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 Luddite
cognitive dissident
Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,454
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 RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 
#8648149 - 07/17/08 07:50 PM (4 years, 10 months ago) |
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RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 – Stick a Fork In It
Science Group Repping 50,000 Physicists Reverses Stance, Admits 'Considerable Presence' of Skeptics
http://www.dailytech.com/Myth+of+Consensus+Explodes+APS+Opens+Global+Warming+Debate/article12403.htm
Myth of Consensus Explodes: APS Opens Global Warming Debate
Michael Asher - July 16, 2008 9:35 PM
"Considerable presence" of skeptics
The American Physical Society, an organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming. The APS is also sponsoring public debate on the validity of global warming science. The leadership of the society had previously called the evidence for global warming "incontrovertible."
In a posting to the APS forum, editor Jeffrey Marque explains,"There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution."
The APS is opening its debate with the publication of a paper by Lord Monckton of Brenchley, which concludes that climate sensitivity -- the rate of temperature change a given amount of greenhouse gas will cause -- has been grossly overstated by IPCC modeling. A low sensitivity implies additional atmospheric CO2 will have little effect on global climate.
Larry Gould, Professor of Physics at the University of Hartford and Chairman of the New England Section of the APS, called Monckton's paper an "expose of the IPCC that details numerous exaggerations and "extensive errors"
In an email to DailyTech, Monckton says, "I was dismayed to discover that the IPCC's 2001 and 2007 reports did not devote chapters to the central 'climate sensitivity' question, and did not explain in proper, systematic detail the methods by which they evaluated it. When I began to investigate, it seemed that the IPCC was deliberately concealing and obscuring its method."
According to Monckton, there is substantial support for his results, "in the peer-reviewed literature, most articles on climate sensitivity conclude, as I have done, that climate sensitivity must be harmlessly low."
Monckton, who was the science advisor to Britain's Thatcher administration, says natural variability is the cause of most of the Earth's recent warming. "In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years ... Mars, Jupiter, Neptune’s largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth."
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13 Scientists Write Letter To UN Sec. Gen. – IPCC ‘Must be called to account and cease its deceptive practices’ - 14th of July, 2008
Excerpt: Dear Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, The UN Climate Change Panel must be called to account and cease its deceptive practices
- Policies based on false science must be ended - We, an independent group of experts in various aspects of science and the environment, ask you to redress the lack of scientific integrity of the UN’s Climate Change Panel (IPCC) and to stop them making reactionary and futile ‘Climate Change’ recommendations that hold back the developing world. […] For your illumination we refer you to: (i) The chart in our letter of 14 April (page 3) which shows, using official data, that for the last decade World Temperatures have been falling whilst CO2 keeps rising, and (ii) A geological (Greenland ice core) chart of polar climate covering the last 10,000 years (Ref B) which shows that while CO2 levels have been rising, temperatures have been falling since the Bronze Age around 4,000 years ago (see page 2). The assertion that the recent rapid rise of CO2 is unique and dangerous is both deceptive and irrelevant because CO2 does not drive the world's climate. Claims that such rapid rises have not happened before are not supported by ice-core or other geological records (ref C). […] Either the IPCC is simply failing to notice these gross discrepancies or it is consciously evading or covering-up observations that challenge its theories. Yours sincerely, Piers Corbyn - Astrophysicist & forecaster, WeatherAction, UK - Vincent Gray IPCC Expert Reviewer, Climate Consultant, NZ - Richard Courtney IPCC Exp. Rev., Energy & Envir. Consultant, UK Hans Labohm IPCC Expert Reviewer, Economist & Author, Holland Will Alexander Prof. Em. Dept. Civil & Biosystems, South Africa - Don Parkes Prof. Human Ecology (Ret.) Australia & Japan - Joseph D’Aleo Certified Consultant Meteorologist, Fellow AMS, USA - Svend Hendriksen Nobel Peace Prize 1988 (shared), Greenland - Alan Siddons Climate Researcher, USA - Bob Ashworth Chem. Eng. (Energy & Environment), USA - Norm Kalmanovitch Geophysicist, Canada, - Jim Peden Atmospheric Physicist (Ret.), USA - Hans Schreuder Analytical Chemist (Ret.), UK
http://www.tech-know.eu/uploads/Letter_UN_Sec_Gen_Ban_Ki-moon.pdf
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Lots more here: http://www.geocities.com/sciliterature/MarcMoranoEmail7-17-08.htm
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 lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 2 years, 1 month
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 Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Luddite]
#8648184 - 07/17/08 08:03 PM (4 years, 10 months ago) |
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good.
--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"
We have "reckless fiscal policies"
America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.
Americans deserve better
Barack Obama
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Minstrel
Man of Science
Registered: 03/15/05
Posts: 1,974
Loc: Hogtown
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: lonestar2004]
#8648430 - 07/17/08 09:46 PM (4 years, 10 months ago) |
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Clearly more re-education is required to set the global warming agenda back on it's pedestal.
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 2 years, 1 month
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Minstrel]
#8648439 - 07/17/08 09:49 PM (4 years, 10 months ago) |
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They'll never stop coming up with ideas and ways to get more of our $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.
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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"
We have "reckless fiscal policies"
America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.
Americans deserve better
Barack Obama
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Minstrel
Man of Science
Registered: 03/15/05
Posts: 1,974
Loc: Hogtown
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: lonestar2004]
#8648464 - 07/17/08 09:58 PM (4 years, 10 months ago) |
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But.....the global warming detractors are as bad as holocaust deniers! Science is not on their side! 
Obey
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,394
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 3 months, 7 days
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Luddite]
#8652564 - 07/18/08 09:37 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Sorry, but...
http://www.aps.org/
Quote:
APS Position Remains Unchanged
The American Physical Society reaffirms the following position on climate change, adopted by its governing body, the APS Council, on November 18, 2007:
"Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate."
An article at odds with this statement recently appeared in an online newsletter of the APS Forum on Physics and Society, one of 39 units of APS. The header of this newsletter carries the statement that "Opinions expressed are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the APS or of the Forum." This newsletter is not a journal of the APS and it is not peer reviewed.
http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/monckton.cfm
Quote:
Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered
The following article has not undergone any scientific peer review. Its conclusions are in disagreement with the overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community. The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article's conclusions.
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic CO2 emissions probably caused more than half of the “global warming” of the past 50 years and would cause further rapid ...
I don't have faith in the global warming hype, but it doesn't help to spread misinformation... the proverbial two wrongs don't make a right.
From the movie Real Genius:
Quote:
Dr. Meredith: A bit of advice...
Mitch: Oh, uh, thank you...
Dr. Meredith: Always... no, no... never... forget to check your references.
Edited by Seuss (07/18/08 09:43 PM)
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zorbman
Be Prepared
Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,746
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Luddite]
#8653881 - 07/19/08 04:21 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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What are your own thoughts on this topic, Luddite?
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Why does changing the party in power never change policy? Could it be that the views of both parties are essentially the same? - Ron Paul
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Coaster
Baʿal
Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 33,501
Loc: Deep in the Valley
Last seen: 1 year, 7 months
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: zorbman]
#8653897 - 07/19/08 04:32 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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global warming is real im super cereal
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Visionary Tools
I <3 Thomas Jefferson
Registered: 06/23/07
Posts: 6,743
Last seen: 1 day, 13 hours
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Luddite]
#8654275 - 07/19/08 09:54 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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MANBEARPIG!
They are still pushing the global carbon tax on us.
Take away all the CO2 in the world (and then watch as all the plants die), it won't stop global warming when the sun gets hotter.
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Wiccan_Seeker said:
slide down a pole than with your legs spread and using your pussy as a brake. Ask the fire department 
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Luddite
cognitive dissident
Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,454
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Seuss]
#8654315 - 07/19/08 10:26 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Well, obviously, Chinese hackers hacked that page. The communists and Al Qaeda are trying to weaken the west using the global warming scam so they can invade us, make us all slaves and then pollute the earth far more than the capitalists have ever done.
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dill705
Amazed
Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 3,779
Loc: The Cat's Cradle
Last seen: 6 months, 11 days
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Seuss]
#8660999 - 07/21/08 12:19 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Can you give someone a bad rating more than once?
Misrepresenting an article like this is kind of an asshole move IMHO.
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My advice is to find those things that give pleasure and do them often without too much attachment and relax and wait for the show to end.
-Icelander-
I like free markets and all. Truly I do, at least in general, but there needs to be some kind of oversight in recognition of sustainability. Life works the same way, on a bunch of sustainable systems. Why not honor what made us what we are and take some lessons? Nature FTW!
~dill705~
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Visionary Tools
I <3 Thomas Jefferson
Registered: 06/23/07
Posts: 6,743
Last seen: 1 day, 13 hours
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: dill705]
#8661990 - 07/21/08 09:11 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Wiccan_Seeker said:
slide down a pole than with your legs spread and using your pussy as a brake. Ask the fire department
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,394
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 3 months, 7 days
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: dill705]
#8662172 - 07/21/08 10:41 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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> Misrepresenting an article like this is kind of an asshole move IMHO.
Do be fair, I suspect Luddite simply copy/pasted without checking... I've made the same mistake myself; rather embarrassing. Unfortunately, it had the ring of too good to be true, and it was.
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Just another spore in the wind.
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Luddite
cognitive dissident
Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,454
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Seuss]
#8664276 - 07/21/08 08:30 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Here's some more.
RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS CHALLENGE CLIMATE CHANGE CONSENSUS - The Hindu – India’s National Newspaper: July 10, 2008–
Russian scientists 'reject the very idea that carbon dioxide may be responsible for global warming'
Excerpt: As western nations step up pressure on India and China to curb the emission of greenhouse gases, Russian scientists reject the very idea that carbon dioxide may be responsible for global warming. Russian critics of the Kyoto Protocol, which calls for cuts in CO2 emissions, say that the theory underlying the pact lacks scientific basis. Under the Theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming, it is human-generated greenhouse gases, and mainly CO2, that cause climate change. “The Kyoto theorists have put the cart before the horse,” says renowned Russian geographer Andrei Kapitsa. “It is global warming that triggers higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, not the other way round.” Russian researchers made this discovery while studying ice cores recovered from the depth of 3.5 kilometres in Antarctica. Analysis of ancient ice and air bubbles trapped inside revealed the composition of the atmosphere and air temperature going back as far as 400,000 years. We found that the level of CO2 had fluctuated greatly over the period but at any given time increases in air temperature preceded higher concentrations of CO2,” says academician Kapitsa, who worked in Antarctica for many years. Russian studies showed that throughout history, CO2 levels in the air rose 500 to 600 years after the climate warmed up. Therefore, higher concentrations of greenhouse gases registered today are the result, not the cause, of global warming.
http://www.hindu.com/2008/07/10/stories/2008071055521000.htm ]
July 18, 2008 - Arctic ice increases by nearly a half million square miles over this time last year
Excerpt: Good news! Despite the recent global warming alarmism in the media that Arctic ice might melt away completely from the North Pole this summer, the latest scientific observations show that Arctic ice has actually increased by nearly a half million square miles over this time last year. This is in stark contrast to the Chicken Little hysteria that was being promoted less than a month ago on the CBS Early Show as reported by Kyle Drennen on June 27 here in NewsBusters: On Friday’s CBS "Early Show," co-host Maggie Rodriguez teased an upcoming interview with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair about global warming: "Also ahead this morning, we'll talk about a disturbing new report from some scientists in Colorado who say that there is the very real possibility that for the first time we will see the ice in the North Pole melt away completely during the summer." Well, the latest information on Arctic ice conditions is just in from the National Snow and Ice Data Center and Maggie Rodriguez can breath easy (emphasis mine): Arctic sea ice extent on July 16 stood at 8.91 million square kilometers (3.44 square miles). While extent was below the 1979 to 2000 average of 9.91 square kilometers (3.83 million square miles), it was 1.05 million square kilometers (0.41 million square miles) above the value for July 16, 2007... So why the increase in the ice shelf over last year despite the MSM hysteria on this topic? An explanation is given: How is this different from what we saw in the record-breaking year 2007? In early July 2007, an atmospheric pattern developed that featured high pressure over the Beaufort Sea. This pattern promoted especially strong sea ice loss. The pattern that has dominated the summer of 2008, so far, seems less favorable for ice loss...” So won't Maggie Rodriquez and other global warming alarmists be excited over this news about increased ice in the Arctic this summer? Don't hold your breath. Rodriguez and others in the MSM will probably just let their original dire global warming predictions stand without any later corrections when the scientific facts prove them wrong. So let us sign off on this latest example of global warming alarmism predictions gone wrong with a June 27 quote on this topic from Steve Connor, "science editor" of the Independent (U.K.):
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/07/18/will-msm-report-2008-arctic-ice-increase
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Ginseng1
Elegant Universe
Registered: 09/02/04
Posts: 3,309
Last seen: 7 months, 10 days
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Luddite]
#8664285 - 07/21/08 08:33 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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NIBIRU IS HERE AND THE ANNUNAKI SHALL RETURN ONCE MORE TO MAKE BABIES WITH OUR WOMEN!!! 
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Flowing through beginningless time since time without beginning...
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Luddite
cognitive dissident
Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,454
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Luddite]
#8664291 - 07/21/08 08:34 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Scientists threatened for 'climate denial'
By Tom Harper
Last Updated: 12:21AM GMT 11 Mar 2007
Scientists who questioned mankind's impact on climate change have received death threats and claim to have been shunned by the scientific community.
They say the debate on global warming has been "hijacked" by a powerful alliance of politicians, scientists and environmentalists who have stifled all questioning about the true environmental impact of carbon dioxide emissions.
Timothy Ball, a former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg in Canada, has received five deaths threats by email since raising concerns about the degree to which man was affecting climate change.
One of the emails warned that, if he continued to speak out, he would not live to see further global warming.
"Western governments have pumped billions of dollars into careers and institutes and they feel threatened," said the professor.
"I can tolerate being called a sceptic because all scientists should be sceptics, but then they started calling us deniers, with all the connotations of the Holocaust. That is an obscenity. It has got really nasty and personal."
Last week, Professor Ball appeared in The Great Global Warming Swindle, a Channel 4 documentary in which several scientists claimed the theory of man-made global warming had become a "religion", forcing alternative explanations to be ignored.
Richard Lindzen, the professor of Atmospheric Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology - who also appeared on the documentary - recently claimed: "Scientists who dissent from the alarmism have seen their funds disappear, their work derided, and themselves labelled as industry stooges.
"Consequently, lies about climate change gain credence even when they fly in the face of the science."
Dr Myles Allen, from Oxford University, agreed. He said: "The Green movement has hijacked the issue of climate change. It is ludicrous to suggest the only way to deal with the problem is to start micro managing everyone, which is what environmentalists seem to want to do."
Nigel Calder, a former editor of New Scientist, said: "Governments are trying to achieve unanimity by stifling any scientist who disagrees. Einstein could not have got funding under the present system."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1545134/Scientists-threatened-for-%27climate-denial%27.html
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Luddite
cognitive dissident
Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,454
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: Luddite]
#8664676 - 07/21/08 09:54 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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ScavengerType
Registered: 01/25/08
Posts: 5,755
Loc: The North
Last seen: 8 days, 7 hours
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: zorbman]
#8666153 - 07/22/08 02:53 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
zorbman said:
What are your own thoughts on this topic, Luddite?
Luddite doesn't have thoughts just carpet bombs of irrelevant and uninformed news stories. I remember seeing a news story on a "mainstream" TV news network predict the apocalypse was coming soon. The news is not sciences (or reality's) friend all the time.
Quote:
Luddite said:
Well, obviously, Chinese hackers hacked that page. The communists and Al Qaeda are trying to weaken the west using the global warming scam so they can invade us, make us all slaves and then pollute the earth far more than the capitalists have ever done.
Have I totally misunderstood Luddite? Is he a satirical character like Stephen Colbert and I've taken him seriously all this time?
Quote:
dill705 said:
Can you give someone a bad rating more than once?
Misrepresenting an article like this is kind of an asshole move IMHO.
Unfortunately no but you can ignore them.
Quote:
Visionary Tools said:
They are still pushing the global carbon tax on us.
Take away all the CO2 in the world (and then watch as all the plants die), it won't stop global warming when the sun gets hotter.
I've explained this many times carbon taxes do not have to mean more money to the government if the increase in revenue is used to reduce taxes elsewhere. Though for the US I'd recommend paying the interest on your massive annual deficit but that'd have to be a pretty big carbon tax.
Did you know though that the more CO2 in the atmosphere the less water is transpired by plants reducing the overall humidity in the area. This is of significant impact in areas such as rainforests where transpiration vapor represents significant water flows.
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"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club
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Visionary Tools
I <3 Thomas Jefferson
Registered: 06/23/07
Posts: 6,743
Last seen: 1 day, 13 hours
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: ScavengerType]
#8666504 - 07/22/08 05:24 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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If this does not arouse suspicion and inquiry, then reverse psychology is dead.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/07/21/monckton_aps/
American physicists warned not to debate global warming
By Andrew Orlowski (andrew.orlowski@theregister.co.uk)
Published Monday 21st July 2008 16:04 GMT
Bureaucrats at the American Physical Society (APS) have issued a curious warning to their members about an article in one of their own publications. Don't read this, they say - we don't agree with it. But what is it about the piece that is so terrible, that like Medusa, it could make men go blind?
It's an article that examines the calculation central to climate models. As the editor of the APS's newsletter American Physics Jeffrey Marque explains, the global warming debate must be re-opened.
"There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution. Since the correctness or fallacy of that conclusion has immense implications for public policy and for the future of the biosphere, we thought it appropriate to present a debate within the pages of P&S concerning that conclusion," he wrote (http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/editor.cfm).
American Physics invited both believers and sceptics to submit articles, and has published a submission by Viscount Monckton questioning (http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/monckton.cfm) the core calculation of the greenhouse gas theory: climate sensitivity. The believers are represented (http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/hafemeister.cfm) by two physicists from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, who state that:
"Basic atmospheric models clearly predict that additional greenhouse gasses will raise the temperature of Earth. To argue otherwise, one must prove a physical mechanism that gives a reasonable alternative cause of warming. This has not been done. Sunspot and temperature correlations do not prove causality."
But within a few days, Monckton's piece carried a health warning: in bright red ink.
The following article has not undergone any scientific peer review. Its conclusions are in disagreement with the overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community. The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article's conclusions.
Not so much Medusa, then, as Nanny telling the children what not to think.
"The first sentence is nothing more or less than a deliberate lie," writes (http://numberwatch.co.uk/2008%20July.htm) Professor John Brignell on his Numberwatch blog. "The second is, to say the least, contentious; while the third is an outrageous example of ultra vires interference by a committee in the proper conduct of scientific debate."
Monckton has asked for an apology. In a letter to the APS President Arthur Bienenstock, he writes:
"If the Council has not scientifically evaluated or formally considered my paper, may I ask with what credible scientific justification, and on whose authority, the offending text asserts primo, that the paper had not been scientifically reviewed when it had; secundo, that its conclusions disagree with what is said (on no evidence) to be the "overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community"; and, tertio, that "The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article's conclusions"? Which of my conclusions does the Council disagree with, and on what scientific grounds (if any)?"
Believers and sceptics have spent the past few days examining the value of "peer review", and the weight of validity that should be placed on "publication". Monckton is a classics scholar and former journalist, which believers maintain is enough to disqualify him from holding an opinion.
(Whether it's science is not in question - whether it's "good science" or "bad science" is the question. An earlier presentation by Monckton examining questioning climate sensitivity received was examined (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/11/cuckoo-science/) by NASA's Gavin Schmidt on the believers' blog, RealClimate.org.)
But for anyone without a dog in this race, and perhaps not familiar with the "state of the science" there may be a couple of surprises in Monckton's paper.
One is how small the field of "experts" really is. The UN's IPCC is tasked with producing a summary of the "scientific consensus" and claims to process the contributions of some 2,500 scientists. But as Monckton writes:
"It is of no little significance that the IPCC’s value for the coefficient in the CO2 forcing equation depends on only one paper in the literature; that its values for the feedbacks that it believes account for two-thirds of humankind’s effect on global temperatures are likewise taken from only one paper; and that its implicit value of the crucial parameter κ depends upon only two papers, one of which had been written by a lead author of the chapter in question, and neither of which provides any theoretical or empirical justification for a value as high as that which the IPCC adopted." [our emphasis]
Another eye-opener is his explanation of how the believers' climate models are verified:
"Since we cannot measure any individual forcing directly in the atmosphere, the models draw upon results of laboratory experiments in passing sunlight through chambers in which atmospheric constituents are artificially varied," writes Monckton. "Such experiments are, however, of limited value when translated into the real atmosphere, where radiative transfers and non-radiative transports (convection and evaporation up, advection along, subsidence and precipitation down), as well as altitudinal and latitudinal asymmetries, greatly complicate the picture."
In other words, an unproven hypothesis is fed into a computer (so far so good), but it can only be verified against experiments that have no resemblance to the chaotic system of the Earth's climate. It is not hard to see how the scientists could produce an immaculate "model" that's theoretically perfect in every respect (all the equations balance, and it may even be programmed to offer perfect "hind-casting"), but which has no practical predictive value at all. It's safe from the rude intrusion of empirical evidence drawn from atmospheric observation.
The great British-born physicist Freeman Dyson offered an impertinent dose of reality which illustrates the dangers of relying on theory for both your hypothesis and the evidence you need to support it. Since 8 per cent of atmospheric CO2 is absorbed by the planet's biomass every year, notes Dyson (http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21494), the average lifespan of a carbon molecule in the atmosphere is about 12 years. His observation leaves the "climate scientists" models as immaculate as they were before, but suggests a very different course of policy action. It suggests our stewardship of land should be at the forefront of CO2 mitigation strategies. That's not something we hear from politicians, pressure groups and, yes ... climate scientists.
Comments welcome (mailto:andrew.orlowski@theregister.co.uk?Subject=aps_monckton). ®
Related stories
Are the ice caps melting? (3 July 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/07/03/goddard_polar_ice/
Wind power key to UK's desperate renewable energy bid (27 June 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/06/27/renewable_energy_consultation/
Veteran climate scientist says 'lock up the oil men' (23 June 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/06/23/hansen_dc/
Painting by numbers: NASA's peculiar thermometer (5 June 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/06/05/goddard_nasa_thermometer/
Climate profs 'can't recommend' enormo-space-parasol (23 May 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/23/sunshade_world_lukewarm/
Is the earth getting warmer, or cooler? (2 May 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/02/a_tale_of_two_thermometers/
Wake me up when Global Warming's over (23 April 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/23/global_warming_yawn/
The BBC, the UN, and climate bullying (15 April 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/15/bbc_global_notwarming_mailbag/
Soot almost as bad as CO2 for global warming (25 March 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/03/25/soot_solution/
IPCC's 'evil twin' launches climate change sceptic's creed (10 March 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/03/10/nipcc_manhattan_declaration/
Big Climate's strange 'science' (14 February 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/02/14/climate_comment/
When poor people pollute - the Tata Nano and eco-crime (12 February 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/02/12/tata_nano_ecocrimes/
Philip Pullman: Kill humans and ration heating (21 January 2008)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/01/21/philip_pullman_wartime_misery/
Cloudy outlook for climate models (27 December 2007)
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/12/27/anton_wylie_climate_models/
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Wiccan_Seeker said:
slide down a pole than with your legs spread and using your pussy as a brake. Ask the fire department
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dill705
Amazed
Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 3,779
Loc: The Cat's Cradle
Last seen: 6 months, 11 days
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Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008 [Re: ScavengerType]
#8666507 - 07/22/08 05:26 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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That's a cool little factoid at the end there. 
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My advice is to find those things that give pleasure and do them often without too much attachment and relax and wait for the show to end.
-Icelander-
I like free markets and all. Truly I do, at least in general, but there needs to be some kind of oversight in recognition of sustainability. Life works the same way, on a bunch of sustainable systems. Why not honor what made us what we are and take some lessons? Nature FTW!
~dill705~
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