Home | Community | Message Board


This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder   Myyco.com Isolated Cubensis Liquid Culture For Sale   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

Jump to first unread post Pages: < Back | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Next >  [ show all ]
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 9 months
Re: Iran [Re: fireworks_god]
    #10552277 - 06/22/09 05:31 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Apparently you and the mouthpiece are quite wrong about a lack of support.


--------------------

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineRedstorm
Prince of Bugs
Male


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 10/08/02
Posts: 44,175
Last seen: 5 months, 8 days
Re: Iran [Re: zappaisgod]
    #10552281 - 06/22/09 05:35 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

According to you?

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
 User Gallery


Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 13 years, 2 days
Re: Iran [Re: phi1618]
    #10552672 - 06/22/09 09:06 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

phi1618 said:
For anyone who hasn't seen it, here's a video of a dead protester.







thats fucked up.....


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinephi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 10 months
Re: Iran [Re: fireworks_god]
    #10552775 - 06/22/09 09:45 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

fireworks_god said:

The reference to the guy instigating the unrest because he didn't have the support is the simple truth of the matter. He probably got paid off to do it, even.





I'm surprised that you know "the simple truth of the matter" from behind your desk in the US.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,312
Last seen: 3 years, 18 days
Re: Iran [Re: lonestar2004]
    #10552783 - 06/22/09 09:48 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

there has been a recent internet storm over this girl who was killed.  she has become quite the martyr.


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
 User Gallery


Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 13 years, 2 days
Re: Iran [Re: Yrat]
    #10552791 - 06/22/09 09:49 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

how exactly did she get killed? does anyone know?


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineMadtowntripper
Sun-Beams out of Cucumbers
 User Gallery


Registered: 03/06/03
Posts: 21,287
Loc: The Ocean of Notions
Last seen: 7 months, 21 days
Re: Iran [Re: lonestar2004]
    #10552829 - 06/22/09 10:01 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Nobody knows.

The narration in the video I saw claimed she was killed by security services, but I don't think anyone actually knows.

Even her name is conjecture.

Reliable information is hard to come by.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,312
Last seen: 3 years, 18 days
Re: Iran [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #10552850 - 06/22/09 10:07 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

everything i've read says she was shot in the chest by some basiji.  but with media in such a stranglehold, both going in and out, who knows :shrug:


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleOneMoreRobot3021
Male


Registered: 06/06/03
Posts: 61,026
Loc: the sky
Re: Iran [Re: Yrat]
    #10553189 - 06/22/09 11:38 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Sent to me by a friend, usually scoff at slacktivism but this seems to make sense:

Something YOU can try to help the Iranian people: If you have a Twitter account, set your location to Tehran and your time zone to GMT +3.30. Security forces are hunting for bloggers using location/timezone searches. The more people at this location, the more of a logjam it creates for forces trying to shut Iranians' access to the internet down. Cut, paste and please pass it on.


--------------------
Acid doesn't give you truths; it builds machines that push the envelope of perception. Whatever revelations came to me then have dissolved like skywriting. All I really know is that those few years saddled me with a faith in the redemptive potential of the imagination which, however flat, stale and unprofitable the world seems to me now, I cannot for the life of me shake.

-Erik Davis

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 9 months
Re: Iran [Re: Redstorm]
    #10553642 - 06/22/09 01:29 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Redstorm said:
According to you?



According to me?  Seems to be quite few peeps in da streets.  Teheran's mouthpiece is sounding a good bit like Baghdad Bob.


--------------------

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleOneMoreRobot3021
Male


Registered: 06/06/03
Posts: 61,026
Loc: the sky
Re: Iran [Re: zappaisgod]
    #10554086 - 06/22/09 02:50 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)



--------------------
Acid doesn't give you truths; it builds machines that push the envelope of perception. Whatever revelations came to me then have dissolved like skywriting. All I really know is that those few years saddled me with a faith in the redemptive potential of the imagination which, however flat, stale and unprofitable the world seems to me now, I cannot for the life of me shake.

-Erik Davis

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineRedstorm
Prince of Bugs
Male


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 10/08/02
Posts: 44,175
Last seen: 5 months, 8 days
Re: Iran [Re: zappaisgod]
    #10554758 - 06/22/09 04:40 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Sorry, I completely misunderstood your post. Essentially I agree with you.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 9 months
Re: Iran [Re: Redstorm]
    #10554787 - 06/22/09 04:44 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

I thought that seemed odd from you.


--------------------

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineRedstorm
Prince of Bugs
Male


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 10/08/02
Posts: 44,175
Last seen: 5 months, 8 days
Re: Iran [Re: zappaisgod]
    #10554799 - 06/22/09 04:45 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

That's what happens when I'm posting at 7:30 on a shitty night's sleep.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinephi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 10 months
Re: Iran [Re: Yrat]
    #10555195 - 06/22/09 05:58 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Here's more info on the dead woman:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/world/middleeast/23neda.html?ref=global-home

A symbolic martyr is powerful, in any culture.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinephi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 10 months
Re: Iran [Re: phi1618]
    #10555236 - 06/22/09 06:05 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Stratfor is a news and analysis service I follow. They're usually right. The founder, George Friedman, is pretty right-wing, but the geopolitical analysis is usually dead on.

So far, they've pretty well missed on this issue. However, they're still calling victory for the forces of oppression; or more specifically, claiming that the educated students protesting are a minority, and the silent majority supports the government. It is certainly true that we here in America will here much more from the cell-phone wielding English-speaking elite than the poor masses.

Here's the latest:
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090622_iranian_election_and_revolution_test
Quote:

The Iranian Election and the Revolution Test
June 22, 2009 | 1840 GMT



By George Friedman

RELATED LINK
The Geopolitics of Iran: Holding the Center of a Mountain Fortress
RELATED SPECIAL TOPIC PAGE
Ongoing Coverage and Updates
Successful revolutions have three phases. First, a strategically located single or limited segment of society begins vocally to express resentment, asserting itself in the streets of a major city, usually the capital. This segment is joined by other segments in the city and by segments elsewhere as the demonstration spreads to other cities and becomes more assertive, disruptive and potentially violent. As resistance to the regime spreads, the regime deploys its military and security forces. These forces, drawn from resisting social segments and isolated from the rest of society, turn on the regime, and stop following the regime’s orders. This is what happened to the Shah of Iran in 1979; it is also what happened in Russia in 1917 or in Romania in 1989.

Revolutions fail when no one joins the initial segment, meaning the initial demonstrators are the ones who find themselves socially isolated. When the demonstrations do not spread to other cities, the demonstrations either peter out or the regime brings in the security and military forces — who remain loyal to the regime and frequently personally hostile to the demonstrators — and use force to suppress the rising to the extent necessary. This is what happened in Tiananmen Square in China: The students who rose up were not joined by others. Military forces who were not only loyal to the regime but hostile to the students were brought in, and the students were crushed.

A Question of Support
This is also what happened in Iran this week. The global media, obsessively focused on the initial demonstrators — who were supporters of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s opponents — failed to notice that while large, the demonstrations primarily consisted of the same type of people demonstrating. Amid the breathless reporting on the demonstrations, reporters failed to notice that the uprising was not spreading to other classes and to other areas. In constantly interviewing English-speaking demonstrators, they failed to note just how many of the demonstrators spoke English and had smartphones. The media thus did not recognize these as the signs of a failing revolution.

Later, when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke Friday and called out the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, they failed to understand that the troops — definitely not drawn from what we might call the “Twittering classes,” would remain loyal to the regime for ideological and social reasons. The troops had about as much sympathy for the demonstrators as a small-town boy from Alabama might have for a Harvard postdoc. Failing to understand the social tensions in Iran, the reporters deluded themselves into thinking they were witnessing a general uprising. But this was not St. Petersburg in 1917 or Bucharest in 1989 — it was Tiananmen Square.

In the global discussion last week outside Iran, there was a great deal of confusion about basic facts. For example, it is said that the urban-rural distinction in Iran is not critical any longer because according to the United Nations, 68 percent of Iranians are urbanized. This is an important point because it implies Iran is homogeneous and the demonstrators representative of the country. The problem is the Iranian definition of urban — and this is quite common around the world — includes very small communities (some with only a few thousand people) as “urban.” But the social difference between someone living in a town with 10,000 people and someone living in Tehran is the difference between someone living in Bastrop, Texas and someone living in New York. We can assure you that that difference is not only vast, but that most of the good people of Bastrop and the fine people of New York would probably not see the world the same way. The failure to understand the dramatic diversity of Iranian society led observers to assume that students at Iran’s elite university somehow spoke for the rest of the country.

Tehran proper has about 8 million inhabitants; its suburbs bring it to about 13 million people out of Iran’s total population of 70.5 million. Tehran accounts for about 20 percent of Iran, but as we know, the cab driver and the construction worker are not socially linked to students at elite universities. There are six cities with populations between 1 million and 2.4 million people and 11 with populations of about 500,000. Including Tehran proper, 15.5 million people live in cities with more than 1 million and 19.7 million in cities greater than 500,000. Iran has 80 cities with more than 100,000. But given that Waco, Texas, has more than 100,000 people, inferences of social similarities between cities with 100,000 and 5 million are tenuous. And with metro Oklahoma City having more than a million people, it becomes plain that urbanization has many faces.

Winning the Election With or Without Fraud
We continue to believe two things: that vote fraud occurred, and that Ahmadinejad likely would have won without it. Very little direct evidence has emerged to establish vote fraud, but several things seem suspect.

For example, the speed of the vote count has been taken as a sign of fraud, as it should have been impossible to count votes that fast. The polls originally were to have closed at 7 p.m. local time, but voting hours were extended until 10 p.m. because of the number of voters in line. By 11:45 p.m. about 20 percent of the vote had been counted. By 5:20 a.m. the next day, with almost all votes counted, the election commission declared Ahmadinejad the winner. The vote count thus took about seven hours. (Remember there were no senators, congressmen, city council members or school board members being counted — just the presidential race.) Intriguingly, this is about the same time in took in 2005, though reformists that claimed fraud back then did not stress the counting time in their allegations.

The counting mechanism is simple: Iran has 47,000 voting stations, plus 14,000 roaming stations that travel from tiny village to tiny village, staying there for a short time before moving on. That creates 61,000 ballot boxes designed to receive roughly the same number of votes. That would mean that each station would have been counting about 500 ballots, or about 70 votes per hour. With counting beginning at 10 p.m., concluding seven hours later does not necessarily indicate fraud or anything else. The Iranian presidential election system is designed for simplicity: one race to count in one time zone, and all counting beginning at the same time in all regions, we would expect the numbers to come in a somewhat linear fashion as rural and urban voting patterns would balance each other out — explaining why voting percentages didn’t change much during the night.

It has been pointed out that some of the candidates didn’t even carry their own provinces or districts. We remember that Al Gore didn’t carry Tennessee in 2000. We also remember Ralph Nader, who also didn’t carry his home precinct in part because people didn’t want to spend their vote on someone unlikely to win — an effect probably felt by the two smaller candidates in the Iranian election.

That Mousavi didn’t carry his own province is more interesting. Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett writing in Politico make some interesting points on this. As an ethnic Azeri, it was assumed that Mousavi would carry his Azeri-named and -dominated home province. But they also point out that Ahmadinejad also speaks Azeri, and made multiple campaign appearances in the district. They also point out that Khamenei is Azeri. In sum, winning that district was by no means certain for Mousavi, so losing it does not automatically signal fraud. It raised suspicions, but by no means was a smoking gun.

We do not doubt that fraud occurred during Iranian election. For example, 99.4 percent of potential voters voted in Mazandaran province, a mostly secular area home to the shah’s family. Ahmadinejad carried the province by a 2.2 to 1 ratio. That is one heck of a turnout and level of support for a province that lost everything when the mullahs took over 30 years ago. But even if you take all of the suspect cases and added them together, it would not have changed the outcome. The fact is that Ahmadinejad’s vote in 2009 was extremely close to his victory percentage in 2005. And while the Western media portrayed Ahmadinejad’s performance in the presidential debates ahead of the election as dismal, embarrassing and indicative of an imminent electoral defeat, many Iranians who viewed those debates — including some of the most hardcore Mousavi supporters — acknowledge that Ahmadinejad outperformed his opponents by a landslide.

Mousavi persuasively detailed his fraud claims Sunday, and they have yet to be rebutted. But if his claims of the extent of fraud were true, the protests should have spread rapidly by social segment and geography to the millions of people who even the central government asserts voted for him. Certainly, Mousavi supporters believed they would win the election based in part on highly flawed polls, and when they didn’t, they assumed they were robbed and took to the streets.

But critically, the protesters were not joined by any of the millions whose votes the protesters alleged were stolen. In a complete hijacking of the election by some 13 million votes by an extremely unpopular candidate, we would have expected to see the core of Mousavi’s supporters joined by others who had been disenfranchised. On last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, when the demonstrations were at their height, the millions of Mousavi voters should have made their appearance. They didn’t. We might assume that the security apparatus intimidated some, but surely more than just the Tehran professional and student classes posses civic courage. While appearing large, the demonstrations actually comprised a small fraction of society.

Tensions Among the Political Elite
All of this not to say there are not tremendous tensions within the Iranian political elite. That no revolution broke out does not mean there isn’t a crisis in the political elite, particularly among the clerics. But that crisis does not cut the way Western common sense would have it. Many of Iran’s religious leaders see Ahmadinejad as hostile to their interests, as threatening their financial prerogatives, and as taking international risks they don’t want to take. Ahmadinejad’s political popularity in fact rests on his populist hostility to what he sees as the corruption of the clerics and their families and his strong stand on Iranian national security issues.

The clerics are divided among themselves, but many wanted to see Ahmadinejad lose to protect their own interests. Khamenei, the supreme leader, faced a difficult choice last Friday. He could demand a major recount or even new elections, or he could validate what happened. Khamenei speaks for a sizable chunk of the ruling elite, but also has had to rule by consensus among both clerical and non-clerical forces. Many powerful clerics like Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani wanted Khamenei to reverse the election, and we suspect Khamenei wished he could have found a way to do it. But as the defender of the regime, he was afraid to. Mousavi supporters’ demonstrations would have been nothing compared to the firestorm among Ahmadinejad supporters — both voters and the security forces — had their candidate been denied. Khamenei wasn’t going to flirt with disaster, so he endorsed the outcome.

The Western media misunderstood this because they didn’t understand that Ahmadinejad does not speak for the clerics but against them, that many of the clerics were working for his defeat, and that Ahmadinejad has enormous pull in the country’s security apparatus. The reason Western media missed this is because they bought into the concept of the stolen election, therefore failing to see Ahmadinejad’s support and the widespread dissatisfaction with the old clerical elite. The Western media simply didn’t understand that the most traditional and pious segments of Iranian society support Ahmadinejad because he opposes the old ruling elite. Instead, they assumed this was like Prague or Budapest in 1989, with a broad-based uprising in favor of liberalism against an unpopular regime.

Tehran in 2009, however, was a struggle between two main factions, both of which supported the Islamic republic as it was. There were the clerics, who have dominated the regime since 1979 and had grown wealthy in the process. And there was Ahmadinejad, who felt the ruling clerical elite had betrayed the revolution with their personal excesses. And there also was the small faction the BBC and CNN kept focusing on — the demonstrators in the streets who want to dramatically liberalize the Islamic republic. This faction never stood a chance of taking power, whether by election or revolution. The two main factions used the third smaller faction in various ways, however. Ahmadinejad used it to make his case that the clerics who supported them, like Rafsanjani, would risk the revolution and play into the hands of the Americans and British to protect their own wealth. Meanwhile, Rafsanjani argued behind the scenes that the unrest was the tip of the iceberg, and that Ahmadinejad had to be replaced. Khamenei, an astute politician, examined the data and supported Ahmadinejad.

Now, as we saw after Tiananmen Square, we will see a reshuffling among the elite. Those who backed Mousavi will be on the defensive. By contrast, those who supported Ahmadinejad are in a powerful position. There is a massive crisis in the elite, but this crisis has nothing to do with liberalization: It has to do with power and prerogatives among the elite. Having been forced by the election and Khamenei to live with Ahmadinejad, some will make deals while some will fight — but Ahmadinejad is well-positioned to win this battle.




I definitely hope for a revolution in Iran, and have the deepest sympathy for the students, but really - what can we know from here?

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineMadtowntripper
Sun-Beams out of Cucumbers
 User Gallery


Registered: 03/06/03
Posts: 21,287
Loc: The Ocean of Notions
Last seen: 7 months, 21 days
Re: Iran [Re: phi1618]
    #10555282 - 06/22/09 06:13 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

It seems pretty clear to me that the protesters have relatively limited support at this stage in the movement.

The recent protests are estimated in the hundreds, or thousands at the most.  This contrasts with the tens-or-hundreds of thousands that were present in the protests of earlier this month.  I think the killing of the protesters by the internal security forces could have either incited the population to greater action or cowed them into accepting the governmental yoke rather than the uncertainty of (another) revolution.  It seems the latter has taken place, at least at the moment.

This is all, of course, in the best interests of the government.  It's very hard for a state, even a totalitarian one to arrest, detain, or disperse hundreds of thousands of people.  But you can very easily make several hundreds of people disappear.  And the cadre of citizens willing to take such action (protesting) in the face of sure arrest and imprisonment in an Iranian jail must be limited.

The government has certainly been alerted to the fact that the populace is much less happily gullible than they had presumed.  What changes they choose to make in the face of such information remains to be seen, but I don't think you'll see the Clerics step out of the government anytime soon as a result of these protests, however much I may support their aims myself.

Of course, I'm a pessimist.  Maybe the whole fucking rotten thing will collapse tomorrow.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinephi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 10 months
Re: Iran [Re: phi1618]
    #10555295 - 06/22/09 06:15 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Obama is right to be restrained in his support for the Iranian protesters. The government of Iran has repeatedly tried to find an outside scapegoat for their problems, even blaming the explosion Sat. on the MEK (read Americans). They would love nothing more than open support from America for the Iranian students.

Remember that, from our perspective, there's not much difference between the candidates. It is more a question of women's rights, of internal conservatism. If the student rebellion takes hold, this will be good for our relations with Iran, but don't forget the history. Older Iranians, in particular, remember the Shah, and accusations of foreign intervention will carry some weight - against the protesters.

In addition, the theocracy is still the odds-on favorite to win this thing; it will be hard enough dealing with them without having a public statement from our president advocating their overthrow. The idea that there is no diplomacy or negotiation going on with Iran is absurd; they have significant influence in the region (including Iraq and Afghanistan), and while air strikes on their nuclear facilities might (or might not) have the desired effect, a ground war would be suicide - think Afghanistan plus Iraq squared - more populous, better armed, and full of mountains. Pure hell.

We can have good wishes for the students in Iran, but our direct, top-down help would be counter-productive for them and downright harmful to our interests. Obama is right to show restraint.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 9 months
Re: Iran [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #10555433 - 06/22/09 06:36 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Madtowntripper said:
It seems pretty clear to me that the protesters have relatively limited support at this stage in the movement.

The recent protests are estimated in the hundreds, or thousands at the most.  This contrasts with the tens-or-hundreds of thousands that were present in the protests of earlier this month.  I think the killing of the protesters by the internal security forces could have either incited the population to greater action or cowed them into accepting the governmental yoke rather than the uncertainty of (another) revolution.  It seems the latter has taken place, at least at the moment.

This is all, of course, in the best interests of the government.  It's very hard for a state, even a totalitarian one to arrest, detain, or disperse hundreds of thousands of people.  But you can very easily make several hundreds of people disappear.  And the cadre of citizens willing to take such action (protesting) in the face of sure arrest and imprisonment in an Iranian jail must be limited.

The government has certainly been alerted to the fact that the populace is much less happily gullible than they had presumed.  What changes they choose to make in the face of such information remains to be seen, but I don't think you'll see the Clerics step out of the government anytime soon as a result of these protests, however much I may support their aims myself.

Of course, I'm a pessimist.  Maybe the whole fucking rotten thing will collapse tomorrow.




I don't think it was arrest that cowed them.  Much like in Tian an men Square it is murder that tends to cow a population.  President Present's "The Whole World is Watching" stance is all well and good in a civilized society that doesn't shoot protesters on sight.  It doesn't quite have the same effect when the rulers are, in fact, homicidal maniacs.  And religious lunatics with a history of supporting and convincing other people to commit suicide for their totalitarian aims.

At the very least I hope I will never have to listen to another retarded douchebag telling me Iran is a democracy.  Becuase reading stuff that stupid was really annoying.


--------------------

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 9 months
Re: Iran [Re: phi1618]
    #10555470 - 06/22/09 06:41 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

phi1618 said:
Obama is right to be restrained in his support for the Iranian protesters. The government of Iran has repeatedly tried to find an outside scapegoat for their problems, even blaming the explosion Sat. on the MEK (read Americans). They would love nothing more than open support from America for the Iranian students.

Remember that, from our perspective, there's not much difference between the candidates. It is more a question of women's rights, of internal conservatism. If the student rebellion takes hold, this will be good for our relations with Iran, but don't forget the history. Older Iranians, in particular, remember the Shah, and accusations of foreign intervention will carry some weight - against the protesters.

In addition, the theocracy is still the odds-on favorite to win this thing; it will be hard enough dealing with them without having a public statement from our president advocating their overthrow. The idea that there is no diplomacy or negotiation going on with Iran is absurd; they have significant influence in the region (including Iraq and Afghanistan), and while air strikes on their nuclear facilities might (or might not) have the desired effect, a ground war would be suicide - think Afghanistan plus Iraq squared - more populous, better armed, and full of mountains. Pure hell.

We can have good wishes for the students in Iran, but our direct, top-down help would be counter-productive for them and downright harmful to our interests. Obama is right to show restraint.




What crap.  Iran HAS whinged endlessly and no restraint on President Present's part will change that.  He was right to say Mousavui also sucks but he isn't even the issue.  The issue is democracy and the People's choice and they have been denied that.  You have no morals.  You sell out the People for expedience, and a false one at that.  A whore's choice, I say.  And this shah crap is just that, crap.  Does anybody remember what the choice was?  A Soviet puppet.  Ask the Poles and Hungarians how free that was.


--------------------

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: < Back | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Next >  [ show all ]

Shop: PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder   Myyco.com Isolated Cubensis Liquid Culture For Sale   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Diplomats In Disarray Over Iran daimyo 579 4 09/21/05 06:24 AM
by psilomonkey
* Bigger Threat to the World : Iran or Saudi Arabia?
( 1 2 all )
Dexter_Morgan 2,003 25 08/30/06 06:56 PM
by Asante
* A strike on Iran could lead to another recession.
( 1 2 3 4 5 all )
AlphaFalfa 4,492 82 03/06/12 11:05 AM
by imachavel
* Please convince me that Iran is in the wrong. AlphaFalfa 827 9 02/27/12 07:36 AM
by Prisoner#1
* Iran Increasingly Hostile
( 1 2 3 4 5 6 all )
fireworks_godS 9,468 111 04/04/07 05:32 PM
by The_Red_Crayon
* Iran to Hang 30 Drug Dealers and Adulterers on Sunday
( 1 2 3 all )
Madtowntripper 3,894 45 08/01/08 05:11 PM
by Prisoner#1
* Translations and lies - What does the president of IRAN really say MAIA 1,544 15 05/05/06 01:38 PM
by RandalFlagg
* Potential War with IRAN - YAY or NAY?
( 1 2 3 4 ... 10 11 all )
AlphaFalfa 9,457 219 03/04/11 09:08 AM
by TheThinker

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: Enlil, ballsalsa
4,827 topic views. 7 members, 11 guests and 21 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.024 seconds spending 0.007 seconds on 15 queries.