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 zorbman
Bush Recession2008
Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 3,634
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 Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: bodynotdead]
#8078998 - 02/27/08 08:25 PM (9 months, 2 days ago) |
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Quote:
Temperatures were colder than average across large swathes of central Asia, the Middle East, the western US, Alaska and China. In some parts of China and central Asia, snow fell for the first time in recored history.
So what?
That does not answer my question.
Temperatures are ALWAYS colder or warmer than the norm in certain regions at any given time. There is ALWAYS freak weather going on somewhere on the planet. The question is what is the average global temperature over a meaningful time span?
My question was how does one year of data negate an entire century of warming?
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"I cannot morally blame all Americans for allowing, for instance, the birth of the Federal Reserve System (a private cartel with full control over the issuance of national debt) and the money destruction that has followed. They are simply ignorant about it and don't know what happened or what is happening. They think that prices go up rather than than dollars go down." - John Kenneth Galbraith
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 Phred
Fred's son
Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 10,936
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 10 hours, 42 minutes
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: zorbman]
#8079087 - 02/27/08 08:49 PM (9 months, 2 days ago) |
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Quote:
The question is what is the average global temperature over a meaningful time span?
Depends what you classify as meaningful. The average global temperature for the last twelve months is about the same as it was a century ago.
The global warmenists gleefully trumpet a single year's data if it is up --
"2003 the warmest year in the last ten years!"
-- but if the single year's data is down (as it is this year: WAY down) then a single year's data means nothing. It's a head's I win tails you lose thing with the warmenists.
Phred
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zorbman
Bush Recession2008
Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 3,634
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: Phred]
#8079793 - 02/27/08 11:21 PM (9 months, 2 days ago) |
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Quote:
Depends what you classify as meaningful. The average global temperature for the last twelve months is about the same as it was a century ago.
The global warmenists gleefully trumpet a single year's data if it is up --
"2003 the warmest year in the last ten years!"
-- but if the single year's data is down (as it is this year: WAY down) then a single year's data means nothing. It's a head's I win tails you lose thing with the warmenists.
So-called "global warmists" who cite one year as evidence of anything are just as wrong as those who do so from the opposing minority. I must say I see more of that behavior from the latter as they tend to have no real grounding in science or statistics. The temptation to cherry-pick data by this crowd is almost irresistable.
I agree with you that one year by itself means little but the last I heard each succeeding year has typically been warmer than the last as of late. I'm just wondering what this one year looks like in comparison to those other years. Facts in isolation are unhelpful. Nothing goes straight up or down but the trend certainly seems to be towards increasing average global temperatures.
Most people, especially those with science backgrounds, agree upon that. The debate has now shifted towards whether the temperature increase is due to human activity or not.
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"I cannot morally blame all Americans for allowing, for instance, the birth of the Federal Reserve System (a private cartel with full control over the issuance of national debt) and the money destruction that has followed. They are simply ignorant about it and don't know what happened or what is happening. They think that prices go up rather than than dollars go down." - John Kenneth Galbraith
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Phred
Fred's son
Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 10,936
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 10 hours, 42 minutes
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: zorbman]
#8079841 - 02/27/08 11:36 PM (9 months, 2 days ago) |
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Quote:
I agree with you that one year by itself means little but the last I heard each succeeding year has typically been warmer than the last as of late.
Don't know where you heard that. Average global temperature peaked in 1998 and has been declining (as a trend -- obviously there are times when a year is warmer than the preceding year) ever since. That's a decade of decline now.
Quote:
I'm just wondering what this one year looks like in comparison to those other years. Facts in isolation are unhelpful.
Go here and look at the graphs --
http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm
Quote:
Nothing goes straight up or down but the trend certainly seems to be towards increasing average global temperatures.
No, for the last decade the trend has been to decreasing average global temperatures.
Phred
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zorbman
Bush Recession2008
Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 3,634
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: Phred]
#8079890 - 02/28/08 12:02 AM (9 months, 2 days ago) |
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I make my living largely from analyzing charts for technical trends. In spite of the recent and notable plunge this particular chart shows a clear uptrend. Draw an imaginary line from the troughs and they point up. Both nature and markets (which after all are a part of nature) attempt to balance themselves always. Whenever there is an extreme disruption in the norm there will be an equal and opposite reaction until equilibrium is achieved.
That is a Fundamental Law.
Notice how when the chart dips bigtime there is always a fairly quick response in the opposite direction. And often the more wild the swing, the more wild the response.
(I could make a larger point here about political extremism but you get the drift).
Sure, the temps DO dip occasionaly. But notice how when they do they always stabilize along a higher low which builds a base for another rise.
Some people make a lot of money off of understanding this stuff. And I can tell you, my friend, that the recent wild drop will be offset by an equally wild rise. You cannot take facts in isolation. That is the path of cherry-picking and self-delusion. One should follow the facts where they lead you rather than warping reality to fit one's pre-ordained conclusions.
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"I cannot morally blame all Americans for allowing, for instance, the birth of the Federal Reserve System (a private cartel with full control over the issuance of national debt) and the money destruction that has followed. They are simply ignorant about it and don't know what happened or what is happening. They think that prices go up rather than than dollars go down." - John Kenneth Galbraith
Edited by zorbman (02/28/08 01:58 AM)
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luvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?
Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 12,346
Loc: Lost In Space
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: zorbman]
#8080209 - 02/28/08 02:59 AM (9 months, 2 days ago) |
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The peaks point down. Perhaps a job analyzing charts is not the best choice for you.
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Join The N.R.A.
"Activism is a way for useless people to feel important, even if the consequences of their activism are counterproductive for those they claim to be helping and damaging to the fabric of society as a whole." - Thomas Sowell
"Some of the most vocal critics of the way things are being done are people who have done nothing themselves, and whose only contributions to society are their complaints and moral exhibitionism." - Thomas Sowell
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Edited by luvdemshrooms (02/28/08 03:01 AM)
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luvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?
Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 12,346
Loc: Lost In Space
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: zorbman]
#8080218 - 02/28/08 03:04 AM (9 months, 2 days ago) |
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So do the troughs.
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Join The N.R.A.
"Activism is a way for useless people to feel important, even if the consequences of their activism are counterproductive for those they claim to be helping and damaging to the fabric of society as a whole." - Thomas Sowell
"Some of the most vocal critics of the way things are being done are people who have done nothing themselves, and whose only contributions to society are their complaints and moral exhibitionism." - Thomas Sowell
"A liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man, which debt he proposes to pay off with your money." - G. Gordon Liddy
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luvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?
Registered: 11/29/01
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: zorbman]
#8080243 - 02/28/08 03:35 AM (9 months, 2 days ago) |
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I was going to do more but what's the point. I have little doubt you'd disagree with most placements of the trend lines that didn't suit your fancy.
A look by eye clearly shows a downward trend to any who are open-minded enough to be willing to admit it.
Face it. The models don't work. The trend since 1998 is against your stance.
Quote:
One should follow the facts where they lead you rather than warping reality to fit one's pre-ordained conclusions.
Good advice. Too bad you seem unable to follow what you so easily bandy about.
--------------------
Join The N.R.A.
"Activism is a way for useless people to feel important, even if the consequences of their activism are counterproductive for those they claim to be helping and damaging to the fabric of society as a whole." - Thomas Sowell
"Some of the most vocal critics of the way things are being done are people who have done nothing themselves, and whose only contributions to society are their complaints and moral exhibitionism." - Thomas Sowell
"A liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man, which debt he proposes to pay off with your money." - G. Gordon Liddy
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zorbman
Bush Recession2008
Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 3,634
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You guys simply cannot make your case without cherry-picking your own data. Amazing. That is why the scientific community finds it hard to take your fringe seriously.
I know you had only just recently gotten over the fact that the Earth is not flat or the center of the universe so take it slow when it comes to climate change. You'll get it one day, I know you will.
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"I cannot morally blame all Americans for allowing, for instance, the birth of the Federal Reserve System (a private cartel with full control over the issuance of national debt) and the money destruction that has followed. They are simply ignorant about it and don't know what happened or what is happening. They think that prices go up rather than than dollars go down." - John Kenneth Galbraith
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole
Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 12,229
Last seen: 10 hours, 45 minutes
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: zorbman]
#8082780 - 02/28/08 06:36 PM (9 months, 1 day ago) |
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Why would we cherry pick our data when you do it so well for us? Nice link, by the way. What was it again?
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"For anyone who cares I know zappaisgod personally. He is gay. He is jewish. He is a douche. And he both, has a crush on me:" Some Incredible Retard
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luvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?
Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 12,346
Loc: Lost In Space
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: zorbman]
#8084848 - 02/29/08 02:57 AM (9 months, 1 day ago) |
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Quote:
You guys simply cannot make your case without cherry-picking your own data.
Incredible. I even left off the huge dip at the end so as not to "taint" the chart of peaks and still you go on denying the trend.
How sad.
--------------------
Join The N.R.A.
"Activism is a way for useless people to feel important, even if the consequences of their activism are counterproductive for those they claim to be helping and damaging to the fabric of society as a whole." - Thomas Sowell
"Some of the most vocal critics of the way things are being done are people who have done nothing themselves, and whose only contributions to society are their complaints and moral exhibitionism." - Thomas Sowell
"A liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man, which debt he proposes to pay off with your money." - G. Gordon Liddy
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fireworks_god
Sexy ButtMcDanger
Registered: 03/12/02
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: xFrockx]
#8085245 - 02/29/08 08:39 AM (9 months, 20 hours ago) |
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Quote:
xFrockx said:
We are the fucking rulers of this planet. Our species evolved beyond the capacity of every other animal on this planet, so in my eyes, we won.
Wow, this is the most ignorant thing I've read in at least a month. 
The rulers of this planet? Reading through this entire thread for the first time, I was marveling at the picture all of the different perspectives on this issue have painted regarding how majestically vast and dynamic this planet is as a system... and then I saw this. 
Humans... won?  How does being the most capable of playing our own game have any sort of relevance to other species, who are playing their own game? You do realize that our time on this planet has been very brief and that, with attitudes like that, we soon will be gone?
Wow, that's just wrong... 
--------------------
 
Meet me in outer space
We could spend the night;
watch the earth come up 
I've grown tired of that place;
won't you come with me?
We could start again.
 
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boomer q
Comrade General
Registered: 05/03/07
Posts: 1,036
Loc: Dirty Jersey
Last seen: 8 hours, 43 minutes
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Quote:
luvdemshrooms said:
Lucky for us there are those with open minds who don't swallow every "crisis" hook, line and sinker.
Quote:
so to me, you can pull up any kinds facts
Good to know the facts don't matter to you.
no, the point is that there are tons of statistics which easily lend themselves to misinterpretation, like the fact the the last year was slightly cooler than some people expected...this doesnt say much at all about global warming. speaking of facts, i posted a link to the most recent 940 page IPCC report which has gobs of facts on each page, but none of you climate change deniers wanted to dispute any of those facts, just offer up some bullshit quotes about how there are some scientists who dont agree with the report
and speaking of facts, none of you seemed to want to deal with the fact that we are pouring billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere and that CO2 is a greenhouse gas...why dont you dispute those facts?i had a nice long rant which you deniers seemed to have ignored... ignoring things is your business, ey?
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boomer q
Comrade General
Registered: 05/03/07
Posts: 1,036
Loc: Dirty Jersey
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: boomer q]
#8085485 - 02/29/08 10:07 AM (9 months, 18 hours ago) |
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incidentally, how is your name luvdemshrooms, and you deny global warming? havent you learned anything about how to be one with nature from shrooms? you should take a large dose and go watch a glacier fall into the sea
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 16,838
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 13 minutes, 8 seconds
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: boomer q]
#8085958 - 02/29/08 12:20 PM (9 months, 16 hours ago) |
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> we are pouring billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere and that CO2 is a greenhouse gas...why dont you dispute those facts?
Yep, we are dumping a lot of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Yep, CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
So, now what? Are suggesting that the above two statements prove global warming?
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Just another spore in the wind.
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boomer q
Comrade General
Registered: 05/03/07
Posts: 1,036
Loc: Dirty Jersey
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: Seuss]
#8086010 - 02/29/08 12:36 PM (9 months, 16 hours ago) |
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im asking how you can believe those two basic statements and not believe that humans are having an effect on the global climate. i honestly dont see the argument, please enlighten me as to how you can acknowledge that we humans are putting a gas into the atmosphere at a record pace which we know will warm the planet, and still not believe that we are having an effect on the climate? is it that you think the amount of carbon dioxide we put in the atmosphere is insignificant? that we have not put nearly enough carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to have an effect on the global climate? or is it that you just feel that there are other causes for the recent warming trend, and that humans have a very minimal effect?
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boomer q
Comrade General
Registered: 05/03/07
Posts: 1,036
Loc: Dirty Jersey
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: boomer q]
#8086163 - 02/29/08 01:20 PM (9 months, 15 hours ago) |
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let me copy something from IPCCs 4th assessment report, found here http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm (topic 2), and let me know if you agree with it, or dont
"Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed the pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spenning many thousands of years. The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years. Global increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use, with land-use change providing another significant but smaller contribution. It is very likely that the observed increase in CH4 concentration is predominantly due to agriculture and fossil fuel use. The increase in N2O concentration is primarily due to agriculture. The global atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005."
disagreements?
heres somethin else, as long as im readin the IPCC...
"The observed widespread warming of the atmosphere and ocean, together with ice mass loss, support the conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that global climate change of the past 50 years can be explained without external forcing, and very likely that it is not due to natural causes alone. During this period the sum of solar and volcanic forcings would likely have produced cooling, not warming."
so do you disagree with the assertion that that there is widespread warming of the atmosphere and oceans? or do you disagree with the assertion that the warming would very likely not have happened without external forcings? or do you say yea, they say its extremely likely, but not impossible? or just that these scientists dont know what theyre talking about?
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fireworks_god
Sexy ButtMcDanger
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: boomer q]
#8086195 - 02/29/08 01:31 PM (9 months, 15 hours ago) |
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Its pretty conclusive that the warming and cooling of the earth is resultant of the Sun's output of energy more than anything. Humans might be putting a lot of CO2 into the atmosphere; however, there is a point at which you could dump twice as much of it into the atmosphere and it still would not produce any real effect as far as cooling is concerned. Phred covered this in his first couple of posts in this thread. Go read them.
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Meet me in outer space
We could spend the night;
watch the earth come up
I've grown tired of that place;
won't you come with me?
We could start again.
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boomer q
Comrade General
Registered: 05/03/07
Posts: 1,036
Loc: Dirty Jersey
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: boomer q]
#8086207 - 02/29/08 01:34 PM (9 months, 15 hours ago) |
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"A 2004 article by geologist and historian of science Naomi Oreskes summarized a study of the scientific literature on climate change.[31] The essay concluded that there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. The author analyzed 928 abstracts of papers from refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, listed with the keywords "global climate change". Oreskes divided the abstracts into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. 75% of the abstracts were placed in the first three categories, thus either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, thus taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change; none of the abstracts disagreed with the consensus position, which the author found to be "remarkable". According to the report, "authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point.""
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change#Oreskes.2C_2004
how bout responding to this, also? i know we dont believe that wikipedia is reliable, but i also read the link it provided to the actual essay, and you can, also, if you like
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fireworks_god
Sexy ButtMcDanger
Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 20,453
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Re: Lots of ice cubes now [Re: boomer q]
#8086221 - 02/29/08 01:38 PM (9 months, 15 hours ago) |
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Quote:
Phred said:
There are three kinds of curves to consider, though -- arithmetic, geometric, and logarithmic. The thing is, absorption of infrared by CO2 is a logarithmic function. Most of the absorption occurs with the first little bit of gas present, with each additional doubling of concentration yielding smaller and smaller absorption. Doubling the current concentration of CO2 would result in almost no further absorption. In fact, there are some scientists who say the point of maximum absorption has already been passed, at least in regards to CO2. It certainly has been passed with water vapor and oxygen. There comes a point at which the concentration of a greenhouse gas is sufficiently high that all radiation at the affected wavelengths are blocked.
So no, it does not necessarily stand to reason that the more CO2 in the atmosphere the greater the effect.
--------------------
Meet me in outer space
We could spend the night;
watch the earth come up
I've grown tired of that place;
won't you come with me?
We could start again.
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