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Invisiblemozhual
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Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years
    #11217488 - 10/09/09 10:08 PM (8 years, 15 days ago)

http://www.livescience.com/technology/091009-computer-speed.html

Quote:

WASHINGTON (ISNS) -- With the speed of computers so regularly seeing dramatic increases in their processing speed, it seems that it shouldn't be too long before the machines become infinitely fast -- except they can't. A pair of physicists has shown that computers have a speed limit as unbreakable as the speed of light. If processors continue to accelerate as they have in the past, we'll hit the wall of faster processing in less than a century.




It goes on to predict(Scott Aaronson, an assistant professor at MIT)  Moore's Law won't last more then 20 years. I guess it's better then 10.


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"Nature is like a sculptor constantly improving upon her work, but to do so she chisels away at living flesh." H.K. Bloom

"Is God willing to prevent evil but not able? Then he is not omnipotent...
Is he able but not willing? Then he is malevolent...
Is he both able, and willing? Then whence cometh evil?
Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him god." Epicurus c. 300 BCE

"When I brought up the fact that 'No drug is good or bad, they're all just A drug, what someone does with them determines the postive or negative outcome. Look at medicine, those are drugs' Reponse was that 'well medicine solves problems' well so does LSD." -Learningtofly


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InvisibleDoc_T
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: mozhual]
    #11217509 - 10/09/09 10:13 PM (8 years, 15 days ago)

It's worse than that.
To make computers (all chips, really) faster, you make them smaller. The chip is smaller, the features are smaller including conductors.
The conductors shrink so small they are narrower than the wavelengths of the electrons.
The electrons go bouncing out of the conductors due to quantum effects and the chip won't work...

But neither scenario address how computers will be getting faster in the future anyway: scaleable gangs of small processors. We didn't breed super-giant horses, we hitched them in teams of four. Same with pistons in an engine, or a thousand other examples. Bigger is better to a point, then more is better.


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You make it all possible. Doesn't it feel good?


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: mozhual]
    #11217519 - 10/09/09 10:16 PM (8 years, 15 days ago)

Good reason to be grateful that we live in such a golden age.  Our wealth and plenty is very much tied to computer innovation - innovation of such scale will not be there for the future generations.


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InvisibleDoc_T
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: DieCommie]
    #11217686 - 10/09/09 10:58 PM (8 years, 15 days ago)

Quote:

DieCommie said:
Good reason to be grateful that we live in such a golden age.  Our wealth and plenty is very much tied to computer innovation - innovation of such scale will not be there for the future generations.




Yes/no- very much tied to information processing.
It really started with the printing press, and the computer is just one latter phase. I don't know where it's going, but it won't stop, that's just not how humans do things.


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You make it all possible. Doesn't it feel good?


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: Doc_T]
    #11217690 - 10/09/09 11:00 PM (8 years, 15 days ago)

It will stop.  There are fundamental limits in the universe, exponential growth(or even continual linear growth) is a myth - or at best, a local approximation.


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InvisibleChespirito
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: mozhual]
    #11218675 - 10/10/09 02:26 AM (8 years, 15 days ago)

Seems very false and I assume relies on a lot of assumptions about the technology we will be using in the future.  Ill respond when not drunk on the company dime


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Invisibleslackophage
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: Chespirito]
    #11218731 - 10/10/09 02:48 AM (8 years, 15 days ago)

No big deal. Moore's Law doesn't relate to CPU speed anyways, it states the number of transistsor possible in a single IC package (A CPU, in this case) will double every 18 months.

You just add more CPUs and engineer the software for heavy multithreading, like the big-ass servers are already doing.


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: slackophage]
    #11218848 - 10/10/09 03:21 AM (8 years, 15 days ago)

even if thats true..if moores' law continues to accelerate in the mean time..it would still translate into a 250 explosion in computing power during that time frame.. which will find its way into the wrong hands even faster...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...


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Invisibleslackophage
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: Annapurna1]
    #11218960 - 10/10/09 04:07 AM (8 years, 15 days ago)

Quote:

Annapurna1 said:
which will find its way into the wrong hands even faster...




Wha? You mean like the "bad guys"??


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OfflineRoker
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: slackophage]
    #11219234 - 10/10/09 07:16 AM (8 years, 14 days ago)

yes, al quaeda are always looking for faster frame rates in quake


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: slackophage]
    #11219480 - 10/10/09 09:02 AM (8 years, 14 days ago)

Quote:

slackophage said:
Quote:

Annapurna1 said:
which will find its way into the wrong hands even faster...




Wha? You mean like the "bad guys"??




No. Like... drunk posters on message boards.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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Invisiblemozhual
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: slackophage]
    #11219651 - 10/10/09 10:03 AM (8 years, 14 days ago)

Even with that, eventually in order to get faster speeds you will hit a brick wall of convenience really fast, at least as far as the populous is concerned.


--------------------
"Nature is like a sculptor constantly improving upon her work, but to do so she chisels away at living flesh." H.K. Bloom

"Is God willing to prevent evil but not able? Then he is not omnipotent...
Is he able but not willing? Then he is malevolent...
Is he both able, and willing? Then whence cometh evil?
Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him god." Epicurus c. 300 BCE

"When I brought up the fact that 'No drug is good or bad, they're all just A drug, what someone does with them determines the postive or negative outcome. Look at medicine, those are drugs' Reponse was that 'well medicine solves problems' well so does LSD." -Learningtofly


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OfflineAdamist
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: mozhual]
    #11219668 - 10/10/09 10:11 AM (8 years, 14 days ago)

While integrated circuits will--like all paradigms--ultimately reach the limits of their possible capabilities, the exponentially growing performance trend will likely continue via a paradigm shift to a newer technology like memristors or three-dimensional molecular computing.


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:heartpump: { { { ṧ◎ηḯ¢ αʟ¢ℌ℮мƴ } } } :heartpump:


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InvisibleDoc_T
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: mozhual]
    #11219672 - 10/10/09 10:12 AM (8 years, 14 days ago)

Nope. We'll use distributed grid processing. You'll tap into all the processing power you need.

Humans collect and store and handle info- it's what makes us special.
Even if computers have some physical limitation, we are not limited by that, any more than we were limited by the physical properties of books.

There's nothing to see here, move along.


--------------------
You make it all possible. Doesn't it feel good?


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Invisiblemozhual
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: Doc_T]
    #11219697 - 10/10/09 10:23 AM (8 years, 14 days ago)

While I admit that I did not take that into consideration, this still has physical and convenience limits (just further away). Also money...


--------------------
"Nature is like a sculptor constantly improving upon her work, but to do so she chisels away at living flesh." H.K. Bloom

"Is God willing to prevent evil but not able? Then he is not omnipotent...
Is he able but not willing? Then he is malevolent...
Is he both able, and willing? Then whence cometh evil?
Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him god." Epicurus c. 300 BCE

"When I brought up the fact that 'No drug is good or bad, they're all just A drug, what someone does with them determines the postive or negative outcome. Look at medicine, those are drugs' Reponse was that 'well medicine solves problems' well so does LSD." -Learningtofly


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InvisibleDoc_T
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: mozhual]
    #11219926 - 10/10/09 11:46 AM (8 years, 14 days ago)

Money is a non-issue. Information gets cheaper every year, has been for centuries.

As far as convenience, I've always figured we are going to end up with brain-to-network connectivity. You'll have a thing like a Bluetooth headset that gives you all the information resources of the entire Internet.
Maybe within our lifetimes.

Again, this is what humans do- even more than thumbs, we are special because of the way we store information outside of ourselves.
We aren't going to stop doing it because of some technical limitation, we'll find new ways to go about it.
Thinking up new ways to think about things is one of humanity's most popular pastimes. After fucking, I mean.


--------------------
You make it all possible. Doesn't it feel good?


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Invisiblemozhual
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: Doc_T]
    #11220001 - 10/10/09 12:01 PM (8 years, 14 days ago)

Ah I see what you are saying now. Still... not sure if i completely agree that we won't run out of ways :tongue:


--------------------
"Nature is like a sculptor constantly improving upon her work, but to do so she chisels away at living flesh." H.K. Bloom

"Is God willing to prevent evil but not able? Then he is not omnipotent...
Is he able but not willing? Then he is malevolent...
Is he both able, and willing? Then whence cometh evil?
Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him god." Epicurus c. 300 BCE

"When I brought up the fact that 'No drug is good or bad, they're all just A drug, what someone does with them determines the postive or negative outcome. Look at medicine, those are drugs' Reponse was that 'well medicine solves problems' well so does LSD." -Learningtofly


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InvisibleDoc_T
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: mozhual]
    #11220044 - 10/10/09 12:12 PM (8 years, 14 days ago)

Well, we haven't yet. :wink:


--------------------
You make it all possible. Doesn't it feel good?


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Offlinesupra
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: mozhual]
    #11220573 - 10/10/09 02:23 PM (8 years, 14 days ago)

Quote:

mozhual said:
Ah I see what you are saying now. Still... not sure if i completely agree that we won't run out of ways :tongue:




There is no telling what the future holds.  As far as history has shown us, we have yet to have this happen, so all signs point to it not happening in the future as well.  I also think some paradigm shifts will be made, as they always are, when needed.  Its amazing what us humans can do when we HAVE to do it.

peace


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InvisibleDoc_T
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Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years [Re: supra]
    #11220760 - 10/10/09 03:08 PM (8 years, 14 days ago)

Quote:

supra said:
I also think some paradigm shifts will be made, as they always are, when needed. 




Handwriting, for example. It's a fad. Centuries long, but still a fad. In the future, it'll be a quaint old hobby. Like making horeseshoes by hand or something.


--------------------
You make it all possible. Doesn't it feel good?


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