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InvisibleGreen_T
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Registered: 10/02/08
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Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke?
    #13393814 - 10/27/10 03:31 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

The vote is 6 days away. Hoping for the best...

Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke?
October 21, 2010 - five-thirty-eight NYT blog

Proposition 19, a ballot initiative in California that would give local authorities the ability to legalize and tax marijuana for personal consumption, appears to have lost ground in the polls.

Calculating a trendline from all surveys on the initiative suggests that about 46 percent of Californians plan to vote in favor of Proposition 19 — a yes vote would legalize marijuana in the state — but 47 percent plan to vote no. This reflects a reversal from before, as the ballot measure had led in most surveys prior to this month.



The trend is fairly robust across different polling companies. Although SurveyUSA still has the yes vote favored, 48 to 44, their previous polls had shown the measure leading by a larger margin. The Public Policy Institute of California meanwhile, has the measure trailing by 5 points now after having led by 9 points before. And Ipsos, which had the “yes” side trailing by 2 points in its June survey, now has the initiative trailing by 10.

Proposition 19 may simply be getting swamped by the races for governor and Senate in California, both of which are quite competitive. Through Sept. 30, for instance, according to California’s campaign finance Web site, groups in favor of Proposition 19 had raised a total of about $860,000 in individual contributions, easily outdistancing the roughly $160,000 raised by groups opposed to it.

But these amounts are infinitesimal as compared with the tens of millions of dollars invested in the Senate and governor’s races, which is on the order of $200 million in the aggregate, much of it coming from the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Meg Whitman. Meanwhile, Ms. Whitman and the other three major-party candidates in California — Jerry Brown, Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina — are all opposed to Proposition 19. Interest in these races may be driving a traditional, medium-to-high midterm election turnout, which would tend to skew older. Since support for marijuana legalization is highly correlated with age, that could be harming the proposition.

Furthermore, there is a rule of thumb — although I haven’t seen much empirical study of it — that voters who tell pollsters they are undecided on a ballot initiative will tend to vote “no” on it on Election Day. This may because they are primarily interested in voting for other reasons — like the Senate and governor’s races — and will not have spent much time studying the measure, and therefore will default toward preserving the status quo.

Ballot measures, however, can be difficult to poll — particularly on culturally sensitive areas such as drug use. An analysis I conducted over the summer found some evidence that some polls could be underestimating the support that Latino and black voters are prepared to provide for the initiative, since marijuana usage can be especially stigmatized in their communities, and some of these votes could be reluctant to admit their support to pollsters.

It could also be the case that pollsters are under representing non-traditional voters, who may be inclined to vote solely because of Proposition 19. SurveyUSA, for instance, which is one of the few polls still to show Proposition 19 favored to pass, has found a group of “uniquely motivated” voters in California — people who might be weeded out (pardon the pun) by traditional likely voter screens, but who show a strong interest in this year’s elections. These voters favor Proposition 19 by a 7:4 ratio, according to SurveyUSA’s analysis, and could make the difference between its passage and its failure.

There are good reasons to think the polls could either be overestimating or underestimating Proposition 19’s support. In spite of the recent trends against Proposition 19, therefore, I would be inclined to take the recent polling at face value, which suggests that the measure has about even odds of passing.


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"I have sworn upon the altar of god eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man" - Thomas Jefferson

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OfflineAsAboveSoBelow
The matrix has you


Registered: 02/06/08
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: Green_T]
    #13393844 - 10/27/10 04:13 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

:blah: :blah: :blah:

propaganda. Nobody knows shit until election day


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You're gonna get hurt real bad :smile:

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Offlineauronlives69
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: Green_T]
    #13393985 - 10/27/10 06:46 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

man fuck these bullshit polls i bet prop 19 wins by a landslide


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The past is dead. It was all just a dream...

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InvisibleGreen_T
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: auronlives69]
    #13394016 - 10/27/10 07:00 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Read the comments on the source page. There are plenty of people, even cannabis users, who are against prop 19. They may have shallow reasons to vote no, but their vote counts nonetheless.

I have a feeling this will be close race.

Remember, a "yes" looks like a vote for prop 19. A "no" looks like a vote for prohibition.

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Offlineadamantasaurus
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: Green_T]
    #13394239 - 10/27/10 09:07 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

God I really hope this passes I would be so happy!!! I will throw a prop 19 party!!

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OfflineHappy2fly
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: Green_T]
    #13394352 - 10/27/10 09:36 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

adamantasaurus said:
God I really hope this passes I would be so happy!!! I will throw a prop 19 party!!




I'm sure many people will feel the same way.  I wonder how many pounds will be smoked in celebration around the world if this thing passes?


Quote:

Green_T said:
Read the comments on the source page. There are plenty of people, even cannabis users, who are against prop 19. They may have shallow reasons to vote no, but their vote counts nonetheless.

I have a feeling this will be close race.

Remember, a "yes" looks like a vote for prop 19. A "no" looks like a vote for prohibition.




I can't believe how prevalent the ignorance is on this issue with cannabis users.  If you smoke pot and vote no you are either greedy, racist, or just  :tard:


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The fire has many things to teach.
But so does the human experience.. which is like fire, sometimes you just need to stoke the coals and sometimes you just need to add a log or reposition the log matrix. But a well built fire will be much more self-sustaining than a poorly built one, and they all need love to grow. And don't fuck around or your might burn yourself. Must always respect the fire. - Shroomism

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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: Happy2fly]
    #13395065 - 10/27/10 12:26 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

the tijuana pot bust apparently has renewed faith in prohibition.. and the bust might very well have been staged by the cartels precisely for that reason...

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Offlinedragonhat
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: Annapurna1]
    #13395769 - 10/27/10 03:16 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Annapurna1 said:
the tijuana pot bust apparently has renewed faith in prohibition.. and the bust might very well have been staged by the cartels precisely for that reason...




The Tijuana bust was a good thing.  I don't want that dirty, seedy, brick crap being imported to my country for the same reason I don't want lead-lined children's toys being imported from China.

It's poor quality, no fun, and bad for your health.  Plus, it just unnecessarily sends US dollars outside the country.

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Invisiblenachohippie
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: dragonhat]
    #13395801 - 10/27/10 03:24 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

I am a cali med user who will be voting no on this law it is written by a greedy little rolling asshole it is bad for the state but if I lived in  different state I would want it passed as it is a step forward for the nation just don't want it ruining the rights we already have in cali as medical users :frown:


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send guns, money ,lawyers, and drugs its been a long night

everything i post is a lie im a pathological liar

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Offlinedragonhat
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: nachohippie]
    #13395903 - 10/27/10 03:45 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

I guess I'm not as familiar with the new law as you.  How would it hurt current medical users?

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OfflineChronicCluster
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: nachohippie]
    #13395968 - 10/27/10 03:56 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

nachohippie said:
I am a cali med user who will be voting no on this law it is written by a greedy little rolling asshole it is bad for the state but if I lived in  different state I would want it passed as it is a step forward for the nation just don't want it ruining the rights we already have in cali as medical users :frown:



It specifically states in the 'law' (whatever you wanna call it, i'm sleep depived. words escape me) that it would not affect the MMJ laws at all.
Please tell me how it's supposed to affect it?
Oh!  and if you could cite the actual document, that'd be great!


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: dragonhat]
    #13396019 - 10/27/10 04:03 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

dragonhat said:
Quote:

Annapurna1 said:
the tijuana pot bust apparently has renewed faith in prohibition.. and the bust might very well have been staged by the cartels precisely for that reason...




The Tijuana bust was a good thing.  I don't want that dirty, seedy, brick crap being imported to my country for the same reason I don't want lead-lined children's toys being imported from China.

It's poor quality, no fun, and bad for your health.  Plus, it just unnecessarily sends US dollars outside the country.




if it really was the shwaggy shit they busted..then it prolly was the cartel staging the bust for political purposes...they dont want prop19..but they would rather not have to destroy their best assets to that end either.. so they have the army burn the shwag and eat their cake and have it too..or something like that...


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InvisibleveggieM

Registered: 07/25/04
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: nachohippie]
    #13396030 - 10/27/10 04:06 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

You do realize that Prop 19 does not negate Prop 215. But it does give some of the same benefits to non medical users. Some patients I have talked to stated they want it all to themselves. That seems greedy to me as opposed to Richard Lee. I know some people dislike him mainly because he is now wealthy. For him to donate 1.5 million dollars to Prop 19 seems the opposite of greedy.

You resort to name calling and say you are against Prop 19 because 'it is bad for the state', without giving any specifics. Proponents and most critics conclude Prop 19 would have many benefits for the state. You obviously have reasons for being against Prop 19, would you mind saying what they are?

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OfflineOdd_Nonposter
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: Annapurna1]
    #13396168 - 10/27/10 04:26 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

I know that this sounds like a crazy conspiracy theory, :tinfoil: but sometimes I think that the polls are fabricated to influence public opinion.

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Offlinedragonhat
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: veggie]
    #13396584 - 10/27/10 05:49 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

veggie said:
You do realize that Prop 19 does not negate Prop 215. But it does give some of the same benefits to non medical users. Some patients I have talked to stated they want it all to themselves. That seems greedy to me as opposed to Richard Lee. I know some people dislike him mainly because he is now wealthy. For him to donate 1.5 million dollars to Prop 19 seems the opposite of greedy.





That's how it sounds to me, that a lot of 'medical' users want it all for themselves.

I say 'medical' because from what I hear, the majority of Cali medical users are just people who get a prescription for an invented ailment.

The herb should be legalized, and people who seriously need it for medical purposes should be separated from the ones who just want to get high.  Then, if the legalization craze sweeps the nation, and if marijuana becomes a nationally recognized medical treatment, people with AIDS, cancer, MS, or any other serious ailment could get their prescriptions covered by insurance (unlikely, I know, but it's the only way I could see insurance companies covering it, and the seriously sick being able to save some money).

I think people who are in legitimate suffering and find relief with cannabis would be more inclined to seeing it legalized outright, while people who just have a medical card so they can legally smoke pot are more likely to be the greedy ones who want to keep the privilege limited.

If I may ask Nachohippie, what exactly is your medical condition that you use marijuana for?

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Invisibletaterdb
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: dragonhat]
    #13398652 - 10/28/10 12:45 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

We should all want  freedom of choice,  anyone on this site i would think is against prohibition. This should be the core of the issue and we shouldn't let petty things like say money cloud our judgment. I say anyone that smokes pot but would vote against this has suspect motives.

Nachohippie was right about one thing; as someone that doesn't live in California but cares a lot about the issue, prop 19 is hugely symbolic. I believe it could be the key to causing a domino effect resulting in a new age of understanding and acceptance that changes things all over the world.

VOTE YES GOD DAMNIT!!

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InvisibleGreen_T
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: veggie]
    #13399132 - 10/28/10 03:11 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

veggie said:
You do realize that Prop 19 does not negate Prop 215. But it does give some of the same benefits to non medical users. Some patients I have talked to stated they want it all to themselves. That seems greedy to me as opposed to Richard Lee. I know some people dislike him mainly because he is now wealthy. For him to donate 1.5 million dollars to Prop 19 seems the opposite of greedy.

You resort to name calling and say you are against Prop 19 because 'it is bad for the state', without giving any specifics. Proponents and most critics conclude Prop 19 would have many benefits for the state. You obviously have reasons for being against Prop 19, would you mind saying what they are?




From the New York Times website, someone posted this comment as to why they are pro MMJ but con prop 19:

Quote:

@ Dinesh
"If you're a medical marijuana user and vote no because you feel your rights are being curtailed, you are ignorant of how the proposition is written and completely selfish."

My wife is using medical marijuana, thanks to inoperable pancreatic cancer. Thanks to GI surgery and the chemo, she couldn't hold anything down, including the marinol. Marijuana was hardly a cure all, but thanks to the fact it's inhaled she was able to finally get some sleep and start eating. It's not the best anti-nausea agent out there, but again, the delivery method helps. And it does stimulate appetite.

So, we should risk extra Federal attention to the CA marijuana co-ops just so you can relax with a joint on Friday evening? Yeah, arresting people for recreational pot possession and use is stupid. So goddamned what. Write a better law next time, or better yet, get it decriminalized at a Federal level like alcohol was. And damned right I'm selfish when it comes to my wife's life. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.




I think the point isn't legitimate because feds aren't going to swoop down on (medicinal) co-ops even more than they are now. If anything, they might do less because of how swamped they would be. Keep in mind the entire DEA has about half as many agents as the LAPD has officers.


--------------------

"I have sworn upon the altar of god eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man" - Thomas Jefferson

Legalize Meth | Drug War Victims

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OfflineMickalopagus
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Re: Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? [Re: nachohippie]
    #13399159 - 10/28/10 03:26 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

nachohippie said:
I am a cali med user who will be voting no on this law it is written by a greedy little rolling asshole it is bad for the state but if I lived in  different state I would want it passed as it is a step forward for the nation just don't want it ruining the rights we already have in cali as medical users :frown:





your argument is shoddy at best. Unless you can site some specific examples of how this is going to take your rights as a medical marijuana user, you are just another of the population of ignorant marijuana smokers who want to hoard it to themselves. puff puff give man... youre fucking up the rotation.


your vote should be about personal freedom, not about your weed; it is clear where you stand.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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