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LuckeyMA
I catapult downtown...



Registered: 08/06/09
Posts: 982
Last seen: 1 year, 3 months
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14474125 - 05/18/11 06:16 PM (2 years, 3 days ago) |
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what do people in here think about gold/silver right now? or any other precious metals?
-------------------- "Consciousness survives the death of the body on which it rides"...
*Disclaimer*
Everything written from this account are meant for amusement purposes ONLY. Everything written or posted from this account are NOT TRUE.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Loc: city of angels
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: LuckeyMA]
#14474417 - 05/18/11 07:19 PM (2 years, 3 days ago) |
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Short-term, I think both metals are likely to grind around sideways for a while. What's a while? Well, there's really no way to know, but I would suggest some two to four months. I think the overall bias will then be higher for the long term. However, it is worth noting that if the US Federal Reserve starts to take a more hawkish stance on inflation by intending to raise or in fact raising interest rates, this may lend strength to the dollar which in turn could put pressure on these precious metals. In my opinion, if there is a severe price correction upon the realization of a hawkish Fed, I would use it as a buying opportunity.
Of course, this is all just an informed speculation of how things might play out. Ultimately, I don't know what's going to happen nor do I even have any price target on either of these metals. As of yet, I've only been accumulating physical gold, never sold any. It's an alternative asset class and an important tool for the diversification of your assets, especially in an environment where national and international debts are at the forefront of economic concerns. If you have NO position in these metals and have capital that you want to diversify, I think you could make your initial purchase at today's prices, leaving plenty of room to buy more at a lower price, should a lower price be realized.
I personally don't anticipate buying more unless we see gold at $1350 or lower, or silver at $30 or lower.
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Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 11,313
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: geokills]
#14475166 - 05/18/11 10:07 PM (2 years, 3 days ago) |
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I can't see the Fed raising interest rates high enough any time soon to make any real impact beyond a short term bump for the dollar.
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geokills
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Shins]
#14477693 - 05/19/11 11:47 AM (2 years, 2 days ago) |
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In general I agree with you, but there are many cross currents at work, including the threat of a failing Euro due to indebted member nations that teeter on the brink of default, which would likely result in a flight to the (and strengthening of the) dollar. Ultimately, precious metals have a fundamental basis to propel them higher, but human psychology and thus, market irrationality are real forces that can dislocate prices by significant measures. Other concerns such as margin related regulations that can turn on a dime (which are principle to silver's breathtaking decline over the past few weeks), are not to be underestimated. Though ideally markets are stable and forward looking, there has manifested a lot of myopic near-term focus that has in turn created tremendous noise and volatility in the price action over the past few years. To note, I am by no means discouraging people from holding on to at least some precious metal.
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Yrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,030
Last seen: 17 hours, 40 minutes
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: geokills]
#14477959 - 05/19/11 01:01 PM (2 years, 2 days ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: ...including the threat of a failing Euro due to indebted member nations that teeter on the brink of default, which would likely result in a flight to the (and strengthening of the) dollar.
what about all those dollar states that are also teetering on the brink of default 
fiat currencies in general are woefully overloaded with unfunded obligations. governments throughout history have only chosen one way out of such scenarios...
-------------------- "There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root
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Stonehenge
enthusiast

Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 3,771
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: geokills]
#14478047 - 05/19/11 01:23 PM (2 years, 2 days ago) |
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meams, looking back over my comments i think they were excessively sarcastic. I didn't mean it that way, it was my little attempt at humor. It was not meant as an attack of any sort, hope you didn't take it that way.
Those are valid points, geo. I think you are correct in what you say. IMO, the main thing keeping the dollar from going into a death spiral is the severe weakness of the euro and of the eu in general. It isn't just portugal, greece and ireland that must be propped up, other countries are doing poorly too. Ireland may not be part of the eu but there are intertwining agreements and investments that make it important to the eu to keep them alive. German is tired of taking so much of the burden. If they pulled out or just refused to go along with any more bailouts, it could bean chaos for the euro.
A falling euro may prop up the dollar in the short run but our enormous debt and debt to gnp ratio is bad news. The politicians show no sign of being willing to work together to lower the deficit let alone reduce debt. They seem content to let things go to hell and blame the other side. Geo, you are correct in that all fiat currencies throughout history have lost all their value eventually. That's what i mean by major inflation. If you need a wheelbarrow of dollars to buy a weeks groceries, then your wage better be thousands per hour and the cost of everything goes way up.
I think gold and silver will rise majorly in the long run. I was saying this back when the speculation was whether or not gold would pass 1000. It passed that and never looked back. Don't be fooled by little price adjustments. The game players and technicians can do a little but they can do nothing about the long term trend which is up. I bought fairly heavily several years ago in gold and in hindsight i should have bought more but it was a gamble at the time. Gold had been around 300 or less for years and years and to buy at 4 something was taking the chance it would drop back. I have a little silver but not anything to talk about. It's too bulky. I too have not sold any of my gold.
Rather than put more into gold i decided to diversify into real estate. Just over a year ago all i owned was my own home. Today i have 4 of them all paid for free and clear. If ss goes bankrupt along with medicare, i will have my rents coming in and gold as a backup. I still hope to pick up another property or two before the end of the year.
No one is interested in govt programs that help you get into a home cheap and easy? If you pay rent you should be interested. Rent can go as high as the sky if inflation hits. With a mortgage your payments are locked in at the old value of the dollar. That alone is a major advantage. They can't raise your payments unless you have an adjustable interest rate. I would go with a fixed rate for sure. You will surely see the value of the home go up, maybe way up and the size of your payments may go way down in relation to your income. Wages go up but rarely keep pace with inflation. Still, it's better than being on a fixed income like ss and that's all you've got.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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meams
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 17,432
Loc: In a Tree
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: geokills]
#14478636 - 05/19/11 03:27 PM (2 years, 2 days ago) |
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Quote:
Stonehenge said: meams, looking back over my comments i think they were excessively sarcastic. I didn't mean it that way, it was my little attempt at humor. It was not meant as an attack of any sort, hope you didn't take it that way.
Well, I originally took them that way, due to our history of arguing over central bank roles, etc. But now that I know otherwise, horray! I see no reason why we can't get along outside of Fed threads
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 17,709
Loc: city of angels
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Yrat]
#14481344 - 05/19/11 11:55 PM (2 years, 1 day ago) |
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Quote:
Yrat said:
what about all those dollar states that are also teetering on the brink of default 
Of course, but as the US is still the world's primary consumer as well as having the most military power, it makes sense that the dollar will likely be the last reserve currency to fail. It is not within the aggregate global interest to allow the dollar to fail, and so there will be kicking and screaming, riots and protests, this and that, for a very long while before we actually see a complete failure or default on the US dollar. Put plainly, the world's most powerful nations (and by extension, nearly all nations) have too great a vested interest in the dollar to let it fail without first attempting every extreme whacky measure in the book in attempts to prop it up. In conclusion, I wouldn't hold our breath on a dollar collapse, though no doubt we are already dealing with the related repercussions of our collective fiscal irresponsibility.
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meams
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 17,432
Loc: In a Tree
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: geokills]
#14481926 - 05/20/11 01:51 AM (2 years, 1 day ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: though no doubt we are already dealing with the related repercussions of our collective fiscal irresponsibility.
qft
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Stonehenge
enthusiast

Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 3,771
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: meams]
#14560976 - 06/04/11 07:13 PM (1 year, 11 months ago) |
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The repubs are offering obumbles and crew a deal. Dollar for dollar they will raise the debt ceiling in exchange for budget cuts. No scams, no proposing a huge spending increase and then taking a little cut out of that. It has to be an actual cut. I'm not sure what it will be based on but a real cut of a few hundred billion would go a long way to reassure the world that we are on solid ground.
Anyone notice how gold has been doing lately? The stock market has been stumbling but gold refuses to dive. Sometimes the market goes down and gold goes up. When gold goes up and oil goes down, i like it. I even like it when oil dives and gold goes down a little.
My latest adventure in investing is a 3-1 block house with cha, almost 1400 sq' and in a nice area. They are only asking 29.9. The catch is that it needs a lot of work but not all that much. It needs a roof, interior drywall work, paint, carpet and a few other things. I figure a min of 6k to fix it up and i get them fixed cheap. I might be able to beat that figure but it might go higher.
My agent says they have 5 offers already which will be presented monday to the bank which owns it. I'll have to go higher than 30 to even have a chance. I might go as high as 35, i'll have to do some more research.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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Stonehenge
enthusiast

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Posts: 3,771
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14569153 - 06/06/11 02:17 PM (1 year, 11 months ago) |
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Gold went over 1550 today before it settled back down just below that figure. The dow is down and gold is up. Do you see any pattern here? The bad news is the politicians can't seem to work out an agreement on cutting spending. I think the repubs are wrong to want to cut taxes on upper earners while keeping them the same for low earners. The demos are way wrong to try to increase spending while we are in a recession which might tip into a depression and we have that huge debt and deficit to deal with. One thing is certain besides death and taxes. Inflation.
That house i was looking at turned out to be a lot smaller than i thought. It said over 1300' but it seemed a lot smaller. I checked the tax records and they agreed it was that size. I studied over the records which can be hard to interpret. Looking at the diagram of the house, i tried to visualize where the various rooms were on it. Then i saw a living area at the back of the house which i didn't see in my inspection. All that was there was a concrete slab about 20' x 20'. Something was there and perhaps got destroyed in a storm and removed. The house was actually around 900'. But the realtor who listed it said it was over 1300 square feet. A mistake? I bet if the realtor was thinking about buying it he would spot that instantly.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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Terillius
Renaissance Man


Registered: 07/21/06
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Loc: UT
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14593409 - 06/11/11 12:56 AM (1 year, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Stonehenge said: Yeah, i'm in a good area for buying r/e.
Today i just put in 2 more offers. Both on concrete block houses. One was 800', 3-1 with cha but the outside unit was gone. It had some termite damage on the outside but not throughout the house. One room had a lot of drywall damage. But, it had tile floors thoughout and they looked nice. The bathroom was nice, tile and everything. They were asking 41.9 which is ridiculous, after 7 months on the market they finally dropped to 27.9. I offered 26.1.
The other one is 3-2, cha, 1100' tile floors, nice thoughout. Needs fridge and stove, some work on a couple interior walls and paint but thats about it. Nice attic, roof looks ok, the other one had almost a flat roof with no attic access. They were asking 33.5 and had several offers already. I offered 38.1 with 5k earnest money and could close in 14 days. It's a corner lot and has a large storage shed in back. I doubt i'll get it, i might not get either and the other one has an offer on it too.
They are both in the area where my other investment properties are. The nicer one will rent for 900 easy and the little one for 750. I could probably get more than that. Even after fixup i'll make 20% or more on rent. The guy who did the kitchen and the other job i let him do the floor on another house.
Where are you that someone will pay $900 to rent a house worth 40K? Did I read that wrong?
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Stonehenge
enthusiast

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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Terillius]
#14618453 - 06/15/11 06:34 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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I'm in an area with lots of foreclosures. I have a 3-1 now that i'm getting 850 a month on and i paid 36 for it. I have about another total 2.5 in it fixing it up.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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Stonehenge
enthusiast

Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 3,771
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Stonehenge]
#15880521 - 02/29/12 11:55 AM (1 year, 2 months ago) |
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I thought i would give a little update on things for those interested in the real estate market. I'm in the s.e. area.
All properties have been fixed up and rented. I'm seeing a return of about 20% after expenses. I priced them kind of low so i could pick from a good crop of tenants. I have lots of room to ease the rent up later to keep pace with inflation.
Yesterday i placed offers on 2 properties and have a chance of getting both. The first was a little strange overall, decent house, 3-1-1, block, cha, decent location, 900', and has a good size lot of over 6000' with nice trees and fenced in back yard. The previous owner is still living there. Seems like a nice person and i told her she could stay long as she pays rent. She is facing eviction and does not want to move. I placed a couple offers which were informally rejected, finally this morning offered 37.1 which is what the bank had paid or refied it for not long ago and i was told the reserve was met. The agent thinks i got it but still some paperwork before its official. It will need some work but nothing major.
Second property also in a nice area, also block, tile roof, newer cha, they say it has been remodeled but have not been inside, just peaked through the windows. A little larger than the other at 1000+ ft, lot is a little smaller and needs some work. I offered full price and we will see.
In geo's area you can't get a lean-to on a spit of land for that kind of money and its a little cheap even for here. When it rains it pours. I have never offered on a property before without going inside first and looking around. Now in one day i did it twice. The lady had stories about how i could not go in up to now but i'm supposed to see it tonight or early tomorrow. I have not put up the earnest money yet on either so i still have some wiggle room but i would like to get both.
These are both properties i can easily make 20% return on just with rent and property values are going up. After it hits the bottom it doesn't have a lot of directions to go. It can go sideways but sooner or later it goes back up and regardless of when that happens, people have to live somewhere. I figure odds are against me of getting both, good chance of getting one and its still possible not to get either.
I heard that high officials are putting pressure on banks which got a bailout not to dump too many foreclosures on the market until after the election to make a certain politician look good. I wonder who that might be?
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/07/06
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Stonehenge]
#15881370 - 02/29/12 03:57 PM (1 year, 2 months ago) |
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One of the main concerns my father has as a landlord (selling the property in 4 weeks) is the higher cost of livings for tenants.
When energy,food and general living expenses go higher with weak employment and flat wages, his tenants have less money available for rent.
This really means that hiking rents is a risky bet in this environment and makes real estate investing less appealing. Also, a weak job market means tenant selection is beyond important. He rejects tons of people with bad credit, even if they make $70,000 per year.
Back in the 80's and 90's, we had a great environment for real estate, we had growing wages, property values moving higher, and true economic growth, but that has all changed.
Explain to me how you calculate your 20% on investment, and what concerns you have going forward, as we know every investment has its pro and cons, especially in this economic environment.
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Stonehenge
enthusiast

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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: qman]
#15882113 - 02/29/12 07:00 PM (1 year, 2 months ago) |
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I agree about checking their credit and being picky. They have to have a job or jobs and no recent bad credit. I always get first last and security before they move in. If they don't pay, i can start eviction within 15 days and have them out in from a month to 6 weeks from the due date that they missed depending on the court calendar. I tell them this upfront. I haven't had to do it in a long time but now i have more units to rent.
I figure the cost of the house including fix up costs. Ongoing costs include property taxes, maintenance and what not. I am figuring fairly full occupancy but they are fully occupied and each signed a 1 year lease. The one lease that ran out already they still like being there so the small increase in rent won't come until the fall which is the start of the season here, summer being off season.
I just got word that the 44.9k house is mine if i want it. I will inspect it tomorrow and give my answer. On the other house they want to wait another 13 days and leave it on the market. I withdrew my offer and will resubmit it later.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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Stonehenge
enthusiast

Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 3,771
Loc: S.E.
Last seen: 2 hours, 8 minutes
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Stonehenge]
#15904953 - 03/05/12 07:56 PM (1 year, 2 months ago) |
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The job market might be weak, unemployment is certainly much higher than the official 8 point whatever they claim but people have to live somewhere. If you aren't getting the rent you want then its either overpriced or in a less attractive neighborhood. The 'hood is very important. As i say, i'm getting my 20% and after the units are fixed up and rented usually most of the work is done.
The 45k unit turned out to have cracks in the exterior wall. Not huge, about 8' long and 1/4" wide. But that indicates the ground is settling and that is a major concern. I tried turning on the water which was turned off at the house. All i got was a funny noise from the taps. Could be the pipes going through the slab got broken when the slab gave way. I walked away from that one.
The other one is still a possibility and i will likely make an offer in the next week or so. I managed to get inside for a look, probably the only investor to get that far. Had a nice talk with the former owner who is holding over. I'm still looking, might could use 2 and this one may not pan out.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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Stonehenge
enthusiast

Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 3,771
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Last seen: 2 hours, 8 minutes
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Stonehenge]
#15937899 - 03/12/12 03:58 PM (1 year, 2 months ago) |
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I still don't know about the block house i made the offer on a week or so back. I should hear about that middle of next week.
I told my agent to put in an offer on a house i looked at today. Its small, 600' 2-1 concrete block with window ac units. Its a little rough but not too bad. I think 1k or so will fix it up. They want 24.9, i'm offering a little more than that. I can rent it for 700 a month i think with minimal fix up. Definitely 650 a month at the least. That is still 20% return because 650 = 7,800 a year minus taxes is about 6k+. 5 years of that and i have my money back plus fix up costs plus allowance for an occasional month empty and maintenance. Long as i have my bitches turning in 20% a year i'm happy. I don't ever have to sell if i'm getting that.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/07/06
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Stonehenge]
#15938223 - 03/12/12 05:21 PM (1 year, 2 months ago) |
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A house that costs 25k, where the hell is this? And then the ability to get $650 per month from it?
The numbers seem to good to be true, what is so wrong with this property that it is selling for 25k? What was this house worth in the past?
Many homes in the 150k range can only generate $1000-!200 per month, that would give the property a PE of around 14.
If these numbers are accurate, you got some nice investment opportunity, as you know I on not optimistic on real estate, but if the numbers make sense where you live, then maybe you have something.
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geokills
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Re: What is the best investment right now? Stocks, RE, gold, etc? [Re: Stonehenge]
#15941331 - 03/13/12 10:29 AM (1 year, 2 months ago) |
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I don't know that this will affect you necessarily, but it is something to consider: http://www.cnbc.com/id/46707036
The general gist of the article is that rental prices have been increasing at about the same rate that home prices have been decreasing; and that ultimately, this will start to drive renters to begin purchasing homes, thereby bringing the price relationship closer to equilibrium. What is occurring now with rents going up while house prices go down is unusual, and it obviously stands to reason that people paying higher rent will begin to bail once they realize that they can buy their own home for less with a low interest mortgage.
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