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OfflineStatisticons_win
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Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless.
    #12089417 - 02/24/10 04:20 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Does the Iranian government possess enough economic leverage to continue to defy the ineffably mal-adept U.N arbitrations against nuclear research?


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #12089498 - 02/24/10 04:31 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

One thing about Iran is that they are incapable of producing their own gasoline.  Shut them off and they're fucked, big time.  But there are no balls in the UN and the Chinese are feckless cunts who would veto this for their own agenda.


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OfflineStatisticons_win
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12089537 - 02/24/10 05:03 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Yeah,  refining infrastructure is being supported by China's massive appetite for oil, at least according to George Mahila's editorial for American foreign Policy. Yeah, Russia too.



Pretty interesting read if you can get past the fact it's written by Princeton students.
http://afpprinceton.com/2010/02/sanctioning-iran-how-to-stop-the-iranian-nuclear-program/

I tend to believe that an increase in observable probabilistic threats, not sanctions, is the only thing that will neutralize the Iran Nuclear Hypothesis.


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Edited by Statisticons_win (02/24/10 05:04 PM)


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #12089737 - 02/24/10 05:41 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

> I tend to believe that an increase in observable probabilistic threats, not sanctions, is the only thing that will neutralize the Iran Nuclear Hypothesis.

As far as I can tell, it is too late.  In my opinion, Iran is less than a year from an atomic bomb, though a few years (two to three) from being able to weaponize it (i.e. make it deliverable).  However, I do not believe their intent is focused on atomic weapons so much as nuclear powered navel vessels.  Contrary to what the public is led to believe, a bomb can be made from just 6% enriched uranium.  For the later (naval vessels), they need highly enriched uranium (85% or better).


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OfflineStatisticons_win
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Seuss]
    #12089826 - 02/24/10 05:55 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

I suppose when i say Iran nuclear hypothesis, I mean all the qualities of an enriched nuclear Iran.  Navy vessels are much more effective than the threat of nuclear war.  In fact, I think nuclear bombs are really irrelevant in the hands of modern nation-states. Except as a last resort, such as the case with Japan.  They may pose some problems in the hands of radicals, but eh.

A conventional military is still the only way to exert influence on regional and geo-political issues. The problem with nuclear pressure is it's not very divisible. It is total in destruction, which makes it poorly suited for conquest, empiricism and influence.

My two cents.

I was just wondering, why all the bandying about, if we really wanted to prevent them from weaponizing(nuclear powered vessels etc. etc.) nuclear energies, we should or should have stopped the bullshit long time ago and bombed some things.

Please note, this is strictly positive politics.  I make no boasts as to the proper perspective needed to execute normative politics. :shrug:


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12089878 - 02/24/10 06:04 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
One thing about Iran is that they are incapable of producing their own gasoline.  Shut them off and they're fucked, big time.





hahaha... they have a few refineries, not enough to keep up with their
demand for gas but enough to keep government services running, regardless
of their ability to produce, anyone remember how well sanctions worked
against Iraq... they didnt, lol


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Seuss]
    #12089898 - 02/24/10 06:07 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
  However, I do not believe their intent is focused on atomic weapons so much as nuclear powered navel vessels.




their intent is to do as N.Korea and show the world that Iraq was not invaded over the threat of WMDs


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #12089976 - 02/24/10 06:22 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

"Observable probalistic threat".  I like that.  I've never heard it before but I think it's self-evident what it means.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12089982 - 02/24/10 06:23 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Prisoner#1 said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
One thing about Iran is that they are incapable of producing their own gasoline.  Shut them off and they're fucked, big time.





hahaha... they have a few refineries, not enough to keep up with their
demand for gas but enough to keep government services running, regardless
of their ability to produce, anyone remember how well sanctions worked
against Iraq... they didnt, lol




Yeah, I remember that the UN was bought off, especially France and China.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12089988 - 02/24/10 06:24 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Sanctions against Iran would not weaken the government any -- they are largely  ineffective.  However, they will have large negative effects on the general public, which may be the spark that lights the powderkeg of Iranian civil unrest that has been toppling' for a while.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: memes]
    #12090002 - 02/24/10 06:27 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

meams said:
Sanctions against Iran would not weaken the government any -- they are largely  ineffective.  However, they will have large negative effects on the general public, which may be the spark that lights the powderkeg of Iranian civil unrest that has been toppling' for a while.



Which will weaken the government.  That's the point.


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12090003 - 02/24/10 06:27 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

yeah... I remember that the UN is ineffective unless the US decides to
invade a country under the blue beret... Iran currently produces 60% of
their own fuel, higher than I though it was


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12090040 - 02/24/10 06:33 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

By fuel is that gasoline?


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #12090058 - 02/24/10 06:36 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Abso-fucking-lutely pointless. The only thing left for us to sanction is gasoline, and if we do that, China and Russia won't pay it heed anyways.

It's a waste of time and effort.


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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12090890 - 02/24/10 08:35 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
By fuel is that gasoline?




yes and by 2012 the refinery that they signed a contract on in 2003 is
supposed to be online, it will be the largest refinery in the world and
Iran will no longer be importing gasoline... so sure, lets impose some
more worthless sanctions


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12091486 - 02/24/10 10:17 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Well that's 2 years away but I agree.  Half assed sanctions, and that's all there can be, are bullshit no matter what the Cuban excuse makers say.  Much firmer measures need to be implemented.


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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12092363 - 02/25/10 12:43 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Much firmer measures need to be implemented.




for what... daring to stand up to the US, I commend them, I'd like to see
them have nuclear arms as well as power... no reason why a few nations
should have it and others are disallowed


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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12092502 - 02/25/10 01:06 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Not only are the reasons blatantly pushed by Israel, but those reasons are as of now false.

Why should the USA care?  Israel is the one who cares, fuck them!  The USA has done their bidding for waaaaaaaaaaay too long.

Iran is not stupid enough to nuke Israel anyways,  they just want to create medical isotopes and power.  "The west"  just can't deal with people who resist them (mostly israel) and dissent.

So yeah,  not only pointless, but harmful.  The USA has to stop with all the overseas shenanigans,  its only deepening and reinforcing the disagreement, while simultaneously wrecking USA's image, and has made it broke.


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Shins]
    #12093468 - 02/25/10 06:58 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Iran is not stupid enough to nuke Israel anyways,  they just want to create medical isotopes and power.  "The west"  just can't deal with people who resist them (mostly israel) and dissent.




And Hitler just wanted to create a better place for people to live.  (Woot!  Score another for Godwin's Law.)

Israel has little to do with Iran's ambitions other than being a good distraction.  Iran wants to become the superpower of the middle east.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12093561 - 02/25/10 08:22 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Prisoner#1 said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Much firmer measures need to be implemented.




for what... daring to stand up to the US, I commend them, I'd like to see
them have nuclear arms as well as power... no reason why a few nations
should have it and others are disallowed



Stand up to the US?  We owe them a severe asskickinng for their invasion of 1979.

Do you think a mentally deranged person who has made repeated threats against others, assaulted others and generally made schizophrenic rants for decades should be allowed to possess a bazooka?


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OfflineStatisticons_win
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12093608 - 02/25/10 08:59 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Prisoner#1 said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Much firmer measures need to be implemented.




for what... daring to stand up to the US, I commend them, I'd like to see
them have nuclear arms as well as power... no reason why a few nations
should have it and others are disallowed




they can have the nuke power. They were gonna be given rods that could be used in power capacities, but not easily converted to research capacities, or weapons capacities.


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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #12093841 - 02/25/10 10:33 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

While I don't believe it is the only reason they rejected the deal, it was not acceptable because the Tehran research reactor is about run dry and they still need product for their hospitals.  I think the timeframe for the swap was a year or more, which wouldn't meet their needs. If they could find a way of shortening the timeframe, Iran would have absolutely nothing to complain about.


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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Seuss]
    #12094924 - 02/25/10 02:04 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

As far as I can tell, it is too late.  In my opinion, Iran is less than a year from an atomic bomb, though a few years (two to three) from being able to weaponize it (i.e. make it deliverable).  However, I do not believe their intent is focused on atomic weapons so much as nuclear powered navel vessels.  Contrary to what the public is led to believe, a bomb can be made from just 6% enriched uranium.  For the later (naval vessels), they need highly enriched uranium (85% or better).




You cannot make a uranium weapon with 6% enriched uranium-235.  It must be up around 90% U-235 or else the fission reaction will never happen.  If you have low enriched uranium, you need to enrich it by some means before using it for bomb making.  It's expensive and difficult to get the enrichment up to 90%.  You can, however, make a plutonium-239 bomb.  Pu-239 is one of the waste products of the nuclear fuel cycle of light water reactors; however, the waste must be processed to removed some of the other shit, like americium.  Furthermore, the waste must have a low burnup so that there isn't much Pu-240, which if you included in the bomb, would likely detonate when you were building it.  Most commercial power reactors excrete high-burnup fuel and so their wast wouldn't be useful for bomb-building.  However, reactors that utilize online refueling can have the fuel taken out early when much of the uranium has converted to Pu-239, but not captured the extra neutron to turn to Pu-240.  Fast breeder reactors can also be used to convert natural uranium to weapons grade plutonium.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapons-grade

As for your other assertion, nuclear vessels do not need such highly enriched uranium.  It just depends how how small you want the reactor.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf34.html

In summary, I think Iran's nuclear interests reside in both bomb-making and commercial power reactors.


--------------------
No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based
upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge
which is itself based upon the mathematical
sciences.
  -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519)

Speak well of your enemies.  After all, you made them.


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12098674 - 02/25/10 11:33 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Stand up to the US?  We owe them a severe asskickinng for their invasion of 1979.




OMFG... they invaded 1979?

"You have no right to complain, because you took our whole country hostage in 1953.” -Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini

Quote:

Do you think a mentally deranged person who has made repeated threats against others, assaulted others and generally made schizophrenic rants for decades should be allowed to possess a bazooka?




you're saying America should be disarmed or are you again comparing Apples to tennis shoes


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Offlinedeadmeat986
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12098950 - 02/26/10 12:17 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

i like to point out Ach-monkey-face would not pass a background check for hand gun. So it's ok for him to have a nuke?
Iran needs the SAM launchers Russia was going to sell them. why Obama took down the eastern missile shield.Buy off Russians from selling the sams. When iran get's those sams that's when we ll know their close to a nuke.
  And as far as power; iran does not even have the infrastructure to effectively use a nuke plant? be cheaper for them to build coal and dams than nuke. As far research and med uses, they could sell oil to Russia for med plutonium or to us even.

Obama moved large forces to the middle east we are getting ready to go in. you think Obama would let monkey face make a fool of him on the world stage? Sorry, obama will preemptive strike iran to save his political Ass faster then you can say "bush did it!"


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: deadmeat986]
    #12099161 - 02/26/10 12:50 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

deadmeat986 said:
i like to point out Ach-monkey-face would not pass a background check for hand gun.




what are the requirements to get a hand gun in Iran...

is this oranges and orangutans?


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12100597 - 02/26/10 10:41 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Prisoner#1 said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Stand up to the US?  We owe them a severe asskickinng for their invasion of 1979.




OMFG... they invaded 1979?




Yes, they did.  Where were you?
Quote:



"You have no right to complain, because you took our whole country hostage in 1953.” -Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini



Ah yes, the fallacy of the omnipotent CIA.  Perhaps it would have been better as a Soviet puppet state.  The Soviets were very accomodating of religious whack jobs.
Quote:



Quote:

Do you think a mentally deranged person who has made repeated threats against others, assaulted others and generally made schizophrenic rants for decades should be allowed to possess a bazooka?




you're saying America should be disarmed or are you again comparing Apples to tennis shoes




No. I'm saying the Iranians are ruled by raving lunatics.  You want to argue against that?

Other pronouncements of the Ayatollah Khomeini:

"A man can have sex with sheep, cows and camels and so on. However, he should kill the animal after he has his orgasm. He should not sell the meat to the people in his own village; however, selling the meat to the next door village should be fine."

"If one commits the act of sodomy with a cow, a ewe, or a camel, their urine and their excrement become impure, and even their milk may no longer be consumed. The animal must then be killed and as quickly as possible and burned."

"A man can marry a girl younger than nine years of age, even if the girl is still a baby being breastfed. A man, however is prohibited from having intercourse with a girl younger than nine, other sexual acts such as foreplay, rubbing, kissing and sodomy is allowed. A man having intercourse with a girl younger than nine years of age has not committed a crime, but only an infraction, if the girl is not permanently damaged. If the girl, however, is permanently damaged, the man must provide for her all her life. But this girl will not count as one of the man's four permanent wives. He also is not permitted to marry the girl's sister."

Like I said, fucking nutcases.  And you want to give them nukes.  Any argument of equivalency with the United States is beyond idiotic.


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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12105319 - 02/27/10 12:28 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
I'm saying the Iranians are ruled by raving lunatics.  You want to argue against that?




I'm saying that the US is in the same boat, it's another argument with a close parallel


how exactly does a nation invade a year


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12106555 - 02/27/10 10:20 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

That's an acceptable sentence structure for something that happened that year.  "War of 1812".  Heard of it?


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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #12121345 - 03/01/10 05:45 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Statisticons_win said:

A conventional military is still the only way to exert influence on regional and geo-political issues.




Only a Sith speaks in absolutes


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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12123028 - 03/01/10 09:37 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
That's an acceptable sentence structure for something that happened that year.  "War of 1812".  Heard of it?





Iran invaded 1812 too?

bomb those bastards back to the stone age

last week in purrrrrsia




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