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fireworks_god
Sexy ButtMcDanger



Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 20,453
Loc: red panda village
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: boomer q]
#8086237 - 02/29/08 01:41 PM (9 months, 15 hours ago) |
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Quote:
boomer q said: incidentally, how is your name luvdemshrooms, and you deny global warming? havent you learned anything about how to be one with nature from shrooms? you should take a large dose and go watch a glacier fall into the sea
This is one of the most ridiculuous statements I've heard in a month, as long as I'm handing out awards.
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Meet me in outer space
We could spend the night;
watch the earth come up
I've grown tired of that place;
won't you come with me?
We could start again.
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fireworks_god
Sexy ButtMcDanger



Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 20,453
Loc: red panda village
Last seen: 16 hours, 54 minutes
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Quote:
boomer q said: incidentally, how is your name luvdemshrooms, and you deny global warming? havent you learned anything about how to be one with nature from shrooms? you should take a large dose and go watch a glacier fall into the sea
Ahh, allow me to actually address the most ridiculous statement of the month. I don't understand how it is implied that someone who takes psychadelics is suspossed to believe in "climate change", such as it is being referred to as. I say this as someone who took a nice hit of acid and climbed a hill in the unglaciated area of Wisconsin. I then sat at the top, with my legs dangling over the edge of a limestone bluff, above the tree tops below, and gazed out over the Wisconsin River Valley. The unglaciated area is in Southwestern Wisconsin, and its interesting because all of the land in every direction surrounding the unglaciated area was paved pretty flat by glaciers. This is why it exists in its state of hills and trees and pristine environment. Of course, once the glaciers further up North began to melt, all of that water came through the Wisconsin River, forming the valley.
From this vantage point, so magnificently soaring on acid, I could actually sense the changes that had occured over very long amounts of time. I could actually feel exactly how it all happened, the glacial water easing through and forming the terrain, down to the last detail, because all of that information exists in the present moment, in those details; the big picture completely visible through the pure magic of acid. 
It was definitely one of the greatest experiences I've had. After personally witnessing first-hand the end of the last Ice Age, I think a tripper would feel pretty good sitting there, one with nature, observing a glacier fall into the sea. I've seen its melted remains sweep through the land, at least. 


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Meet me in outer space
We could spend the night;
watch the earth come up
I've grown tired of that place;
won't you come with me?
We could start again.
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Yossarian22
Stranger
Registered: 09/12/07
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Quote:
fireworks_god said: Its pretty conclusive that the warming and cooling of the earth is resultant of the Sun's output of energy more than anything. Humans might be putting a lot of CO2 into the atmosphere; however, there is a point at which you could dump twice as much of it into the atmosphere and it still would not produce any real effect as far as cooling is concerned. Phred covered this in his first couple of posts in this thread. Go read them.
Wow, the sun you say? Good lord, it looks like you've shown all those fancy pants scientists. Who woulda thunk that all those advanced climatological predictions and models should have taken into account solar energy and basic chemistry? My God, it's genius! Thanks for revolutionizing the field of climate study with your cunning and original insight, anonymous Shroomery poster!
PS: Did I mention that it's snowing outside therefore global warming has to be false? I mean, it's not as if scientists are predicting a vast and complex destabilization of weather patterns; clearly, global warming means that the entire Earth is going to uniformly increase in temperature.
Edited by Yossarian22 (02/29/08 02:09 PM)
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fireworks_god
Sexy ButtMcDanger



Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 20,453
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: Yossarian22]
#8086348 - 02/29/08 02:12 PM (9 months, 14 hours ago) |
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So, if it obviously isn't CO2 that is making the difference, then what is it? My point is pretty simple, yes, but that doesn't mean it has been underestimated. My point is that the Sun is responsible for it all and any other factor plays no real role in climate change. Did you have anything of substance to address my point with, instead of this logical fallacy you have presented?
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Meet me in outer space
We could spend the night;
watch the earth come up
I've grown tired of that place;
won't you come with me?
We could start again.
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fireworks_god
Sexy ButtMcDanger



Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 20,453
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: Yossarian22]
#8086363 - 02/29/08 02:14 PM (9 months, 14 hours ago) |
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Yossarian22 said: PS: Did I mention that it's snowing outside therefore global warming has to be false? I mean, it's not as if scientists are predicting a vast and complex destabilization of weather patterns; clearly, global warming means that the entire Earth is going to uniformly increase in temperature.
To what is this in regards to? Something I've said? Who is presenting the perspective that you are being sarcastic towards?
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Meet me in outer space
We could spend the night;
watch the earth come up
I've grown tired of that place;
won't you come with me?
We could start again.
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fireworks_god
Sexy ButtMcDanger



Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 20,453
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: Yossarian22]
#8086429 - 02/29/08 02:33 PM (9 months, 14 hours ago) |
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Yossarian22 said: Wow, the sun you say? Good lord, it looks like you've shown all those fancy pants scientists. Who woulda thunk that all those advanced climatological predictions and models should have taken into account solar energy and basic chemistry?
Can you please substantiate the role in which the sun's output has been figured into their predictions and models, please? I'm most curious to know specifically what role the Sun's output as played. The impression I get from reading this article here suggests it really hasn't played a signfigant role:
Quote:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/sun_output_030320.html
Scientists, industry leaders and environmentalists have argued for years whether humans have contributed to global warming, and to what extent. The average surface temperature around the globe has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1880. Some scientists say the increase could be part of natural climate cycles. Others argue that greenhouse gases produced by automobiles and industry are largely to blame.
Willson said the Sun's possible influence has been largely ignored because it is so difficult to quantify over long periods.
I'm doing my own research into your amusing statement, of course, but, since you're the one making the claim, its your responsibility to back it up. Please do.
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Meet me in outer space
We could spend the night;
watch the earth come up
I've grown tired of that place;
won't you come with me?
We could start again.
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Yossarian22
Stranger
Registered: 09/12/07
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Quote:
fireworks_god said: So, if it obviously isn't CO2 that is making the difference, then what is it?
When did I say it wasn't the CO2? It's also caused by other greenhouse gases, too, but CO2 certainly plays a large part.
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My point is pretty simple, yes, but that doesn't mean it has been underestimated.
What do you mean "underestimated"? The point is that it's pure craziness to think that modern science is unable to take into account such an elementary idea. The sun hypothesis has been studied and debunked.
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My point is that the Sun is responsible for it all and any other factor plays no real role in climate change.
And my point is you're entirely wrong. Of course the sun's important, but there haven't been any changes that could explain the unprecedented rise in global temperatures. Here's one link debunking that hypothesis.
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Did you have anything of substance to address my point with, instead of this logical fallacy you have presented?
I presented no logical fallacy- and don't say "appeal to authority"(it's only a fallacy when it's an appeal to false authority). Science is a self-correcting process; certainly, it makes mistakes and it's not perfect, but every scientific idea that becomes a matter of consensus has been rigorously tested, debated, and exposed to criticism worldwide. There are hundreds of thousands of people who've studied climatology for decades and understand the science more intimately than any of us here could possibly hope to. While studies and technological advances have altered the details of our understanding of climate change, it hasn't altered the core theory; in fact, the library of climatological research has confirmed the existence of global warming many times over. To say "nope, the scientific community is wrong" and to present such scant and superficial evidence is not just arrogant, but stupid. Do you really think none of those scientists asked themselves "maybe we should look at the sun"?
The truth is, there is no controversy over anthropogenic climate change in the scientific community. Amongst talk radio MCs, conspiracy theorists, and energy sector boardrooms, sure, there's a controversy. There has been an orchestrated effort by many whose financial interests argue against environmental regulation to portray it as a controversy, that insipid "let's teach the controversy" the creationists were pushing. The thinking is, if we spread enough half-truths, sophisms, and downright lies, and thus cast doubt as to the existence or severity of global warming amongst the lay but voting populace, we can weaken the public's resolve to address the problem and retard environmentally sound but unprofitable(at least in the immediate short term) regulations. And you've bought it hook, line and sinker. Congratulations, you're spouting Exxon's disinformation. You've been used.
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luvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?

Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 12,346
Loc: Lost In Space
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: boomer q]
#8086744 - 02/29/08 03:49 PM (9 months, 13 hours ago) |
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Quote:
boomer q said: incidentally, how is your name luvdemshrooms, and you deny global warming? havent you learned anything about how to be one with nature from shrooms? you should take a large dose and go watch a glacier fall into the sea
It's moronic statements like that which make you not worth the time.
I enjoy nature. I just don't swallow the stupidity of many.
-------------------- Join The N.R.A.
"Activism is a way for useless people to feel important, even if the consequences of their activism are counterproductive for those they claim to be helping and damaging to the fabric of society as a whole." - Thomas Sowell
"Some of the most vocal critics of the way things are being done are people who have done nothing themselves, and whose only contributions to society are their complaints and moral exhibitionism." - Thomas Sowell
"A liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man, which debt he proposes to pay off with your money." - G. Gordon Liddy
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fireworks_god
Sexy ButtMcDanger



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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: Yossarian22]
#8087233 - 02/29/08 05:55 PM (9 months, 10 hours ago) |
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Yossarian22 said: When did I say it wasn't the CO2? It's also caused by other greenhouse gases, too, but CO2 certainly plays a large part.
I didn't say you did, but CO2 obviously has no real effect beyond a certain point. I'll reference Phred's post which I recently quoted. In researching the claim that, in 1940-1970, the average mean temperature cooled as CO2 levels continued to increase, I found that, in addition to sulphate aerosols, due to volcanic activity, as well as industrial activity to some extent, surprise surprise, there was a lack of sunspots. The correlation between sunspots and the Sun's output is pretty clear, and, around this time, there was an absence of them, with subsequent decrease in solar energy reaching the earth. Thus, cooling. I also have speculation that the Sun plays an integral role in volcanic activity, thus consolidating its role in cooling, but clearly there is no substansial understanding, at least that I've found yet, illuminating what exactly is responsible for the pressures that bring a volcano to erupt (Popular Mechanics: As for volcanoes, the experts simply don't know. As far as geologists have been able to determine, increased activity like that experienced in the latter part of the 20th century is something that happens with no apparent rhyme or reason.). I hold this speculation due to the fact that the Sun is pretty much responsible for all of the Earth's phenomenon.
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What do you mean "underestimated"? The point is that it's pure craziness to think that modern science is unable to take into account such an elementary idea. The sun hypothesis has been studied and debunked.
It isn't accounting for the clear role the Sun has in climate change, especially since we should never forget that it is the heater for this planet, and the only reason there is a climate in the first place.
Some sun hypotheses may have been debunked, but not what I'm proposing, based upon various sets of information, which I believe there is an opportunity later to elaborate upon.
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Quote:
My point is that the Sun is responsible for it all and any other factor plays no real role in climate change.
And my point is you're entirely wrong. Of course the sun's important, but there haven't been any changes that could explain the unprecedented rise in global temperatures. Here's one link debunking that hypothesis.
Its important to stress the context of my statement, which is made from a perspective that isn't so set within the course of years or decades, or any preconception of the global warming debate. Clearly other factors, such as our own emissions and the emissions of volcanoes, play an observable role in climate change. My point is that the Sun is the Alpha and the Omega of the climate, and its subsequent change. I'm stating that, ultimately, all that matters is the Sun regarding this, and I'm even prepared to place on the table that the course of human civilization itself has been played out due to the Sun's output, inevitably bringing humans to the point that they would begin emitting greenhouse gases, thus demonstrating the role the Sun has in climate change. I've been waiting to make a post about the Sun's role in human civilization anyways.
Do you want my analysis? Its seemed pretty conclusive that the Sun (namely, the reduction/absence of sunspots), coupled with volcanic activity, is pretty clearly responsible for global cooling. Why then, as the article you cited points to, did the temperature increase from 1980 to 2000, while the amount of sunspots decreased? Here's a graph that shows this:

It seems pretty conclusive that sunspot/volcanic activity data corresponds fairly well with the global temperature, up until the last section of the last century, and I believe that it also corresponds fairly well for the last four centuries and possibly beyond, including the Maunder Minimum, and this seems to be generally accepted.
Before I propose my answer to the 1980-2000 matter, let's look at another graph which came into play much earlier in this thread:

The number of sunspots has been decreasing, and it peaked in 1998. It is now on a downslope until 2010. Is it really any wonder why the average global mean temperature has started dropping since 1998? Ahh, but why didn't it drop as the sunspots started decreasing from 1980 to about 1998? Greenhouse gases. I'm not denying the role humans have played in this. What has happened is that they have insulated the Earth so that the temperature has no longer corresponded with the amount of sunspots, as it has historically. Of course, as the actual heat source for the Earth, the Sun, is not giving us as much energy, that temperature will eventually begin to drop in accordance with it - insulation doesn't hold heat in forever.
If anything, I think it remains to be seen that human beings are helped by this, as periods of cooling produce much more hardship for humanity than periods of warmth do.
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I presented no logical fallacy- and don't say "appeal to authority"(it's only a fallacy when it's an appeal to false authority).
This isn't true. Appeal to authority is a logical fallacy. The ideas themselves are to support themselves. Authority might assist in developing some knowledge, but its always a fallacy because the ideas are not valid simply due to the credibility of the source.
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Science is a self-correcting process; certainly, it makes mistakes and it's not perfect, but every scientific idea that becomes a matter of consensus has been rigorously tested, debated, and exposed to criticism worldwide.
Indubiantly.
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There are hundreds of thousands of people who've studied climatology for decades and understand the science more intimately than any of us here could possibly hope to. While studies and technological advances have altered the details of our understanding of climate change, it hasn't altered the core theory; in fact, the library of climatological research has confirmed the existence of global warming many times over.
Great. I've never denied the fact that the temperature of this planet has, at times, gotten warmer, nor that humans have some role in that process.
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To say "nope, the scientific community is wrong" and to present such scant and superficial evidence is not just arrogant, but stupid. Do you really think none of those scientists asked themselves "maybe we should look at the sun"?
Nope, I don't think that any of these scientists have not asked themselves that.
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The truth is, there is no controversy over anthropogenic climate change in the scientific community.
Great. I don't see how this contradicts anything I have to say on the matter.
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And you've bought it hook, line and sinker. Congratulations, you're spouting Exxon's disinformation. You've been used.
It'd be better if you were being facetious, because I see no way in which I'm being used by anyone in forming my own opinions on the matter. I don't know how many people share my views on the matter, but most of my viewpoint is based on the solid, underestimated role that the Sun has in every aspect of this planet. Humans emitting greenhouse gases might play some role but not in the context in which I was referring to earlier, which is the sense that the Sun is responsible for all warming and cooling, since it is the source of energy, life, and all that jazz....
--------------------

Meet me in outer space
We could spend the night;
watch the earth come up
I've grown tired of that place;
won't you come with me?
We could start again.
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supernovasky
Scientist

Registered: 01/10/08
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Research going back to Tyndall shows why an increase of a few hundred PPM of CO2 can greatly affect a body of gas' heat absorbant capacity.
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"A new scientific study concludes that changes in the Sun's output cannot be causing modern-day climate change.
It shows that for the last 20 years, the Sun's output has declined, yet temperatures on Earth have risen.
It also shows that modern temperatures are not determined by the Sun's effect on cosmic rays, as has been claimed.
Writing in the Royal Society's journal Proceedings A, the researchers say cosmic rays may have affected climate in the past, but not the present.
"This should settle the debate," said Mike Lockwood, from the UK's Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory, who carried out the new analysis together with Claus Froehlich from the World Radiation Center in Switzerland.
Dr Lockwood initiated the study partially in response to the TV documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle, broadcast on Britain's Channel Four earlier this year, which featured the cosmic ray hypothesis.
"All the graphs they showed stopped in about 1980, and I knew why, because things diverged after that," he told the BBC News website.
"You can't just ignore bits of data that you don't like," he said."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6290228.stm
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Mike Lockwood's analysis appears to have put a large, probably fatal nail in this intriguing and elegant hypothesis.
He said: "I do think there is a cosmic ray effect on cloud cover. It works in clean maritime air where there isn't much else for water vapour to condense around.
"It might even have had a significant effect on pre-industrial climate; but you cannot apply it to what we're seeing now, because we're in a completely different ball game."
Royal Society's journal Proceedings A
Solar variation is NOT causing global warming...
Since the middle of the last century, the Sun is in a phase of unusually high activity, as indicated by frequent occurrences of sunspots, gas eruptions, and radiation storms. Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS) in Katlenburg-Lindau (Germany) and at the University of Oulu (Finland) have come to this conclusion after they have succeeded in reconstructing the solar activity based on the sunspot frequency since 850 AD. To this end, they have combined historical sunspot records with measurements of the frequency of radioactive isotopes in ice cores from Greenland and the Antarctic. As the scientists have reported in the renowned scientific journal, Physical Review Letters, since 1940 the mean sunspot number is higher than it has ever been in the last thousand years and two and a half times higher than the long term average. The temporal variation in the solar activity displays a similarity to that of the mean temperature of the Earth. These scientific results therefore bring the influence of the Sun on the terrestrial climate, and in particular its contribution to the global warming of the 20th century, into the forefront of current interest. However, researchers at the MPS have shown that the Sun can be responsible for, at most, only a small part of the warming over the last 20-30 years. They took the measured and calculated variations in the solar brightness over the last 150 years and compared them to the temperature of the Earth. Although the changes in the two values tend to follow each other for roughly the first 120 years, the Earth’s temperature has risen dramatically in the last 30 years while the solar brightness has not appreciably increased in this time.
They've looked at observations of solar brightness since 1978 and at indirect measures before then, in order to assess how sunspots and faculae affect the Sun’s brightness. The sun CYCLES in brightness intensity every 11 years, and it is only .07% brighter now than it was 30 years ago. Guess what? That's barely any brighter at all... and also, there has been no NET increase in brightness since that time period. Variations of this magnitude are too small to have contributed appreciably to the accelerated global warming observed since the mid-1970s.
A .1% increase in solar out put equates AT MAX to a .1% increase in the temperature of the earth, if the sun is the only source of heat on earth (which, we can say, it pretty much is).
Put it this way... Imagine a ball that is emitting 100J of energy per second to an object, heating that object up. An increase of .1% is only going to be 100.001J, barely changing the temperature of the object.
Imagine a sun, emitting an enormous ammount of energy already. An increase in its output by .1% is only going to raise it by a thousandth. Remember your Q = c * m(object being heated) * T. Temperature linearly corresponds with Q (energy into the system). There is not that big of a difference for the earth, because when you are talking about massive amounts of energy, a thousandth more is not going to make a big difference. Because the sun is our only heat source, then the most 1/1000 increase in output can heat up the planet is 1/1000. If you dont believe me, listen to NOAA:
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"Solar cycles led to a small increase of 0.07% in brightness over the last 30 years. This effect is far too small to contribute significantly to global warming."
# ^ National Center for Atmospheric Research (2006-09-14). "Changes in Solar Brightness Too Weak to Explain Global Warming". Press release. Retrieved on 2007-07-13.
Edited by supernovasky (02/29/08 06:39 PM)
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fireworks_god
Sexy ButtMcDanger



Registered: 03/12/02
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I think I just demonstrated a reasonable explanation for the 1980-1998 matter, in response to the very article that you just posted. The greenhouse gases, much more prevalent now than any, well, ever, as far as our recorded history goes, acted as a buffer to bring the increase in temperature to not correspond with the decrease in solar output. The fact that the global temperature is now in a clear decreasing trend as the amount of sunspots has peaked (in 1998) and is now decreasing until 2010 should speak for this, concluding that the great increase in greenhouse gases in the last few decades insulates the heat and has reached its limit in doing so and begins to decrease as the sun has less output.
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Meet me in outer space
We could spend the night;
watch the earth come up
I've grown tired of that place;
won't you come with me?
We could start again.
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supernovasky
Scientist

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The average global mean has dropped since 1998? No. That's wrong.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
You can look at the global mean right there. The 2000s have the highest 5-year medians ever.
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supernovasky
Scientist

Registered: 01/10/08
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Global temperature is DEFINITELY not decreasing right now, according to NASA.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
By the way, its pretty obvious from your pretty famous graph there that its CO2 causing the increase in temperature, not solar cycles with .07% brighness variance.
Edited by supernovasky (02/29/08 07:16 PM)
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bodynotdead
TrichodermaCultivator



Registered: 05/10/07
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: boomer q]
#8087615 - 02/29/08 07:43 PM (9 months, 9 hours ago) |
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Quote:
boomer q said: incidentally, how is your name luvdemshrooms, and you deny global warming? haven't you learned anything about how to be one with nature from shrooms? you should take a large dose and go watch a glacier fall into the sea
Watching a glacier fall into the sea on shrooms would be beautiful.
how ever the thought of global warming (stronger hurricanes) (impending doom) (tens of billions of people dead) On shrooms = fear, like looking in to the eyes of the devil. That is what global warming is all about fear. NO one should take a large dose and have these thoughts. it would = suicide
-------------------- "absolute power corrupts absolutely".
Lord Acton,
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supernovasky
Scientist

Registered: 01/10/08
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Draw a straight line through thei graphs, and you see undeniable warming surrounded by random noise (and a few unpredictable, yet significant factors such as El Nino and Volcanoes). The anomaly at any given moment depends on any number of things. We’ve seen warming of 0.4 to 0.5 degrees over the satellite era, which is just about the same as the magnitude of the noise from year to year. So you can take “cold” months from the last few years, and compare them to “warm” months 30 years ago, and then conclude that “there is no warming.” That is Cherry-Picking in the extreme.
Here are a few posts on this subject: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2007/12/16/wiggles/ http://tamino.wordpress.com/2007/08/31/garbage-is-forever/ http://tamino.wordpress.com/2007/10/16/many-factors/
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bodynotdead
TrichodermaCultivator



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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: bodynotdead]
#8087644 - 02/29/08 07:48 PM (9 months, 9 hours ago) |
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Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five centuries and ended in 1850. Crops failed through killer frosts and drought. Famine, plague and war were widespread. Harbours froze, so did rivers, and trade ceased.
It's way too early to claim the same is about to happen again, but then it's way too early for the hysteria of the global warmers, too.
-------------------- "absolute power corrupts absolutely".
Lord Acton,
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supernovasky
Scientist

Registered: 01/10/08
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: bodynotdead]
#8087763 - 02/29/08 08:22 PM (9 months, 8 hours ago) |
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By the way, most informed climatologists do not use hadcrut for much more than rough independent confirmation. It is based on inefficient extrapolation.
But, even hadcrut has a strong positive trend. How about you show the ENTIRE hadcrut trend since 1880:
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falcon

Registered: 04/01/02
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: luvdemshrooms]
#8088191 - 02/29/08 10:30 PM (9 months, 6 hours ago) |
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Check out the five links in the Blog entry for February 28th, they are PDF's, http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog
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supernovasky
Scientist

Registered: 01/10/08
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: falcon]
#8088224 - 02/29/08 10:40 PM (9 months, 6 hours ago) |
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May as well ask me to debate the internet. Throw links at me like I'm some sort of peer researcher. Unless it appears in a peer-reviewed journal, and is independantly verifiable, I will not even look at the results. Studies have been outright FAKED many times, and that is why we have the peer review process.
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falcon
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