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OfflineStatisticons_win
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Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless.
    #12089417 - 02/24/10 04:20 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Does the Iranian government possess enough economic leverage to continue to defy the ineffably mal-adept U.N arbitrations against nuclear research?


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #12089498 - 02/24/10 04:31 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

One thing about Iran is that they are incapable of producing their own gasoline.  Shut them off and they're fucked, big time.  But there are no balls in the UN and the Chinese are feckless cunts who would veto this for their own agenda.


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OfflineStatisticons_win
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12089537 - 02/24/10 05:03 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Yeah,  refining infrastructure is being supported by China's massive appetite for oil, at least according to George Mahila's editorial for American foreign Policy. Yeah, Russia too.



Pretty interesting read if you can get past the fact it's written by Princeton students.
http://afpprinceton.com/2010/02/sanctioning-iran-how-to-stop-the-iranian-nuclear-program/

I tend to believe that an increase in observable probabilistic threats, not sanctions, is the only thing that will neutralize the Iran Nuclear Hypothesis.


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Edited by Statisticons_win (02/24/10 05:04 PM)


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #12089737 - 02/24/10 05:41 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

> I tend to believe that an increase in observable probabilistic threats, not sanctions, is the only thing that will neutralize the Iran Nuclear Hypothesis.

As far as I can tell, it is too late.  In my opinion, Iran is less than a year from an atomic bomb, though a few years (two to three) from being able to weaponize it (i.e. make it deliverable).  However, I do not believe their intent is focused on atomic weapons so much as nuclear powered navel vessels.  Contrary to what the public is led to believe, a bomb can be made from just 6% enriched uranium.  For the later (naval vessels), they need highly enriched uranium (85% or better).


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OfflineStatisticons_win
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Seuss]
    #12089826 - 02/24/10 05:55 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

I suppose when i say Iran nuclear hypothesis, I mean all the qualities of an enriched nuclear Iran.  Navy vessels are much more effective than the threat of nuclear war.  In fact, I think nuclear bombs are really irrelevant in the hands of modern nation-states. Except as a last resort, such as the case with Japan.  They may pose some problems in the hands of radicals, but eh.

A conventional military is still the only way to exert influence on regional and geo-political issues. The problem with nuclear pressure is it's not very divisible. It is total in destruction, which makes it poorly suited for conquest, empiricism and influence.

My two cents.

I was just wondering, why all the bandying about, if we really wanted to prevent them from weaponizing(nuclear powered vessels etc. etc.) nuclear energies, we should or should have stopped the bullshit long time ago and bombed some things.

Please note, this is strictly positive politics.  I make no boasts as to the proper perspective needed to execute normative politics. :shrug:


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12089878 - 02/24/10 06:04 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
One thing about Iran is that they are incapable of producing their own gasoline.  Shut them off and they're fucked, big time.





hahaha... they have a few refineries, not enough to keep up with their
demand for gas but enough to keep government services running, regardless
of their ability to produce, anyone remember how well sanctions worked
against Iraq... they didnt, lol


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Seuss]
    #12089898 - 02/24/10 06:07 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
  However, I do not believe their intent is focused on atomic weapons so much as nuclear powered navel vessels.




their intent is to do as N.Korea and show the world that Iraq was not invaded over the threat of WMDs


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #12089976 - 02/24/10 06:22 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

"Observable probalistic threat".  I like that.  I've never heard it before but I think it's self-evident what it means.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12089982 - 02/24/10 06:23 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Prisoner#1 said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
One thing about Iran is that they are incapable of producing their own gasoline.  Shut them off and they're fucked, big time.





hahaha... they have a few refineries, not enough to keep up with their
demand for gas but enough to keep government services running, regardless
of their ability to produce, anyone remember how well sanctions worked
against Iraq... they didnt, lol




Yeah, I remember that the UN was bought off, especially France and China.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12089988 - 02/24/10 06:24 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Sanctions against Iran would not weaken the government any -- they are largely  ineffective.  However, they will have large negative effects on the general public, which may be the spark that lights the powderkeg of Iranian civil unrest that has been toppling' for a while.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: memes]
    #12090002 - 02/24/10 06:27 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

meams said:
Sanctions against Iran would not weaken the government any -- they are largely  ineffective.  However, they will have large negative effects on the general public, which may be the spark that lights the powderkeg of Iranian civil unrest that has been toppling' for a while.



Which will weaken the government.  That's the point.


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12090003 - 02/24/10 06:27 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

yeah... I remember that the UN is ineffective unless the US decides to
invade a country under the blue beret... Iran currently produces 60% of
their own fuel, higher than I though it was


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12090040 - 02/24/10 06:33 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

By fuel is that gasoline?


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #12090058 - 02/24/10 06:36 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Abso-fucking-lutely pointless. The only thing left for us to sanction is gasoline, and if we do that, China and Russia won't pay it heed anyways.

It's a waste of time and effort.


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12090890 - 02/24/10 08:35 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
By fuel is that gasoline?




yes and by 2012 the refinery that they signed a contract on in 2003 is
supposed to be online, it will be the largest refinery in the world and
Iran will no longer be importing gasoline... so sure, lets impose some
more worthless sanctions


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12091486 - 02/24/10 10:17 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Well that's 2 years away but I agree.  Half assed sanctions, and that's all there can be, are bullshit no matter what the Cuban excuse makers say.  Much firmer measures need to be implemented.


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #12092363 - 02/25/10 12:43 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Much firmer measures need to be implemented.




for what... daring to stand up to the US, I commend them, I'd like to see
them have nuclear arms as well as power... no reason why a few nations
should have it and others are disallowed


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InvisibleShins
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12092502 - 02/25/10 01:06 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Not only are the reasons blatantly pushed by Israel, but those reasons are as of now false.

Why should the USA care?  Israel is the one who cares, fuck them!  The USA has done their bidding for waaaaaaaaaaay too long.

Iran is not stupid enough to nuke Israel anyways,  they just want to create medical isotopes and power.  "The west"  just can't deal with people who resist them (mostly israel) and dissent.

So yeah,  not only pointless, but harmful.  The USA has to stop with all the overseas shenanigans,  its only deepening and reinforcing the disagreement, while simultaneously wrecking USA's image, and has made it broke.


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Shins]
    #12093468 - 02/25/10 06:58 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Iran is not stupid enough to nuke Israel anyways,  they just want to create medical isotopes and power.  "The west"  just can't deal with people who resist them (mostly israel) and dissent.




And Hitler just wanted to create a better place for people to live.  (Woot!  Score another for Godwin's Law.)

Israel has little to do with Iran's ambitions other than being a good distraction.  Iran wants to become the superpower of the middle east.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Sanctions against Iran? Effective or Pointless. [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #12093561 - 02/25/10 08:22 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Prisoner#1 said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Much firmer measures need to be implemented.




for what... daring to stand up to the US, I commend them, I'd like to see
them have nuclear arms as well as power... no reason why a few nations
should have it and others are disallowed



Stand up to the US?  We owe them a severe asskickinng for their invasion of 1979.

Do you think a mentally deranged person who has made repeated threats against others, assaulted others and generally made schizophrenic rants for decades should be allowed to possess a bazooka?


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