Home | Community | Message Board

World Seed Supply
This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: Bridgetown Botanicals CBD Concentrates   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder, Kratom Powder for Sale

Jump to first unread post Pages: 1 | 2 | Next >  [ show all ]
OfflineAnonymousRabbit
Comrade
 User Gallery

Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 1 year, 6 months
.
    #9125678 - 10/24/08 09:19 AM (15 years, 5 months ago)

.


--------------------
.

Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/18/22 11:25 PM)

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleLayYouIn
Taurus
Male User Gallery

Registered: 09/28/06
Posts: 4,402
Loc: Organ
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #9125796 - 10/24/08 09:57 AM (15 years, 5 months ago)

:shocked:

what does a person do?  :confused::crazy::frown:

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinephi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 10 months
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: LayYouIn]
    #9125889 - 10/24/08 10:13 AM (15 years, 5 months ago)

If you have a job, keep it and save some money just in case.
If you don't have a job, find one.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisibletruekimbo2
Cya later, friends.
Male User Gallery


Registered: 12/08/02
Posts: 9,234
Loc: ny Flag
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: phi1618]
    #9125892 - 10/24/08 10:14 AM (15 years, 5 months ago)

lol, gold plunged.  oh well wiccan.


--------------------
You can check the last post in my journal for contact info.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleVirus_with_Shoes
Pastor of Muppets
Male User Gallery


Registered: 01/25/07
Posts: 3,707
Loc: Zuid-Holland, Nederland
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #9126912 - 10/24/08 01:16 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

This ship is sinking fast. :shake: How long till we reach 1929 now?


--------------------

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: Virus_with_Shoes]
    #9127385 - 10/24/08 02:56 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

I'm waiting a little longer and then getting into stocks and real estate. I will wait longer on the real estate because I think it has at least a year if not longer to hit bottom. This could be a chance to clean up when things get better. People will say "you could get ford for $2 back then??"


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleSFsorrow
Is Born
Male User Gallery

Registered: 11/11/07
Posts: 259
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9128233 - 10/24/08 05:45 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
People will say "you could get ford for $2 back then??"




I think people will look back at a time when Ford was an independent company and remember fond times of rapid growth and easy credit. I'm not fond of any company looking for government bailout to stay afloat. The Detroit auto industry is still in for a world of hurt even with falling gas prices.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleShins
Fun guy
Male User Gallery


Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: LayYouIn]
    #9128366 - 10/24/08 06:18 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

LayYouIn said:
:shocked:

what does a person do?  :confused::crazy::frown:




buy gold. if you can find any


--------------------
http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleShins
Fun guy
Male User Gallery


Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: truekimbo2]
    #9128376 - 10/24/08 06:20 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

truekimbo2 said:
lol, gold plunged.  oh well wiccan.




gold has hardly "plunged"  and this is a relatively short term trend.  its still way up long term, and i beleive in the future long term, it will bounce back up to new record highs.


--------------------
http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleLayYouIn
Taurus
Male User Gallery

Registered: 09/28/06
Posts: 4,402
Loc: Organ
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: Shins]
    #9128425 - 10/24/08 06:31 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Shins said:
Quote:

LayYouIn said:
:shocked:

what does a person do?  :confused::crazy::frown:




buy gold. if you can find any




i canceled my order of gold.  but i recieve my silver next week.  what do you think?

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleShins
Fun guy
Male User Gallery


Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: LayYouIn]
    #9128460 - 10/24/08 06:37 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

well, silver is seen as more of an industrial metal, with money so tight most investors lean towards gold as a safe haven, silver is getting stomped.

that said, im still buying silver (lol) because i believe in the long run it will reverse and reach record highs.

the gold to silver price ratio is ridiculously high right now. if you can take the downswings without getting too emotional i think silver's a good investment.  just hold tight for now,  or sell on ebay, people will pay up to and over $20 an ounce on there.


--------------------
http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblezorbman
blarrr
Male

Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: Shins]
    #9129456 - 10/24/08 11:19 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

You are a smart fellow, Shins.

And great minds think alike with the same sigs, eh? :grin:

Yeah, the gold-to-silver ratio traditionally runs around 15:1 if memory serves so I am also looking for that to return to norms especially after all the funny money the Fed has been printing the last few weeks.

Personally, I am planning for an official recession in the latter part of this year ala' my avatar title followed by a false recovery next year due to the Fed's re-inflating the economy which may last 12-18 months.

Inflation is already baked into the cake- prepare now by buying PMs at these ridiculously low prices.

So next year we will have the illusion of growth (which is in reality inflation) and an Indian Summer. Winter may hit hard and brutally fast while most people are caught outdoors. People have an unmatched opportunity to load up now on precious metals- it will be the last time in years that you will see their price at these levels.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

Edited by zorbman (10/25/08 01:19 AM)

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: zorbman]
    #9129525 - 10/24/08 11:37 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

"The good news for consumers is that falling energy prices are driving the deceleration of consumer prices and may even push the economy into deflation in the short term. With both jobs and wage incomes falling, however, and with the collapse of the financial system still jeopardizing retirement savings, the reduction in consumer prices will be cold comfort. Nevertheless, not even the inflation hawks at the Fed will be able to claim that inflation is still a danger for the U.S. after the last two months of consumer price data."

http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/release.asp?r=usa_cpi

check out the Core CPI, Core finished goods PPI, and PCE Deflator.  Inflation is not a current issue.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblezorbman
blarrr
Male

Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: memes]
    #9129899 - 10/25/08 01:02 AM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Your link was to an article only viewable by paid subscribers.

Are you maintaining that being on our present pace to doubling the money supply about every four years will not result in inflation?

Quote:

Inflation is not a current issue.




An iceberg was not the current issue until the Titanic struck one.

Those numbers are only visible in the rear view mirror.

One tends to have accidents when looking backwards. Just look at the expansion of the money supply and it will give you a pretty accurate reading looking forward into the future.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

Edited by zorbman (10/25/08 01:28 AM)

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleShins
Fun guy
Male User Gallery


Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: Shins]
    #9131336 - 10/25/08 11:34 AM (15 years, 5 months ago)

i believe we are in a deflationary period. while yes, HUGE amounts of money are being created on a daily basis,  even MORE credit is vanishing due to over leveraged loan defaults creating an amplified "cascade" affect.


for example, because of fractional reserve requirements banks can effectively create 10x the original loan amount.  Now thats pretty inflationary, but if someone defaults on say, the origonal loan, it can create a clusterfuck of defaults and margin calls! and can DESTROY 10x the amount as well, know what i mean?

plus i creates a high demand for dollars.  that's why the dollar is going so high right now and commodities are going lower relatively.


the fact that gold has only dropped ~25% or less shows that there is still alot of bullish sentiment, and i'm confident once they "fix" this mess, gold will skyrocket.


theres basically 2 options here, hyper deflation, or hyper inflation. one means a depression/recession, the later will just bump back a recession a few months.



damn! we're in a tight spot!


--------------------
http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleLuddite
I watch Fox News
 User Gallery

Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: Shins]
    #9131620 - 10/25/08 12:34 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

David Kotok explains the forced selling in this video.  He thinks we are at the peak of liquidation.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=902554322&play=1

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 5 months
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #9134739 - 10/25/08 11:22 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

It's crazy how gold AND the dollar AND stocks are falling. Nothing is safe to store your wealth.




The dollar is going down?  Compared to what? (Other than the yen...)

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinephi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 10 months
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: Luddite]
    #9135862 - 10/26/08 08:16 AM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Luddite said:
David Kotok explains the forced selling in this video.  He thinks we are at the peak of liquidation.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=902554322&play=1




Interesting link, and pertinent.
:shocked:

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: phi1618]
    #9141504 - 10/27/08 11:32 AM (15 years, 5 months ago)

typed this up in the other deflation thread:

deflation will be probably be short term and insubstantial.  The Fed will cut rates on wednesday down to 1%, to start things off.

One of their main concerns is eliminating all traces of deflation expectation, since they essentially bring the economy to a grinding halt [nobody buys thing today because it's assumed they'll be cheaper tomorrow / banks love to lend, since interest rates are low and look desirable, but in reality the borrower gets fucked:  Borrowing at a 4% loan in times of 3% deflation means you have to pay back a real interest rate of 7%].

Now, to combat deflation, they have an array of policy tools.  First and foremost, a lowering of the fed funds rate.  This literally pumps cash into the economy, and immediately inserts inflation expectations (since, quite simply, they cause inflation).  Now a lot of people see problems with this - purposefully causing inflation.  However, it's simply a cost/benefit analysis:  They take the cost of inflation since they receieve the benefit of lower interest rates - and thus increased economic activity.

The problem with our current spot is we may be nearing (or possibly are already in) the situation of a "liquidity trap".  In these instances, injecting cash via open market operations fails to have any real effect on interest rates.  In these instances, we expect to see more action in terms of Fiscal policy, which increases the velocity of money in the system, driving up the money multiplier (that means expect another tax rebate check).

The credit markets are thawing, and once they do and our price measures reverse and start heading upwards you can be ABSOLUTELY SURE that the Fed will immediately reverse policy to start sucking up the excess liquidity they have been pumping into the system to fight deflation.  Failure to act quickly in reversing policy is what has been debated as getting us here in the first place: in 2004 when Greenspan kept the fed funds target at 1% for over 12months... causing banks to have to seek out subprime loans in order to achieve desirable returns.

/ramble

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 5 months
Re: Deflationary Recession is here: Gold, the dollar, stocks, and oil down. Dow Futures Stopped [Re: memes]
    #9144908 - 10/27/08 09:32 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

meams said:
Failure to act quickly in reversing policy is what has been debated as getting us here in the first place: in 2004 when Greenspan kept the fed funds target at 1% for over 12months... causing banks to have to seek out subprime loans in order to achieve desirable returns.





"have to" is a pretty strong term here--as if greed leading to poor risk-analysis had nothing to do with it... 

Banks were making billions of dollars just in fees and could have survived on that revenue alone.  Look at the banks left standing today (Wells Fargo for example) to see how the others could have handled themselves.  A major savings and loan bank shouldn't increase it's exposure to risk of completely capsizing merely to sustain profits in bad times, doing so is irresponsible to their shareholders and depositors.  Rather, greed led to short-sightedness, led to irrational acceptance of risk, led to banks doing things they shouldn't (including not only sub-prime lending, but investing in risky funds with depositors' money--which by the way was illegal until relatively recently).

But I agree that deflation will only last a little while.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: 1 | 2 | Next >  [ show all ]

Shop: Bridgetown Botanicals CBD Concentrates   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder, Kratom Powder for Sale


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Buying gold
( 1 2 3 4 5 all )
Corporal Kielbasa 16,914 80 03/17/08 11:08 PM
by Dickhead
* Stock Traders: What are your positions?!
( 1 2 3 all )
geokillsA 12,885 48 01/28/06 10:40 PM
by LiquidSmoke
* Got $7,500 to invest...help?
( 1 2 3 all )
gogrowgo123 11,563 45 04/03/08 06:28 PM
by Techno_Raver
* Don't Confuse Hyperinflation with Extra High Inflation Yrat 958 4 08/09/10 11:53 AM
by Mr.Al
* The Global Slowdown memes 2,078 17 02/10/15 10:03 PM
by memes
* Economic crisis explained in simple language
( 1 2 3 4 all )
zorbman 7,390 67 02/15/09 05:01 PM
by Silversoul
* The nightmare after Christmas Yrat 368 0 12/26/11 08:45 AM
by Yrat
* Investments ClammyJoe 1,498 5 02/04/07 06:05 PM
by Prisoner#1

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: geokills, automan
4,342 topic views. 0 members, 0 guests and 0 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.03 seconds spending 0.007 seconds on 15 queries.