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Invisiblemofo
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An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth
    #8359792 - 05/03/08 11:44 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I've often heard the argument that even if there are other advanced races in the cosmos, the chances that they would ever find earth would be slim to none, since space is so vast and there are so many stars. So I decided to make a few assumptions and do some math based on them.

Astronomers estimate there are approximately 400,000,000,000 stars in the Milky Way Galaxy

Of those, about 75% are Red Dwarfs, believed by many scientists to hold little potential for life.

That leaves 100,000,000,000 stars deemed to possibly harbor life, Sol among them.

Wormholes, bends in timespace, are currently accepted as a theoretically possible phenomenon, although they have never been observed.

If we assume it is possible to fabricate a wormhole and send a craft through it either instantaneously or very rapidly, and assume a civilization has 180,000 such craft, and assume that they can explore a solar system a week with each craft, it would only take them about 10,700 years to visit and document all 100 billion target stars in the Milky Way.


I know those are a lot of assumptions to make, so allow me to throw a few more variables in. If, under similar conditions, life does generally evolve at the same approximate rate as earth, then there may be races in the galaxy that are FAR more evolved than ours, since there are stars, such as Zeta Reticuli that are several billion years older than Sol. Keep in mind too that in that amount of time, we can't even really fathom how much further technology may develop, or how much more prolific a civilization may become. Maybe we would be talking about 180 trillion wormhole craft rather than 180 thousand.

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InvisibleCameron
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: mofo]
    #8359888 - 05/04/08 12:11 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

The possibilities are only limited to our imaginations. I wouldn't exactly call it an argument, though. It's all speculation/maybes/what-ifs. It's fun to think about, though.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: mofo]
    #8359909 - 05/04/08 12:25 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

> So I decided to make a few assumptions and do some math based on them.

You forgot to assume that time exists and take into account the likelihood that two intelligent lifeforms develop at the same time over the age of the entire universe. You also forgot to factor in the likelihood of alien life being intelligent.


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InvisibleDieCommie


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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: mofo]
    #8359967 - 05/04/08 12:54 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Adding in what Seuss said, your basically making a guess at a form of the drake equation. From my guesses at drakes equation I get 10 to 20 thousand species. Im pretty optimistic as to the average length that species are technological.

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OfflineGinseng1
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: DieCommie]
    #8360140 - 05/04/08 02:13 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I have come to the basic conclusion that if there is an ET presence, it's not that they ever *found* us. They found a rock, and created the conditions suitable for life. In fact, astronomers have already found Earth-like planets. What does this tell us?

Conditions for life are so damn precise. There are just too many damn variables and probabilities to even fuck with. In accordance to the ET story, I have come to understand that life on Earth was no chance. It is a design.

A tornado just can't blow over the table on contents and build a house with internet and running water.

Too perfect.

As for the space and time warps... yes I believe that we understand very little about space + time, in contrast to what is. Much less how we even got here.

Edited by Ginseng1 (05/04/08 02:17 AM)

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Invisibledeimya
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: Ginseng1]
    #8362103 - 05/04/08 05:36 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

So who "designed" your ETs in that case ? Another bunch of ETs before them ? This is the exact same thing as intelligent design, and thus fails in almost the exact same way at "sciencehood". My bet is more in the camp that our universe is hardwired to generate life through the arbitrary creation of robust yet simple dissipative systems. From ergodicity to life if you which. Ergodicity is an unproved hypothesis but it is so damn good and sound an hypothesis that you can equivalently rest the whole of thermodynamics on it without too much serious problems (as of yet). I'm going off-topic but there you go.

Ergodicity is the hypothesis that given a system and enough time, the system will explore it's state space almost everywhere. This in itself could be enough, read about Boltzmann brain paradox for a teaser. It basically put forward the paradox that considering our universe as a statistical fluctuation in which there's many living entities, it would be much more likely for you to be in a universe that is a statistical fluctuation with only you as a living entity. Paradox aside, the idea that we might be a statistical fluctuation gone wrong is quite compelling. You don't need to start as a fluctuation with an already low amount of disorder but just enough dissipative systems in it that are able to locally create a little order by dissipating an equivalently amount of disorder. The arguable possibility that our current universe expands at such a speed that the potential maximal entropy contained in it grows faster than the actual generation of entropy renders the heat death argument moot. Said otherwise, the rate at which the universe expands makes its theoretical maximal entropy increase at a rate higher than the projected real one, i.e. there's always more and more room for disorder such that disorder gets "diluted" at a rate higher than the rate at which it is created. As I said somewhere else, the universe is like an expanding playroom full of Lego, where a Legokid can try everything it wants without ever worrying about cleaning up after its past mess. And the Legokid is probably made of Lego also. And it probably makes other Legokids out of all this also.

To make an analogy with Conway's Game of Life, the universe endlessly explores different starting conditions and every once in a while in a region somewhere a few gliders, toads, pulsars and the like appears for a varying amount of time until they can no longer sustain themselves amongst the surrounding noise. The equivalent to Boltzmann brain paradox would be to notice that it is much more likely for a lone glider to emerge than it is for a complete scene with billions of gliders and pulsar to emerge at once, and therefore your existence is much more likely to be a lone glider than a glider on a planet with 6 billions other gliders. My suspicion is that once in a while, the universe stumbles upon a few robust gliders which can by themselves create a whole scene, that is life creating gliders. From chaos you emerge, to chaos you go back, but not necessarily quickly, or maybe ever.

Also, this "Game of Life" is not necessarily going on on our equivalent level of physical understanding. If might go on at any level or in the laws themselves, etc.

Edited by deimya (05/04/08 06:02 PM)

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Invisiblemofo
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: deimya]
    #8363753 - 05/05/08 12:44 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
> So I decided to make a few assumptions and do some math based on them.

You forgot to assume that time exists and take into account the likelihood that two intelligent lifeforms develop at the same time over the age of the entire universe. You also forgot to factor in the likelihood of alien life being intelligent.




I meant to address this too actually, but I forgot. The argument is often made that the reason we don't see evidence of intelligent life is that by the time the next one arises, the last one is long gone. Species come and go all the time after all. Look at the dinosaurs. They've been gone for millions of years now and yet they were some of the most successful species of animals in the history of the earth.

I would say though that when you get to the level of intelligent beings, we're talking about a whole new ballgame. Its different because we have a capacity for self-determinism not seen in any other species on earth. If the dinosaurs had our intelligence and technology, they may well have been able to deflect the asteroid that ultimately did them in. Likewise, I believe in the not too distant future, human beings will be establishing permanent colonies on other celestial bodies and in interplanetary space. This should further protect us from any potential cataclysms. I would expect that any other rational, intelligent beings elsewhere in the universe would do the same, and therefore I don't believe we can assume that such beings would fall victim to extinctions quite so easily as our friends the dinosaurs. When you think about it, there is no limit to how long such a species could exist, so long as they can grow and evolve faster than the dumb luck of rogue asteroids and make it to other stars faster than the extinguishing of their own sun.

Quote:

DieCommie said:
Adding in what Seuss said, your basically making a guess at a form of the drake equation. From my guesses at drakes equation I get 10 to 20 thousand species. Im pretty optimistic as to the average length that species are technological.




I don't know where you guys are getting this likelihood of life and drake equation stuff, I didn't really touch on that at all. Many people who play around with the Drake equation come up with figures in the tens or hundreds of thousands for estimates of intelligent races in the galaxy, and others (rare earthers) say they're probably much rarer.

What I'm saying even if there were only a few other intelligent civilizations in the galaxy or even just one, there's a good chance it would be more evolved than ours and perhaps drastically more evolved. If such a race exists, I say they would most likely have documented all the significant stars in the galaxy eons ago. Whether or not they would keep returning to earth is anyone's guess but you would think it would be among the more interesting planets out there.

In response to these theories of the origins of life, I don't believe aliens necessarily landed and created all this directly, but I do think the theory of panspermia is very plausible, given what we know about the durability of spores. If spores that have been suspended in amber for several million years can be reanimated, it isn't that much of a stretch to think they could be reanimated after drifting across interstellar space. Of course, this doesn't address the question of the origin of the spores, but it does allow for the possibility of a universe teeming with life even if its actual synthesis is a very rare event.

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OfflineBrainChemistry
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: mofo]
    #8363779 - 05/05/08 01:00 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Taking a page from Star trek, intelligent aliens may realize the potential damage they would be doing to a civilization by exposing themselves to them. If you think about it, what would humans have thought if we discovered aliens during the dark ages? What if an alien spacecraft landed in 1000 BC? Our entire planet would look up to them as gods, as we surely would have no understanding of any of their technology or abilities. Theres no telling how this would effect the scientific development of humans, i would think it would most likely hinder our ability for creative thought simply because we would no longer be searching for answers.

But look at us now...we've discovered so much on our own that we are being able to explore the galaxy for ourselves, and if we were to discover an alien species we could probably learn from them. Maybe the intelligent life that exists in our galaxy (assuming its their) is waiting to expose itself until we've reached a certain point of development.


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OfflineVisionary Tools
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: Ginseng1]
    #8364000 - 05/05/08 04:10 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Ginseng1 said:
I have come to the basic conclusion that if there is an ET presence, it's not that they ever *found* us. They found a rock, and created the conditions suitable for life. In fact, astronomers have already found Earth-like planets. What does this tell us?

Conditions for life are so damn precise. There are just too many damn variables and probabilities to even fuck with. In accordance to the ET story, I have come to understand that life on Earth was no chance. It is a design.

A tornado just can't blow over the table on contents and build a house with internet and running water.

Too perfect.

As for the space and time warps... yes I believe that we understand very little about space + time, in contrast to what is. Much less how we even got here.




This argument almost has merit, except then you have to explain how things were made, and who made them.

Now, following recent realisation I feel it's more likely then not that there is an equivalent to gods that make new universes and dictate the rules inside it. As such, evolution is a valid means for creating life.

Conditions for life are not too damn precise. We haven't got any way to prove it now, but there may be life in the water moons of Saturn and Jupiter (Io and Europa?), there may even be life in the gas giants themselves, such a chemical soup could give life to airborne bacteria, maybe even new life that can't be classified as plant, fungi or animal.

Quote:


A tornado just can't blow over the table on contents and build a house with internet and running water.




No it can't. But consider how houses evolved. You got your basic caves, then caves with fires. Then people building shelters out of leaves and sticks, then wattle and daub, tents, bigger houses with stones, and chimneys to vent smoke. Running water, sewers. All of it was a gradual process, an area for improving was seen, and worked on. It wasn't like humanity up to a certain point was stupid and incapable of anything, then the next day were building houses and laying down telephone cables.

Likewise, the idea that everything was just made like someone makes a cake or builds something out of lego seems childish to me. Maybe it does happen in some other universe, but that one would be boring if there's no progress. Evolution is self regulating and self improving, and it's just as likely that some intelligence started it off, than it happening spontaneously.

And yes, I have no way to reconcile that there must have been a beginning somewhere. But I don't know what it is. Maybe time loops, maybe life created itself. Which leads me to another question. Why is there anything?


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OfflineGinseng1
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: deimya]
    #8365145 - 05/05/08 02:00 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

deimya said:
So who "designed" your ETs in that case ? Another bunch of ETs before them ? This is the exact same thing as intelligent design, and thus fails in almost the exact same way at "sciencehood".




I agree.

It is difficult for me to articulate myself in a way in which I can really try to get my point across, but check it...

I do not think life originated on this planet. I think it originated in another time and another place. Wherever life originated, was certainly not here. We would have to go back to the rock where life truly originated in all it's swirling chaos for science to give us more answers, and expose the lack of intelligent design where the first forms of life were naturaly conceived. I doubt that planet still exists. I believe that our ideas of 'fleeing' this planet and finding another home has already been conceived and achieved.

Perhaps life originated in some other star system in another galaxy. Perhaps when the universe was a little warmer. Maybe in a previous universe cycle.

The Earth-like conditions may have been introduced to this rock, and then us. Which would go a long way in explaining where our particular evolution stems from, humanoid ETs, UFOs, witness testimony, Earth-like planets being found by astronomers, creationism and the world bibles, etc...

Yes, science will most likely expose the lack of intelligent design in our purest form, but as far as integrating the ET/UFO phenomena into our little fractal of existance, we have to assume that life and the root genetic codes are not native to Earth.

I think life on Earth is simply an extension of life that originated somewhere else in this universe. I don't think we can ever find our true origins.


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Flowing through beginningless time since time without beginning...

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OfflineGinseng1
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: Visionary Tools]
    #8365168 - 05/05/08 02:10 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Visionary Tools said:
This argument almost has merit, except then you have to explain how things were made, and who made them.

Conditions for life are not too damn precise. We haven't got any way to prove it now, but there may be life in the water moons of Saturn and Jupiter (Io and Europa?), there may even be life in the gas giants themselves, such a chemical soup could give life to airborne bacteria, maybe even new life that can't be classified as plant, fungi or animal.





Right on. I agree with alot of what you say.

What I meant is that conditions have to be damn precise for life that is similar to ours. That is, ETs that have been described as humanoid, who can breathe our air. The first Earth-like planet may have come to be by chance. Multiple Earth-like planets... well now that smells to me like intelligence might have had a hand in this...

I'm pretty sure you guys might have guessed it that I believe in aliens, and yes, humanoid aliens with fingers and eyes and all that shit. I will tell you right now that I have seen two little guys. I can't get into nor can I prove it, but perhaps one day science could tell me what really is going on. That I am schizo like the rest of 'em, and that there is no possible way there intelligent humanoid aliens exist, or that they really do, and that we just gettin' the party started! Woooo!!


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InvisibleAtheist
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: Ginseng1]
    #8365279 - 05/05/08 02:44 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

you sound confused

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OfflineGinseng1
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: Atheist]
    #8366335 - 05/05/08 08:03 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

That is so nice of you.

Did I atleast get my point across?


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InvisibleAtheist
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: Ginseng1]
    #8366827 - 05/05/08 09:58 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

yeah and i dont agree with it

you should probably read about the history of this planet from a BOOK and not your imagination

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OfflineGinseng1
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: Atheist]
    #8367143 - 05/05/08 11:13 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

All we got is theory man. Don't try and tell me there is a fucking book with scientific backing that disproves the theory I have outlined (that is not singular to my imagination, btw), because as of yet we don't know shit about it. It's all theory.

I'm glad you atleast understand it.


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InvisibleDieCommie


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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: Ginseng1]
    #8367148 - 05/05/08 11:14 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Its only theory if there is a large amount of evidence to support it. Otherwise, its just an hypothesis.

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OfflineGinseng1
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: DieCommie]
    #8367190 - 05/05/08 11:23 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I guess since none of the current evidence for an intelligent ET presence is hard enough, then what I outlined shall remain as an hypothesis.


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InvisibleEgo Death
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: DieCommie]
    #8367980 - 05/06/08 06:53 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Theres plenty of evidence for ET visitations.  The whole picture is what is ignored.

Theres been so many separate cases of alien abduction, many leaving physical evidence and multiple independent corroborating witnesses yet this is not considered evidence?

If you look at the whole picture ET presence is the only answer that makes any sense.  People just pick on individual elements and never come up with a rational answer.

After all these years of debating with people on the net the best answers people have come up with are hoax, misidentification and sleep paralysis (or they just resort to ad hom :frown: ).

These 2 answers completely ignore the facts:
Most abductions do not happen while a person is asleep
Many have been accompanied by physical trace such as scars, burns and even radiation poisoning (see Steven michelak UFO incident)
Many abductees have passed lie detector tests
Many UFO craft are sighted by pilots, caught by multiple separate radar stations and break all the international laws on no fly zones
Landing sites have been tested and found to have significant rises in radiation and changes in soil structure etc
Several NASA astronauts and scientists believe ET presence is here because of the evidence they have seen; Gordon Cooper, Jack Casher
Many government and science researchers started skeptical but became believers once they researched the phenomena (Allen Hynek, Nick Pope)

The disbelievers will pick on one bit of the whole puzzle, come out with an illogical answer and then disregard the entire phenomena based on that.  Most people pass judgment based on a common consensus belief that aliens are a subject to be ridiculed (most pilots don't report there experiences until there careers are over because it would be professional suicide).  Thats not science, thats lack of research or ignorance.

Its true theres no solid proof.  It would take an alien and its ship to be captured and analysed by the scientific world for it to become "proved".

Anybody that can explain away all this by claiming hoax is either unresearched and thus cannot pass judgment or extremely ignorant.  ET presence on Earth is extremely likely and the only logical answer in the face of all the evidence.

http://ufos.about.com/od/aliensalienabduction/a/bestabductions.htm

Edited by Ego Death (05/06/08 07:01 AM)

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: Ego Death]
    #8368003 - 05/06/08 07:09 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

> and multiple independent corroborating witnesses yet this is not considered evidence?

Unfortunately, no, it is not. Imagine that there is some strange cloud that looks like a dragon (so much so, that you cannot tell that it is a cloud rather than a dragon). Thousands of people from all over the world see this cloud and mistakenly call it a dragon. Is it a dragon just because a lot of people saw a dragon?

A real example: everybody once knew that the Earth was the center of the universe. It was obvious when looking at the stars, or looking at the sun, that everything revolved around the earth. Just because a lot of people witness something doesn't mean that their interpretation of what they witnessed is correct.

I'm not debating the existence of alien visitors... only trying to show the fallacy of argumentum ad populum in your statement.


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Invisiblejohnm214
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Re: An argument for the possibility of extraterrestrial visitation on earth [Re: Ginseng1]
    #8368085 - 05/06/08 08:31 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Ginseng1 said:

What I meant is that conditions have to be damn precise for life that is similar to ours. That is, ETs that have been described as humanoid, who can breathe our air. The first Earth-like planet may have come to be by chance. Multiple Earth-like planets... well now that smells to me like intelligence might have had a hand in this...




What else would they breathe? There's not too many things they could ingest to run a metabolism that are easily obtainable, i.e. in an atmosphere or something.

You've got oxygen, sulfer, and that's about it. There are surely more exotic respiratory models in bacteria, but I don't see how anything dependant upon such things as iron or whatever could evolve beyond sea life where the oxidizer is in solution with them. Maybe they could eat it or something and develop a mechanism to store a metal or something that they use to oxidize nutrients in place of atmospheric respiration? It would be intersting thought experiment and you'd have to have an interesting excretory system to shit out iron salts, but I suppose it could happen.

I guess they could also breath hydrogen and reduceit something in their diet. Would be the oposite of how things are done here on earth, to my knowledge, but I guess it could be done.

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