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InvisibleveggieM

Registered: 07/25/04
Posts: 17,538
Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41
    #13372670 - 10/22/10 05:49 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41: Anti-Marijuana Stigma Could Be Throwing Off Live Polling
October 22, 2010 - justsaynow.com

Yes on Proposition 19 has just released a set of internal numbers for polling they conducted last week, which compared responses given to live interviewers versus automated telephone polling. Interestingly, there is a huge divide between the level of support expressed for Prop 19 with the two methodologies.  They find that if an individual is responding only to a computer program, they are much more likely to express support for Prop 19.

Yes on Prop 19 (10/13-14)

Live interviews (with leaners):
Yes 41
No 46
Und/DK/Ref 14

Automatic interview:
Yes 56
No 41
Und/DK/Ref 4

I have previously speculated that Prop 19 might be do better in polls conducted without live interviewers. There is still a stigma in many communities attached to marijuana use which could make some voters embarrassed to tell a stranger over the phone they plan to vote for legalization.

PPP and SurveyUSA ,which use automatic interviews, have consistently shown greater support for the initiative. We have seen recently that SurveyUSA, using mostly automated interviews, found the measure winning 48-44 while PPIC, using live interviews, had it losing 44-49.

This internal polling from the campaign confirms not only that interviewees seem to be lying to live pollsters, but also that this effect is quite pronounced among certain groups — particularly young voters. In live interviews, voters under 30 support the measure only 49-37.  But in the automatic interviews, young voters support Prop 19 by an enormous  73-22 margin.

In general, ballot measures tend to be very difficult to poll. The social and legal issues associated with marijuana use makes things even more complicated. The ability to do a straight-up comparison of the results of automated versus live interview polling helps explain some of the wild discrepancies we’ve been seeing in Prop 19 polling of late.  The results provide very positive news for supporters of the measure, and if they are correct, Prop 19 will likely become law.

Yet the results also a reminder that we should treat all polling on this measure with a healthy dose of skepticism, given how hard it appears to be to get accurate information on how people truly  intend to vote come election day.

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InvisibleSuperD
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: veggie]
    #13372717 - 10/22/10 05:56 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Oh no!  What will people think of me when they discover I'm for the legalization of a benign plant!  The horror and embarrassment!  :awesurprise:


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:super:D
Manoa said:
I need to stop spending all my money on plants and take up a cheaper hobby, like heroin. :lol:

Looking for Rauhocereus riosaniensis seeds or live specimen(s), :pm: me if you have any for trade

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Offlineauronlives69
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: SuperD] * 1
    #13372773 - 10/22/10 06:10 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

dam the suspense is killing me :death:

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InvisibleInvisible_Woe


Registered: 05/25/07
Posts: 11,709
Loc: Mabase
Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: auronlives69]
    #13372827 - 10/22/10 06:20 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

auronlives69 said:
dam the suspense is killing me :death:



me too :dizope:


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These are not the answers you should be questioning.

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OfflineApes
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Invisible_Woe]
    #13372885 - 10/22/10 06:31 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

I'm all for legalization but no one seems to have read this prop 19 because it's not for the people or the plant. People should read it closer instead of voting on a concept (that this prop 19 doesn't really support). Such a smoke screen. If they vote against prop 19 then CA will come back with a waaaaay better legalization proposal. One worthy of the people and the plant. Prop 19 was written solely for big business.

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Invisibleastral_stardust
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Registered: 10/02/09
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13372980 - 10/22/10 06:48 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

We've had people polling about pot legalization in front of the grocery stores for the last few months, but I figured the results would be skewed. I know a lot of people (older ones especially) that support legalization but wouldn't participate because you have to give your name and they're afraid it could somehow be used against them. Considering the police state we live in, I don't blame them.


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http://twitter.com/sagewisdom09

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OfflineMagicMaker
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: astral_stardust]
    #13373045 - 10/22/10 07:01 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

lol at this article even becoming an article, like asking 200 people is even remotely going to give you the slightest of an idea of what the other almost 40million are going to vote on

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OfflineArSoniSt
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: MagicMaker]
    #13373107 - 10/22/10 07:13 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Fuck yeah FLCL.

Oh, and yeah most polls are bullshit, its anyones game.

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OfflineUbitsa
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13373541 - 10/22/10 08:41 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Apes said:
I'm all for legalization but no one seems to have read this prop 19 because it's not for the people or the plant. People should read it closer instead of voting on a concept (that this prop 19 doesn't really support). Such a smoke screen. If they vote against prop 19 then CA will come back with a waaaaay better legalization proposal. One worthy of the people and the plant. Prop 19 was written solely for big business.



I don't agree.

I think that as long as the legislation says it's legal, the details don't matter. 

Once you take away power from the cops with respect to marijuana, the will of the people will prevail.

If the gov't taxes it 100%, then people will grow it 'illegally' to avoid taxes.... but since it's legal there will be no prosectution, and things will work out just fine.


It's the same as alcohol... some counties in the US still forbid alcohol, but it doesn't matter, nobody even notices.


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OfflineApes
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Ubitsa]
    #13373586 - 10/22/10 08:55 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Ubitsa said:
Quote:

Apes said:
I'm all for legalization but no one seems to have read this prop 19 because it's not for the people or the plant. People should read it closer instead of voting on a concept (that this prop 19 doesn't really support). Such a smoke screen. If they vote against prop 19 then CA will come back with a waaaaay better legalization proposal. One worthy of the people and the plant. Prop 19 was written solely for big business.



I don't agree.

I think that as long as the legislation says it's legal, the details don't matter. 

Once you take away power from the cops with respect to marijuana, the will of the people will prevail.

If the gov't taxes it 100%, then people will grow it 'illegally' to avoid taxes.... but since it's legal there will be no prosectution, and things will work out just fine.


It's the same as alcohol... some counties in the US still forbid alcohol, but it doesn't matter, nobody even notices.




I don't know many people who would want to be arrested for breaking tax laws. It's only legalization on the surface. But most won't read it, they just wanna say the word, legalize and assume that's a trump card for never getting in trouble for it.

Edited by Apes (10/22/10 08:56 PM)

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OfflineUbitsa
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13373617 - 10/22/10 09:02 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Apes said:
I don't know many people who would want to be arrested for breaking tax laws.



When's the last time anyone paid tax for something they sold on craigslist?  Ever seen anyone prosecuted for that? 

Everyone hates the tax man, so he has much less power than police.  This is a very very important reality.


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OfflineApes
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Ubitsa]
    #13373672 - 10/22/10 09:12 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Ubitsa said:
When's the last time anyone paid tax for something they sold on craigslist?  Ever seen anyone prosecuted for that? 

Everyone hates the tax man, so he has much less power than police.  This is a very very important reality.




So you think the IRS has no power? interesting

Prop 19 was written to make money through taxes, if you think the penalties, that get decided after the fact(and that is pretty key), aren't going to be stiff AND enforced then I'm guessing you haven't read it or maybe are just a very wishful thinker. I do hope for the best but i doubt we'll get it. We are just sheep running after a 'concept', IMO

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Offlineguest1
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Ubitsa]
    #13373727 - 10/22/10 09:24 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

I'm all for legalization but no one seems to have read this prop 19 because it's not for the people or the plant. People should read it closer instead of voting on a concept (that this prop 19 doesn't really support). Such a smoke screen. If they vote against prop 19 then CA will come back with a waaaaay better legalization proposal. One worthy of the people and the plant. Prop 19 was written solely for big business.




:facepalm:

You need to realize that in order to even get Prop 19 to be something they were ABLE to vote on, they had to get a required number of signatures. If they come out with a "waaaaay better proposal" they may not get the support that they have now, which means you may not ever get to vote on it AT ALL... EVER! You have to realize that there are more than just the average joe who are going to be voting. There ARE big business's that are voting, there ARE policemen that are voting, there ARE all kinds of people voting.

If you just say "Prop 19-part-2, make marijuana 100% legal with no restrictions" you won't get nearly the support and may not even be able to vote on it. When you are changing such a controversial law, you have to take small steps so that people can see how it works before giving the people more power and less punishment.

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OfflineUbitsa
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13373748 - 10/22/10 09:29 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Apes said:if you think the penalties, that get decided after the fact(and that is pretty key), aren't going to be stiff AND enforced then I'm guessing you haven't read it or maybe are just a very wishful thinker.



Who's going to enforce it?  How are they going to enforce it?

Sorry, but you sound a bit out of touch with reality.

They can't just whip up a law that says "OK everybody has to buy their weed from big companies or pay a massive tax", and have it magically enforced.  Someone has to do the enforcing.


I'd be very interested in your ideas of how people are going to be "stiffly penalized" for growing/using/selling marijuana after it's legalized....


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OfflineApes
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Ubitsa]
    #13373805 - 10/22/10 09:42 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Ubitsa said:

Who's going to enforce it?  How are they going to enforce it?

Sorry, but you sound a bit out of touch with reality.

They can't just whip up a law that says "OK everybody has to buy their weed from big companies or pay a massive tax", and have it magically enforced.  Someone has to do the enforcing.


I'd be very interested in your ideas of how people are going to be "stiffly penalized" for growing/using/selling marijuana after it's legalized....





hahahaha. We'll I'm sure you'll find out.

As for being out of touch, I've been in the pot growing scene a whole lot longer than you can imagine.

They didn't write this proposal to give people the right to grow for free, they wrote it to tax the shit out of people to get their state out of severe debt. You bet your bottom they will find a way to enforce it. I'm sure some will get away with it but that's not the point. Do we have freedom to grow or not? With this lame proposal, we do not.

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OfflineUbitsa
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13373839 - 10/22/10 09:49 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Apes said:We'll I'm sure you'll find out.




In other words, you have no idea.  I thought so. 

They will make a ton of cash on taxes, with very little need to enforce anything - dispensaries etc will gladly pay taxes on their huge profits.

So, just like alcohol, nobody will give 2 shits if you make your own, they'll be too busy counting the cash they're making already.


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OfflineApes
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Ubitsa]
    #13373872 - 10/22/10 09:57 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Ubitsa said:

In other words, you have no idea.  I thought so. 

They will make a ton of cash on taxes, with very little need to enforce anything - dispensaries etc will gladly pay taxes on their huge profits.

So, just like alcohol, nobody will give 2 shits if you make your own, they'll be too busy counting the cash they're making already.





Nope, but you can put words in my mouth if it makes you feel better.

I find it amusing that in your version of legalization people may very well have to keep breaking laws in order to grow it. Doesn't seem like legalization or freedom to me. And you claim the taxman has little power. haaaaa. Why don't you test that theory and stop paying your AZ state taxes and see how far you get.. :laugh2:

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OfflineUbitsa
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13373904 - 10/22/10 10:05 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Apes said:
I find it amusing that in your version of legalization people may very well have to keep breaking laws in order to grow it. Doesn't seem like legalization or freedom to me.




Certainly it'd not ideal, I won't argue that.  But it is so, so much better than the current situation, that it's quite attractive.

Don't let the 50-50 poll numbers trick you, the number of people in this country who support *true* legalization of drugs is very small.

It will be a long time before legalization becomes the majority opinion, and Prop 19 will show people that legalized weed is nothing to be afraid of, and it will greatly speed up the changing of opinions.

Quote:

Apes said:
And you claim the taxman has no power. haaaaa. Why don't you test that theory and stop paying your AZ state taxes and see how far you get.. :laugh2:



Like I said before... I can sell stuff worth $1000's and not pay taxes, in fact many people do this already.  Nobody gets caught.

The reason people need to pay income, property tax etc, is because there are records which show who owes what.  It's quite easy to enforce.

But the IRS can only get you for the tax they *know* you owe....  they don't have agents running around with infrared cameras to find growops etc :tongue:


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OfflineApes
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Ubitsa]
    #13373916 - 10/22/10 10:09 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Obviously we disagree.

Good luck in your endeavors!

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Offlineadamantasaurus
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13374448 - 10/23/10 01:04 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Hell YES we should all donate to prop 19 even if it's as little as 5.00 I donated 10 you can donate hereto the just say now campaign and also support norml and ssdp I am starting chapters in both of those

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OfflineMickalopagus
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13374724 - 10/23/10 03:31 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Apes said:
Obviously we disagree.

Good luck in your endeavors!




I know people are waiting for the golden bill where everything is worked out, but that simply doesnt happen. Are you really ok risking the possible wait of another 30 years (and this could easily be the reality of it) for a measure to get enough support to make it to the polls, and then get voted on?

Laws can always be subject to amendments after they have been enacted. Why not do your part to try and initiate change in the bill after it is passed? Apes, I did not have 1.5 million dollars to selflessly put up for the legalization effort, and I doubt you or anyone else here does. I think you should support the effort that this person is making for your personal freedom.. Let the rest come later, it will.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Offlineshamrogorr
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Mickalopagus]
    #13374907 - 10/23/10 06:02 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

mick said:
Laws can always be subject to amendments after they have been enacted.




--------------------
Everything I say here is a lie.  Not including this, of course.

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OfflineRebirtha
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13375647 - 10/23/10 11:11 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Apes said:
Quote:

Ubitsa said:

Who's going to enforce it?  How are they going to enforce it?

Sorry, but you sound a bit out of touch with reality.

They can't just whip up a law that says "OK everybody has to buy their weed from big companies or pay a massive tax", and have it magically enforced.  Someone has to do the enforcing.


I'd be very interested in your ideas of how people are going to be "stiffly penalized" for growing/using/selling marijuana after it's legalized....





hahahaha. We'll I'm sure you'll find out.

As for being out of touch, I've been in the pot growing scene a whole lot longer than you can imagine.

They didn't write this proposal to give people the right to grow for free, they wrote it to tax the shit out of people to get their state out of severe debt. You bet your bottom they will find a way to enforce it. I'm sure some will get away with it but that's not the point. Do we have freedom to grow or not? With this lame proposal, we do not.




From what I've read of the bill we WILL have the right to grow it...tax free, the only restriction is a 25 square foot garden, which is hardly even enforced for medical marijuana..

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OfflineReposadoXochipilli
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13375904 - 10/23/10 12:13 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Apes said:
Quote:

Ubitsa said:

Who's going to enforce it?  How are they going to enforce it?

Sorry, but you sound a bit out of touch with reality.

They can't just whip up a law that says "OK everybody has to buy their weed from big companies or pay a massive tax", and have it magically enforced.  Someone has to do the enforcing.


I'd be very interested in your ideas of how people are going to be "stiffly penalized" for growing/using/selling marijuana after it's legalized....





hahahaha. We'll I'm sure you'll find out.

As for being out of touch, I've been in the pot growing scene a whole lot longer than you can imagine.

They didn't write this proposal to give people the right to grow for free, they wrote it to tax the shit out of people to get their state out of severe debt. You bet your bottom they will find a way to enforce it. I'm sure some will get away with it but that's not the point. Do we have freedom to grow or not? With this lame proposal, we do not.




Bingo you have your card and have made $ off it being illegal so of course you want to keep it that way, no one is going to buy 400$ OZ in California if everyone is growing. Try not to think of yourself, think about the social change and helping the 800,000 people that get fucked every year over this plant.


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OfflineApes
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: ReposadoXochipilli]
    #13376370 - 10/23/10 02:00 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Actually it will depend on where you live. They can tax you on your grow and some are already setting up ridiculous taxes that would run $20,000 a year for that 25 square feet.

I don't live in CA, but i do know many growers that do and none of the 'real' people in the scene want this particular one to pass. Only the greedy(big business) and the people that don't understand and are stuck on a concept they've dreamed about forever and will run after like a fly to the bug zapper.

They should have had Dennis Peron write this proposal not some greedy schmuck who already makes a fortune on it and wants to be the 'budweiser owner' of pot production and not even let you grow high grade for yourself, just medium grade.

And i am NOT thinking of myself only everyone's freedom and the social change.

Accusing me of greedy intentions is pretty laughable really but since we don't know each others story it's an easy assumption to make i guess.

I vote YES for legalization but NO for prop 19. It's just a sad smokescreen they know people will jump at no matter what the cost. At this point it's quite obvious CA has to have this pass in order to save their financial asses and if it didn't they would propose something better and it wouldn't take long at all.

Since most obviously haven't read the bill and are only stuck on a false concept of 'legalization', i urge you to read it. You will be shocked and enlightened.

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OfflineMickalopagus
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13376439 - 10/23/10 02:15 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

well im glad you dont live in cali then :wink:

i dont care man i respect your right to say no, this is america isnt it?

but i stand by my previous statement. until you pony up the money yourself to get something this far, i dont think you should be so willing to shoot it down. if it does pass, and its the big gear change for california... I at least know that I had a part in it, and tried hard to bring forth the change.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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OfflineApes
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Mickalopagus]
    #13376472 - 10/23/10 02:25 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

As long as money talks in the world of politics (instead of the people) we'll always be at the mercy of the 20% that handle 80% of the money. And they don't care about you, just their own financial agendas.

And if i could 'pony up the money' to have my political agendas met, I'd be a sick and greedy as them. No thanks! :wink:

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InvisibleInvisible_Woe


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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13376477 - 10/23/10 02:27 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

if its legalized, all i know is im going to visit...and smoke the legal pot :shrug:


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These are not the answers you should be questioning.

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InvisibleSuperD
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13376485 - 10/23/10 02:29 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Look, I think everyone here agrees Prop 19 is FAR from a perfect bill.  The problem is, we HAVE to start somewhere and that somewhere is the passing of this bill.  If this bill passes, we can make AMENDMENTS to it to make everything more fair for everybody.  Right now we can't even progress that far, because marijuana for recreational purposes is not legal anywhere!  Get it passed, make amendments to it, and continue voting on other legalization bills once they spring up.


--------------------
:super:D
Manoa said:
I need to stop spending all my money on plants and take up a cheaper hobby, like heroin. :lol:

Looking for Rauhocereus riosaniensis seeds or live specimen(s), :pm: me if you have any for trade

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OfflineMickalopagus
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Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Apes]
    #13376736 - 10/23/10 03:39 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Apes said:
As long as money talks in the world of politics (instead of the people) we'll always be at the mercy of the 20% that handle 80% of the money. And they don't care about you, just their own financial agendas.

And if i could 'pony up the money' to have my political agendas met, I'd be a sick and greedy as them. No thanks! :wink:




In the US it is less than 5% that handles 90% of the US wealth... probably the biggest disparity the US has ever seen. If you wait for that to change before you vote yes.... you and your great grandchildren will be waiting a long time. But like you said, youre not even voting... and your friends who own dispensaries or deal or whatever, well, its up to them to decide for themselves whats right, and what theyre preserving or sacrificing.

I think it reminds me of that song by pink floyd: "Would you exchange a walk on part in a war, for a lead role in a cage..." Some people may be happy with the status quo because they can afford a nice life and skip under the radar while others make the true sacrifice, I am not...


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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OfflineMrNobody
Loser

Registered: 01/22/02
Posts: 178
Last seen: 13 years, 6 months
Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Mickalopagus]
    #13426095 - 11/02/10 10:09 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

it passed

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OfflineMickalopagus
living in perverty
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Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 15,084
Last seen: 15 minutes, 21 seconds
Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: MrNobody]
    #13426458 - 11/02/10 11:07 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)

what passed?


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Offlinemadsick
whoremonger
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Registered: 03/19/08
Posts: 773
Last seen: 1 year, 3 months
Re: Automated Polls Show Prop 19 Winning 56-41 [Re: Mickalopagus]
    #13426792 - 11/03/10 12:19 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

i dont think it did:(

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