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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Electoral votes predictions
#8898352 - 09/08/08 08:00 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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My conservative estimate is 284-254 Obama over McCain.
Here's the tool I used to get this pic:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm?loc=interstitialskip
As you can see I threw Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa and New Mexico to Obama and gave Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and some borderline southern states etc to McCain.
Show me what you think. I tried to use historically similar elections and expected voter turnout data to support my picks.
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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Coaster
BaĘżal
Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 33,501
Loc: Deep in the Valley
Last seen: 12 years, 5 months
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Ferris]
#8898426 - 09/08/08 08:14 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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ROFL i looooooooooooooooooooooooove the wEsT sIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIDE
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thedefone
deus ex machina
Registered: 10/06/07
Posts: 1,883
Loc: Gondwana
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Coaster]
#8898716 - 09/08/08 09:03 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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273-267 Obama. Colorado makes the difference.
-------------------- I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.
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Chemy
Jesus is Lord
Registered: 10/05/07
Posts: 6,276
Loc: A Church
Last seen: 14 years, 3 months
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Coaster]
#8898746 - 09/08/08 09:09 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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My prediction
-------------------- Alcoholics Anonymous Narcotics Anonymous Get help, help is free and available 24/7/365. God bless you all and I hope you receive the help you need to turn away from your lives of sin. Mushrooms and drugs make you gay, you can reverse this homosexual condition with rehab, get help! Stop being gay!
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Chemy]
#8898785 - 09/08/08 09:16 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Even Barry Goldwater did better in '64 with 52 votes (he filled McCain's Arizona senator seat before him by the way). Except even Texas voted against him by over 500,000 votes.
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Ferris]
#8898833 - 09/08/08 09:28 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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my own guesstimate is that o'bumble wont even be able to keep all the kerry states from 2004.. more specifically..he will lose MI and NH (ill let him keep OR and PA for now)...this will leave the final count at palin/mccain 314EVs vs 224 for o'bumble/biden...
similarly..my guesstimate for the popular vote is palin/mccain by 6-10%...
at this point in time..i would also guesstimate that control of both houses of congress is a coin-toss...
-------------------- "anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
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thedefone
deus ex machina
Registered: 10/06/07
Posts: 1,883
Loc: Gondwana
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Annapurna1]
#8898846 - 09/08/08 09:30 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Obama hasn't trailed in MI or NH since the end of the primary races.
-------------------- I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.
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Gastronomicus
3-0-G
Registered: 03/31/05
Posts: 9,744
Last seen: 1 day, 15 hours
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Ferris]
#8898928 - 09/08/08 09:43 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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CO has a good chance of going blue this year. I predict Obama gets 280-290 electoral votes. Easy win.
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up LAGM2024
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: thedefone]
#8898950 - 09/08/08 09:46 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
thedefone said: Obama hasn't trailed in MI or NH since the end of the primary races.
all of those polls are pre-palin...
-------------------- "anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
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Gastronomicus
3-0-G
Registered: 03/31/05
Posts: 9,744
Last seen: 1 day, 15 hours
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Annapurna1]
#8898960 - 09/08/08 09:48 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Palin is not going to change things. In fact, she's going to make things worse for the repugs once she actually gets on TV and has to think and speak for herself.
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up LAGM2024
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thedefone
deus ex machina
Registered: 10/06/07
Posts: 1,883
Loc: Gondwana
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Annapurna1]
#8898979 - 09/08/08 09:51 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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-------------------- I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.
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Gastronomicus
3-0-G
Registered: 03/31/05
Posts: 9,744
Last seen: 1 day, 15 hours
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: thedefone]
#8898988 - 09/08/08 09:53 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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She's more like Jesus on a Snowmobile. Speaking of Jesus and Sarah Palin, looks like someone's pastor got out to the media. Whoops!
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up LAGM2024
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Annapurna1]
#8899023 - 09/08/08 10:00 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Annapurna1 said: at this point in time..i would also guesstimate that control of both houses of congress is a coin-toss...
My quick opinion on that is that the republicans will have the advantage in the senate and that the dems will have the advantage for the house, although with every seat going up in the house, it's much less predictable.
A couple quick stats: the dems have a 31/435 lead from the last election, and importantly, 6 dem incumbents are retiring as compared to 26 republican incumbents retiring. I'm not going to go further into the math on this one, I'll leave it to the experts.
As for the senate, the republicans have 18 incumbents and 5 retirements (for 23), and the dems have 12 incumbents. Luckily for the dems, a lot of those republicans may flip, but that's a must and they would have to hold onto all their close calls.
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Gastronomicus]
#8899179 - 09/08/08 10:23 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Gastronomicus said: She's more like Jesus on a Snowmobile. Speaking of Jesus and Sarah Palin, looks like someone's pastor got out to the media. Whoops!
welcome to the taliban...BTW wasnt children of the corn based on the pentecostal church???...
-------------------- "anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
Edited by Annapurna1 (09/08/08 10:46 PM)
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Gastronomicus
3-0-G
Registered: 03/31/05
Posts: 9,744
Last seen: 1 day, 15 hours
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Annapurna1]
#8899205 - 09/08/08 10:27 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Probably. Bitch scares me more then some corn kids do
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up LAGM2024
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thedefone
deus ex machina
Registered: 10/06/07
Posts: 1,883
Loc: Gondwana
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Annapurna1]
#8899211 - 09/08/08 10:27 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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I was seriously hoping for Palin on a snowmobile.
-------------------- I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.
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whattheheck
Chief Love Lover
Registered: 06/01/07
Posts: 7,380
Loc: Denver Colorado
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: thedefone]
#8899989 - 09/09/08 12:59 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yeah, but guys, she's HOT
-------------------- A society whose whole idea is to eliminate suffering and bring it's members the greatest amount of comfort and pleasure is doomed to be destroyed -Thomas Merton
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 13 years, 1 day
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: Ferris]
#8902803 - 09/09/08 03:58 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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McCain will win Nevada and Colorado, and will probably win Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
and the big surprises, Washington and Oregon!
LANDSLIDE!
356-182
anyone disagree?
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Gastronomicus
3-0-G
Registered: 03/31/05
Posts: 9,744
Last seen: 1 day, 15 hours
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: lonestar2004]
#8902991 - 09/09/08 04:40 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yes. Everyone with a sane view on how the state by state polls are coming out.
-------------------- Make my Funk the P Funk, I wants to get Funked up LAGM2024
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hamandcheese
Sandwich
Registered: 06/02/08
Posts: 12,530
Loc: Next Level
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Re: Electoral votes predictions [Re: lonestar2004]
#8903456 - 09/09/08 06:09 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Its off to the HOUSE baby.
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