|
 
Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! Please  login or  register to post messages and view our members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, encrypted messages, file attachments, board customizations, and much more!
|
 wiggles
One Winged Angel
 
Registered: 11/09/05
Posts: 2,387
Last seen: 8 days, 7 hours
|
 Re: Fidelity Financial FNF [Re: geokills]
#8145446 - 03/14/08 10:34 AM (5 months, 20 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
geokills said:
> Fidelity Financial (FNF). It did have a great PE ratio (.57), and some of the best dividends out there
Well you're right about the dividend, currently yielding over 7%. However, the PE multiple is certainly not 0.57... it's around 28, which is two to three times the average PE of competitors in the Property & Casualty Insurance industry. You might have gotten confused with its price to sales ratio, which is around 0.62.
Since coming public in 2005, this company has been boasting declining revenues, declining operating income, and declining net income. FNF has missed its earnings estimates over 7 of the last 9 quarters. Their first day of trading saw the stock up at $26, which has the stock down well over 30% from its debut. While it is up nicely year to date, and earnings estimates show higher growth for the coming year... keeping in mind their robust history of failing to meet estimates, I'm not encouraged.
The stock is up nicely today... I would consider taking profits!
I've attached a research report on the company to this post.. I didn't take the time to go through it myself, but thought you may be interested since you are a shareholder.
Thanks bro, I appreciate the report. The PE ratio was from sharebuilder, and while I like their DCA services their research can be a little behind the ball 
--------------------
 
You can turn your back on a person, but never turn your back on a drug, especially when its waving a razor sharp hunting knife in your eye.
Hunter S. Thompson
|
Derk
Friend
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 22 days, 1 hour
|
Re: Fidelity Financial FNF [Re: wiggles]
#8155837 - 03/17/08 12:11 AM (5 months, 17 days ago) |
|
|
What are some bear market funds? I heard a person from Cornerstone refer to this. Something about investors need to have exposure to investments that can benefit from higher inflation. These would include gold and commodities. TIPs could also benefit from higher inflation. What are TIPS and the sort? Like a mutual fund?
|
phi1618
old hand
Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 3,667
Last seen: 56 minutes, 38 seconds
|
Re: Fidelity Financial FNF [Re: Derk]
#8156435 - 03/17/08 08:45 AM (5 months, 17 days ago) |
|
|
TIPS are inflation indexed treasury bonds - currently, they offer negative yields - that is, buy a $1000 bond today, get $990 + inflation back next year. It's safe, but there's gotta be a better place to put your money.
Bear market funds are market and sector ultrashorts - like SDS is "UltraShort S&P 500 proshares" - this means, it should move in the opposite direction as the S&P 500, and by double the amount. There are other ultrashort proshares funds - including some for sectors, like housing or financial. Search "Proshares".
Commodities are rising super-fast right now. If you want to invest in commodity funds or ETFs, you can - like GLD is an ETF that holds a bunch of physical gold (I think) - other people probably know more.
|
Derk
Friend
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 22 days, 1 hour
|
Re: Fidelity Financial FNF [Re: phi1618]
#8156871 - 03/17/08 11:12 AM (5 months, 17 days ago) |
|
|
Well since GLD seems to be going up daily, can I just pour a lump sum of money in some GLD and cash in my gains after 3 days or so? I doubt the prices of GLD will fall anytime soon because the value of the dollar is still going down.
Edited by Derk (03/17/08 11:13 AM)
|
geokills
······· º¿°·······
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 13,155
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 29 minutes
|
 Stock Update for March 17, 2008 - DE, MO, HCBK, NLY [Re: Derk]
#8157521 - 03/17/08 02:07 PM (5 months, 17 days ago) |
|
|
You're playing with fire man - don't go throw all of your eggs in one basket. You're hoping that gold will continue to go up as the dollar continues to go down. While the trend is in your favor, a correction can occur at anytime. Don't be reckless, be cool and calculated, patient and disciplined! If you're dead set on gold, buy a piece right now, but don't put down a full position all at once. You should be buying on weakness.
- Deere & Co (DE) - Currently Trading at $81.90
As I said I would be buying back Deere shares should they fall back to $80, that's just what I did. Added to my position on the morning's weakness at $80 / share. My thesis remains the same as discussed in previous updates.
- Altria (MO) - Currently Trading at $70
Added to my position at $70 / share. As previously noted, this company's stable earnings, strong dividend yield in conjunction with its breakup plans for its Philip Morris International and Domestic units, with an upcomming dividend boost, makes this ripe for upside.
- Hudson City (HCBK) - Currently Trading at $17.15
Up almost 5% on the day, this is probably the only stable financial stock out there. It is a very prudent lender, with nearly zero defaults by borrowers. It also sports a secure dividend greater than 2% annually. I am not taking any action at this time, but am pleased to see how well this stock has performed year to date, outperforming practically all of its peers in the financial sector, as well as many other sectors. Tomorrow's Fed rate cut should help support further gains here.
- Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently Trading at $14.15
Just to beat myself up a bit... after learning of the Bear Sterns takeover and seeing the Asian markets tumbling on Sunday night, I got up at 6:15am pacific time to watch the US market open, planning to take advantage of weakness. With a watchful eye on my small Annaly Capital position, I aimed to catch some at around $13 / share. However, I cancelled that order almost immediately and tried to chase the stock down to its low as I saw it falling on very heavy volume. Hitting $12 within the first minute of trading, I became hesitant and within the next 30 seconds, after hitting a low of $11.50, I watched Annaly rocket back up to above $13 (that's a 13% swing in a matter of minutes, and a 23% swing on the day). Disgruntled and disappointed, I did not take any action - even though I could have made a purchase at my original $13 buy point! Instead, I allowed my hesitation and greed to get in the way of yet another fantastic trading opportunity. This is a prime example of how fast the market can move, and that it is better to set your price ahead of time and accept it, rather than changing your mind and chasing a stock once you're in the heat of battle!
My Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/17/2008:- Cash - 27%
- Altria (MO) - 12.5%
- Deere (DE) - 7.96%
- McDonalds (MCD) - 7.27%
- Hudson City (HCBK) - 7.08%
- Proctor & Gamble (PG) - 6.96%
- Jones Apparel (JNY) - 6.28%
- Transocean (RIG) - 5.92%
- Mosaic (MOS) - 5.37%
- Apple (AAPL) - 4.16%
- AT&T (T) - 3.72%
- British Petroleum (BP) - 3.23%
- Annaly (NLY) - 2.61%
--------------------
--------------------
┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥  ╥π╬...
|
geokills
······· º¿°·······
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 13,155
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 29 minutes
|
 Stock Update for March 18, 2008 - NLY [Re: geokills]
#8161304 - 03/18/08 09:27 AM (5 months, 16 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
geokills said:
- Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently Trading at $14.15
Just to beat myself up a bit... after learning of the Bear Sterns takeover and seeing the Asian markets tumbling on Sunday night, I got up at 6:15am pacific time to watch the US market open, planning to take advantage of weakness. With a watchful eye on my small Annaly Capital position, I aimed to catch some at around $13 / share. However, I cancelled that order almost immediately and tried to chase the stock down to its low as I saw it falling on very heavy volume. Hitting $12 within the first minute of trading, I became hesitant and within the next 30 seconds, after hitting a low of $11.50, I watched Annaly rocket back up to above $13 (that's a 13% swing in a matter of minutes, and a 23% swing on the day). Disgruntled and disappointed, I did not take any action - even though I could have made a purchase at my original $13 buy point! Instead, I allowed my hesitation and greed to get in the way of yet another fantastic trading opportunity. This is a prime example of how fast the market can move, and that it is better to set your price ahead of time and accept it, rather than changing your mind and chasing a stock once you're in the heat of battle!
You know what? Annaly is just too hard for me to game, it's causing me to lose too much sleep, and I'm sick of it. That's why I am closing my position today, on the heels of a 16% overnight gain (thanks to expectations of a heavy rate cut later this afternoon). Rather than wait for that rate cut to materialize and potentially disappoint, I'm going to give back these shares right now, at $16.45. If I can catch it again down around $12 - $13, I may step back in for a quick trade... but this one is so damn volatile and has caused me too much strife. Though I honestly believe there is still good value in this stock, the volatility is just way too stressful, and I'll give up some potential gain in order to rest easier!
--------------------
--------------------
┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
geokills
······· º¿°·······
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 13,155
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 29 minutes
|
Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: geokills]
#8162627 - 03/18/08 03:11 PM (5 months, 16 days ago) |
|
|
Happy 420 point to the upside DJIA!
This calls for a celebratory  
Fed cuts its core and discount rates 0.75% a piece, making note of heightened inflation concerns.
The inflation comment seemed to tweak the market for an hour, but it came roaring back to the close.
Very pleased with my positions right now. While I may take some profits in any names that continue to outperform the broader market averages in coming days, I am content to let most things ride given the fact that the market has been quite oversold heading into this rally, and that the environment looks more friendly thanks largely to the actions taken by the Fed (i.e. the Bear Sterns bailout, the $200 billion 28 day T-note for Mortgage-backed security exchange, and today's interest rate cuts).
My healthy cash position also affords me the opportunity to potentially initiate a position in an infrastructure play such as Jacobs Engineering (JEC) if it can find it's way back to $70 a share, or perhaps Foster Wheeler (FWLT) if it leans back down closer to $50, both of which source many of their contracts in the global market. One may also want to keep an eye on the VISA (V) IPO coming tonight. Visa has no credit related risk, their earnings come from transaction fees - and with more and more people using credit over cash every day, Visa, like MasterCard, will stand to benefit.
Everything was in the green today - Some highlights - Hudson City Bank (HCBK) up another 5%. Mosaic (MOS) up 6.7%. Transocean (RIG) up 5.2%. Apple (AAPL) up 4.8%. Annaly (NLY) up 17.4%.
This action is very encouraging. I hate to say it, but the Bear Sterns failure was an important part of what is going to move us past the current credit crisis. Now that we know that the government is willing to step in to bail out any large bank in trouble, in addition to the sentiment that many banks have already announced the bulk of their write downs, not to mention the lower interest rate environment, it seems we may finally be nearing a bottom in the stock market. Nevertheless, we haven't experienced the classic "capitulation", or panic selling / crash that is typically indicative of a market bottom. Therefore, it is important to keep a conservative bias.
Given all the pain and volatility over the past few months, I am content having a sizeable cash position available for any weakness. In a bull market, my cash position would be closer to 8%. Indeed, it would probably pay off in the short-term to put some more of my cash to work right now, but I don't mind missing a few extra dollars of upside for the added security that my cash position provides me.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/18/2008- Cash - 29.3%
- Altria (MO) - 12.4%
- Deere (DE) - 7.9%
- Hudson City Bank (HCBK) - 7.2%
- McDonalds (MCD) - 7.2%
- Proctor & Gamble (PG) - 6.9%
- Jones Apparel (JNY) - 6.3%
- Transocean (RIG) -6.0%
- Mosaic (MOS) - 5.5%
- Apple (AAPL) - 4.2%
- AT&T (T) - 3.7%
- British Petroleum (BP) - 3.2%
--------------------
--------------------
┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (03/18/08 07:59 PM)
|
Derk
Friend
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 22 days, 1 hour
|
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: geokills]
#8163398 - 03/18/08 06:08 PM (5 months, 16 days ago) |
|
|
Holy shit Apple gained almost 15 dollars in 2 days time! Gonna sell my shares tomorrow if it opens well. (I play virtual market on Updown =/, it's a lot of fun though!)
So far I'm up 1.05% total gains with 30k in 2 days. Too bad it's not real lol.
Gold is down right now, I'm very tempted to buy some real shares and hope it goes back up. I probably definately will if it hits a low of $93 or so.
|
geokills
······· º¿°·······
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 13,155
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 29 minutes
|
Stock Update for March 19, 2008 - PBR, AUY [Re: geokills]
#8166725 - 03/19/08 01:47 PM (5 months, 15 days ago) |
|
|
- Petrobras (PBR) - Currently Trading at $98.15
I introduced this name a few weeks ago in this thread and have been patiently waiting for a decent entry level. Petrobras is a Brazilian oil outfit that late last year found the largest oil reserve on the planet to date, just off the coast of Brazil. Commodities (such as gold, oil, minerals, metals) have been weak today, down some ~5% give or take. With PBR over 20% off of its recent highs, I am using this weakness to initiate a position just below $100 a share. In keeping with my investment discipline, I plan to build a position incrementally as commodities may continue to cool off in the near-term as the dollar has started to see a little strength over the past couple of days, and there is a general de-leveraging process going on in the commodity market. This de-leveraging is a result of recent liquidity problems that are likely going to cause lenders to require more collateral for future margin purchases (purchases made with loaned money). Therefore, a lot of hedge funds and large investors who buy on margin, are probably selling off their gains in commodities in order to raise capital/collateral for future purchases. Furthermore, as I also hold positions in Transocean (RIG) and British Petroleum (BP), I am taking a "basket" approach to my oil sector exposure - instead of holding one large position in a single oil comapny, I am going to hold three small-to-moderately sized positions in a few different companies. I believe oil will sustain its longterm growth trend, and with the Brazilian economy strong in addition to PBR's recent HUGE oil find, I plan to hold Petrobras as a long-term investment.
- Yamana Gold (AUY) - Currently Trading at $16.65
This gold mining company also offers international exposure concentrated in Latin America. It does not do much hedging of its contracts, and therefore its profits will move largely in step with the spot price for gold. With gold falling from its highs above $1000 an ounce, down to the mid $900 level, this gold stock also finds itself some 15% off of its recent highs. It is here that I am stepping in to initiate a small position. As with Petrobras, this stock is highly levered to the commodity markets, and those are cooling off rapidly today. With this in mind, I intend to make purchases incrementally, in order to take advantage of any continued weakness in the commodity space.
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) and Jacobs Engineering (JEC) are looking really ripe for the picking at these levels, $53 and $71 respectively. However, my portfolio is getting a little bloated and I think I've done enough buying for one day. I don't want to get too agressive as this is an options expiration week, which typically results in higher than average volatility. Not to mention that the aggregate health of the market still isn't great - and though the sun has shined on equities this week, clouds could cover the space at any moment. With thirteen active positions in my discretionary portfolio, it may not be wise to add more as it will make it increasingly difficult to keep up to date on all of them as any news breaks.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/19/2008:- Cash - 22%
- Altria (MO) - 12.5%
- Deere (DE) - 7.8%
- Hudson City (HCBK) - 7.3%
- McDonalds (MCD) - 7.2%
- Proctor & Gamble (PG) - 7.0%
- Jones Apparel (JNY) - 6.4%
- Transocean (RIG) - 5.9%
- Mosaic (MOS) - 5.1%
- British Petroleum (BP) - 4.9%
- Apple (AAPL) - 4.2%
- AT&T (T) - 3.7%
- Petrobras (PBR) - 3.3%
- Yamana Gold (AUY) - 2.8%
--------------------
--------------------
┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Derk
Friend
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 22 days, 1 hour
|
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: Derk]
#8166745 - 03/19/08 01:50 PM (5 months, 15 days ago) |
|
|
Very nice calls on Visa and JEC, Geo. I love you even more.
GLD is down even more today to almost $93. Do you think I should invest for real in this shit or you think it is not going to go back up?
|
geokills
······· º¿°·······
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 13,155
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 29 minutes
|
 Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: Derk]
#8167466 - 03/19/08 03:58 PM (5 months, 15 days ago) |
|
|
Well obviously I'm not too worried about gold, because I just initiated a position in Yamana Gold (AUY) today. Gold will probably be under pressure for a little while though, as it stumbles around the psychological $1000 mark. People in the gold industry whom I've listened to speak (the CEO's of both Yamana and Agnico-Eagle Mines), believe gold will continue to rise, with estimates stated between $1600 - $2000 an ounce. Of course there's really no telling, and if the dollar continues to rise in a strong way, it'll be very hard for gold to continue its push higher. I am investing in AUY not necessarily for short-term gains, but as a hedge against the falling dollar. I consider it inflation insurance for the portfolio, and so long as the people in the industry continue to see higher prices and the dollar continues to be under pressure, I'm willing to stick it out.
--------------------
--------------------
┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
phi1618
old hand
Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 3,667
Last seen: 56 minutes, 38 seconds
|
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: geokills]
#8167710 - 03/19/08 04:30 PM (5 months, 15 days ago) |
|
|
Crazy market - BTW, there is continued chaos in the credit markets that makes me think we haven't seen the worst in the stock market - this schizophrenic behavior could continue for some time, so be careful.
|
Derk
Friend
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 22 days, 1 hour
|
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: phi1618]
#8167763 - 03/19/08 04:38 PM (5 months, 15 days ago) |
|
|
There are different kinds of gold to invest in? o.0 how you know which ones to invest in? Man I'm so stupid. And I thought the dollar was still falling.
What banks do you suggest investing in? The Fed seems pretty gung-ho in not letting them fall, so I'm not very afraid of losing money if I was to invest in already extremely low prices.
EDIT: Why have Yamana and Agnico-Eagle Mines fallen so heavily in the past few days? What happened??? o.0
Edited by Derk (03/19/08 04:40 PM)
|
geokills
······· º¿°·······
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 13,155
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 29 minutes
|
 Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: Derk]
#8167952 - 03/19/08 05:10 PM (5 months, 15 days ago) |
|
|
You need to educate yourself more before you start putting money in the market my friend. If you read my post today about my purchases in PBR and AUY, you will see that I explain de-leveraging is one of the primary reasons why commodity stocks are getting hit hard right now.
Quote:
... commodities may continue to cool off in the near-term as the dollar has started to see a little strength over the past couple of days, and there is a general de-leveraging process going on in the commodity market. This de-leveraging is a result of recent liquidity problems that are likely going to cause lenders to require more collateral for future margin purchases (purchases made with loaned money). Therefore, a lot of hedge funds and large investors who buy on margin, are probably selling off their gains in commodities in order to raise capital/collateral for future purchases.
The dollar is still in a long-term down trend. It has been strong only a couple of days this week, but that is just greater proof of how quickly the market sentiment can change, and why you need to learn more about how different sectors of the economy are tied together, and in general how the market tends to react emotionally over the near-term. It is probably not likely that the dollar will see continued strength in the coming months, but it is something that must be considered, particularly if you are intending to invest in dollar-priced commodities such as oil and gold.
In so far as banks, again, read my previous updates and look at my portfolio. I'm playing with an open hand here, quite literally putting my money where my mouth is. Right now, my financial sector exposure comes from Hudson City Bank (HCBK), one of the few financial stocks that is at its 52-week high. Other banks I would consider looking into include JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC)... but make no mistake, I'm not itching to gain anymore financial sector exposure right now, because that sector is at the heart of the market's turmoil and quite frankly, dangerous.
--------------------
--------------------
┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Derk
Friend
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 272
Last seen: 22 days, 1 hour
|
Re: Happy 420! - Dow Jones Industrial Average up 420 points! [Re: geokills]
#8168120 - 03/19/08 05:36 PM (5 months, 15 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
geokills said:
You need to educate yourself more before you start putting money in the market my friend. If you read my post today about my purchases in PBR and AUY, you will see that I explain de-leveraging is one of the primary reasons why commodity stocks are getting hit hard right now.
Cramer's books are coming in the mail as we speak. I'm trying my best to understand certain things. Just some terms and trends I can't quite grasp yet. Did I say some? I meant a few. I mean many.
|
geokills
······· º¿°·······
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 13,155
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 29 minutes
|
 Portfolio Review - Sector Exposure & Diversification [Re: phi1618]
#8168227 - 03/19/08 05:52 PM (5 months, 15 days ago) |
|
|
I agree with you phi1618, it's a little nerve wracking, but I try to remember that these short-term swings really aren't cause to get my panties in a bunch. The majority of my investments are based on a long-term thesis, and many of my holdings provide dividend yields at or better than the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, so weathering the storm shouldn't be too difficult.
Nevertheless, to the extent that I have been immersing myself in the markets on a daily basis, it surely doesn't feel good on days like today when the market tanks - and it reminds me of the necessity for caution. This is partly why I have kept such a large cash position on hand. And while I am confident in the names I initiated today, I am a little weary of beginning to dip into my protective cash position because like you, I could believe that we have more to fall before things really start to trend positively again.
On that note, I am going to do a little bit of sector analysis on my portfolio, to make sure that I am maintaining diversification, and to see where I might need to lighten up or bulk up in order to protect myself. I am grouping together sectors that tend to move in tandem with each other.
- 22% Cash - $
- 20% Consumer Staples - MO/PG
- 14% Oil - RIG/PBR/BP
- 13% Agriculture - MOS/DE
- 3% Gold - AUY
- 7% Financial - HCBK
- 7% Casual Dining - MCD
- 6% Retail - JNY
- 4% Technology - AAPL
- 4% Telecommunications - T
Analyzing my portfolio in this manner is a bit of an eye opener. Cash looks good. The Consumer Staples are safe, with both stocks paying a good dividend, and consumer staples naturally being relatively stable since they are comprised of products that people will buy regardless of the macro-economy's strength (people who smoke aren't going to stop buying cigarettes, nor will people stop buying personal hygiene products).
The problem begins to make itself apparent when looking at my Oil and Ag exposure. While I believe it is safe to have up to 20% of my portfolio in any one sector, I am getting the feeling that Oil and Ag are on shaky ground right now given the aforementioned de-leveraging and dollar strength that led to a rapid selloff today. In retrospect, I should have taken some profits on my Mosaic (MOS) position when it reached $110 yesterday, and perhaps I shouldn't have been so quick to put more cash to work in Deere (DE) when it hit $80. In truth, it is the Ag stocks that have me the most concerned, as they trade with high PE multiples and on lofty expectations for future growth, and they fail to pay any decent dividends.
While I believe that Agriculture still has a lot of growth potential thanks to the proliferation of bio-based fuels in addition to the rising desire for less-efficient food (i.e. meat) which requires more grain to be grown for feed... I still can't help but wish I weren't so exposed to this sector right now. I have a feeling we could see another 10% leg down on the Ag names in the near-term, but we're at a point where I'm not comfortable buying or selling either of these names... so I'll just have to take a wait and see approach for the time being.
In efforts to re-distribute my exposure to various sectors of the economy over the coming weeks, I will aim to book some profits in Deere if it can climb back up above $85. If Apple falls back towards $120 or Google falls back toward $400, I will probably buy some of those in order to re-build my technology position which I had lightened (with good cause) in the beginning of the year. I will also look to gain infrastructure/engineering exposure through a purchase of Jacobs Engineering or Foster Wheeler, both of which I have been interested in for quite some time. I am also likely to make another purchase in Yamana Gold should the stock reach $15.
On the whole, I don't mind being underweight on retail, finance, telecommunications or technology... as these sectors don't have much going for them right now. The reason I am holding on to these positions is because I believe they will eventually recover and all of them (with the exception of technology) offer strong dividends. I do still see long-term value in Apple and Google, so I would be content to get back into those names once the price is right. I think the most prudent move for me right now is to get my head wrapped around my Agriculture exposure, and perhaps focus on only one name in the sector... because having too much to follow just makes things more difficult, and thus prone to greater losses if I can't keep up to date on the things I own.
--------------------
--------------------
┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
geokills
······· º¿°·······
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 13,155
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 29 minutes
|
Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS [Re: geokills]
#8173056 - 03/20/08 06:39 PM (5 months, 14 days ago) |
|
|
Another wickedly volatile week for the markets, though this time with upside. Unfortunately, it would have paid off to have waited an extra week to put money to work in the commodity space, as my gold, oil, and agricultural commodity stocks really took a beating over the last few days thanks to the dollar strength and hedge fund de-leveraging (explained here). Nevertheless, I do not believe that the bull markets in oil and agriculture are going to be over anytime soon. A correction is inevitable, and in my view presents a valuable buying opportunity.
- Hudson City Bank Corp (HCBK) - Currently Trading at $18.29
This one has been just great for me. Now over 17% above my cost basis, I sold one third of my position today. One of the few financial stocks to show consistent strength throughout the past year, in fact one of the few stocks period, that has been able to hit its 52-week high in this grueling market. Well managed, a conservative lender, this regional bank also offers a welcome 2% dividend. Nevertheless, after scoring a 17% gain in about a month, the prudent move is to book some profits. I am still leaving 2/3 of my position on the table here, as it's still a great bank, but not nearly as attractive as it was when it was trading around my cost basis of $15.59. Financial stocks in general have been outperforming the market this week, and whenever one sector is outperforming, it's a good idea to take the handsome gains while you got 'em... and then use that money to buy back the shares you sold once that sector falls out of favor again.
- Mosaic (MOS) - Currently Trading at $92.01
As noted in my opening statement, the whole commodity space has been getting brutally slashed this week. While I wish I would have sold some of my Mosaic when it was trading closer to $110 on Tuesday, it's too late for that now. Still believing in the long-term outlook for agricultural commodities (i.e. fertilizer), I believe Mosaic will have pricing power on its side and should continue to deliver exceptional results. With this in mind, I have lowered my cost basis by making a purchase today, adding approximately 1/3 to my position at $90 a share.
No trading tomorrow, however should the commodities continue their downtrend next week, I will look to continue adding to my positions. Yamana Gold (AUY), which I initiated this week, is already down close to 5% from my basis (though 20% from its recent high). In keeping with my discipline, I purchased only 1/3 of what I would typically consider a full position, and have plenty of room to add to this name on further weakness. They will report their quarterly earnings on Tuesday, which should be strong. I will look to buy below $15 a share on Monday. Petrobras (PBR), the Brazilian oil outfit is also down some 4% from where I initiated the name this week, and if it reaches below $90, I will surely be a buyer.
A quick note on all this oil and commodity buying, since I noted yesterday how I have been concerned about my increasing exposure to oils and agriculture in particular. This will definitely skew the diversified nature of my portfolio - however, this sector has been taking such a wild beating this week that I believe continued losses of this magnitude to be unsustainable. Oil and Agriculture are not going anywhere, and when a certain sector vastly underperforms the market short term, it often pays to stock up in the short term. Of course, as soon as there is strength, I will re-balance the portfolio by selling off some of the commodity-related shares that I was able to purchase at these bargain levels.
I think that's it for now... I'm glad I get tomorrow off - the swings in this market have been driving me a little batty. I woke up a half hour after the trading day began, to see Foster Wheeler (FWLT) had traded down to $47 right after the open. Kicking myself for not having set my alarm a half-hour earlier, I put in a bid for $50 when the stock was trading at roughly $50.25... unfortunately, strength carried it like a rocket, to close the day at $54.29 (even higher in after hours trading). A shame, another day trading opportunity to bag a quick 10% failed. Ah well, there'll be other days and new opportunities to come. Keep your head up, the market is looking quite a bit healthier now that our government agencies (namely the Fed and Treasury) are finally working together to find solutions to the current housing and credit crisis. Even so, barring my increased short term exposure to commodities, I will be keeping an eye out for secure, high yielding dividend stocks, and looking to maintain a minimum 10 - 15% cash position for any unforeseen weakness.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/20/08:- 23% Cash
- 12.4% Altria (MO)
- 7.7% Deere (DE)
- 7.3% McDonalds (MCD)
- 7.1% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 6.9% Jones Apparel (JNY)
- 6.5% Mosaic (MOS)
- 5.8% Transocean (RIG)
- 4.8% British Petroleum (BP)
- 4.6% Hudson City Bank (HCBK)
- 4.3% Apple (AAPL)
- 3.8% AT&T (T)
- 3.2% Petrobras (PBR)
- 2.7% Yamana Gold (AUY)
--------------------
--------------------
┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
 Cowgold
Bullshit
Registered: 04/04/05
Posts: 10,114
Loc: .
|
Re: Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS, MO [Re: geokills]
#8173893 - 03/20/08 10:10 PM (5 months, 13 days ago) |
|
|
Geokills, I just want to say that I'm really impressed with your trading discipline. I've been learning a lot from your posts and think that your disclosure is a really rare find.
Thanks!
|
geokills
······· º¿°·······
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 13,155
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 29 minutes
|
 Re: Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS, MO [Re: Cowgold]
#8174411 - 03/20/08 11:51 PM (5 months, 13 days ago) |
|
| |
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit 
Reply 
Quote 
