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 Hotnuts
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 Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely.  [Re: unknown1123]
#16051926 - 04/06/12 11:14 AM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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That 1424 pop, "might" have been it. The S&P, is putting in lower highs/lows now.
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geokills
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 Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: Hotnuts]
#16052115 - 04/06/12 12:18 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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I have been selling out of the money puts on the VXX that expire in June and September for the past couple of weeks in anticipation of a draw down in US equities, but I'll tell ya with great humility, I'm not making any money on this strategy yet, and indeed I even sacrificed part of the position this week by covering a third of it (the higher strike puts) for a loss, as I know better than to let my losses grow too large. While the strategy appears sound, volatility and the VXX in particular is a funny instrument that I am learning not to trust. There are too many other ways to hedge oneself in the market, that seem to have changed the way the VIX moves with respect to the prevailing market price action. I will keep at least a portion of this position on through expiration just to see what happens, but frankly, I haven't been very comfortable with it. I believe the prevalence of big players using calendar spreads by buying long dated calls and continually selling short dated calls against the VXX has aided in its persistent decline. In fact, that's probably a better strategy than my naked short puts. Going to have to think on this one a little more.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥  ╥π╬...
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 qman
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: geokills]
#16052418 - 04/06/12 01:45 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said:
I have been selling out of the money puts on the VXX that expire in June and September for the past couple of weeks in anticipation of a draw down in US equities, but I'll tell ya with great humility, I'm not making any money on this strategy yet, and indeed I even sacrificed part of the position this week by covering a third of it (the higher strike puts) for a loss, as I know better than to let my losses grow too large. While the strategy appears sound, volatility and the VXX in particular is a funny instrument that I am learning not to trust. There are too many other ways to hedge oneself in the market, that seem to have changed the way the VIX moves with respect to the prevailing market price action. I will keep at least a portion of this position on through expiration just to see what happens, but frankly, I haven't been very comfortable with it. I believe the prevalence of big players using calendar spreads by buying long dated calls and continually selling short dated calls against the VXX has aided in its persistent decline. In fact, that's probably a better strategy than my naked short puts. Going to have to think on this one a little more.
I thought volatility picked up in the last week or so, and the VIX moved higher?
Why didn't you profit from your trade?
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geokills
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Selling puts and learning that VXX != VIX [Re: qman]
#16052581 - 04/06/12 02:33 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Volatility has picked up, but not by a large margin and I did not have the luxury of shorting my puts near
the very bottom, which is why I moved down in strike from $20 to $16 and finally to $15's. Further, the
VIX is not a tradable instrument, so in employing my strategy, I instead used the VXX. You can see the
disconnect in this 3 month chart of the VIX index vs the tradable VXX:
My higher strike puts (specifically the June $20's) that I sold a couple of weeks ago are now in the money
and thus losing me money. They are the ones I closed this week for a 50% loss, though at one point I was
down more than 100% on those specific contracts. My $15 and $16 June and Sept puts are presently out of
the money, and there is enough time on the contracts that the VXX should pop between now and then,
but the performance has been unsatisfactory and if you look at the longer term weekly or monthly charts of
the VXX, the prevailing trend is not what I would call encouraging for the position I am in.
Still, this is a relatively small part of my portfolio, but it is having a psychological and emotional affect on
my trading ability, as I find myself focusing on it to the detriment of focusing on (and milking) the trades
I have that are actually working right here, right now. It's a flaw in my human construct, but one that I
would be remiss to dismiss. The market has ways of humbling even the strongest of mind and will!
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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qman
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Re: Selling puts and learning that VXX != VIX [Re: geokills]
#16052876 - 04/06/12 03:51 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Yes, I have heard that VXX is not tracking the VIX, what else is new with these ETN's. I was in UNG many years ago, another piece of junk.
I wouldn't be too hard on yourself, seems like you were on target with your thesis, but a little off with timing and investment instrument.
I also think volatility will increase in the coming weeks and months.
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 Shill
♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋♋
Registered: 11/23/11
Posts: 3,205
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Re: Selling puts and learning that VXX != VIX [Re: qman]
#16053270 - 04/06/12 05:30 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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As do I
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The countdown to the break up of the euro has officially begun.
A great financial crisis is going to erupt in Europe, and it is going to shake the world to the core.
If you were frightened by what happened back in 2008, then you are going to be absolutely horrified by what is coming next.
"You throw the sand against the wind
And the wind blows it back again."
- William Blake
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Hotnuts
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Registered: 02/26/05
Posts: 3,434
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: geokills]
#16054974 - 04/07/12 01:12 AM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said:
I have been selling out of the money puts on the VXX that expire in June and September for the past couple of weeks in anticipation of a draw down in US equities, but I'll tell ya with great humility, I'm not making any money on this strategy yet, and indeed I even sacrificed part of the position this week by covering a third of it (the higher strike puts) for a loss, as I know better than to let my losses grow too large. While the strategy appears sound, volatility and the VXX in particular is a funny instrument that I am learning not to trust. There are too many other ways to hedge oneself in the market, that seem to have changed the way the VIX moves with respect to the prevailing market price action. I will keep at least a portion of this position on through expiration just to see what happens, but frankly, I haven't been very comfortable with it. I believe the prevalence of big players using calendar spreads by buying long dated calls and continually selling short dated calls against the VXX has aided in its persistent decline. In fact, that's probably a better strategy than my naked short puts. Going to have to think on this one a little more.
By the way, I meant ES_F was putting in lower highs/lows, not S&P.
I had 3 friends get caught up in that TVIX massacre. They lost a ton of money. If I had access to it, I prolly would've been long, myself! Trampled.
Edited by Hotnuts (04/07/12 10:39 PM)
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Stonehenge
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: Hotnuts]
#16058370 - 04/07/12 08:57 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Oil is lower than it was a week ago and what have gas prices done? They have gone up of course. This is an outrage. Obumbles should do something about that if he wants a chance to mishandle another term.
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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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qman
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: Stonehenge]
#16059177 - 04/08/12 12:16 AM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Stonehenge said:
Oil is lower than it was a week ago and what have gas prices done? They have gone up of course. This is an outrage. Obumbles should do something about that if he wants a chance to mishandle another term.
The US now exports refined oil products such as gasoline, so there is competition for the gasoline that is refined, thus higher gasoline prices relative to the price of oil.
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LunarEclipse
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Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 10,716
Loc: The Hand
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: qman]
#16060195 - 04/08/12 10:16 AM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
qman said:
Quote:
Stonehenge said:
Oil is lower than it was a week ago and what have gas prices done? They have gone up of course. This is an outrage. Obumbles should do something about that if he wants a chance to mishandle another term.
The US now exports refined oil products such as gasoline, so there is competition for the gasoline that is refined, thus higher gasoline prices relative to the price of oil.
We have more natural gas the cleanest burning fuel to power LNG rigs than believable at unbelievably low prices. The push to electric cars from burning natural gas at power plants makes NO sense. Electric cars suck balls. LNG is available and all they have to do is start selling it at LNG stations subsidized by the gov if need be for cars with LNG capability subsidized by the gov if need be.
Of course this will never happen, instead we export gasoline then pay more at home for gasoline.
As to the OP, my read is similar, a push to 1440 on S&P, AAPL has it's last gasp at ??700?? and then it's CYA.
Edited by LunarEclipse (04/08/12 10:19 AM)
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Stonehenge
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: LunarEclipse]
#16060616 - 04/08/12 01:21 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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They have exported gasoline for years, that is no explanation for the recent price hikes. If the world price for gas is up, why is oil down? LNG is a great alternative to gas and much cheaper. I think it costs about $2 per gallon which is way cheaper than gas. Next car i get i will look into one that uses lng or can be retrofitted to use both. Obumble has blocked the pipeline from canada to usa since he is in the pocket of big money interests. I realize it matters not which of the 2 clowns get elected since both take orders from who pays them the most.
The recovery seems to be stalling and higher fuel prices will make it worse. Unemployment which had dropped a little is headed back up. The figures are jiggered by not counting those who have given up looking for work and by counting as employed those working only a few hours a week who want full time.
I would not be surprised to see either a gradual decline or a series of sharp drop offs in the market.
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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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Hotnuts
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: Stonehenge]
#16072160 - 04/10/12 09:46 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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This is just a correction, in my view. We need higher energy prices for recession, which obviously they aren't high enough. 1456 spx, is what i'm looking at and then we'll see.
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Hotnuts
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: Hotnuts]
#16080907 - 04/12/12 05:30 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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"Retard Rally", underway. 
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qman
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: Hotnuts]
#16080941 - 04/12/12 05:38 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Hotnuts said:
"Retard Rally", underway.
More talk of QE 3 coming, a stock market trades on liquidity, and more is coming. Fundamentals, who needs them when we are floating around trillions of dollars, euros, yen and pounds. Just until the inflation really hits.
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Hotnuts
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: qman]
#16081004 - 04/12/12 05:52 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Asia and Australia, have had some solid economic data points coming out, recently. So, now there's hopes China is starting to take off again. There was a rumor going around that their GDP # is above 9%, tonight. That really got shit going, after Janet Yellen's dovish self got the markets amped on more q/e talk. It doesn't matter how good Asia and Australia, or the US for that matter, performs, economically. The imbalances in commodity prices/current growth, are way too high. More growth= higher commodity prices. Unsustainable. '08 redo. Easiest economics call, ever.
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qman
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: Hotnuts]
#16081209 - 04/12/12 06:44 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Hotnuts said:
Asia and Australia, have had some solid economic data points coming out, recently. So, now there's hopes China is starting to take off again. There was a rumor going around that their GDP # is above 9%, tonight. That really got shit going, after Janet Yellen's dovish self got the markets amped on more q/e talk. It doesn't matter how good Asia and Australia, or the US for that matter, performs, economically. The imbalances in commodity prices/current growth, are way too high. More growth= higher commodity prices. Unsustainable. '08 redo. Easiest economics call, ever.
So you are saying it was the high commodity prices that caused the 08 meltdown?
I think it did not help, but I think the main reason was the over leveraged banks that became insolvent when real estate prices start to tumble. Then the insurance on the debt was also failing (AIG).
I think we may just have to get used to oil at $100 and higher, regardless of growth, simple supply and demand.
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Stonehenge
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: qman]
#16081412 - 04/12/12 07:31 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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I just read that many of the speculators driving up the price of oil were oil producers themselves. They were basically buying oil futures to be delivered to themselves and just coincidentally jacking up prices along the way. Obumble sees no evil, hears no evil etc. He is getting paid off too. You wont see either major party making a big deal out of it and when the third parties do, the media ignores it. Everyone is in on the payoff except the 99%
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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)
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Hotnuts
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: qman]
#16081613 - 04/12/12 08:17 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
qman said:
Quote:
Hotnuts said:
Asia and Australia, have had some solid economic data points coming out, recently. So, now there's hopes China is starting to take off again. There was a rumor going around that their GDP # is above 9%, tonight. That really got shit going, after Janet Yellen's dovish self got the markets amped on more q/e talk. It doesn't matter how good Asia and Australia, or the US for that matter, performs, economically. The imbalances in commodity prices/current growth, are way too high. More growth= higher commodity prices. Unsustainable. '08 redo. Easiest economics call, ever.
So you are saying it was the high commodity prices that caused the 08 meltdown?
Correct. That was the catalyst, to the recession. That's rather, obvious.
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qman
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: Hotnuts]
#16081839 - 04/12/12 09:19 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Hotnuts said:
Quote:
qman said:
Quote:
Hotnuts said:
Asia and Australia, have had some solid economic data points coming out, recently. So, now there's hopes China is starting to take off again. There was a rumor going around that their GDP # is above 9%, tonight. That really got shit going, after Janet Yellen's dovish self got the markets amped on more q/e talk. It doesn't matter how good Asia and Australia, or the US for that matter, performs, economically. The imbalances in commodity prices/current growth, are way too high. More growth= higher commodity prices. Unsustainable. '08 redo. Easiest economics call, ever.
So you are saying it was the high commodity prices that caused the 08 meltdown?
Correct. That was the catalyst, to the recession. That's rather, obvious.
So insolvent banks in the US and Europe had nothing to do with the FINANCIAL crisis of 2008? When the banking system hits the wall like it did in 2008, the only thing that compares is the 1930's. The financial system collapsed, and was temporally bailed out with printed money, still nothing has been solved.
We have gone through high commodity prices in the 70's, it did not cause a financial meltdown like 2008. Last year we had the highest average gasoline prices ever, where was the collapse?
The only thing that is obvious is that you don't have a clear understanding of what happened in 2008. There is a difference between a economic recession, and a financial meltdown. High commodity prices can cause a recession, they don't cause a banking crisis.
Edited by qman (04/12/12 09:23 PM)
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Hotnuts
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Re: U.S. equities, may be approaching, top. Recessions, likely. [Re: qman]
#16094751 - 04/15/12 09:27 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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I disagree. Of course, sub-prime lending was an obvious problem. But, the shock from high oil and gas prices, started the domino effect, into recession. If gasoline and oil prices were sub $2/$60, I doubt we would've ever went into a recession, in '08. And obviously wouldn't have had a financial crisis.
"Last year we had the highest average gasoline prices ever, where was the collapse?"
You're missing my point. This winter, we had the highest gas prices ever, for that season. Can you imagine what would happen to gas and oil prices, coming out of a slack season, going into the highest consumption season? If familiar with technical analysis, looked a front month gasoline chart? It's consolidating it's gains from the winter, with a bullish bias. Correcting it's winter gains, with a bullish bias. That's a recipe for disaster. We're are officially between a rock and a hard place. We can crash now, or crash in the summer, with less money in our pockets, because of high oil and gas expenditures. At the current rate of monetary policy from the Fed and cheap money having nowhere to go but to the markets + the current idiocy of Capitol Hill, a crash is sure as ever, imho. This is what happens when the same folks that got us into the mess, are trying to get us out of it, with the exact same medicine, that got us into the mess, in the first place. Full blown, idiots.
Edited by Hotnuts (04/16/12 01:55 AM)
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