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InvisibleFerris
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Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule.
    #10971018 - 08/31/09 04:47 AM (14 years, 4 months ago)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/08/31/japan.elections.whatnext/

Quote:

TOKYO, Japan (CNN) -- Now comes the hard part. Handed a sweeping mandate for change, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) begins the formidable task of delivering on a laundry list of promises intended to lift the country after its worst recession since World War II.

Voters -- skeptical, pessimistic and impatient -- are unlikely to give the party, which has never held office, much time to make good.

Japan is witnessing historic highs in unemployment and experiencing ramifications like homelessness for the first time.

Dissatisfied with the way Prime Minister Taro Aso was handling the crisis, the electorate booted from power his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed the country for nearly half a century.

The election commission has yet to certify Sunday's election results officially. But according to the parties, the DPJ won 3-to-1 over the LDP. VideoWatch more about the political upheaval »

The DPJ's 308 seats in the lower house of the parliament, compared with the LDP's 119, is almost the exact opposite of their standing before Sunday's vote.

An assortment of other parties snagged the rest of the seats in the 480-seat lower house.

Elections for the upper house will be held next year.

Bruised politically, Aso officially stepped down as head of his party on Monday. VideoWatch report on why voters are looking for change »

Poised to become the next prime minister is DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama. He was restrained in his first public comments since the vote.

"I hope this victory will be for the people of Japan," he said Sunday.

Hatoyama is setting up a transition team, but is not expected to announce his Cabinet until he officially takes office through a special parliamentary session in the next two weeks.

The DPJ leader has been touting a Barack Obama-style message of change. He has pledged to raise the minimum wage and discourage hiring through agencies or on temporary contracts.

Hatoyama's party has adopted a salvation plan based on "trickle up economics." It wants to put money in the hands of families, in hopes that they will spend it in Japan and stimulate the world's second-largest economy.

Though Japan officially rebounded from its recession in mid-August, Japanese households have yet to feel secure about a lasting economic recovery.

In its election manifesto, the DPJ said it will pay about $3,000 per child to each family every year -- to encourage women to have babies and reverse the country's rapidly aging and shrinking population.

It will also pay about $1,000 a month to each unemployed Japanese as he looks for a job.

But the question is, where will the money come from. Japan's budget deficit is enormous. Its national debt is almost two times its gross domestic product.

The DPJ says the money is there, tied up in the corruption and bureaucracy of decades-long LDP rule.

"The money which should go to the consumers and the farmers and small-scale business owners was stopped by the bureaucrats," said DPJ lawmaker Yukihasa Fujita.

"The budget went to the hands of industry and the bureaucrats. Therefore, the money didn't go to the consumers. Therefore, the economy has not been able to lift up."

On the foreign policy front, Hatoyama has strongly criticized what he perceived as Aso's pro-United States stance.

He said he will halt Japan's refueling missions in the Indian Ocean in support of U.S.-led coalition warships in and around Afghanistan.

But analysts say Hatoyama is unlikely to risk alienation abroad while he focuses on fixing what ails Japan domestically.

"We are confident that the strong U.S.-Japan alliance and the close partnership between our two countries will continue to flourish under the leadership of the next government in Tokyo," the White House said in a statement Sunday.

On Monday, Japan's stock market surged on news of the DPJ win, but closed with shares falling slightly -- reflecting the ambiguity that Japan feels about the coming days.




The DPJ is a step up from the LDP (who really need to change their outdated name). It's a tenuous coalition though, holding both populists and progressives (in a way like the US Democratic Party). Whether they'll hold or fracture when certain policies take precedent over others will determine their survival.

On the issues, I am highly critical of family planning in the US and while it appears to make more sense there due to the age structure, I think Japan would be better off taking the hit now and benefiting later from lower pop growth rates.

"He has pledged to raise the minimum wage and discourage hiring through agencies or on temporary contracts."

The first is something I'm always in support of, and the second is an issue that doesn't get nearly the attention it deserves. Hopefully Japan will raise the profile of the issue internationally, as businesses are looking to beef up that bottom line by taking advantage of plentiful labor.

We should all keep a close eye on what happens there in the coming months, as the world watched us in early 2009. The implications are going to be widespread.


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Ferris]
    #10971072 - 08/31/09 05:21 AM (14 years, 4 months ago)

> The first is something I'm always in support of,

Raising minimum wage does nothing good and has many harmful side effects on an economy and the people.  Contrary to popular belief, money does not grow on trees and employers often cannot afford to pay their employees more.  The money has to come from somewhere, so either the prices of goods have to be raised (making the increased wages pointless) or jobs have to be cut (making the increased wages pointless) or the company closes down (making the increased wages pointless).  Minimum wage helps drive inflation and unemployment.  Instead of minimum wage, supply and demand of jobs should dictate applicable wages.

> and discourage hiring through agencies or on temporary contracts.

This is a good thing, especially given Japan's culture where traditionally, your employer is part of your family (so to speak).


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Seuss]
    #10971089 - 08/31/09 05:34 AM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Ya, I understand all that about the minimum wage, I just think the optimal balance between economic and social benefit is somewhere higher than it is.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Ferris]
    #10971729 - 08/31/09 09:55 AM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Hmmm maybe thats why all the markets went to shit in Asia early this morning?


--------------------
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We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Ferris]
    #10971846 - 08/31/09 10:20 AM (14 years, 4 months ago)

and how does the Democratic Party of Japan feel about buying Americas debt?

Obama is going to need somebody to but about 9-14 trillion dollars in debt over the next few years!


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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OfflineYrat
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: lonestar2004]
    #10971993 - 08/31/09 10:54 AM (14 years, 4 months ago)

american citizens will buy it via their tax money.  the rest of the world is no longer dumb enough to keep this party going.


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Yrat]
    #10972290 - 08/31/09 12:07 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

> american citizens will buy it via their tax money.  the rest of the world is no longer dumb enough to keep this party going.

How is that possible when Obama is spending money faster than taxes are replacing money?


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OfflineYrat
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Seuss]
    #10972604 - 08/31/09 01:26 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

higher future tax rates?  either that, or the Fed will monetize the debt.  oh wait, they already started doing that.  hello zimbabwe!


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: lonestar2004]
    #10973836 - 08/31/09 04:35 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
Hmmm maybe thats why all the markets went to shit in Asia early this morning?




This happened yesterday and the markets rose.  I dunno if this is continued carryover in response to international opinion or what.


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Seuss]
    #10974859 - 08/31/09 07:05 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
Raising minimum wage does nothing good and has many harmful side effects on an economy and the people.  Contrary to popular belief, money does not grow on trees and employers often cannot afford to pay their employees more.  The money has to come from somewhere, so either the prices of goods have to be raised (making the increased wages pointless) or jobs have to be cut (making the increased wages pointless) or the company closes down (making the increased wages pointless).  Minimum wage helps drive inflation and unemployment.  Instead of minimum wage, supply and demand of jobs should dictate applicable wages.




That's a ridiculously crude oversimplification. People who oppose minimum wage as a default position have no idea about how general efficiency and general productivity factor into an economy. If it were up to people of that ilk humanity would harvest wheat by scythe at a price of a quarter per hour or something so ridiculous as that.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: ScavengerType]
    #10974893 - 08/31/09 07:09 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Or use thresher machines that makes 90% of the field workers obsolete.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: ScavengerType]
    #10974896 - 08/31/09 07:09 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

ScavengerType said:
If it were up to people of that ilk humanity would harvest wheat by scythe at a price of a quarter per hour or something so ridiculous as that.




Wow.  What nonsense.  Do you have anything to back that bullshit up?


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #10974920 - 08/31/09 07:11 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

People who oppose minimum wage as a default position have no idea about how general efficiency and general productivity factor into an economy




Why don't you guys try attacking this part, which is more or less correct.


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OfflineYrat
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Ferris]
    #10974983 - 08/31/09 07:17 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Ferris said:
Quote:

People who oppose minimum wage as a default position have no idea about how general efficiency and general productivity factor into an economy




Why don't you guys try attacking this part, which is more or less correct.





does it factor in the losses of "productivity" when employers can't hire multiple people for menial, below-wage jobs?  is it better that they're unemployed while looking for better work?


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Yrat]
    #10975004 - 08/31/09 07:19 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Yes, check out the CBO analysises (sp?).


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Ferris]
    #10975093 - 08/31/09 07:33 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Ferris said:
Quote:

People who oppose minimum wage as a default position have no idea about how general efficiency and general productivity factor into an economy




Why don't you guys try attacking this part, which is more or less correct.



So says you.  Without any proof or backup.  How does government interference impact general efficiency or productivity in any  positive way?  Answer;  "it doesn't".  Further, what evidence do you have that a business owner such as myself has a lesser understanding of productivity and efficiency than someone who has approximately 15 minutes experience in the work force such as yourself?  If that.


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #10975140 - 08/31/09 07:38 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

I own two businesses dude :rofl:

One is in haitus and the other barely pays the bills, but the point stands.

Minimum wage should be set so that the marginal increase in labor productivity should be in equilibrium with the marginal decrease in overall productivity due to decreased employment and other factors.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Ferris]
    #10975217 - 08/31/09 07:49 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Ferris said:
I own two businesses dude :rofl:

One is in haitus and the other barely pays the bills, but the point stands.




Clearly you know tons about efficiency and productivity.  Holy shit do you have any idea how you just cut your own nuts off?
Quote:



Minimum wage should be set so that the marginal increase in labor productivity should be in equilibrium with the marginal decrease in overall productivity due to decreased employment and other factors.




Shouldn't that be determined by the homeostatic nature of the marketplace as opposed to being imposed by a bunch of wankers with zero experience and a political stake in pandering to selfish fools who just happen to have a vote?  By what deus ex machina agency do you think those jerkoffs know better?  Answer;  "none".


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #10975383 - 08/31/09 08:17 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

It's determined through a statistical analysis determined by the CBO, not arbitrarily by a room full of politicians.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Redstorm]
    #10975404 - 08/31/09 08:20 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Redstorm said:
Or use thresher machines that makes 90% of the field workers obsolete.




:rofl:


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: Redstorm]
    #10976091 - 08/31/09 10:11 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Redstorm said:
Or use thresher machines that makes 90% of the field workers obsolete.



If you were to pay them a quarter an hour or some such ridiculous wage (but not far under a Chinese walmart sweatshop worker's pay circa 2002) it wouldn't matter how efficient a thresher is, twas my point. Automation is a result of forces that do dictate higher wages for workers. Besides if threshing industrial acreages wasn't the norm it would open for other farming methods that would lead to large innovation in crop yields (like not monocropping). It sounds more inefficient in comparison, just because it doesn't make room for efficiencies in ecology that would exist or would be utilized with out the innovation that came from wage laws.

You can talk all you want about the merits of the market and how you know how to run an efficient workplace. but I've worked for total fucks for whom it was worse than pulling teeth from a grizzly bear to get them to make and efficiency changes, never mind the safety changes, even when it required little or no investment on their part and would make them more money in the long run. Thing is, they talked the same shtick and even if you are not lying for your abilities on your part, those fucks are still out there secure in their jobs running businesses. Now, raising the minimum amount of wage workers must be payed will lead to automation and efficiency or it will lead to a buisness going under. I think it is dubious that many of you screaming against minimum wage "killing jobs" are the first to say that the market is a sink or swim world. Well in the business community, minimum wages thin the herd so to speak.

That said you should not get your panties in a knot if you think this will lead to a min wage rise in the US. Japan has a lot of different factors in it that necessitate min wage rises, including a 1worker:4dependants (though that is a 5 year old statistic) dependency ratio, among other economic factors.

Adjusted for inflation your US federal minimum wage looks like this.

It's not like it's even that high with a historical comparison.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: lonestar2004]
    #10998761 - 09/04/09 12:54 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
and how does the Democratic Party of Japan feel about buying Americas debt?





Very astute question.

"Some members of the DPJ have vowed to shun U.S. debt, which suggests public pension funds and other quasi-government funds (such as the newly privatized Japan Post Holdings, whose shares are still held by the government) could move to higher-yielding assets if DPJ becomes the ruling party.

Diversification of foreign exchange reserves and pension funds away from the U.S. dollar could mean sharp losses for the dollar. Japan is the second-largest foreign holder of Treasurys (after China). The reduction in Japan's external surplus in 2009 may already have contributed to a reduction in Japanese reserve growth and U.S. debt holdings.

Despite the decrease in the U.S. current account deficit and a higher U.S. savings rate, the U.S. would have a very difficult time meeting its financing needs if Japan stopped buying U.S. debt and sold off its dollar assets or signaled the intent to do so. Such a move could precipitate a disorderly decline in the U.S. dollar and the loss of its supremacy as a global reserve currency, especially if other reserve holders followed Japan's lead."

http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/22/japan-deflation-lost-decade-aso-yen-dollar-opinions-columnists-nouriel-roubini.html


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: Democratic Party of Japan ends 54 years of LDP rule. [Re: zorbman]
    #11005816 - 09/05/09 07:51 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

that's America-centric, Japan buys most of it's nat resources from Canada. It can reconcile US debt quite easy. We'll be happy to take a bunch of northern states on the cheap and refurbish them... assuming some of the Americans have to leave.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club


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