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OfflineKickleM
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Taiwan's election
    #28634491 - 01/25/24 01:04 PM (3 months, 21 days ago)

Kind of surprised no one is talking about this. Am I alone in thinking this was a significant geopolitical event?


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Why shouldn't the truth be stranger than fiction?
Fiction, after all, has to make sense. -- Mark Twain

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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: Kickle]
    #28634501 - 01/25/24 01:12 PM (3 months, 21 days ago)

..... it seems China has been successful in isolating Taiwan by buying out/ convincing Tawians typical allies to bow down to the Yuan.....seems several have already jumped ship. Although diplomatic and economic retaliation, it does beckon the possibility of armed conflict.


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“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Edited by SirTripAlot (01/25/24 01:12 PM)

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InvisiblemushboyMDiscord
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #28634509 - 01/25/24 01:24 PM (3 months, 21 days ago)

With ukraine and now the election imo make it clear to china that forced unification would be a blood bath and they’d rule over ashes and insurgency for generations.

Edited by mushboy (01/25/24 01:32 PM)

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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: mushboy]
    #28634538 - 01/25/24 01:48 PM (3 months, 21 days ago)

I hope that's a check, the other being trade...it probably at the top of the reasons why war has not occured.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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OnlineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: mushboy]
    #28635286 - 01/26/24 06:53 AM (3 months, 20 days ago)

Quote:

mushboy said:
With ukraine and now the election imo make it clear to china that forced unification would be a blood bath and they’d rule over ashes and insurgency for generations.




Not sure even the U.S. has the wherewithal to fight wars on every continent simultaneously.


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Offlinegww
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28635343 - 01/26/24 07:56 AM (3 months, 20 days ago)

Not sure that the us fighting was the point.  The invaded being forced to give up when they don't want to leaves ashes seems to be the point.

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OnlineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: gww]
    #28635371 - 01/26/24 08:21 AM (3 months, 20 days ago)

Why do Americans think all of our vassal states are comprised of hardened rebels that want to defend our interests to the last man?

Even if you take the most favorable interpretation of US polling, roughly 1/3rd of Taiwanese favor US relations to mainland China relations. But our media would have you think that 99% of Taiwan would take up arms against the CPC to defend US semiconductor interests lol


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InvisiblemushboyMDiscord
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28635492 - 01/26/24 10:34 AM (3 months, 20 days ago)

The us fighting was my point.

We have said we would not put boots in ukraine. Look at the devastation to the russian military(and ukraine) and we are not even present just supplying.

We have said we would defend taiwan. It would be a slaughter:shrug:

Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
Not sure even the U.S. has the wherewithal to fight wars on every continent simultaneously.




wouldn’t surprise me if that’s exactly what Xi is tinkering with.

Would the US extend itself? That’s one dangerous gamble that historically has never worked out for the party making the wager.

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: mushboy]
    #28635519 - 01/26/24 11:14 AM (3 months, 20 days ago)

Didn't Xi just endorse Trump? That's basically all he needs for the invasion to go through.

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OnlineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: Kryptos]
    #28635733 - 01/26/24 03:22 PM (3 months, 20 days ago)

China knows everything is going their way, so they’re playing the geopolitical equivalent of the prevent defense.

The West can only imagine Xi sees every problem as a nail because all we’ve ever known of world leaders is their propensity to identify as hammers.

Makes zero sense to “invade” Taiwan. That’s just what WE want to happen.


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OfflineKickleM
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28635834 - 01/26/24 04:25 PM (3 months, 20 days ago)

Well I don't think everything is going China's way. That's not to say everything is going the way of the US either of course. It's very fluid. China would have greatly preferred the KMT party to win or have majority in the legislature. That doesn't mean there wasn't a plan in place for this outcome, especially given the way it was polling heading into the election.

The US obviously has long term ambitions to move away from any sort of dependency on Taiwan. But short term there is a heavy investment in not losing the golden goose. And that investment is clearly impacting China's policies. Which in turn impacts US policies. And the dynamism continues.

The ways the US has structured the underwater fiber lines and communications around China are fascinating. Espionage is crazy in the modern era.


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Why shouldn't the truth be stranger than fiction?
Fiction, after all, has to make sense. -- Mark Twain

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Taiwan's election [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28636290 - 01/26/24 10:34 PM (3 months, 19 days ago)

Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
China knows everything is going their way, so they’re playing the geopolitical equivalent of the prevent defense.

The West can only imagine Xi sees every problem as a nail because all we’ve ever known of world leaders is their propensity to identify as hammers.

Makes zero sense to “invade” Taiwan. That’s just what WE want to happen.




It makes lots of sense to get access to Taiwanese chip fabrication technology and equipment. The stuff that is made by a single danish or Belgian or one of those small ass not quite Germany country's company. Which is very friendly with the US government, and fully complying with the sanctions against China, preventing China from getting fancy chips.

Whether that requires invasion or not depends on the diplomatic and economic stage.

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