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 trendal
point of inflection
 
Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 18,894
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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 The Peak Oil Crisis: Is Anyone Listening?
#7056267 - 06/17/07 08:58 AM (4 years, 11 months ago) |
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The Peak Oil Crisis: Is Anyone Listening?
By Tom Whipple
Thursday, 14 June 2007
The U.S.’s gasoline stockpile situation is quiescent at the minute as we wait to see how much foreign gasoline our oil companies can find to import this summer and whether the Atlantic will start spinning hurricanes toward our shores as forecast.
Many of us were wondering how U.S. gasoline stockpiles went up so much last week at the same time refined gasoline production and imports went down, and gasoline consumption increased. Queries to the folks who produce these numbers at the Energy Information Administration elicited the response that reporting by the oil industry is not always good, as could be hoped for. It is quite possible somebody reported the arrival of lots of gasoline at U.S. ports, but somebody else did not get around to adding it to the inventory right away. In the long run, these discrepancies sort themselves out, but they serve as a reminder that the numbers in weekly oil reports might not always square with reality.
In the meantime, we should all be glad gasoline prices are easing a bit as the markets are figuring that enough gasoline imports will get us through the rest of the summer, no matter how well or poorly we do at keeping our aging refineries patched together.
Last week, a discussion arose among people following peak oil as to whether the message —worldwide oil depletion is imminent— is actually getting through to significant numbers of people. For those of us following the issue, the evidence world production either has or will shortly peak is simply overwhelming. Oil production numbers show no significance increase for the last two years; each day we burn up another 85 million barrels and each year another 31 billion; other liquid fuels such as shale oil, tar sands, tar belts and ethanol are either non-starters or cannot be produced in the quantities needed to offset declines in conventional oil production.
Moreover, the current OPEC production cutback, which has taken 1.2 million barrels per day off the market, will not be reconsidered again until September. Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) credits OPEC with over 2 million barrels a day of spare capacity, mostly in Saudi Arabia, some observers remain skeptical that the capacity to increase production by this much on a sustained basis actually exists.
On Tuesday, the normally optimistic IEA issued its Monthly Oil Market report which, for the fourth month in a row, warned that global oil production is likely to fall below demand in the second half of 2007, with much higher prices the result.
The IEA cited a litany of oil market woes ranging from increasing demand in such unexpected places as Nigeria, Indonesia, Singapore, Venezuela, and the former Yugoslavia, to another 250,000 barrel a day drop in Nigerian oil production.
The bottom line is that according to the IEA world production slipped by over 565,000 barrels a day last month, while demand for 2007 is now projected to increase by 1.7 million barrels a day over 2006. Even without a major weather or geopolitical disruption, it is becoming obvious that something has to give before the year is out. All that demand, at current prices, is simply not going to be satisfied.
The IEA points out that unless OPEC increases production world stockpiles are likely to drop by 1–1.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter, thereby reaching levels not seen since 2004 which in turn triggered large increases in the prices.
The energy bills that will be debated in Congress this week have little to do with the problems that may beset us in the next six months. Proposals to start increasing the efficiency of cars and trucks four years from now and double the average mpg of new cars 23 years from now are simply unrealistic as a solution to imminent shortages. While R&D money for energy is always nice, the payoff is likely to be in decades rather than months. Eight hundred million barrels of bio-fuels 15 years from now may be good, provided we still have enough to eat, but the U.S. consumes some 8 billion barrels of oil a year. Congress is no where near connecting with the real problem. Ritual calls to investigate and punish price gouging will solve nothing.
All this says that, for America and many other countries, the wakeup call has not yet been heard. It is beginning to look as if higher prices alone will not do it either. America’s lifestyle has become so deeply involved with the automobile that according to all the polls, most say they will continue driving-as-usual until their last dollar is exhausted.
It is clearly going to take prolonged gasoline shortages and unbearably long lines at the gas pumps to bring about serious governmental action. One day there will be a run on the pumps.
The American system of driving currently is based on a smooth flow of about 9.5 million barrels a day of gasoline wending its way from the oil fields, through the refineries, to the gas tanks in our cars. Suppose for a minute the word goes out that shortages are nigh and that 210+ million cars and trucks immediately are driven to the gas stations so that their owners will not be caught short. A quick calculation suggests that collectively we Americans have about 50 million barrels worth of empty storage space in our 210 million gas tanks. Given that the useable gasoline stockpile in the US is not much more than 20 or 30 million barrels, if only half of us decided it was time to start keeping our tanks topped off, it is going to be tough to find a gas station open.
So in answer to the opening question, “Is anybody listening?”, the answer is clearly “not yet,” but chances are good that they soon will.
http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1410&Itemid=35
(bold parts for emphasis - trendal)
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You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.
Edited by trendal (06/17/07 09:46 AM)
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trendal
point of inflection
Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 18,894
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Is Anyone Listening? [Re: trendal]
#7056282 - 06/17/07 09:00 AM (4 years, 11 months ago) |
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With the world oil supply so tight, not having increased appreciably for two or three years, it will only take one accident somewhere to cause a pretty massive price-spike.
Keep an eye on the Atlantic hurricane season this year...
--------------------
You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.
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 KaptKid
Spaced Pirate
Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 5,708
Loc: Bright Side of the Sun
Last seen: 2 hours, 6 minutes
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Is Anyone Listening? [Re: trendal]
#7056312 - 06/17/07 09:08 AM (4 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
trendal said:Keep an eye on the Atlantic hurricane season this year...
I am. Eveyone keeps saying my area is do to be hit one. I've been hearing this for 15 years. We could havean oil bath if we do.
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Child of the 60's, Tripping ever since.
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trendal
point of inflection
Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 18,894
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Is Anyone Listening? [Re: trendal]
#7056466 - 06/17/07 09:46 AM (4 years, 11 months ago) |
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Gas Shortage Leads to Empty Pumps
By Caitlin Haedicke
For most of us, rising prices have been the major concern when it comes to gas. But on Friday, it was a different problem plaguing some Sioux Falls drivers.
As people pulled up to a gas station is southeast Sioux Falls, they were greeted with signs they didn't expect. Stations out of gas because of a shortage.
Gas terminals are empty across South Dakota. From Sioux Falls to Yankton to Sioux City, they are all out. And tankers cannot find anywhere to fill up.
"More so this summer it seems and they're saying it's supposed to get worse before it gets better but there's just not enough fuel coming down the pipeline into the delivery system," said BP owner Shane Oien.
Some gas stations in town are running low because of this and some are already out. The BP on Marson and Southeast Street ran out of 87 and 89 grades of gasoline Friday because of the shortage. A small amount of premium was still available, but most took one look at the price and looked for a new place to go.
"It kind of sucks that it's expensive, but that's what i have to do. I don't have a choice," stated Mackenzie Walsch as she filled her car with premium.
Now, gas stations are having to look as far as Nebraska for gas.
"Everyday, it's a commodity, so they cant tell you until the morning what they're getting that afternoon," said Oien.
This type of problem is what drives the gas prices up. When supply is low and demand is high, gas stations say they have no other choice.
Area gas stations were expecting a delivery on Friday night from Nebraska.
Thankfully, gas prices are still down 24 cents from where they were last week.
http://www.ksfy.com/news/local/8027942.html
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Is anyone in SD who could comment on this? How widespread was/is the shortage? Were all gas station affected, or only some?
--------------------
You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.
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