pitchforks are coming for them at least until we get rid of the socialist nitwit in the White House.  Sooner or later the assholes are going to make them fork it over.  If I was a businessman who could move my operations I'd be loading the fucking truck now.  I'd certainly be getting the fuck out of NY State.


--------------------

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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #13979103 - 02/17/11 02:24 PM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Yes yes, i know the DJIA is NOT the economy.  I should've said "The economy and markets".

Consumer confidence ---> better looking economy
Investor confidence ---> better looking market

:shrug:

There was a good economist article on the hoards of cash companies have racked up right now -- ill try and find it.




Edit: just looked around and couldnt find it - hrmmm

Edited by memes (02/17/11 02:28 PM)

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InvisibleArmFromTheAbyss
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13979258 - 02/17/11 02:58 PM (13 years, 16 days ago)

Quote:

meams said:
Quote:

ArmFromTheAbyss said:
Stop right there



How about you address my OP instead of picking at a technicality?




Okay I'm willing to put your arrogance aside.

Quote:

meams said:
So wheres the bad?  This looks like a normal recovery to me - a bit protracted due to its roots in the financial sector (recessiosn originating there take longer to recover from), but all-in-all nothing cataclysmic like you all kept assuring me.





Does this look normal to you:


Yeah "a bit protracted" is right.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: ArmFromTheAbyss]
    #13979415 - 02/17/11 03:32 PM (13 years, 16 days ago)

If that graph went back to the Great Depression, the relativity of this current spike wouldn't look so bad.  Again, that graph just shows length of time unemployed.  Statistics show individuals who have been out for longer are having a much more difficult time finding jobs.  If you got laid off recently, you've got better chances of securing work.

Additionally, with Congress continuing to lengthen jobless benefits, where's the incentives to go out and get work?  There are tons of low-wage low-skill jobs out there that people still feel  "above", because they haven't realized that America's natural unemployment level is shifting due to our structural inadequacies.

Manufacturing is uncompetitive, globally (except for a few sectors), construction is gasping for life (look around your town at the # of unfilled new minimalls), and a lot of administrative services are being exported overseas - in both medical and corporate sectors.

If it weren't for our booming number of old peopl getting sick and requiring more doctors adn nurses, we'd LOOK to be a lot worse off than we are.  And I say LOOK becuase in reality we ARE way worse off because of that -- who pays for all those bills?  Medicare & Medicaid.

Fuck.

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OfflineYrat
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Re: What happened to the death of America? Paulbots, Come in. [Re: memes]
    #13979547 - 02/17/11 03:51 PM (13 years, 16 days ago)

do you actually expect markets to drop in the presence of POMO?

if the economy is so sound, why the continued QE?  why are interest rates still pegged at (essentially) zero?  these questions alone destroys your entire premise.

what is it now, like 50 million on food stamps?

the collapse has already happened.  there is nothing left but the fed attempting to paper over the hemorrhaging debt ponzi with more paper promises. 

proceed with caution.


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root

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