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OfflineStatisticons_win
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I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class.
    #11300126 - 10/22/09 04:43 PM (8 years, 30 days ago)

My professor said she sees no real danger or harm in having a import/export deficit.  I can't rest so assured.  It seems to me that since we import far more than we export it provides others with quite ready access to or currency which in turn is used to purchase real capital on American soils, thus providing even more ready fiduciary access to foreign investors.  Namely China. 

It also may be that I am by nature somewhat of an alarmist, but be that as it may, China is a worry o'mine. Ever since reading this book: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/images/1595550054/ref=dp_image_0?ie=UTF8&n=283155&s=books, I have been worried albeit non so grandly that our delightful empire may crumble under the arm of the Heavenly Empire.  perhaps not now, nor soon.  But eventually, and with our last few administrators propensity to grant most favored trade nation status to these wily and hardened people, I fear we are doomed if we continue down this road.

It should also be considered that my fear isn't just China in general. It seems an unhealthy economic plan to allow too much real capital fall into the hands of foreigners.  Isn't it tantamount to selling your inheritance for a bowl of soup now?

i am seeking feedback, any thoughts, ideas etc.etc..

This isn't about China, its about capital investment.

puhyeace.

-stats-


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OfflineMr.Al
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #11317055 - 10/25/09 09:59 AM (8 years, 27 days ago)

I recommend material from: Frederic Bastiat, Henry Hazlitt, Ludwig Von Mises, Murray N. Rothbard, and Friedrich Hayek.

For entire books in pdf.form and various articles on Economics.

http://mises.org/


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InvisibleArmFromTheAbyss
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #11317095 - 10/25/09 10:14 AM (8 years, 27 days ago)

I'm not sure what you're concerned about. Are you worried about industrial production moving to foreign countries?


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OfflineMr.Al
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: ArmFromTheAbyss]
    #11317138 - 10/25/09 10:33 AM (8 years, 27 days ago)

Perhaps concerned that increased production is the basis of a sound economy?  Having a severe trade deficit is indicative of inefficient production.  (Say, expensive union labor for American auto-companies that just received government welfare.)


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: Mr.Al]
    #11322259 - 10/26/09 02:41 AM (8 years, 27 days ago)

Currency devaluation (like china is doing) was common before WW1/2. You can find some historical economic writings from the times that will detail the use of these mechanisms in developed nations. However, if you want to find a contemporary modern example of nations who've been plunged into international bankruptcy by excessive borrowing you could look into modern semi-developed nations like Argentina or Jamaica who have been pushed into free trade scenarios that created trade deficits and government revenue defficits.

Also of interest would be the system that was proposed by John Maynard Keynes after WW2 in the Havana convention. It lost steam before being pitched at Breton Woods because of Keynes's death and was rejected in the US(effectively a veto). It really is an interesting thing to do a report on for economics. I did it for a world history class once but I think that the students in my class had a hard time making sense of it because they didn't really understand what things like trade deficits and GDPs were. I had to fall back on a lay person's explanation which if you read about the system is difficult to make.

What kind of economics class are you taking and what are the future lessons? This would be fundamental to pointing you to some good reading material for ammo, if that's what you are looking for.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club


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OfflineStatisticons_win
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: ScavengerType]
    #11391992 - 11/05/09 06:11 PM (8 years, 16 days ago)

The idea is to explore the relationships between trade deficits and their impacts on labor asset depreciation, the depreciation of production assets.

This just to get started.


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: Statisticons_win]
    #11394944 - 11/06/09 01:11 AM (8 years, 16 days ago)

When trade deficits are high this means the debtor nation has more buying power in the deficit economy and can buy capital equipment at a cheaper price. This is easily observed with the case of china. This leads to outsourcing with cases like China and to a lesser extent India where the labor pool is large enough to absorb the jobs without increasing wages too much.

Your prof will likely cover this dynamic as a dollar value fluctuation. When nations run trade deficits it means they are putting more of their dollars out into the international market than in. Their dollar becomes less valuable for basic supply/demand reasons. China merely buys US debt to keep the USD from suffering this fate, even though they could benefit from such a devaluation by purchasing assets liquidated under a poor dollar. However they also now have a rather political economic concept called leverage which may be more valuable and unless the US can pay off the debt, they will have it indefinitely.

As we all know an example nation now striped of the capital equipment has to buy new capital equipment to resume production and, in cases of outsourcing, entire sectors may no-longer be viable economic routes. So, such a nation is left in a situation where they will need heavy amounts of investment (likely foreign since the dollar will be fairly shit) and new capital equipment expensive as well as new sectors of industry may need heavy amounts of new training or skilled professionals who will need to be brought in from overseas, all at quite heavy expenses.

Throughout this process of devaluation the value of real wages will drop like an asteroid and this will be the thing that makes foreign investment appealing in it's initial stage, particularly if the labor force may have a knowledge advantage over other undervalued economies (like India). This will maintain investment levels even as wages rise from re-investment cycles.

The deficit economy will have great problems and be hard pressed to recover fully and will never be able to get back to where it could have been had it forgone deficit activity by embracing some protective mechanisms to prevent such an occurrence.

With the US the dollar is particularly alarming as it's government is hostile toward regulation. The sheer amount of it's presence in foreign holdings makes it's devaluation a precarious and volatile situation and the sheer size of it's annual trade deficit makes the need for some sort of reversal of the situation rapidly more dire as time progresses.

Further, the fact that the US is balancing it's trade deficit by selling debt is... well it's quite clearly insane. It's completely foolish that the US is so blind to this as they have done this to many developing countries over the years. See a documentary called Life and Debt for a nice example of the dynamic in action. Jamaica is still mired in the civil violence that eventually resulted (in 2001 if I recall) from it's chronic deficit problems last I heard (2006). What further baffles me is the US's refusal to try to reshape it's economy so that it can meet these debt obligations. I mean WTF?


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club


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OfflineMr.Al
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: ScavengerType]
    #11395728 - 11/06/09 05:13 AM (8 years, 15 days ago)

Perhaps it would be fruitful for you to examine the conditions that led to the ability for the federal government to amass such large amounts of debt?!?


More regulation is merely an attempt to prop up the present economic system further.  This results in forestalling the crash surely, but the eventual crash becomes that much nastier...


America was designed with a system of checks and balances.  If we ignore that most of the economic checks have been taken out of the system, it is no wonder that we are puzzled as to why it is out of balance to such a degree....


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: Mr.Al]
    #11395776 - 11/06/09 05:49 AM (8 years, 15 days ago)

not all of that debt is government debt and much of it is only channeled through the central bank as an intermediary to private banks. Much of it has to do with consumption of foreign goods, which is not as consistent with government spending as it is with private.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club


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InvisibleRationalEgo
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: Mr.Al]
    #11401907 - 11/07/09 02:13 AM (8 years, 15 days ago)

Quote:

Mr.Al said:
I recommend material from: Frederic Bastiat, Henry Hazlitt, Ludwig Von Mises, Murray N. Rothbard, and Friedrich Hayek.

For entire books in pdf.form and various articles on Economics.

http://mises.org/




Seconded. I would however start with Mises as he is the king of the hill.


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OfflineMr.Al
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: ScavengerType]
    #11409950 - 11/08/09 10:25 AM (8 years, 13 days ago)

But what exactly allows for the massive accumulation of debt?

Is it not government monopoly money?

Prosperity is the result of increased production and sound money anything less is public "legalized" robbery.

If the people are prosperous, does it not follow that they will be able to produce more if the fruits of their labor are not stolen by inflating the money supply?!?

You do not have an honest argument to refute this.


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: Mr.Al]
    #11411393 - 11/08/09 03:52 PM (8 years, 13 days ago)

Quote:

Prosperity is the result of increased production and sound money anything less is public "legalized" robbery.




We are not disagreeing about this, but perhaps if you consider the effects of the trade deficient and outsourcing on the economy you would find that this meets the criteria more than inflation. In fact even inflation is only relative to low economic growth, if the economy was growing more the inflation would not be in any way problematic. As well, if the trade deficit was eliminated the fed would not be borrowing for lending.

However, it's the OP's choice to take what stance he wants to present to his class and which he thinks will have him taken seriously.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club


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OfflineMr.Al
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: ScavengerType]
    #11417157 - 11/09/09 09:32 AM (8 years, 12 days ago)

Quote:

ScavengerType said:
Quote:

P In fact even inflation is only relative to low economic growth, if the economy was growing more the inflation would not be in any way problematic.

This is exactly where you are wrong.
Inflation is not "low" the M2 was increased by AT LEAST 800 billion.  We will see a tremendous increase in M1.  One possible ugly scenario would be a bailout of commercial mortgages.

The creation of new money is what causes the redistribution of wealthy away from average people to the corporations that are in bed with government.  This is what destroys the purchasing power because wages can not keep pace with the inflation.  We certainly are not seeing wage increases anytime soon but we are going to see a disturbing increase in M1 in the not very distant future (Perhaps a few years...)


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: Mr.Al]
    #11418971 - 11/09/09 03:24 PM (8 years, 12 days ago)

uhh no, the US had a decrease in it's creditary money supply and increased the raw money supply to compensate, you will not see and have not seen dramatic inflation until after the credit markets re-open and it is possible this won't happen.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club


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OfflineMr.Al
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: ScavengerType]
    #11424531 - 11/10/09 09:30 AM (8 years, 11 days ago)

Look.


M2 was increased by at least 800 Billion.


China is holding around 2 Trillion in debt instruments.

China Russia & their good buddies are trying to put together a currency basket to replace the dollar as the world reserve fiat currency.

Federal government spending is out of control....

Where is the money for all that government spending going to come from?

What the fuck happens when other countries don't want to buy U.S. debt?

What happens if they start dumping the dollar?


Dude, all signs point to inflation of the money supply.

I do not see inflation as being a benefit to the American people, especially when things are as fucked as they are now.



Once again you fail to have a rational argument for increasing the money supply, which confers no real social benefit whatsoever and is what we have seen on a massive scale since 1913.

There is no social benefit for an increase in the money supply and you can not argue against that because a rational argument for increasing the money supply for the public benefit DOES NOT EXIST (for an economy that still experiences scarcity).


Edited by Mr.Al (11/10/09 09:34 AM)


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: Mr.Al]
    #11426807 - 11/10/09 04:36 PM (8 years, 11 days ago)

I don't dissagree, US gov spending is out of control, particularly military spending.  Also the government deficit, general debt and the fate of the dollar are also substantial issues which can lead to some real problems for the US in the future.

Inflation is a symptom of massive US consumer (and to a lesser extent government) deficits not the disease and as I have said significant inflation has yet to occur for the USD and the reason for this is because inflation is being guarded against by china balancing the trade deficit by buying US debt and dollars.

Also not all "inflation" is bad, don't believe me?
Quote:

In theoretical investigation there is only one meaning that can rationally be
attached to the expression Inflation: an increase in the quantity of money
(in the broader sense of the term, so as to include fiduciary media as
well), that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the need for money (again
in the broader sense of the term), so that a fall in the objective
exchange-value of money must occur. Again, Deflation (or
Restriction, or Contraction) signifies: a diminution of the quantity of
money (in the broader sense) which is not offset by a corresponding
diminution of the demand for money (in the broader sense), so that an
increase in the objective exchange-value of money must occur.



Mises (1912, [1981], p. 272)

What this fellow says is that if a constriction in credit that was once part of the money supply results in a decrease in money supply and the bank who is responsible for such a note creates more through some mechanism to fill the void and the net balance of demand is constant in the end. It is not really as he defines it inflation.
What will cause real inflation from this transaction is later if/when such a creditary market is re-established and this can be easily controlled by raising interest rates to draw the balance from this credit market and diminish it's expansion in the money supply.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club


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OfflineMr.Al
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: ScavengerType]
    #11446399 - 11/13/09 09:23 AM (8 years, 8 days ago)

Issues with interest rate adjustments are not much of a problem in a free market economy.

Can you see how much trouble a central bank can cause just in terms of interest rate manipulation?

Sure if the medium of exchange is actually increasing in value institutions are not as happy to be holding debt.


When you look at credit as being debt your economic picture changes...


If you look at the federal reserve note, with it's status of legal tender, you can see how the government is able to amass large sums of debt.

If the federal reserve notes did not have a monopoly status as legal tender monetary competition would prevent government from reckless money creation.



I see the medium of exchange as that which helps create economic efficiency (through profit driven behavior).  I see inflation of the money supply as decreasing the efficiency of the medium of exchange.  I don't see monetary expansion as having a social benefit because, as in counterfeiting, the people receiving the money last (most American people) are being robbed of the fruits of their labor.


What exactly do you see wrong with my logic?


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: Mr.Al]
    #11448237 - 11/13/09 04:29 PM (8 years, 8 days ago)

For one thing, I've never seen any proof that in a free market of banks there would be less or more interest manipulation, corruption or other dubious things you accuse only the fed of being capable of. It's pretty clear that many banks are capable of acting irresponsibly on their own. Yet the claim that the free market will solve these problems is still made without any proof. I've heard these empty promises from economists of the neo-liberal creed before (with nothing or worse 20 years later), is the free market just waiting till it gets around to it?

Further, let me explain what an unstable banking sector without collusion of banks into a federal organization would do. Take your gold for example, many people are trying to trade dollars for gold because they see that gold is holding it's value faster, but this is obviously a temporary situation, you would probibly be pretty foolish to buy gold right now and eventually it will reach a peek price where people will begin to offload the commodity in exchange for something else, the price of gold will eventually drop drastically as many speculators will likely not be able to use it for anything and they will get out of the market even at a small loss. Now if perhaps instead of gold this had been a currency in one of your imaginary banks then after a rise in value it would have to print more, otherwise it would have a runaway increase in value which could lead to problems for it's borrowers and the banks other operations as well. Then when people begin to speculate on the value of another currency or material they begin to trade the one that they inflated in for the new unit and as the value falls people leave. If the bank bought a bunch of liquid assets that it properly speculated would go up it can buy it's liquidity back, but I've never seen a single financial expert/analyst with this kind of insight. On the other hand the more likely scenario is that the bank sees the speculation as growth (from which it is near indistinguishable) and increases it's profitable creditary and investment mechanisms with the currency it must inflate. Then when when the value of that bank's dollar falls they will not be able to buy their currency back (if they diversified they can buy some) and their dollar will begin to be ditched not just by the speculators but by it's consumers.

This kind of cycle occurs all the time in modern currency trading except national currencies (not all) are strong enough to mitigate the fluctuations in values and make speculation a less profitable endeavor.

It is funny that you would cite that prosperity only comes from real work in the same post that you advocate a system that would be so enveloped in speculation at the cost of not giving the common working person or buisness person a stable way to value their money.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club


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OfflineMr.Al
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Re: I am beginning to hunt around for topics for my economics class. [Re: ScavengerType]
    #11452507 - 11/14/09 10:13 AM (8 years, 7 days ago)


Hey, we don't presently have a "free market" so stop blaming a non-existent free market on problems that central economic planning causes.


Speculation, in and of itself, is not a bad thing!!!





Speculation helps the market find the "right" prices.

It is when speculation becomes more profitable than production that we have rampant speculation.

Looking at the housing bubble we see artificially low interest rates and a national push to put people in houses w/ no money down (that always increases foreclosures) utilizing bogus legislation (C.R.A.)



If we have monetary competition of course we will see the development of more stable mediums of exchange.

I've asked several people here the next question and I have yet to receive a straight answer...


If monopolies do not benefit the people, how would a monopoly on legal tender be a good thing








Again, you seem terrified of "deflation"...


I define inflation/deflation in terms of the money supply...




Even if we are talking about the medium of exchange gaining purchasing power we have seen an over 80% correlation with prosperous economies even in terms of what you call "deflation".






OH FUCK WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF MONEY INCREASED IN BUYING POWER?  IT WOULD FOR CERTAIN BE A "DISASTER"?!?


Edited by Mr.Al (11/14/09 10:15 AM)


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