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Invisibleextreme
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20710636 - 10/16/14 12:24 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

Cool, thanks for the input!  Sounds like a gamble haha.  I feel like they'll still be used for some time to come and for the most part they've just gone up up and up since they were first created, but who's to say that trend will continue for a long period of time :strokebeard:

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OnlineBaby_Hitler
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: extreme]
    #20711206 - 10/16/14 02:26 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)



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"America: Fuck yeah!" -- Alexthegreat

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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: extreme]
    #20711289 - 10/16/14 02:50 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

extreme said:
and for the most part they've just gone up up and up since they were first created, but who's to say that trend will continue for a long period of time :strokebeard:





you'd say that, 'eh?


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Invisibleextreme
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: memes]
    #20711392 - 10/16/14 03:09 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

memes said:
Quote:

extreme said:
and for the most part they've just gone up up and up since they were first created, but who's to say that trend will continue for a long period of time :strokebeard:





you'd say that, 'eh?






I guess it was more of an assumption, I know they've trended downwards at times.  That's why I asked here, I haven't followed their ups and downs real closely I just thought the general gist of things is that overall they're moving upwards.  I feel that a lot of systems are reliant on BTC, and I feel like those systems will continue to be used for a while, so I can't really see BTC dying out anytime soon, but those are just the impressions I get.

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OfflineManianFH
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: extreme]
    #20711848 - 10/16/14 04:33 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

I am thinking of putting a third of my portfolio (about $1800) into crude (USO). I am with scottrade and believe this is the closest i can come to trading the commodity.

Am going to wait and see if it continues to dip. If it hits at or below $50 a barrel I will definitely take a position


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: ManianFH]
    #20712691 - 10/16/14 07:20 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

Here's a list of ETF's (including leveraged ETF's) that maintain some correlation to the price of crude: http://etfdb.com/type/commodity/energy/crude-oil/

I'd be surprised to see oil get down to $50, but who knows?  With the recent economic viability of extracting oil from shale (e.g. fracking), the US has been expected to overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world's largest oil producer.  Of course, OPEC nations don't like this, so it seems that the cartel is wilfully inducing a bear market on oil prices by keeping their spigots wide open, effectively flooding the market with supply in a time of global economic contraction, which drives down the price per barrel to a point that could make US shale extraction no longer viable; or in the least, will slow the aggressive investment and expansion into this sector for a prolonged period of time.

Dirty tricks, but that's how the world works.  I heard from the CEO of one of the US based shale companies (when oil was over $100), that they are comfortable exploiting shale assets so long as oil is above $80 a barrel.  Well, we're now hovering right around $80 a barrel.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20713910 - 10/17/14 12:45 AM (9 years, 5 months ago)

:shrug:

so they hibernate until it's profitable to extract again?

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Invisiblethescientist
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20714802 - 10/17/14 09:40 AM (9 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Here's a list of ETF's (including leveraged ETF's) that maintain some correlation to the price of crude: http://etfdb.com/type/commodity/energy/crude-oil/

I'd be surprised to see oil get down to $50, but who knows?  With the recent economic viability of extracting oil from shale (e.g. fracking), the US has been expected to overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world's largest oil producer.  Of course, OPEC nations don't like this, so it seems that the cartel is wilfully inducing a bear market on oil prices by keeping their spigots wide open, effectively flooding the market with supply in a time of global economic contraction, which drives down the price per barrel to a point that could make US shale extraction no longer viable; or in the least, will slow the aggressive investment and expansion into this sector for a prolonged period of time.

Dirty tricks, but that's how the world works.  I heard from the CEO of one of the US based shale companies (when oil was over $100), that they are comfortable exploiting shale assets so long as oil is above $80 a barrel.  Well, we're now hovering right around $80 a barrel.






Soooooo, the US increases production drastically and it is OPEC's fault that the increased supply is driving prices down?

If the US had higher quality reserves available with a lower production cost, I dont think anyone would be crying about us undercutting eastern producers.

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: thescientist]
    #20715330 - 10/17/14 12:05 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

Not trying to place exclusive fault here, just elucidating one of the dynamics that is influencing the negative pressure on oil prices.  I should be clear that the middle eastern oil complex keeping their production high (which includes the US influenced Iraq steadily increasing their production), works in conjunction with the ramp up in US oil production overlaying weaker global demand to put pressure on the commodity price.  The fact that an organized group of nations (OPEC) may be conspiring to maintain their leadership in oil production by riding these macro factors to increase the existing supply glut, reduce the spot price and thereby reduce investment in, specifically, shale based oil exploration, is just one aspect that I believe people don't often think about.

I only mention it because if you are trying to hand pick investments in the oil complex, the US based shale players might be under pressure for a while.  mick's approach of utilizing a diversified ETF might be one of the better ways to play a normalization of oil prices with a reduced risk profile.  However, one particular stock that I am watching is SDRL, a ocean drilling company that has been crushed this year and as recently as late August confirmed that they will continue to pay out a $1/share quarterly dividend, which equates to a ~17% annual yield at current prices.  Whether that dividend is in fact sustainable should oil prices continue to falter is anybody's guess (the market, it would seem, is voting that it is not, by continuing to sell the stock).  But this could be an attractive entry to start building a position for a long term income generating position.

Disclosure: Long XOP via a Jan 2014 $55/$65 bull call spread.

In other more macro analysis, the market has had a nice bounce over the later half of this week, but it looks like investors are starting to capture some of this bounce and lighten up their exposure before we go into the weekend.  Can't say I blame them, there is a lot of overhead resistance, and I don't expect the market to propel to new highs any time soon.  The S&P is testing 1900 now, which I doubt it will close above today, and even if we do see it ultimately break above that level, I would expect further selling to resume at around 1925-1935ish on the S&P.  In my estimation, this "lower high" will likely manifest next week.  But if the news is really bad come Monday, it might actually be manifesting today with the lower high right at the S&P's 200 day moving average near 1900.


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OfflineManianFH
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20715984 - 10/17/14 03:07 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

Thanks for your insight Geo.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."

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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: ManianFH]
    #20717066 - 10/17/14 06:57 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

i always click into MM just to see if Geo's updated anything in here.  I like to weigh his macroanalysis of the world against my own

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Invisibleelax420
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: memes]
    #20720399 - 10/18/14 01:54 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

Ya he always has informative posts.


I have a question though why do you think the low oil prices signal signal a problem with supply? You said yourself the market is going through a contractionary period, so wouldn’t that signal weak growth, and a lack of Demand? You think OPEC is increasing production to cut out the oil producers that run on lower margins which isn’t a bad idea, but it seems like you are assuming Demand is staying constant. Isn’t that an incredibly risky play by OPEC? I thought most of their oil is supposed to dry up in the next 20-30 years anyway.



Granted I don’t follow the markets nearly as closely as you do, but i have been reading a lot about China and India really slowing down their growth. Plus Tesla and Hybrids are a standard on any American road these days. The numbers you need to look are consumption.

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: elax420]
    #20722323 - 10/18/14 09:44 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

why do you think the low oil prices signal signal a problem with supply?




On the contrary, there are more than adequate supplies, which in conjunction with the slowing global economy has been accelerating the negative pressure on the price of crude oil.  You are correct that if OPEC is indeed maintaining and continues to push high production in efforts to willfully drive the price down to a point that slows or halts other up and coming oil exploration and production, it is very risky.  Frankly, they almost surely don't have the same level of influence on the market that they once did, precisely because of all the other non-OPEC production that has come online during the past decade... so while it is interesting to speculate on these matters, there are too many moving parts to consider any one player or strategy solely responsible for what is happening with the price of oil.  It is nevertheless a good idea to be mindful of these moving parts and how they relate to one another.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20723394 - 10/19/14 08:37 AM (9 years, 5 months ago)

So interesting we used to complain that Saudi Arabia etc. would cut production to keep oil prices up at our expense, and now we complain that Saudi Arabia etc. is increasing oil production to lower oil prices at our expense.  Those bastard Arabs.


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Anxiety is what you make it.

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20742196 - 10/23/14 09:42 AM (9 years, 5 months ago)

I am very impressed to see how quickly and thoroughly this market has bounced from the lows of only a week ago.  Small and mid caps are bumping into resistance at their 200 and 50 day moving averages, but the majors (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq) have all either held or recovered their 200 day averages, which seems significant.  I still think the S&P futures contract will see some selling at 1960 (1965 on the S&P cash contract - also home of its 50 day moving average), but honestly I thought we would have seen more selling way before this level and we simply haven't.  Makes me wish I had been more aggressive last week, but no going back, only lookin' forward.

AAPL, MDVN, and ALXN - my three largest positions - have performed admirably, but I really missed the boat on a few others I follow (FB, SUNE, TRIP, SWKS and PCLN come to mind).  I'll be on vacation until the end of the month, so it is unlikely I will be trading until November.  In the meanwhile, I can't imagine the S&P will regain its highs, but I was wrong about the ferocity of the bounce thus far, and when the market does what you don't expect, it's important not to ignore it.  It is also important however, not to get sucked into a big bounce during the late innings.


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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20752012 - 10/25/14 02:58 PM (9 years, 5 months ago)

I was expecting it to bounce back. The major fears driving it down were kind of unfounded. Ebola, europe being flimsy financially. I think the market is in good standing now (somewhat). No matter how much she plummets days after it's always picking up the scraps.

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Offlinekatsung47
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: Gorlax]
    #20785314 - 11/02/14 06:42 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Years ago, I have written a series of articles about stock. I think it fits this thread about the stock.

2. Stock is no other than a piece of paper

The value of stock market is supported by continue coming of investment fund. One thing you should know the people who hold the stock is no other then hold a piece of paper. That's a bubble. When no money came, then the bubble will break up.

When you deposit 100 dollars in the bank, you are guaranteed to get that deposit back, plus interest.

When you buy one hundred dollars of shares of a company, you are told you probably get some dividend sometime if business is good. The dividend is not guaranteed. And you can not cash the stock with the company. Because they have spent it to pay rent, wage and equipment already. If you liquidate the company, most time you may get a negative asset. e.g. if it's Microsoft, what they left for you is a program of Windows. UA may have some airplanes. But they always come with a huge debt. What kind of asset do Kodak and McDonald have for the stock they issued? What you hold finally could be a piece of paper. What you hope is someone else would buy that paper from you to take over your potential loss. When people put all their retirement fund in stock market, they are sitting on a big bubble. All they hold is a bunch of paper. One day when people wake up and refuse to behave like a fool, then there will be a collapse of stock market.

What Bush does is to persuade people put their retirement fund into the market to take over the hot potatoes.

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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for October 10, 2014 [Re: katsung47]
    #20788106 - 11/03/14 01:11 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

that was an excellent 3rd grade essay on the Stock Marke

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for November 6, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20800635 - 11/06/14 09:39 AM (9 years, 4 months ago)

I am still a bit dumbfounded with how quickly the market corrected and bounced to hit new highs :toomuchacid:.  But as I have noted, when the market does what you don't expect, you had better take note and remind yourself that absolute commitment to your expectation often precedes a loss of your trading capital.  In other words, don't let your desire to be right prevent you from admitting that you were wrong and adjusting your strategy accordingly.

It seems that the Bank of Japan has been handed the baton from the Federal Reserve in the great Ponzi Relay Race, and quantitative easing will remain alive and well in the world's capital markets.  If the ECB follows suit, I would expect the market to run even higher.  Nevertheless, even with the market hitting all time highs this week, we are still in the zone of resistance and it seems appropriate for the market to at least take a pause here, if not retrace to the downside a bit.  Volatility is cyclical, and we had a tremendous amount of it in October, so it is natural to expect that the market calms down here for at least a little bit as it digests these rapid swings.  Thus, while this bounce has served as a reminder of why it is important to stay involved, I would not race to put all of my capital to work at this level, even as it seems that the market has reasserted its longer term uptrend and likely has more room to move to the upside.  The counter thought here is that big fund managers are now lagging the market, because it's exceptionally hard to make money in an environment like we saw in October (I myself gave back 2/3 of the gains I had this year - even as the market in aggregate is now setting new all time highs), and therefore there may be a tendency to chase stocks into the end of the year in attempts to play catch up.


On that note, I am wading into a few new trades here, with cautious optimism, a measured pace and of course, tight stops.

  • Tesla (TSLA)



    Bought the December $240 calls this morning on the strong earnings bounce off of the 200 day moving average where the stock has been consolidating for nearly a month now.  You can see the potential downtrending resistance that the stock is now hitting on its daily chart, and volume has been dropping off steadily intraday.  Nevertheless, the stock is holding its pop with confidence, so if it closes at or above the current level, and the market is strong enough to carry this up to its 50 day moving average, it seems like this earnings bounce could set the stage for a resumption of the longer term uptrend.  On the weekly chart (which I do not have pictured in my attachment), you will see that we are near the lower portion of the uptrending channel and with the reaction we are seeing to earnings, I would not expect the stock to fall below its 200 day moving average unless the market in aggregate really takes a crap.



  • SolarCity (SCTY)



    As those of you who have followed this thread know, I have been watching this stock for a while, was previously involved on the run up but got stopped out over the slaughter in September/October (and admittedly gave back too many of the gains I had made).  Today I bought January 2017 $45 calls.  The company reported earnings today and while the market isn't thrilled with them, the stock is not imploding either.  On the weekly chart, the stock has been trading in a very wide range with $45-$50 as support for the past year.  The chart is directionless to slightly discouraging at the moment, certainly not a thing of beauty, but these calls buy over 800 days of time value for ~$12.  The October 15th low pierced the lower Bollinger Band just under $46, and the stock appears to be showing signs of stabilization today just above $50 after digesting the earnings report. This is a higher relative and absolute low, and while 800 days is a lot of time, I don't need to hold the calls to expiration.  $12 of time value for a stock with a high growth rate that has fallen from $80 to $50 in 3 months and appears to be stabilizing is enticing purely based on the chart.  It also allows me a realtively low risk entry, as a break below $45 will have me out of the position.



  • Biogen Idec (BIIB)



    This biotechnology company has been a leader in its sector.  It has been consolidating near its 200 day moving average, and the stock experienced a huge flush on its 10/22 earnings report, where it traded down as low as $290.85 and bounced to close at $309.07 on huge volume.  It has held this bounce and churned around ~$315-$325 for the past few weeks.  I expect it to break break out to the upside and have entered April $300 calls.



  • TripAdvisor (TRIP)



    This one is another one that I got stopped out of during the carnage of October, and I'm very glad that I did, as the stock got absolutely crushed on earnings.  Nevertheless, it is stabilizing today, so I have re-entered the stock by taking a small position in the January 2016 $70 calls.  The position will be closed if the stock falls below its earnings low of $71.


In other news, I am still hanging onto my XOP Jan $55/$65 bull call spread, which hasn't really done anything, as well as multiple expirations and strikes on AAPL calls, which are doing awesome, ALXN, MDVN, a very small position in FB Jan 2016 $75 calls, and lots of cash with tight stops!  Wild market here, try not to get sucked into the frenzy.  Trade with discipline, take the best entries (or none at all), adhere to your stops and don't let your ego get in the way!


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #20804631 - 11/07/14 06:11 AM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Have you been watching Oscar Carboni and LiveWithOscar?  His analysis, as usual, is usually spot on.  You owe it to yourself to at least watch his videos on youtube folks.  Also following stocks, and TSLA is one of those.

Stops are in, emotions are out.

He literally called this recent bottom to a V.  Ha ha.  And still has 2130-2150 year end target called early this year.  That target should be met as the typical year end rally will be in place.

The only possible negative is perhaps a stronger dollar, but that means a really stronger dollar and that means 90+ on the DXY.  Then if the fear factor of lower earnings takes effect, we could see another dip.


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Anxiety is what you make it.

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