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InvisibleAsante
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The US Dollar in 2017
    #7309944 - 08/19/07 09:01 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

What do you think the US Dollar you got today will be worth ten years from now.. measured in todays dollars?

Does a $10 bill you hold today still buy the same amount of stuff like it does today?

.
What will the 2017 dollar be worth in todays dollars?
You may choose only one
Where does the US economy probably stand in 2017?
You may choose only one
How convinced are you it will be like this?
You may choose only one


Votes accepted from (08/19/07 09:01 AM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Asante]
    #7309965 - 08/19/07 09:14 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

$1, About the same as now, Very Certain

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InvisibleAsante
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Redstorm]
    #7310028 - 08/19/07 09:44 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

In the last 35 years, after the Dollar was taken off the last remnant of a Gold/Silver standard, there has been a sixfold decrease in value of the Dollar.

What makes you so sure it will hold, contrary to the trend?


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Asante]
    #7310189 - 08/19/07 10:50 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:


In the last 35 years, after the Dollar was taken off the last remnant of a Gold/Silver standard, there has been a sixfold decrease in value of the Dollar.




I wasn't aware of this. I just did some quick research, and the same thing is true of the British Pound. One British Pound in 1965 is equivalent to 12.86 Pounds of today's money. I'm not so sure this has to do with the gold standard or the higher standards and prices of living (See: $3/gallon gas).

I was going to try to do the same thing with euros, but I couldn't find any data on it.

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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Asante]
    #7310273 - 08/19/07 11:20 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Inflation (the decrease of the value of a currency) has been averaging about 3.5% a year. Therefore, if this inflation rate holds steady it is safe to assume that a 2007 dollar will be worth about 65 cents in 2017.

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OfflinePhred
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #7310323 - 08/19/07 11:35 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Inflation (the decrease of the value of a currency) has been averaging about 3.5% a year.




Over what time frame? It has been substantially less than that in the United States for at least the last five years... probably closer to ten years now.



Phred


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Asante]
    #7310335 - 08/19/07 11:40 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

A new currency after hyperinflation.



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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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OfflinePhred
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Phred]
    #7310338 - 08/19/07 11:41 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

To be precise, it averaged 2.54% annually in the previous decade January 1, 1997 - December 31, 2006. See

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx


Phred


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #7310353 - 08/19/07 11:49 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Inflation (the decrease of the value of a currency) has been averaging about 3.5% a year.





Thats what they want you to believe. It all depends on how you calculate things like inflation and cost of living.

I think double that, 7% true inflation, would be closer to the mark. I spoke (like, offline) a financial adviser who made a strong case for the real figure being around 5-7% in both Europe and the USA.

Over the past decade, gold has doubled in euros and tripled in dollars. Or in other words: where it comes to buying gold (the commodity and store of value) the euro lost half its value and the dollar lost three times its value. Gold is still gold, so what happened to money?
Play with these numbers for a while.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Phred]
    #7310365 - 08/19/07 11:52 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Depends upon how you calculate it. The numbers are manipulated to hide the real inflation rate which is probably closer to 10 percent.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: zorbman]
    #7310372 - 08/19/07 11:55 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Ten percent being the dangerzone for a sudden hyperinflation eruption.


*notes the bullion coin in Zorbman's avatar*


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Asante]
    #7310389 - 08/19/07 11:59 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Yes, take a look at the CRB index- the most widely recognized measure of global commodities markets:



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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Asante]
    #7310403 - 08/19/07 12:02 PM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

*notes the bullion coin in Zorbman's avatar*




I have been buying gold and silver coins for years and have no plans to sell them anytime soon. Actually I have far more silver than gold because I expect silver to appreciate much more than gold. But gold makes for a better picture. :smile:


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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InvisibleAsante
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: zorbman]
    #7310529 - 08/19/07 12:41 PM (16 years, 7 months ago)
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Yup, the commodities bullmarket has begun.. or has it?

Quote:

I have been buying gold and silver coins for years and have no plans to sell them anytime soon.




Right on! I hope you made a killing in 2001. You'd better hold on to them until around said 2017, when the bullmarket is approaching its predicted end.

Quote:

Actually I have far more silver than gold because I expect silver to appreciate much more than gold.




I see it similar, but differently. Re-reading the Cheuvreux report (attached) in the light of what I've learned in the mean time.. Perhaps gold isn't moving at all. Perhaps commodities are entering a bullmarket situation because the dollar is going to hell in a.. basket of currencies.

Did you notice how the market simply absorbed the recent gold dumpings? Not nearly the jolts like when the UK central bank was bombing the gold price in 2001. I think demand is up, WAY up. There's people who wait for the thunder and there's people who took action when they saw storm clouds gathering in the distance. Keep your cool even when the price spikes. No use buying a ticket for a sinking ship.



I think gold will mostly stay put, but will also be higher appreciated. I agree with you that Silver is where the action is. Palladium is a dead fish and Platinum already had quite some motion.

Its a beautiful coin aye, your Avatar. However I believe the US Government will make such an utter mess in the world economy that I wouldn't want to hold gold stamped with US markings. (just like I wouldn't want a Krugerrand from the Apartheid era) However if you live in the USA all this is ofcourse different.


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OfflinePhred
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: zorbman]
    #7310539 - 08/19/07 12:44 PM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

The numbers are manipulated to hide the real inflation rate which is probably closer to 10 percent.




Nonsense. It's impossible to hide that much inflation. All people have to do is look at old newspaper ads and compare prices then vs prices now. There's no way that prices go up ten per cent each year. Not even close. They did in he Carter years, though... and by more than just ten per cent annually! But those days are long gone and there's no indication they'll be returning any time soon.







Phred


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Phred]
    #7310569 - 08/19/07 12:54 PM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Nonsense. It's impossible to hide that much inflation. All people have to do is look at old newspaper ads and compare prices then vs prices now. There's no way that prices go up ten per cent each year. Not even close.





Such changes don't go evenly, or all at once. Stores increase their prices gradually. The house market, mortgages and rent gradually adjust to higher levels.

Even if inflation stopped today it will take months to years until the country is fully adjusted to the inflation level of that day.

But inflation isn't going to stop.. The US Gov't is too busy spending money, and part of that money used to be paper and ink yesterday, nothing backing it whatsoever.

But lets assume that 5-7% inflation and poll the Americans:

.
AMERICANS! Do you feel several things have doubled in price since the year 2000?
You may choose only one


Votes accepted from (08/19/07 12:54 PM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Asante]
    #7310615 - 08/19/07 01:02 PM (16 years, 7 months ago)

When I see paranoid rants like this, I don't know whether to feel sorry for the paranoid people or to laugh at them. It reminds me of a time years ago when I used to beat up my brain with beer and benzidrine and then rant about the sky falling. Before that, we used to listen to a friend of mine rant about chemical waste being everywhere and everything (economy etc.) coming crashing down and other imagined horror stories of his. Quitting drugs stopped these anti-social and reputation destroying rants. After 35 years they still make fun of me because of the burnt out stupid things I'd say because of my mariuana and LSD usage in the 70's, then came the amphetamines and some people still hate me for that. I'm a freak! I'm a druggie!!! Look out! He's crazy! He's on crack! Everywhere they still say it about me and talk behind my back.

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Asante]
    #7310728 - 08/19/07 01:31 PM (16 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Such changes don't go evenly, or all at once. Stores increase their prices gradually. The house market, mortgages and rent gradually adjust to higher levels.




Yep. The CPI ( Consumer Price Index ) has been calculated in such a way as to reduce reported inflation. In 1996 the Boskin commission, among other things, introduced geometric weighting which gave a lower weighting to items rising in price and a higher weighting to items falling in price.

When they were done the inflation rate was lowered 1.1%

It's magic!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boskin_Commission

At one time CPI was calculated using a basket of goods. When steak got too expensive they substituted hamburger. Then they took energy prices out. What a joke. Whenever something gets too expensive they take it out. I guess when hamburger gets too expensive they'll go to dog food.

John Williams is a Dartmouth educated economic advisor to Fortune 500 companies: "As long ago as the Kennedy Administration the government believed people would rather hear good news, even if it’s false. Unemployment statistics were easy. First they created the ‘discouraged worker’ category and counted them separately. Then under Clinton, they quit counting them at all. Upwards of 5 million people were no longer unemployed.

Both the Clinton and Bush Administrations have continued to tinker with ‘hedonic adjustments’ and other dubious offsets in the CPI to mask the real rate of inflation.”

Based on today’s numbers, Williams believes that the current inflation rate is approximately 10%, given the way inflation was measured prior to the 1990’s.

http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/archives


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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InvisibleAsante
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: zorbman]
    #7312114 - 08/19/07 08:39 PM (16 years, 7 months ago)





Yup, there is a tendency to twist numbers to one's advantage, and none more guilty than the powers that be.

Zorbman: In Gold We Trust :thumbup:


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: The US Dollar in 2017 [Re: Asante]
    #7313060 - 08/20/07 03:18 AM (16 years, 7 months ago)

im reading a strong desire in many of these responses to see the poop hit the fan on the neocons.. and the economy in shambles as a result.. within the next 10 years...i share this desire wholeheartedly..but i wouldnt bet the farm on it actually happening...to this end..we take a closer look at this curve ..



i admit that im eyeballing this..but the overall shape of the curve looks like y=exp(-x)..which drops off rapidly at first..but at an ever-slowing pace...this means that if the "fan" is at y=0..then the poop never quite reaches it...however..there are also some large deviations from the curve..(ie the 1914-18 peribellum).. and the neocons might just get careless enough to create another one.. which in turn might just be big enough to push us under that line...

so where does x=0 fall on this curve??... maybe around here somewhere..when the coins that would later be called "dollars" were created...the link also guesstimates a 550:4 (137.5:1) devaluation of the british pound since that time (same for the dollar..since exchange rates were fixed by metal content) vs the 25:1 devaluation of the dollar from 1900.. which is consistent y=exp(-x)...BTW..the first true "dollars" (of the nice neat roundish kind shown at the bottom of the link) were minted in 1733...

Quote:

zorbman said:
Depends upon how you calculate it. The numbers are manipulated to hide the real inflation rate which is probably closer to 10 percent.




for example..if productivity increases by 10% and the CPI increases 2% (these arent the actual numbers).. then it means that the median worker "feels" an inflation rate of 12%..because (s)he is working 10% harder to offset the 12% inflation rate to 2%...


--------------------


"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

Edited by Annapurna1 (08/20/07 04:02 AM)

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