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InvisibleveggieM

Registered: 07/25/04
Posts: 17,504
Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds
    #12862374 - 07/07/10 02:58 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds
July 7, 2010 - newsroomamerica.com

Legalizing the production and distribution of marijuana in California could cut the price of the drug by as much as 80 percent and increase consumption, according to a new study by the nonprofit RAND Corporation.

While the state Board of Equalization has estimated taxing legal marijuana could raise more than $1 billion in revenue, the RAND study cautions that any potential revenue could be dramatically higher or lower based on a number of factors, including the level of taxation, the amount of tax evasion and the response by the federal government.

Past research provides solid evidence that marijuana consumption goes up when prices go down, but the magnitude of the consumption increase cannot be predicted because prices will fall to levels below those ever studied, researchers say. Consumption also might rise because of non-price effects such as advertising or a reduction in stigma, researchers say.

In addition to uncertainty about the taxes levied and evaded, researchers do not know how users will respond to such a large drop in price. Even under a scenario with high taxes ($50 per ounce) and a moderate rate of tax evasion (25 percent), researchers cannot rule out consumption increases of 50 percent to 100 percent, and possibly even larger. If prevalence increased by 100 percent, marijuana use in California would be close to the prevalence levels recorded in the late 1970s.

The analysis, prepared by the RAND Drug Policy Research Center, was conducted in an effort to objectively outline the key issues that voters and legislators should consider as California weighs marijuana legalization.

"There is considerable uncertainty about the impact that legalizing marijuana in California will have on consumption and public budgets," said Beau Kilmer, the study's lead author and a policy researcher at RAND. "No government has legalized the production and distribution of marijuana for general use, so there is little evidence on which to base any predictions about how this might work in California."

The analysis also suggests that the annual cost of enforcing current marijuana laws is smaller than suggested by others. The RAND study estimates that the cost of enforcing the current laws probably totals less than $300 million.

"It is critical that legislators and the public understand what is known and unknown as the state weighs this unprecedented step," said Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, a study co-author and co-director with Kilmer of the RAND Drug Policy Research Center.

Two proposals are pending that would legalize the production and sale of marijuana in California. Assembly Bill 2254 authored by Assemblyman Tom Ammiano (D-San Francisco) would legalize marijuana for those aged 21 and older and task the state Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control with regulating its possession, sale and cultivation. The bill would create a $50 per ounce excise tax and these funds would be used to fund drug education, awareness, and rehabilitation programs under the jurisdiction of the State Department of Alcohol and Drug Programs.

In November, California voters will consider a ballot measure titled the Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010 that would make it legal for those aged 21 and older to cultivate marijuana on a 5-foot-by-5-foot plot, and possess, process, share or transport up to one ounce of marijuana. In addition, the initiative would authorize cities or counties to allow, regulate and tax the commercial cultivation and sales of marijuana. Such activities would remain illegal in jurisdictions that do not opt in.

In only two countries have there been changes in the criminal status of supplying marijuana. The Netherlands allows for sale of small amounts of marijuana (5 grams) in licensed coffee shops and in Australia four jurisdictions have reduced the penalties for cultivation of a small number of marijuana plants to confiscation and a fine. Neither has legalized larger-scale commercial cultivation of the sort California is considering.

In 1975, California was one of the first states to reduce the maximum penalty for possessing less than an ounce of marijuana from incarceration to a misdemeanor with a $100 fine. In 1996, California became the first state to allow marijuana to be grown and consumed for medical purposes.

RAND researchers say one effect of legalizing marijuana would be to dramatically drop the price as growers move from clandestine operations to legal production. Based on an analysis of known production costs and surveys of the current price of marijuana, researchers suggest the untaxed retail price of high-quality marijuana could drop to as low as $38 per ounce compared to about $375 per ounce today.

RAND researchers caution there are many factors that make it difficult to accurately estimate revenue that might be generated by any tax on legal marijuana. The higher the tax, the greater the incentives would be for a gray market in marijuana to develop, researchers say.

"A fixed excise tax per ounce may give producers and users an incentive to shift to smaller quantities of higher-potency forms of marijuana," said study co-author Jonathan P. Caulkins, the H. Guyford Stever Professor of Operations Research at Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College and Qatar campus. Such a shift is another factor that could lower revenues collected from marijuana taxes.

In addition, since the November ballot initiative leaves it to local governments to set tax rates, the size of any levy could vary broadly. A jurisdiction with a low tax rate might attract marijuana buyers from elsewhere in the state or even other states, further complicating efforts to predict government revenues from the sale of legal marijuana, according to researchers.

The RAND report also investigates some of the costs to the state and society in general, such as drug treatment and other health expenses, that may change if marijuana is legalized in California.

It's unclear whether legalizing marijuana may increase or decrease drug treatment costs, according to the study. More than half of the 32,000 admissions for treatment of marijuana abuse in California during in 2009 resulted from criminal justice referrals, which could drop if legalization is approved. However, an increase in marijuana use could cause a spike in those who voluntarily seek treatment for marijuana abuse, researchers say.

Full report available here:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2010/RAND_OP315.pdf

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OfflineKonyap


Registered: 06/30/07
Posts: 33,945
Loc: Planet Piss
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: veggie]
    #12862392 - 07/07/10 03:03 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

who's that guy, that starts a relationship witha giant bag of weed and they go around town and get married then he's getting head from it and stuff and they live in an apartment together. its like a real life skit i cant remember who did it

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Offlinefall
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: Konyap]
    #12862483 - 07/07/10 03:21 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

dave chappelle i think?

i hate how they take it as a given that an increase in use would be a bad thing.

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Invisibledressel11
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: fall]
    #12862501 - 07/07/10 03:25 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

i thought that was a fantasy Kumar had in the first harold and Kumar movie.

On the article: I though the way california calculated the the tax revenue the figured a $50 an ounce tax no matter what it sold for to the consumer. If that is the case, which i'm not sure cuz i cant remember where i read it so I dont know if it was a reliable source, it wouldn't matter how cheap it got and an increase in use would just mean more revenue.

Just make it leagal for any average joe to grow  as long as they register with the state to pay the appropriate tax, but then make the  fines so large that it would be in every growers best interest to go legit. That would also stabalize prices since they would need to profit enough to pay for growing supplies and a high electric bill. I dont know how well this would work im no economist, just brain storming.

(pardon my spelling and grammer i just woke up from a nap)

Edited by dressel11 (07/07/10 03:29 PM)

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OfflineNoOneKnowsHowToAct
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: dressel11]
    #12862584 - 07/07/10 03:37 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

dressel11 said:
On the article: I though the way california calculated the the tax revenue the figured a $50 an ounce tax no matter what it sold for to the consumer. If that is the case, which i'm not sure cuz i cant remember where i read it so I dont know if it was a reliable source, it wouldn't matter how cheap it got and an increase in use would just mean more revenue.




Your logic is correct. The study is highly flawed, making the article useless. The authors are a list of pro drug prohibition political pawns clearly using a "objective" study to push their agendas. The study was clearly made to come to a predetermined conclusion.

Quote:

The RAND study estimates that the cost of enforcing the current laws probably totals less than $300 million.



That line right there should tell you how flawed this study is.


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Offlinewinterone
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Registered: 11/08/09
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: dressel11]
    #12862603 - 07/07/10 03:40 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

I though the way california calculated the the tax revenue the figured a $50 an ounce tax no matter what it sold for to the consumer.





From my impression this is the way it was figured out when they did the math. I suspect it would be then pushed upward to satisfy certain members of influence to pass it, then fight it in light of federal laws. I can't image the feds would wage war against a states choice of laws with sentiments running high that the feds should butt out of states business. Should be an interesting out come. I think something is going to give in the political powers that be that will change how the game is played. This is were we will see where the real crooks hide out, ie does the idea of a freedom of choice still exist in the United States


--------------------
Alice
I wonder if I've been changed in the night? Let me think. Was I the same when I got up this morning? I almost think I can remember feeling a little different. But if I'm not the same, the next question is 'Who in the world am I?' Ah, that's the great puzzle!

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InvisibleveggieM

Registered: 07/25/04
Posts: 17,504
Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: dressel11]
    #12862681 - 07/07/10 03:55 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

dressel: Yes, that is correct. What's talked about is a flat tax of $50/ounce regardless of the selling price.

fall: The article doesn't make any commentary that an increase in use "would be a bad thing". It just states that legalization could result in an increase in use.

Studies have shown that an increase in cannabis use results in a decrease in use of hard drugs. In Colorado, for example, after the increase in availability of medical marijuana, and the decriminalization of recreational marijuana there was a corresponding fall in the use of alcohol, heroin, and meth.

The percentage of people who use drugs, including alcohol, have remained more or less stable for decades. So a shift to a safer alternative and a corresponding decrease in hard drug use is certainly a good thing, which even the non-drug using, non-drinker segment of the population can agree with also.

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OfflineKonyap


Registered: 06/30/07
Posts: 33,945
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: veggie]
    #12862695 - 07/07/10 03:57 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Well yes generally when you go to pick up weed at a crack house, you may want to grab some meth bombs as well.

Nah dont do that, you;ll have a mini stroke!!

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OfflineStainBlue
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: dressel11]
    #12862710 - 07/07/10 04:01 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

dressel11 said:
i thought that was a fantasy Kumar had in the first harold and Kumar movie.

On the article: I though the way california calculated the the tax revenue the figured a $50 an ounce tax no matter what it sold for to the consumer. If that is the case, which i'm not sure cuz i cant remember where i read it so I dont know if it was a reliable source, it wouldn't matter how cheap it got and an increase in use would just mean more revenue.

Just make it leagal for any average joe to grow  as long as they register with the state to pay the appropriate tax, but then make the  fines so large that it would be in every growers best interest to go legit. That would also stabalize prices since they would need to profit enough to pay for growing supplies and a high electric bill. I dont know how well this would work im no economist, just brain storming.

(pardon my spelling and grammer i just woke up from a nap)




Legally they cannot tax any marijuana grown for personal use or require a license to do so. For example, tobacco has a tax, however, that tax can be avoided by growing your own and you don't need a license to grow it.

The only time they can charge a tax or require a license is when the marijuana is grown for commercial sale.

Besides, how would they regulate and collect tax on a few marijuana plants grown in someone's backyard?

If someone grows corn and carrots in their garden they are not required to pay tax on produced vegetables or obtain a license so why should marijuana be any different.


--------------------
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OfflineDRAGON_0
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Registered: 09/28/09
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: StainBlue]
    #12862720 - 07/07/10 04:03 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Legally they cannot tax any marijuana grown for personal use or require a license to do so. For example, tobacco has a tax, however, that tax can be avoided by growing your own and you don't need a license to grow it.

The only time they can charge a tax or require a license is when the marijuana is grown for commercial sale.

Besides, how would they regulate and collect tax on a few marijuana plants grown in someone's backyard?

If someone grows corn and carrots in their garden they are not required to pay tax on produced vegetables or obtain a license so why should marijuana be any different.




:thumbup:

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OfflineredHue
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Registered: 10/11/08
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: veggie]
    #12862737 - 07/07/10 04:09 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

veggie said:

Studies have shown that an increase in cannabis use results in a decrease in use of hard drugs. In Colorado, for example, after the increase in availability of medical marijuana, and the decriminalization of recreational marijuana there was a corresponding fall in the use of alcohol, heroin, and meth.





hey veggie you have a link or source to this info?  i would love to read more because this exact thing happened to me and my friend after getting our medical cards in CO.  we both used to drink a 6 pack of strong beer (IPAs) nearly every night, and since getting legal, now we hardly drink at all.  no more hangovers and 'blank' nights, no more empty calories and getting a beer gut...my card really changed my life/health for the better.


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OfflineGutteralRetch
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: redHue]
    #12862795 - 07/07/10 04:25 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

:omgawesome:


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Has anyone else felt like this?

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Invisible5-HT2A

Registered: 01/30/10
Posts: 1,794
Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: GutteralRetch]
    #12863018 - 07/07/10 05:15 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

The RAND corporation? Ya no conflict of interest between weed and military profiteering. None at all.

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Offlineutk
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Registered: 04/10/07
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: 5-HT2A]
    #12863414 - 07/07/10 06:36 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Legalization would result in a short spike in use before leveling off to lower levels once its fully ingrained. Just like the Netherlands... There wouldn't necessarily be more people using, there would just be more people honest about using. And so what if the use increased as long as alcohol/cigarette sales went down. People who didn't get high before weren't doing so for fear of being punished by law. These muh fuckas got no common sense. What about property crime and the children....there will already be laws against stealing or selling pot to kids. Most pot heads dont do other crimes. People who do other crimes and smoke pot are just the ones standing out and getting busted. These cops and politicians are so jaded and there perceptions out dated ya dig.

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OfflineKonyap


Registered: 06/30/07
Posts: 33,945
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: utk]
    #12863765 - 07/07/10 07:53 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Not to mention litterally everyone smokes weed or is alright with someone smoking, besides goverment workers, if it was legal I think it'd just be a part of growing up and something to either not take part in or grow out of.  It's just something that isn't going to complicate things, why the fuck am I talking about this here.:shrug:

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OfflineNymphaea
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: Konyap]
    #12866371 - 07/08/10 08:55 AM (13 years, 8 months ago)

The study does not take into account the decrease in use among those under the age of 21.  For teenagers marijuana is going to become HARDER to obtain, and they are a sizable percentage of the smoking populace.

I think that it will cause a slight decrease in use among teenagers, but a slight increase in use among adults.  This would be a GOOD thing, as adults are more responsible (generally) with their use and it will not hinder their development at all.


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InvisibleLe_Canard
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: Nymphaea]
    #12866409 - 07/08/10 09:06 AM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Well, actualy it would only appear to increase amongst adults as those who have hidden their use well will be able to be more open about it.

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OfflineNymphaea
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: Le_Canard]
    #12866554 - 07/08/10 09:47 AM (13 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

ToiletDuk said:
Well, actualy it would only appear to increase amongst adults as those who have hidden their use well will be able to be more open about it.




word.


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: Nymphaea]
    #12866635 - 07/08/10 10:12 AM (13 years, 8 months ago)

I think if adults were given the option, some of them would choose marijuana over alcohol. In that sense, the number of weed users might increase, but I think that's a good thing. Stoned is better than drunk.

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InvisibleScudreloaded
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Re: Legalizing Marijuana In California Would Lower Price And Increase Use, Study Finds [Re: morrowasted]
    #12867584 - 07/08/10 02:12 PM (13 years, 8 months ago)

weed is so much safer than alcohol.
ive been too drunk to drive but never too stoned to drive.
giggles munchies and then sleep. lol
and people would do it more, if the government finally says its ok.
street product would still vary i think from a lot.
$38 ounces would be bomb though.....might have to drive out there and pick some up if it goes that cheap


--------------------
We were somewhere around Barstow on the edge of the desert when the drugs began to take hold. - Hunter S. Thompson

- believe what you may but take the internet with a grain of salt

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