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Offlinelonestar2004
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Registered: 10/03/04
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Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide?
    #8984643 - 09/25/08 02:27 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

BROCKPORT, NEW YORK--Pollster John Zogby hinted Thursday (September 25) that he sees a McCain landslide as a real possibility.

According to the Rochester (NY) Democrat and Chronicle:(O) ne of the country’s top pollsters thinks the race will end in an electoral landslide.

John Zogby, president of Zogby International, told a group of businesspeople today that it’s up to Democratic Sen. Barack Obama to convince voters to go with him. If he’s not successful, the country will likely vote for “a comfortable old shoe”, that being Republican Sen. John McCain.

Despite the books Obama has written, Americans are still asking, “Who are you, where are you from?,” Zogby said.

Also on Thursday, Zogby released his latest poll, which found that a slim majority favored McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, over Obama and running mate Joe Biden. A week earlier, Obama and Biden held the lead.

http://www.federalreview.com/2008/09/zogby-predicting-mccain-landslide.htm



So now Zogby and i both predict a McCain landslide! :grin:



Obama has 39 days!!!!


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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OfflineCoaster
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Registered: 05/22/06
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8984784 - 09/25/08 02:57 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points :rolleyes:


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InvisibleArp
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
    #8984792 - 09/25/08 02:59 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

i predict that McCain will win too, no matter what the polls are saying

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OfflineCoaster
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Arp]
    #8984803 - 09/25/08 03:01 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

ya lets just ignore the populous opinion and formulate my own and substitute theirs for mine


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
    #8984812 - 09/25/08 03:04 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

I'd like to hear some further breakdown of his reasoning on that one, because the numbers aren't pointing that way right now.


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Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
    #8984815 - 09/25/08 03:04 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Coaster said:
so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points :rolleyes:





:shrug:

All i know is that people called me clueless when i predicted this months ago, now i have at least have one of the country’s top pollsters on my side. :grin:


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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InvisibleArp
roving mycophagist
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Registered: 04/20/98
Posts: 2,191
Loc: in a van by the river
Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
    #8984841 - 09/25/08 03:10 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

the republicans don't need the majority of the votes in order to win elections. they're that good :discodance:

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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8984853 - 09/25/08 03:11 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

This "top pollster" just destroyed a lot of his credibility by making wild predictions that smack of partisanship.  No wonder his company's polls are leaning against the tide.


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OfflineCoaster
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8984855 - 09/25/08 03:11 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
Quote:

Coaster said:
so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points :rolleyes:





:shrug:

All i know is that people called me clueless when i predicted this months ago, now i have at least have one of the country’s top pollsters on my side. :grin:



lol you and Zogby are both clueless


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ferris]
    #8984860 - 09/25/08 03:12 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Hell, Zogby's only recent poll on the president ticket was last week, and it was an internet poll.  Pffft

Even then, they had Obama ahead by 3 points.


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OfflineAncalagon
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Registered: 07/30/02
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8984872 - 09/25/08 03:14 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
Quote:

Coaster said:
so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points :rolleyes:





:shrug:

All i know is that people called me clueless when i predicted this months ago, now i have at least have one of the country’s top pollsters on my side. :grin:



Would you like to make a small side bet to that effect? I'll even give you odds: McCain wins the popular vote by more than 5% I'll give you $50; Obama wins by more than 5% you give me $25; the margin is closer than 5% we call it even. Do I have a taker?


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?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'

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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ancalagon]
    #8984882 - 09/25/08 03:15 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

You'd have to give me way better odds than that :grin:


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Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Arp]
    #8984893 - 09/25/08 03:17 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Arp said:
the republicans don't need the majority of the votes in order to win elections. they're that good :discodance:





http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/8984888/an/0/page/0


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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OfflineAncalagon
AgnosticLibertarian


Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 15 years, 1 month
Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ferris]
    #8984900 - 09/25/08 03:18 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Ferris said:
You'd have to give me way better odds than that :grin:



I'd have to give anyone sane way better odds than that. You'd have to be nuts to think McCain is going to win by a landslide. And yet Lonestar is lauding his own past prediction to that effect. So let's see if he'll put his money where his mouth is.


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?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Coaster]
    #8984903 - 09/25/08 03:18 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

> so i guess Zogby ignores all the current poles that has obama leading by 6 points :rolleyes:

Must be all those cell phone people... Ron Paul supporters got a nasty dose of polling reality and soon Obama supporters will as well.


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Seuss]
    #8984922 - 09/25/08 03:21 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

I didn't think pollsters called cells, only home phone lines.  I could be wrong on that one though :shrug:


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OfflineCoaster
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Registered: 05/22/06
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Seuss]
    #8984934 - 09/25/08 03:22 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

if fox reported the poll and it has obama wining i really doubt that the poll had a bias non-random sample population


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ferris]
    #8984938 - 09/25/08 03:23 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

538 dot com has the odds at 20p-2p (10-1) Obama landslide vs McCain landslide (landslide = 375+ ev).


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Registered: 10/03/04
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: Ancalagon]
    #8984940 - 09/25/08 03:23 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

how much personal info would i have to give you in such a situation?

After what the Anonymous people did to Palin I'm paranoid.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinePhred
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Re: Zogby Predicting a McCain Landslide? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8984972 - 09/25/08 03:31 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Zogby is the most inaccurate of all the national polling organizations. Their polls are almost always outliers. The organization with the best track record for accuracy (in election races, at least) is Rasmussen. Gallup is decent, too.

This is overall accuracy over time, mind you - it is always possible that on any given poll Zogby might be the most accurate one day, Rasmussen the next, USA Toda the next. But in the aggregate, Rasmussen comes out on top, followed by Gallup. Zogby is pretty much the bottom of the heap (USA Today is pretty awful too, as I recall).

Why anyone bothers paying Zogby to do polls is beyond me.






Phred


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