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skatealex2
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Registered: 07/04/08
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Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use?
#13303385 - 10/07/10 11:14 AM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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As California moves toward the legalization of marijuana — next month, voters will decide on Proposition 19, the Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010 — a key question remains: could the new law produce a whole generation of stoners? Opponents of legalization say, yes, fearing it will lead to a massive increase in pot smoking among youth. But some supporters suggest the opposite: legalizing cannabis could de-glamorize it and ultimately prompt reductions in toking. Who's right?
That question is surprisingly hard to answer, but two recent research reports offer some potentially useful insight. The first, a Rand Corporation report that led to related testimony before the California legislature on Sept. 21, discusses the effects of price changes and taxation on consumption of drugs. (More on Time.com: What's in Your Marijuana? Some Pot Doesn't Rot Your Memory)
A newer report, released Thursday, comes from the new scientist-led International Centre for Science in Drug Policy (ICSDP). It takes a historical look at how U.S. drug policy has affected use, and suggests how to regulate drugs effectively.
One thing the ICSDP report makes clear is that current U.S. drug policy has no effect on marijuana prices or use. While spending on federal drug law enforcement has increased 1,200% and marijuana arrests have risen 150% since 1981, the rate of marijuana use nationwide has bounced around, with no relationship to these efforts.
"No scientific evidence demonstrates an association between the amount of money governments spend on drug law enforcement and rates of drug use," says Dr. Evan Wood, a professor of medicine at the University of British Columbia, founder of ICSDP and lead author of the report. "And some nations like the U.S., which spend the most have among the highest rates of drug use." (More on Time.com: 30 Years Since 'Jimmy's World': The Media and Drugs)
Meanwhile, according to national surveys, high school students continue to report that marijuana is universally available, purity has increased and prices have fallen.
The Rand report forecasts how legalization and taxation of marijuana could affect its market price and overall use in California. Although the public tends to view drug users, and addicts in particular, as too irrational and irresponsible to base their behavior on drug prices, research debunks these notions. Studies on legal drugs, such as alcohol and tobacco, for example, show that taxing them and raising prices can often be quite effective in lowering consumption — even among the heaviest users. "After legalization, we expect a large price drop. That's the biggest take away message from this report," says Beau Kilmer, co-director of the Rand Drug Policy Research Center and lead author of the report. "We expect the price [of marijuana] to drop at least 80%. There are a couple of other figures out there, ours falls in the middle and you can quibble about the details but there's a general agreement that the price will drop."
The trick is to determining how high to set the tax — the price has to be high enough to minimize consumption, but low enough to avoid creating a black market. Kilmer says that the current price for an ounce of good sinsemilla (a type of highly potent marijuana) ranges from $250 to $400. "If that drops down to $50 to $60 an ounce, it would require a really large tax to get [the price back up to that level]. But if the tax is set too high, [we] worry about tax evasion," he says. (More on Time.com: Is Drug Use Really on the Rise?)
Experts disagree on how much tax evasion occurs under California's tobacco tax regime, with smokers ordering cigarettes by mail to avoid state taxes, for instance. Some put the figure at 1% to 4%, but the agency that administers the state's tobacco taxes has said that the rate is more like 15%. Either way, the majority of cigarette taxes do seem to be paid rather than evaded.
Kilmer notes, however, that if Prop 19 passes, each local jurisdiction can set its own tax rate, which could prompt a "race to the bottom," as localities compete for a piece of the pie. "Regardless of how you feel about Prop 19, how to stop a race to the bottom is going to be important for everyone. No one wins if we end up with a really low tax rate on a really low price," Kilmer says. To prevent that, he suggests that the state government could withhold certain types of funding to localities that set marijuana taxes under a certain limit.
But let's say the price of marijuana does end up dropping precipitously. What effect might that have on consumption? Neither report can answer that. "Ultimately, we don't come up with a conclusion at all on a consumption increase," Kilmer says, explaining that many factors other than price can affect use.
The highest rates of marijuana use reported in the U.S. were in the late 1970s and early '80s, despite harsh drug laws. At the time 60% of high school seniors reported trying marijuana at least once; by comparison, the rate in 2009 was 42%. And what became of Generation X? The kids seem to have turned out all right.
Other countries that have decriminalized or quasi-legalized marijuana — such as Portugal and Holland — also have not seen social disasters because of their drug laws. In fact, they have benefited from reduced enforcement costs and increased access to addiction treatment.
One study did find that rates of marijuana use among Dutch youth increased when "coffee shops" — cafes where selling and smoking of marijuana are permitted — were proliferating and being widely marketed. But, overall, even those elevated rates of use were no higher than U.S. rates under marijuana prohibition. "It wasn't the decriminalization, it was commercialization that could have caused this," says Kilmer.
Advertising and commercialization may end up being cause for concern in the U.S. as well, given that medical marijuana ads already seem to be sustaining some newspapers. But, then again, even if Prop 19 passes, marijuana wouldn't be completely legal — it would still be prohibited under federal drug laws, which could put pressure on the Obama Administration to enforce them (though this Wall Street Journal article suggests that supporting legalization measures could be a boon for Democrats — putting similar measures on other states' ballots could draw out some key voters on Election Day).
Many questions remain about what will happen if Proposition 19 passes, but the only result I can unequivocally predict is that drug policy debates will finally become less theoretical — and much more interesting.
http://healthland.time.com/2010/10/07/prop-19-analysis-will-marijuana-legalization-increase use/
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guest1
Mycena




Registered: 05/25/09
Posts: 852
Last seen: 1 year, 5 months
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Re: Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use? [Re: skatealex2]
#13303535 - 10/07/10 11:48 AM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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If they "tax and regulate" this will cause many people who claimed they didn't smoke, to admit to smoking, this will give the illusion that more people smoke. As far as if more people will smoke or not, I don't know, it depends on each person. Is it worth the potential addiction? That is up to the individual, regardless of the law.
As far as price, the price on a pack of cannabis cigarettes, should be the same as a pack of tobacco cigarettes, if the cost to manufacture is the same.
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Razzl3Frazzl3


Registered: 07/31/09
Posts: 4,630
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Re: Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use? [Re: guest1]
#13303687 - 10/07/10 12:23 PM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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Just look at Holland.
Quote:
guest1 said: If they "tax and regulate" this will cause many people who claimed they didn't smoke, to admit to smoking, this will give the illusion that more people smoke. As far as if more people will smoke or not, I don't know, it depends on each person. Is it worth the potential addiction? That is up to the individual, regardless of the law.
As far as price, the price on a pack of cannabis cigarettes, should be the same as a pack of tobacco cigarettes, if the cost to manufacture is the same.
That's a pretty good point. All the closet smokers will come out, making it seem like so much more.
As far as the price, even if they are pre-rolled, the pack should contain x amount of grams of cannabis for a set price. I think they should have 5, 10 and 20 joint packs. I guess it will depend on the quality of the cannabis. I think they should have varying "strength cigarettes". Then again, legal or not, i don't smoke joints. I would break them down to bowls.
Does anyone know how much tobacco is in a cigarette? How many mgs of material, i mean.
Hey you smokers, someone sacrifice one for science! I liked to know what the whole cig weighs, and what the material only weighs.
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Shoofles
Bright Eyed, Bushy Tailed


Registered: 12/18/09
Posts: 25
Last seen: 11 years, 7 months
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Re: Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use? [Re: Razzl3Frazzl3]
#13303741 - 10/07/10 12:34 PM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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Agree on closet smokers coming out and artificially raising the statistics.
Also, I've read other articles claiming that drug use is declining with the Millennial generation of kids. Legal availability will not remove the stigma around pot created by opponents such as AboveTheInfluence.
I'm looking forward to users being able to grow their own.
-------------------- Kill corporation forces for a bonus score!
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Scruffy404
Stranger


Registered: 05/31/09
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Loc: BC
Last seen: 13 years, 2 months
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Re: Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use? [Re: Shoofles]
#13303930 - 10/07/10 01:09 PM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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When alcohol was made legal did it increase use? That should give you the answer right there. You have people who drink And You Have people Who Don't. Honestly the numbers are already there. And yes Use might increase a bit but that would be due to a lot of other medications being replaced by it patients switching over.
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Sheekle
FREE BURKE



Registered: 01/11/10
Posts: 53,153
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Re: Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use? [Re: skatealex2]
#13304048 - 10/07/10 01:32 PM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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Well that article kinda pissed me off. Who gives a fuck if more people smoke, raising the tax on weed just to prevent more people from smoking is stupid as hell. Keep the price cheap, weed is so overpriced    
-------------------- "Ur cat died because he hated u" - Koods "I hope JSB kicks your ass one day." - Vandago "you are the biggest 'internet guy' I have ever come across"- Jokeshopbeard "The more I see you post the more I realize you're just this fuckin tie dye loser who trolls the Shroomery 24/7." - Herbologist "Sheekle you cannot vile the dice of bullshit you have posted on this forum over the years, I like databases" - thelastoneleft "or maybe i just come from a blood line of superior intelligence" - trees R.I.P Kelsy, ?/?/?? - 6/11/16
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veggie

Registered: 07/25/04
Posts: 17,538
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Re: Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use? [Re: skatealex2]
#13304067 - 10/07/10 01:36 PM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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>>As California moves toward the legalization of marijuana — next month, voters will decide on Proposition 19, the Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010 — a key question remains: could the new law produce a whole generation of stoners? Opponents of legalization say, yes, fearing it will lead to a massive increase in pot smoking among youth. But some supporters suggest the opposite: legalizing cannabis could de-glamorize it and ultimately prompt reductions in toking. Who's right?<<
Who cares? The point is that marijuana prohibition has done absolutely nothing to prevent marijuana use but has made it more accessible to children who are more likely to try it at a younger age. Prop 19 will regulate marijuana sales to adults 21 and over to minimize exposure to kids. That's a good thing.
Whether marijuana use increases in adults, also who cares? Any adult that wants to use pot now, can and does. When it's legal that won't change much. There may be some alcohol drinkers and hard drug users that will move over to pot. That also is a good thing. A very good thing.
Although interesting to discuss, whether legalization will increase use, it is of such a small concern in comparison to the overall benefits to society that marijuana legalization will provide.
If the prohibitionists are truly concerned about the kids, legalization is the way to go. If they really have another agenda they need to just say what it is, or come up with some plausible argument. But any valid argument for prohibition has been debunked ages ago.
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ripten
loner

Registered: 01/28/10
Posts: 206
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Re: Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use? [Re: veggie]
#13304115 - 10/07/10 01:50 PM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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If prop 19 passed, cannabis usage probably will increase with adults initially, but I think it will drop for kids/teenagers because it will become difficult for them to get it, kind of like with alcohol.
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blujay
pass it b*ch!



Registered: 04/01/09
Posts: 5,120
Last seen: 8 years, 9 months
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Re: Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use? [Re: Razzl3Frazzl3]
#13304831 - 10/07/10 04:29 PM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
SquaReSaltine said: Just look at Holland.
Quote:
guest1 said: If they "tax and regulate" this will cause many people who claimed they didn't smoke, to admit to smoking, this will give the illusion that more people smoke. As far as if more people will smoke or not, I don't know, it depends on each person. Is it worth the potential addiction? That is up to the individual, regardless of the law.
As far as price, the price on a pack of cannabis cigarettes, should be the same as a pack of tobacco cigarettes, if the cost to manufacture is the same.
That's a pretty good point. All the closet smokers will come out, making it seem like so much more.
As far as the price, even if they are pre-rolled, the pack should contain x amount of grams of cannabis for a set price. I think they should have 5, 10 and 20 joint packs. I guess it will depend on the quality of the cannabis. I think they should have varying "strength cigarettes". Then again, legal or not, i don't smoke joints. I would break them down to bowls.
Does anyone know how much tobacco is in a cigarette? How many mgs of material, i mean.
Hey you smokers, someone sacrifice one for science! I liked to know what the whole cig weighs, and what the material only weighs.
half gram a cig, fyi.
--------------------
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chiefin123

Registered: 04/13/10
Posts: 325
Last seen: 2 years, 3 months
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Re: Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use? [Re: blujay]
#13305687 - 10/07/10 07:59 PM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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decriminalization might decrease use in time, but legalization certainly wont, but it will expose more people to accruate drug information i think.
-------------------- Madly I Do.
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Razzl3Frazzl3


Registered: 07/31/09
Posts: 4,630
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Re: Time: Prop 19 analysis: Will legalization increase use? [Re: blujay]
#13307626 - 10/08/10 07:56 AM (13 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
blujay said:
Quote:
SquaReSaltine said: Just look at Holland.
Quote:
guest1 said: If they "tax and regulate" this will cause many people who claimed they didn't smoke, to admit to smoking, this will give the illusion that more people smoke. As far as if more people will smoke or not, I don't know, it depends on each person. Is it worth the potential addiction? That is up to the individual, regardless of the law.
As far as price, the price on a pack of cannabis cigarettes, should be the same as a pack of tobacco cigarettes, if the cost to manufacture is the same.
That's a pretty good point. All the closet smokers will come out, making it seem like so much more.
As far as the price, even if they are pre-rolled, the pack should contain x amount of grams of cannabis for a set price. I think they should have 5, 10 and 20 joint packs. I guess it will depend on the quality of the cannabis. I think they should have varying "strength cigarettes". Then again, legal or not, i don't smoke joints. I would break them down to bowls.
Does anyone know how much tobacco is in a cigarette? How many mgs of material, i mean.
Hey you smokers, someone sacrifice one for science! I liked to know what the whole cig weighs, and what the material only weighs.
half gram a cig, fyi.
Cool, im not a smoker. So you could essentially have 2.5 g packs, 5 g packs, and 10 g packs. Kinda like Holland's limits....Then those packs could be maybe 10, 15, or 20% THC. I think you could then set a "price" per pack.
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