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OfflineCaptainAhab


Registered: 12/25/09
Posts: 1,875
Last seen: 6 years, 3 months
Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says
    #13329244 - 10/13/10 02:59 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Ready for another speculation piece from the smell-ay times (LA Times)?

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-1013-pot-mexico-20101013,0,3986067.story?track=rss

Proposition 19, which would partially legalize marijuana in California, would do little to curtail the violent Mexican organizations that smuggle it across the border, according to a new study by drug policy researchers that takes aim at one of the main arguments proponents have made for the initiative.

The report released Tuesday by Rand Corp., the nonpartisan research institute in Santa Monica, estimates that legalized marijuana could displace the Mexican marijuana sold in California, but concludes that would erase no more than 2% to 4% of the revenues the gangs receive from drug exports.

"It's hard to imagine a scenario where Prop. 19 has a dramatic influence on their revenues. We just don't see that happening," said Beau Kilmer, co-director of Rand's Drug Policy Research Center.

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The researchers said the only way California's legal pot could cut significantly into cartel revenues is if it were sold across the country. They were skeptical that would happen. "It's very hard to imagine that the feds would sit idly by and just let California marijuana dominate the country," Kilmer said.

Much of the analysis rests on the conclusion that drug organizations earn far less from marijuana exported to the United States than previously estimated. Researchers put that income at about $1.5 billion, while federal government reports have set it as high as $14.3 billion.

Proposition 19 would allow cities and counties to authorize the cultivation and sales of marijuana. It's unclear how many would do that, but some cities, such as Oakland, are already poised to approve it. It's also unclear whether the Obama administration would allow it, since marijuana is illegal under federal law. The researchers do not address those issues.

The initiative would also allow people 21 and older to possess as much as an ounce and grow up to 25 square feet of marijuana.

The initiative on the Nov. 2 ballot has triggered a serious debate south of the border, where a four-year campaign against drug gangs has left about 30,000 people dead. Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon stressed his opposition, saying that the U.S. has done too little to suppress consumption. But Calderon's predecessor, Vicente Fox, supports the initiative and has called for legalization in Mexico.

Stephen Gutwillig, California director of the Drug Policy Alliance and an advocate of the initiative, said marijuana prohibition has failed because it has created a massive underground economy controlled by violent criminals. "Ending marijuana prohibition, bringing the multibillion-dollar marijuana market into the light of day and under the rule of law, will deal a major blow to criminal syndicates on both sides of the border," he said. "California can't put these cartels out of business by itself, but Prop. 19 is a crucial first step."

President Obama's drug czar, Gil Kerlikowske, embraced the report's conclusion that Proposition 19 would not put the cartels out of business. "When you're a thug and a criminal and a killer, you're not going to get your MBA and work for a company in Mexico," he said. Kerlikowske, a former Seattle police chief, said that with drug use increasing, more emphasis should be placed on protecting young people from illegal drugs, including marijuana.

The Rand analysis dismissed a frequently cited U.S. government estimate that marijuana sales make up about 60% of cartel export revenues. Marijuana revenues fall between 15% and 26%, according to the report.The researchers could find no documentation to support the higher estimate.

"This 60% figure is a truly mythical number, one that appeared out of nowhere and that has acquired great authority," they wrote. "This figure should not be taken seriously."

Kerlikowske said it was based on outdated information and said he is pressing for better data collection. "It's pretty hard to foster support for public policy if your numbers are soft," he said.

The report notes that U.S. government estimates of marijuana production "have long been inconsistent and sometimes implausible." To illustrate the absurdity of one production estimate, the researchers calculated that regular users would have to smoke a joint every two hours they are awake.

As part of their study, which they acknowledge is replete with uncertainties that could alter the results, the researchers made numerous calculations such as determining the average weight of a joint: 0.46 grams.

The researchers conclude that Mexican marijuana, which is lower in quality and and contains less of the main psychoactive ingredient than California-grown pot, has a U.S. market share between 40% and 67%.

Comparing the Mexican drug gangs to the American Mafia, the researchers said that they would find other businesses to replace pot, just as the Mafia replaced bootlegging when alcohol prohibition ended. In the short term, they concluded, violence might even increase as gangs fight over smaller revenues.


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OfflineCaptainAhab


Registered: 12/25/09
Posts: 1,875
Last seen: 6 years, 3 months
Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: CaptainAhab]
    #13329258 - 10/13/10 03:08 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Mexican marijuana has 40-67 percent of the US market share? I haven't smoked in a long time, but can someone tell me if this is actually true?


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OfflineCaptainAhab


Registered: 12/25/09
Posts: 1,875
Last seen: 6 years, 3 months
Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: CaptainAhab]
    #13329264 - 10/13/10 03:11 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

It's also ironic that in the same issue they have a story about a pot deal gone bad involving a shooting. There wouldn't be any of this BS around if pot were legal.

http://www.pe.com/localnews/inland/stories/PE_News_Local_D_sshooting13.2b445fa.html


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InvisibleveggieM

Registered: 07/25/04
Posts: 17,538
Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: CaptainAhab]
    #13329273 - 10/13/10 03:16 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

A rebuttal ...

Rand Study: Marijuana Legalization Would Markedly Cut Mexican Drug Cartel Profits
October 12, 2010 - justsaynow.com

The Rand Corporation is notorious for its history of pro-drug-war studies. A report of theirs from earlier this year on Proposition 19 was full of dubious claims based on what even they had to admit were just guesses. Once again, with their newest report about marijuana legalization, the Rand Corporation buries the lede from their own study, one which strongly supporters the anti-cartel claims made by marijuana reformers. While not part of the press release, the study, in fact, backs up one of the main arguments of the supporters of marijuana legalization. The study determines legalizing, taxing and regulating marijuana could eliminate all the profits the Mexican drug cartels currently make thanks to cannabis prohibition. From the Rand Study (PDF):

We believe that legalizing marijuana in California would effectively eliminate Mexican DTOs’ revenues from supplying Mexican-grown marijuana to the California market. As we elaborate in this chapter, even with taxes, legally produced marijuana would likely cost no more than would illegal marijuana from Mexico and would cost less than half as much per unit of THC (Kilmer, Caulkins, Pacula, et al., 2010). Thus, the needs of the California market would be supplied by the new legal industry. While, in theory, some DTO employees might choose to work in the legal marijuana industry, they would not be able to generate unusual profits, nor be able to draw on talents that are particular to a criminal organization.

Of course, this is not the story the Rand Corporation wanted to push. Instead, their press release was shaped to encourage the media to write stories with a fairly negative spin on Prop 19.  The study tries to call into question the US government’s statistic
(also cited by supporters of Proposition 19) that marijuana accounts for 60 percent of Mexican drug cartel profits. According to their study, which they admit is full of uncertainty, marijuana sold in the US accounts for only about $2 billion in annual revenue, and about 15 to 26 percent of all revenue for Mexican drug cartels. Not surprisingly, since California is only one of 50 states, legalization of marijuana in California alone would, they project, only cut off a portion of the cartels’ profits from marijuana. This leads to a finding by Rand–which they try to present as damaging to pro-legalization arguments–that the passage of Prop 19 would only eliminate about two to four perent of cartel profits.

Leaving the vagaries of their numbers aside, any supporter of marijuana legalization knows that you won’t fully eliminate the illicit profits from marijuana in this country until it is fully legalized and regulated. No one has been claiming just the passage Prop 19 alone would eliminate all of the Mexican drug cartels’ marijuana profits across the whole country. Prop 19 is just the first big step toward a broader adoption of a more sensible marijuana policy that denies the cartels a huge source of funding.

What is important is that even this Rand study fully backs up the inherent logic of those pushing for marijuana legalization (see page 19). The study shows legalizing and regulating marijuana in one region would effectively shut down the cartels’ lucrative marijuana trade to that location. Whether legalizing and regulating marijuana in this country would take away 60, 50, or only 26 percent of the dangerous Mexican drug cartels’ revenue is impossible to pinpoint, due to the lack of good statistics on illegal products. Whether legalizing marijuana would make the murderous cartels terrorizing Mexico $6 billion a year poorer or a mere $2 billion, I still think it is a very good idea to take the first step toward depriving dangerous criminals of billions of dollars in revenue.


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InvisibleGreen_T
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: CaptainAhab]
    #13329274 - 10/13/10 03:16 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

This is the part that made me :facepalm: :

Quote:

The researchers said the only way California's legal pot could cut significantly into cartel revenues is if it were sold across the country. They were skeptical that would happen. "It's very hard to imagine that the feds would sit idly by and just let California marijuana dominate the country," Kilmer said.




So isn't that reason to legalize across the country?

They are ignoring the point that the cartels income in California will drop as a result of this. So if they make most of their money in Oklahoma, then of course legalization in CA won't do much. The answer, of course, is to then legalize in Oklahoma!


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"I have sworn upon the altar of god eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man" - Thomas Jefferson

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OfflineNewfound_wonder
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Registered: 03/14/08
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: Green_T]
    #13329410 - 10/13/10 05:05 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

All this means is that it needs to be legalized nationwide in order to stop the evil drug cartel.


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If it's good for fungus, it's good for us...

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Offlineguest1
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: Newfound_wonder]
    #13329720 - 10/13/10 07:54 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

You have to start somewhere. If they won't completely legalize cannabis worldwide, start with a single state with taxing and regulating, see how that goes, give it a chance. Just because Prop 19 passes, does not mean it will remain in effect for the rest of eternity, the law can change again for increasing or decreasing penalties.:hi:

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Offlineauronlives69
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Registered: 04/19/09
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: CaptainAhab]
    #13329753 - 10/13/10 08:10 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

all the evidence that legalization will bring down the cartel is right there waving in there faces, ey shit i dont see mafiosos bootlegging anymore wtf did they just run out of excuses or summthing

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Invisibleunknown1123
Experimental

Registered: 05/15/08
Posts: 5,813
Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: auronlives69]
    #13329895 - 10/13/10 09:04 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

if they wanted to really cripple the cartels, legalize all drugs.


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OfflineHappy2fly
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: CaptainAhab]
    #13329919 - 10/13/10 09:15 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

CaptainAhab said:
the researchers calculated that regular users would have to smoke a joint every two hours they are awake.





That's not a reasonable estimate? :gethigh:


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The fire has many things to teach.
But so does the human experience.. which is like fire, sometimes you just need to stoke the coals and sometimes you just need to add a log or reposition the log matrix. But a well built fire will be much more self-sustaining than a poorly built one, and they all need love to grow. And don't fuck around or your might burn yourself. Must always respect the fire. - Shroomism

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Offlinefapjack
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Registered: 07/26/07
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: auronlives69]
    #13333729 - 10/13/10 10:36 PM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Cartels make more money on cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine.  Also, considering the cartels already have people growing marijuana inside of California, whos to say they won't continue smuggling marijuana from California to other states?  I believe in legalizing marijuana, but I really don't think this will effect the cartels anywhere near as much as people are claiming.


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InvisibleSuperD
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: fapjack]
    #13333787 - 10/13/10 10:54 PM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Even if marijuana only accounted for 1% of the cartels' profits, we still have a plethora of other legitimate reasons legalization needs to happen as soon as possible.


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I need to stop spending all my money on plants and take up a cheaper hobby, like heroin. :lol:

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InvisibleFlop Johnson
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Registered: 09/22/05
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: fapjack]
    #13333936 - 10/13/10 11:41 PM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

fapjack said:
Cartels make more money on cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine.




wrong.

almost every estimate puts cartel profits from marijuana @ above 50% of their total revenue

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Offlinefapjack
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: Flop Johnson]
    #13334218 - 10/14/10 01:13 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Shwag isn't worth shit in the border states, cocaine is worth a shit load more and has a much higher demand.  At one time I wouldn't argue with marijuana being there biggest cash crop, but most of the cocaine in the US is coming through Mexico now and a lot more marijuana is being grown domestically, as well coming from Canada.  I've also read that the cartels are a lot more lax about other people smuggling marijuana vs people smuggling cocaine or heroin.  You can cite as many sources as you want, common sense says that you would make a lot more money selling cocaine than shitty brick weed.  My friend used to buy shwag with camal bucks in AZ, what does that tell you?


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InvisibleFlop Johnson
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Registered: 09/22/05
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: fapjack]
    #13334281 - 10/14/10 01:40 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Common sense would tell you that about 10000x more people use weed than coke

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OfflineCaptainAhab


Registered: 12/25/09
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: fapjack]
    #13334297 - 10/14/10 01:47 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

fapjack said:
Shwag isn't worth shit in the border states




Is it really shwag that Mexicans are bringing north, as in bammar or brown weed? I would've thought that they'd at least try to grow something half way decent. Is all Mexican weed really shit?


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Offlinefapjack
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: Flop Johnson]
    #13334890 - 10/14/10 08:33 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Its closer to 10X as many people use marijuana than cocaine. Cocaine is worth more than 10x more than shwag, and most cocaine comes from Mexico were as most marijuana comes from the US.


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InvisibleGreen_T
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: fapjack]
    #13334984 - 10/14/10 09:11 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

I really want to know where the cartel's weed is produced, and where it goes. Everyone talks about the schwag and such, but people must be buying it if they are producing it! I wouldn't be surprised if they have decent outdoor grows in Humboldt and distribute it east.

Soon enough, all the "progressive" states will have legalized and not have any cartel problems, whilst Texas and the like will be having gunfights on their streets. I'm willing to bet the conservative states will blame their cartel problems on California's legal weed, and not their prohibition.


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"I have sworn upon the altar of god eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man" - Thomas Jefferson

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InvisibleFlop Johnson
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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: CaptainAhab]
    #13335396 - 10/14/10 11:29 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

CaptainAhab said:
Quote:

fapjack said:
Shwag isn't worth shit in the border states




Is it really shwag that Mexicans are bringing north, as in bammar or brown weed? I would've thought that they'd at least try to grow something half way decent. Is all Mexican weed really shit?




a great deal, actually the vast majority, of weed grown on public land in the U.S. is driven by the cartels

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InvisibleveggieM

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Re: Legalizing pot in California would hardly dent cartels' revenue, report says [Re: veggie]
    #13336924 - 10/14/10 06:11 PM (13 years, 7 months ago)

What Exactly Did that RAND Study Say About Cartels and Marijuana?
October 14, 2010 - enewspf.com

Washington, D.C.--(ENEWSPF)--October 14, 2010.  If you believe most headline writers, the RAND Corporation released a study on Tuesday that said ending marijuana prohibition in California would do little to take away profits from Mexican drug cartels. But if you take the time to actually read the study, you’ll learn that Mexican cartels make billions of dollars from exporting marijuana to the United States (not including profits from the marijuana they grow within our borders), that a statistic originally put forward by the U.S. drug czar’s office was based on little and “should not be taken seriously,” and that removing marijuana from the criminal market in California (just one state) would deprive the cartels several percentage points worth of their revenue.

In short, the report tells us what we already knew: the cartels make huge profits from illicit marijuana sales, the U.S. drug czar’s office is prone to spreading misinformation, and the passage of Prop 19 in California could be a first crucial step toward dealing a much larger blow to the cartels’ revenue.

Let’s address these points one at a time:

How much money do the cartels make from marijuana? RAND estimates the cartels make somewhere around $1.5 to $2 billion annually “from moving marijuana across the border into the United States and selling it to wholesalers.” But this estimate makes a serious omission: How much money are the cartels making from all the marijuana they grow within U.S. borders? “This [$2 billion] figure does not include revenue from [cartel] production and distribution in the United States,” the report says, “which is extremely difficult to estimate with current data.” That’s a huge lapse, especially considering that every year, the Campaign Against Marijuana Planting digs up literally millions of marijuana plants that authorities blame on illegal cartel growers. In order for RAND’s estimate to have any meaning, marijuana grown by the cartels in the U.S. needs to be taken into account.

What percentage of the cartels’ revenue comes from marijuana? It’s been widely stated by legalization opponents and advocates (including myself) that the cartels make 60 percent of their revenue from selling marijuana in the U.S. Our source for that statistic was none other than the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy. But now RAND says that number isn’t true:

The ubiquitous claim that 60 percent of Mexican [drug trafficking organizations’] export revenue come from U.S. marijuana consumption should not be taken seriously. No publicly available source verifies or explains this figure and subsequent analyses revealed great uncertainty about the estimate (GAO, 2007). Our analysis— though preliminary on this point—suggests that 15–26 percent is a more credible range of the share of drug export revenues attributable to [marijuana].

I have no way of confirming which of those estimates is closer to the truth. But either way, says NORML’s Paul Armentano, “someone is lying.”

So who should we believe? On the one hand we have the federal government, which consistently lies about marijuana to further their own agenda. On the other hand, we have RAND, which also isn’t above making its own specious claims to further their own agenda — which in this case seems to be opposing California’s Prop. 19.

And more importantly: so what? If the cartels make 15 to 26 percent of their revenue from marijuana, that is still a hugely significant sum, and it shouldn’t discredit the argument that legalizing marijuana would hurt the cartels (an argument made not just by advocates in the U.S., but also former Mexican president Vicente Fox and many others). According to RAND, it could deprive them up to a quarter of their profits.

Pete Guither does a nice job summing up the headache this causes:

The government comes out and says that 60% of the cartels’ income is from marijuana. Legalizers say that legalizing will hurt the cartels (true) and mention the government’s numbers. Rand comes out and says that the government was lying through its teeth, but they don’t really know for sure what the real numbers are, but probably lower, and therefore the legalizers’ argument for legalization is supposedly weakened. And yet they admit that the legalizers’ core argument is true (that legalization will hurt the cartels – see above). Then they word their press release in such a way that they know the newspapers will report it as a blow to Prop 19.

So how much of an impact could Prop 19 have on the cartels? RAND estimates that Prop 19’s passage could decrease cartel revenue by 2 to 4 percent. For a single state initiative, those numbers aren’t small potatoes.

We believe that legalizing marijuana in California would effectively eliminate Mexican DTOs’ revenues from supplying Mexican-grown marijuana to the California market. As we elaborate in this chapter, even with taxes, legally produced marijuana would likely cost no more than would illegal marijuana from Mexico and would cost less than half as much per unit of THC (Kilmer, Caulkins, Pacula, et al., 2010). Thus, the needs of the California market would be supplied by the new legal industry. While, in theory, some DTO employees might choose to work in the legal marijuana industry, they would not be able to generate unusual profits, nor be able to draw on talents that are particular to a criminal organization.

But somehow RAND portrays this negatively. Of course, legalizing marijuana in a single state wouldn’t completely wipe out the cartels. But what MPP and others advocate is that marijuana be taxed and regulated like alcohol nationwide. Passing Prop 19 would simply be the first step toward doing that. Jon Walker from Just Say Now gets it right:

No one has been claiming just the passage Prop 19 alone would eliminate all of the Mexican drug cartels’ marijuana profits across the whole country. Prop 19 is just the first big step toward a broader adoption of a more sensible marijuana policy that denies the cartels a huge source of funding.

And of course, until Prop 19 or some similar initiative is passed in an American state, this entire debate will remain abstract and hypothetical. It’s up to California voters to make it a reality on Nov. 2.

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