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 Viveka
Architecturer
Registered: 10/21/02
Posts: 3,253
Last seen: 27 minutes, 45 seconds
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 Re: The American dream is over [Re: zorbman]
#5749465 - 06/14/06 11:06 AM (5 years, 11 months ago) |
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I didn't say they didn't enjoy big runs while Clinton was in, I said they were plummeting while Clinton was still in.
Look at the chart here:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/nasdaq1986.html
See what's happening from 2000-2001, before Bush took office.
Look at this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1986.html
Look what's happening from '99-2001. Can we say Bubble?
My bigger point is that correlation does not equal causation. Clinton in office + growing economy does not equal Clinton and Dems grew the economy. The DOW leveling and Nasdaq plummeting while Clinton is still in office does not equal Clinton and Dems sabatoged the market.
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Throw out your gold teeth and see how they roll
The answer they reveal - life is unreal
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 zorbman
Be Prepared
Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,475
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Re: The American dream is over [Re: Viveka]
#5749869 - 06/14/06 01:36 PM (5 years, 11 months ago) |
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I would hardly describe that period as "plummeting". That one year period appears almost exactly like the period 98-99 on my chart after which the market took off. Markets do not go straight up or down. They can go up for a while and go through a consolidation phase after which they resume their upwards march. The stock market has actually been flat since Clinton left office.
I agree that presidents do get too much blame/credit for the economy. There are many other powerful forces at work. And there is a time lag between the initiation of new economic policies and when they are felt in the economy. But Bush is well into his Presidency and must accept his share of blame for a stagnant stock market and economy at this point.
I also agree with you that there is a bubble in the stock market. Let's take a look and see if we can find out what is constraining it from heading higher. Here are a couple of charts for you. (Apologies in advance for any difficulty viewing the first one. For some reason the white background didn't make the trip.)
Notice the overhead resistance going back to '00- every time the DOW hits 11,350 it gets smacked back down. That represents extremely strong technical resistance. The chart does not show the most recent smack down of the last couple of weeks.
This one is highly speculative and I don't want to get off on a tangent, but it is interesting none the less.
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Men occasionally stumble over the truth but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened. - Winston Churchill
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Viveka
Architecturer
Registered: 10/21/02
Posts: 3,253
Last seen: 27 minutes, 45 seconds
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Re: The American dream is over [Re: zorbman]
#5750137 - 06/14/06 03:02 PM (5 years, 11 months ago) |
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Well that second chart seems like a really contrived correlation since I'm not sure how they compared the DOW figure to the Peak Oil measurement. What are the numbers on the left, billions of barrels? Plus, there's only one potential point of correlation there, at the top. Maybe I'm misinterpreting it.
But I agree with you that it's very peculiar the market keeps hitting the same ceiling. Of course, we might need another several decades of chart to really start to get a good idea of the reason. But here's an idea: Maybe the reason the market keeps biting it at 11,350 is because that was the Apex. So whenever it reaches that height again, investor confidence falls because everyone's expecting it to drop off again. People are always looking in the rear view mirror and you can't overlook the power of expectation and belief in addition to all the economic factors. This pschological factor could be enough of an obstacle on its own.
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Throw out your gold teeth and see how they roll
The answer they reveal - life is unreal
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