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 fuzzwhatnot
let's go bowling
Registered: 01/04/11
Posts: 66
Last seen: 1 year, 6 months
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 anybody on here believe in peak oil? 
#13932400 - 02/09/11 10:19 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Woke up this morning and this is what I saw on the front page of Drudge Here
That's some raw shit right there. I've been thinking about the far reaching implications of energy decent for 4 or 5 years now and it still blows my mind.
Anybody else in my boat?
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 gerryjarcia
biophiliac
Registered: 05/29/10
Posts: 1,862
Loc: the woods
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: fuzzwhatnot]
#13932408 - 02/09/11 10:23 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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yeah man, i think about it all the time. if by "peak oil" you mean believing that any resource is finite than yes, i believe in peak oil. i love hearing people argue against the whole "finite resource" model.
it's as if they discovered a way to get something from nothing eternally. fuckin' stupid.
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"We are all intoxicated. We were born into an insane asylum, a world crazy-making. We believe what we see and hear. The real myth is the myth of sanity, of rationality: it's a disease that is eating away at the earth. All the poisons flow from our denial. We deny madness, we forget our crimes, we dismember the corpse, we imprison our children. We need poison to poison the poison, to remember the sacred nature of intoxication, the green body of the young god." ~ Dale Pendell
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DieCommie
El Guapo
Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 25,374
Loc: Street of Dreams
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: fuzzwhatnot]
#13932410 - 02/09/11 10:24 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Believe in it as there will be a time where oil demand goes up faster than supply goes up? Yes.
Believe it it as there will be chaos and anarchy and I should be very afraid? No.
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Force Ten
Home Will Always Be Here
Registered: 04/10/08
Posts: 720
Loc: Elation Station 
Last seen: 5 hours, 27 minutes
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: gerryjarcia]
#13932423 - 02/09/11 10:27 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Fossil fuels are not renewable on practical timescales. I red a lot about Peak Oil in my geology textbook last semester and yes, I do believe that we will run out of cheap petroleum within my lifetime.
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So hear this please
And watch as your heart speeds up endlessly
And look for the stars as the sun goes down
Each breath that you take has a thunderous sound
Everything, everything's magic
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Yrat
Hello
Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,030
Last seen: 6 hours, 40 minutes
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: fuzzwhatnot] 1
#13932430 - 02/09/11 10:30 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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peak oil is an interesting concept that is often intermixed with controversial ideas.
personally, i somewhat believe in abiotic oil, so oil as an absolutely finite resource does not hold much water with me.
HOWEVER, the real issue is peak affordable oil, or peak cheap oil. the phrase "peak oil" should be viewed as a misnomer.
essentially, the world will run out of easily accessible oil. those who argue against peak oil always point to the vast "wealth" of oil contained within the tar sands and shale deposits. what they fail to take into account is the energy return on energy invested (EROEI).
the days of sticking a straw into some saudi sand and getting light sweet crude will soon be over. this type of oil represents high EROEI ratios. essentially, for one barrel's worth of energy expended to drill and process, you can get 10+ barrels out of the ground.
the problem with the tar sands and oil shales, is that the ratio is much closer to 1:1. if it takes 1 barrel's worth of energy just to extract a barrel of oil, there is zero net energy return, and, well, what is the point?
i do not believe oil production will ever come to a complete halt, as i believe in parts of the abiotic oil theory that oil is constantly renewed deep within the earth's mantle at extreme temperatures and pressures in a reducing environment. but the rate of the replenishment is nowhere near the rate of consumption by the human species. not to mention that these deep underground deposits (which can not be fossil in origin, by the way) are almost inaccessible compared to the oil that the world has used up first.
think $200, $300, $400+ per barrel, $10/gallon gasoline as where we are headed for starters. and that would be before corrections for inflation. the era of peak-CHEAP-oil is behind us.
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"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root
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fuzzwhatnot
let's go bowling
Registered: 01/04/11
Posts: 66
Last seen: 1 year, 6 months
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: DieCommie]
#13932446 - 02/09/11 10:35 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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I kind of look at it as a good thing. Money and oil have made it possible to live in a society where everything is disposable including the people around us. With out oil we need community and family again. I do have some concern about how the transition is gonna go. I work hard for a living and have some cottage industry skills under my belt, but 80 percent of the people I know are soft and hooked on processed foods and television.
I've heard lindsey williams banter on about abiotic oil on C2C, but bottom line is he's dead wrong. Even if he was right we'd use it all faster than we could pull it out of the ground. Makes me wonder how long we can sustain 6+ billion people without oil 
and then throw in the whole fucked up fiat currency thing. It's impossible to cement a price for a commodity anyway, but when the government is on schedule to double the amount of it's currency available, it's people are screwed
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Yrat
Hello
Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,030
Last seen: 6 hours, 40 minutes
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: fuzzwhatnot] 1
#13932500 - 02/09/11 10:52 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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sustaining the world's population without cheap oil is an impossibility. the human race has figured out how to convert the energy within oil into fertilizer to grow massive amounts of grains for the exponentially increasing population. in essence, our species is feeding off of oil as an energy input, like bacteria growing exponentially on a finite agar plate. we will all be witness to one of the most transformational periods in the history of humanity, hopefully we make it as a species. we are highly adaptable, so i have hope.
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"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root
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Nordique
Habs Suck
Registered: 02/04/11
Posts: 884
Last seen: 1 year, 1 day
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: Yrat]
#13932511 - 02/09/11 10:55 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Nope, I don't believe in it. THERE IS INIFINITY OIL!!!!
this post brought to you by sarcasm.
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It's a trip, it's got a funky beat, and I can BUG OUT to it.
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Devlish2
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Registered: 12/07/06
Posts: 3,641
Loc: The Astral Realm 16,376AD
Last seen: 4 months, 26 days
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: Nordique]
#13932552 - 02/09/11 11:05 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Who doesn't? Either way, it is time to utilize cleaner more efficient energy sources.
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[ ]
Space is the place
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nice1
Not the droid your looking for
Registered: 09/26/09
Posts: 10,449
Loc: earth
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: DieCommie]
#13932626 - 02/09/11 11:28 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
DieCommie said:
Believe it it as there will be chaos and anarchy and I should be very afraid? No.
Why not?
Personally I think we could happily convert to other fuels, synthetic materials and eco friendly methods of power generation. The only reason we don't is because companies want to make profit doing what they already do not spend money on converting to other methods.
Some people say the only thing the US dollar is propped up on is oil. Do you not think a financial collapse would cause anarchy?
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DieCommie
El Guapo
Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 25,374
Loc: Street of Dreams
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: nice1]
#13932657 - 02/09/11 11:35 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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I dont believe there will be financial collapse anytime soon. I also believe that oil will get gradually more expensive as the cheap oil slowley gets siphoned off and there wont be a quick shock.
Westerners just have to recenter their idea of what a normal lifestyle is. Going on road trips, commuting to work, having tons of consumer electronics, going to restaurants - all that will end, but that is not collapse.
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fuzzwhatnot
let's go bowling
Registered: 01/04/11
Posts: 66
Last seen: 1 year, 6 months
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: nice1]
#13932667 - 02/09/11 11:39 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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The Pentagon thinks so. They've been running war games on civil unrest in this country for the last 5 years or so according to the recently leaked douments.
Posse Comitatus is no longer in effect in this country anymore either. They've been doing "the Gentle Nudge" to that for a while. shit last year they had mock gun confiscations and sweep and clears in arcadia, FL.
I try telling people around me about stuff like this and all I get is  or  Not like its not in the news or anything. Makes me lol like the guy that doesn't believe in dinosaurs.
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gerryjarcia
biophiliac
Registered: 05/29/10
Posts: 1,862
Loc: the woods
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: DieCommie]
#13932739 - 02/09/11 11:55 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
DieCommie said:
I dont believe there will be financial collapse anytime soon. I also believe that oil will get gradually more expensive as the cheap oil slowley gets siphoned off and there wont be a quick shock.
Westerners just have to recenter their idea of what a normal lifestyle is. Going on road trips, commuting to work, having tons of consumer electronics, going to restaurants - all that will end, but that is not collapse.
if as a Westerner your "world" is made up of electronics, cars, restaurants and other luxuries that most americans have come to see as necessities than how would restricted access to those things that make up your "world" not cause some degree of chaos and collapse? It is for sure a "collapse" of some sort for the many that believe these things are what make up "existence".
i mean i understand what you're saying and totally agree. i know the difference between what i actually need to survive (food, water) and all the other superfluous shit. truth is, many modern Americans don't comprehend that difference (and for most of them it will take a lifetime to begin to grasp the difference between luxury vs. necessity. until that is comprehended on a mass scale, there may be a bit of chaos over limited access to things like cheap oil and the luxuries it has afforded us).
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"We are all intoxicated. We were born into an insane asylum, a world crazy-making. We believe what we see and hear. The real myth is the myth of sanity, of rationality: it's a disease that is eating away at the earth. All the poisons flow from our denial. We deny madness, we forget our crimes, we dismember the corpse, we imprison our children. We need poison to poison the poison, to remember the sacred nature of intoxication, the green body of the young god." ~ Dale Pendell
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DieCommie
El Guapo
Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 25,374
Loc: Street of Dreams
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: gerryjarcia]
#13932831 - 02/09/11 12:22 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Being a cry baby because you cannot commute 20 miles to work every day anymore does not equal collapse or chaos, IMO. I also believe that the change will be gradual and thus easier to cope with.
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fuzzwhatnot
let's go bowling
Registered: 01/04/11
Posts: 66
Last seen: 1 year, 6 months
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: DieCommie] 2
#13932901 - 02/09/11 12:41 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Bro, what about the fact that our food is produced with oil, and cities don't produce enough of anything to sustain themselves? Even if people in rural areas quit their huge commutes and started farming how would you get that shit to market?
Next time you're in the supermarket take a look at all the shit that is there for you to eat that doesn't grow near you or is off season. Your average piece of food travels 1500 miles to make it to your plate, how much will it cost you to eat at $10 a gallon for fuel?
Don't forget too that gasoline is the shittiest petroleum product made. It's a waste product from all the other more profitable items that are manufactured from oil. So if the bottom of the barrel is 10 a gallon what's the top gonna cost? and how does that effect the rest of the system?
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gerryjarcia
biophiliac
Registered: 05/29/10
Posts: 1,862
Loc: the woods
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: fuzzwhatnot]
#13934504 - 02/09/11 05:44 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
fuzzwhatnot said:
Bro, what about the fact that our food is produced with oil, and cities don't produce enough of anything to sustain themselves? Even if people in rural areas quit their huge commutes and started farming how would you get that shit to market?
Next time you're in the supermarket take a look at all the shit that is there for you to eat that doesn't grow near you or is off season. Your average piece of food travels 1500 miles to make it to your plate, how much will it cost you to eat at $10 a gallon for fuel?
Don't forget too that gasoline is the shittiest petroleum product made. It's a waste product from all the other more profitable items that are manufactured from oil. So if the bottom of the barrel is 10 a gallon what's the top gonna cost? and how does that effect the rest of the system?
qft
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"We are all intoxicated. We were born into an insane asylum, a world crazy-making. We believe what we see and hear. The real myth is the myth of sanity, of rationality: it's a disease that is eating away at the earth. All the poisons flow from our denial. We deny madness, we forget our crimes, we dismember the corpse, we imprison our children. We need poison to poison the poison, to remember the sacred nature of intoxication, the green body of the young god." ~ Dale Pendell
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Silversoul
Holon
Registered: 01/01/05
Posts: 22,562
Loc: Mostly harmless
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: fuzzwhatnot]
#13934543 - 02/09/11 05:51 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Fortunately, we reached peak oil on the demand side in 2007, meaning that American demand for oil has been falling since then. If we keep investing in energy efficiency, I think we can win the race against peak oil.
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Prisoner#1
Even Dumber ThanAdvertized!
Registered: 01/22/03
Posts: 168,361
Loc: Pvt. Pubfag NutSuck
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: fuzzwhatnot]
#13934595 - 02/09/11 05:57 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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peak oil may not mean what you believe it to mean
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached
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there are 923 words in the english language that do not follow the "I before E"
rule, there are 44 words in the english language that follow the rule. this is
the shit our education funding is paying for and these liberals want more money
for education to keep making students stupid
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BlindSophist
you can call me BS
Registered: 07/11/06
Posts: 28,279
Loc: SF Bay Area
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: fuzzwhatnot]
#13934648 - 02/09/11 06:05 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Our reserves aren't even halfway used up, and while there are definitely some bullshit "alternatives" to fossil fuel out there, there's also a lot of research being done and a lot of very promising leads into bona fide replacements.
I really don't lie awake at night over this.
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AntiEverything
im not a doctor
Registered: 07/07/06
Posts: 5,688
Last seen: 6 hours, 16 minutes
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Re: anybody on here believe in peak oil? [Re: Yrat] 1
#13934692 - 02/09/11 06:12 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Yrat said:
sustaining the world's population without cheap oil is an impossibility. the human race has figured out how to convert the energy within oil into fertilizer to grow massive amounts of grains for the exponentially increasing population. in essence, our species is feeding off of oil as an energy input, like bacteria growing exponentially on a finite agar plate. we will all be witness to one of the most transformational periods in the history of humanity, hopefully we make it as a species. we are highly adaptable, so i have hope.
while i love your agar analogy, I do not agree. we have been through shit before, we can do it again. "upgrading" to the next form of energy will be as easy as the industrial revolution was. do you think the scientific community is just sitting on its ass waiting for peak oil to occur? fuck no they are developing hundreds of ideas about what will happen post peak oil, its not like we are just sitting with our thumbs in our asses just waiting to hit the peak.
good analogy tho by the way. but i think we at least have the next 100 years covered as far as energy goes so i dont really give a fuck my kids can think about that problem LOL
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“I write differently from what I speak, I speak differently from what I think, I think differently from the way I ought to think, and so it all proceeds into deepest darkness.”
— Franz Kafka
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