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Offlinelibertaire
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Anthropogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction?
    #10261873 - 04/30/09 11:13 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

I know there have been several threads on this subject already, but rather than resurrect an old thread, I thought I'd see what the general consensus is on this subject around here.

I'm pretty much on the fence right now.  At first I thought that it was probably all just a part of the natural cycle that the earth has been going through for millions of years, and how would we know what that is exactly if we've only been measuring the earth's temperature for the past 150 years? 

Then I saw some graphs put out by the IPCC that showed what the predicted temperature would be if it were only calculated with natural emissions of green house gases, and this calculation does not line up with the actual results.  However, once the calculations were made to include man made green house gas emissions, things lined up almost perfectly.

Still, I'm not so sure.  How did they make these calculations, and these calculations are widely based on the idea that greenhouse gases are capable of affecting the temperature of the earth.  Where is the science to back that up?  I guess I just need to do some more research before I'm totally convinced, since I'm not really a climatologist or anything, but for now I'm gonna say I'm 90% certain that we're causing it, unless I see evidence other wise.

What do you guys think?

Edited by libertaire (08/30/09 08:44 AM)

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: libertaire]
    #10261988 - 04/30/09 11:34 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

> Fact or Fiction?

A bit of both.  I tend to fall on the more skeptical side, but I don't rule out the possibility.


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: libertaire]
    #10262063 - 04/30/09 11:48 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Its not all or nothing, like Seuss says.  Every time I flick a lighter Im causing global warming to some extent.  But I am skeptical of how much of it is humans responsibility.  And beyond that Im even more skeptical about the negative consequences implied by it.

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Offlinelibertaire
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: DieCommie]
    #10262091 - 04/30/09 11:52 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Hm, I don't really see how it can be both.  Either we are causing the earth to heat more than it normally would, or we're not.  Don't really see any middle ground there.

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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: Seuss]
    #10262311 - 04/30/09 12:38 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
> Fact or Fiction?

A bit of both.  I tend to fall on the more skeptical side, but I don't rule out the possibility.




That's where I side on the matter too. I don't doubt that our CO2 production is contributing to it, nor do I believe that it is causing it. I think CO2 production or not, the earth would be getting warmer. Natural climatic changes do happen.

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Offlinelibertaire
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: Gumby]
    #10262363 - 04/30/09 12:47 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

That's what I thought, until I saw the graph that showed the difference between the two calculations, natural impacts on the environment, aka what it really should be without our existence, vs. antrophogenic impacts on the evironment, aka what it really is.  I'm still not sure though.  Check out the IPCC's report that they put out in 2007, that's where I saw the graphs.

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Offlinelibertaire
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: libertaire]
    #10262413 - 04/30/09 12:53 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

This was the one:



Still though, I'm not so sure.  Seems like some pretty concrete evidence none the less.

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Invisiblejohnm214
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: DieCommie]
    #10262501 - 04/30/09 01:07 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Qubit said:
Its not all or nothing, like Seuss says.  Every time I flick a lighter Im causing global warming to some extent.  But I am skeptical of how much of it is humans responsibility.  And beyond that Im even more skeptical about the negative consequences implied by it.






Agree



My complaints:

Its a faith based discussion in the public discourse.  You have faith in global warming (which means anthropogenic correctable warming almost exclusively) or you have faith it doesn't exist.



Additionally the questions discussed in the media are often not the most relevant ones and they generally  beg the question (confusing the public).  They'll use "global warming" when referring to anthropogenic GW, they'll presume its correctable without explicitly stating such or demonstrating it, and they'll presume that if you aren't for programs you don't think it exists.



Basically I'm increasingly concerned that we gloss over, in the public discourse and in political talk, whether we can actually do anything about it and instead focus on crazy doomsday predictions and political proposals.



Just cuz AGW exists doesn't mean we should do anything about it.  We need to figure out if we should do anything about it, if we can do anything about it, and if the proposed changes are worth the likely effects.


I'm not willing to shackle this country's economy for good intentions if there's no reason to presume the global production won't stay the same (if we ban certain activities in the US and euope for example will the production just move to china and other areas who won't sign the same treaties?).  I find it somewhat ridiculous that people jump from "its getting warmer" to "this must be a good proposal because its goal is to slow global warming" without a discussion of whether the proposal is logical, efficacious, and not destroying sectors of our economy unjustly and for naught.

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Offlinelibertaire
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: johnm214]
    #10262546 - 04/30/09 01:17 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

I agree that logical discussion is definitely absent.  But if we can say "Yes, we are in fact causing global warming", I think it would be logical to say that if we cease whatever those causes are, the temperature will start to fall.  I'm not certain though.  Is the damage that we've supposedly done permanent?  Who knows?  I would tend to think that the earth has it's own systems built in that keep things in equilibrium.  Until humans come along and start to mess up that equilibrium more than the earth is capable of correcting.  But as I said, once we cease our actions, I think if that is what is causing this problem, it will correct itself.

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OfflineBrainChemistry
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: johnm214]
    #10262582 - 04/30/09 01:23 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

The way I see it, we are conducting an experiment on a global scale.

The CO2 that we emit into our atmosphere was supposed to stay in the Earth for millions of years. We are greatly accelerating a natural process, and nobody truly knows what the results will be. Right now we are in the middle of the experiment and we are making observations from within the petri dish, if you will. Its very easy to make bias observations.

There are several proven facts about CO2 content in the atmosphere though. One being, ocean acidification. Lab experiments have been conducted that directly correlate CO2 concentration in the atmosphere to the formation of carbonic acid (H2CO3), bicarbonate (HCO3) and carbonate (CO3) in seawater.

When these things get out of balance it causes pH shifts in the water that can harm marine life, but more importantly, it is deadly to coral reefs, which are habitats to countless varieties of life. Many of which are necessary to sustain the ocean food chain.

Personally...I don't like conducting blind experiments. Whether we are causing global warming or not, CO2 emission is not a joke. Its something we should be worried about.


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InvisibleMr. Bojangles
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: libertaire]
    #10262739 - 04/30/09 01:52 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Climate change throughout Earth's history can be measured via the geological record.

A good graph of it is here:

http://www.scotese.com/images/globaltemp.jpg

Right now we're at about 14.5 Celsius on average.  We're essentially coming out of a global "Ice Age."  This is in accordance with natural climactic cycles.

(A note on Ice Ages and that graph:  Glaciation and very uncomfortable climate change normally associated with Ice Ages, avg temps between -8 and 5 degrees Celsius during the Pleistocene did not extend much beyond 40 latitude...which is basically Oregon and further North.  Many other places south were very habitable, even warmer temps extending further towards the South Pole.  That graph just shows the Earth's average).

It's my opinion that humans have made an impact on how fast these temperature changes come about, with the possibilities of a higher temperature ceiling.  I don't know exactly how, I'm only familiar with the reactions of the depletion of ozone by CFC's, but depletion does not account for substantial warming.

But Earth was gonna warm up sooner or later :shrug:


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: libertaire]
    #10262772 - 04/30/09 01:57 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

> That's what I thought, until I saw the graph

Yep... you will never find a global warming alarmist that isn't using a graph and a computer model.


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: BrainChemistry]
    #10262813 - 04/30/09 02:03 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

> Personally...I don't like conducting blind experiments. Whether we are causing global warming or not, CO2 emission is not a joke. Its something we should be worried about.

I agree with you... but, and this is big... people like Al Goreda that want to get rich off of global warming alarmism by forcing people to pay him money for his "green" carbon credits that were created by managing money rather than producing something in a green manner turn efforts that combat CO2 emission into a joke.  CO2 emissions are also being used to redistribute wealth to third world countires... another one that is big, because third world countries, such as China and India, two of the largest polluters on the planet, demand to be exempt from emission controls, thus they can produce cheaper than anybody else.  I find the power play here to be more dangerous than anything CO2 emissions will cause.

Finally, look at the history of climate alarmists.  Most people here are too young to remember the warnings about the ozone layer going away and how if we didn't do something, in just a few years everybody would be dead.  We spent a ton of money reducing CFCs, last year was the worst year ever for the ozone layer, and people aren't turning into insta-charcoal when they walk outside.  In fact, you seldom hear anybody mention the ozone hole anymore... why... because CO2 is the new fad for scaring people into change.

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Offlinelibertaire
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: Seuss]
    #10266005 - 04/30/09 10:09 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
> That's what I thought, until I saw the graph

Yep... you will never find a global warming alarmist that isn't using a graph and a computer model.





Well, I'd probably be more inclined to believe someone that has a graph than someone who does not, because that implies that the former has done experiments or calculations and has some real scientific evidence to back up their position, while the latter likely does not. 

I definitely agree though, there will always be opportunists stirring up fear in the masses to make a quick buck.  That doesn't mean that that position is false, it just means people are exaggerating it to get rich.  I don't understand the whole carbon credit system, but it seems like a bunch of bullshit to me.

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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: libertaire]
    #10266249 - 04/30/09 10:52 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

---

Edited by EntheogenicPeace (12/10/21 08:16 PM)

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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: Seuss]
    #10266330 - 04/30/09 11:10 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

---

Edited by EntheogenicPeace (12/10/21 08:17 PM)

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: libertaire]
    #10267143 - 05/01/09 04:21 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

> Well, I'd probably be more inclined to believe someone that has a graph than someone who does not

Any moron with a piece of paper and a crayon can draw a graph.  Just because somebody can plot data does not mean that their data is accurate.  Believing a graph to be accurate is like trusting a banker because he is wearing a suit and tie.  The alarmist know that people tend to trust graphs, and they use this to their advantage.

> No, we're not all dead, but I'm pretty sure that skin cancer rates are on the rise worldwide (especially in Australia).

Which is meaningless.  You are implying causality where none has been shown.  Perhaps people have more free time to spend out in the sun.  Perhaps social norms have encouraged people to be tan.  Perhaps it is socially acceptable to wear less clothing, thus exposing more skin to sunlight.  Perhaps an increase in the use of synthetic products, such as laundry detergent, has caused an increase in skin cancer rates.  Perhaps our ability to identify skin cancer has improved.  Perhaps an increase in toxic car emissions and sitting for longer periods of time is... well, you get the idea (I hope).


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Offlinelibertaire
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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: Seuss]
    #10267476 - 05/01/09 07:54 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Perhaps, but perhaps not.  I don't think anyone's made any good point in opposition to the idea, unless you consider "Data schmata!" and "Perhaps..." good points.  Not saying I'm sold on global warming, but I was hoping someone would have some reasonable reasons to oppose it.

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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: Seuss]
    #10267485 - 05/01/09 07:58 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
> Fact or Fiction?

A bit of both.  I tend to fall on the more skeptical side, but I don't rule out the possibility.




Agreed.
But given the potential damage if it's true- fucking up our one and only planet- it seems like being careful is a good idea. Whether it's true or not, since we won't find out until too late.

Like buying insurance, even if don't think you'll ever have to deal with


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Re: Anthrophogenic Global Warming - Fact or Fiction? [Re: libertaire]
    #10268819 - 05/01/09 01:09 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

libertaire said:
This was the one:



Still though, I'm not so sure.  Seems like some pretty concrete evidence none the less.






Graphs are not evidence, and not concrete evidence.


They are the equivalent of me saying "its going to rain".  That's not evidence, that's a conclusion.


Wht you want is the data, means of collecting the data, and the analysis so that you can decide if the conclusions (the pretty pictures) a) are correct and b)are meaningful (though this later point is also largely independant of the study itself)



I think this is one of the things seuss is adressing: the pretty pictures are not evidence and yet people think of them as such.




Besides, the relevant question is what can we do, what should we do, and is any particular proposal meritous (i.e. will it do anything, will it do net good, does it violate folks' rights, et cet)



Its not a counterargument, but i do find it somewhat disgusting that the well off in america sometimes gets indignant that various proposals aren't blindly endorsed regardless of their merits (just so long as they are doing 'something').  These folks don't have to work in the factories that will move overseas- likely producing more emissions then before since if we can't do anything about their emissions or efficiency if they aren't in this country.  They don't care cuz it won't effect them.
 
A guy who can't feed his family doesn't give a shit about a tenth of a degree increase in temp, and the city that is now living in poverty probably isn't too pleased to hear that the plant that used to employ them is now overseas, in response to some  'green' legislation's paradoxical effect, and producing the same (if not more) emissions.

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