|
 Ego Death
Justadropofwaterinanendlesssea
Registered: 04/27/03
Posts: 6,636
Loc: The War Machine
|
 A question
#8432276 - 05/22/08 09:44 AM (5 months, 30 days ago) |
|
|
I have a gold ring as a prize if you can guess which box I put it in.
There are 3 boxes, you cannot look as I place the ring in 1 of the boxes.
Now, take a guess at the box 1,2 or 3?
I offer to help you. I will take away 1 of the boxes that is empty.
Now I ask would you like to stick with your original guess or would you like to swap to the other remaining box? So, stick or swap? What do you think?
|
 WhiskeyClone
Not here
Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 13,662
Loc: Longitudinal Center of Ca...
Last seen: 17 hours, 11 minutes
|
|
We don't know which one you took away. I guessed #1, if it is gone now, I'll try #2.
Where's my ring? 
--------------------
-oOo-
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day. -- `Ah, so you shall be sure to be misunderstood.' -- Is it so bad, then, to be misunderstood? Pythagoras was misunderstood, and Socrates, and Jesus, and Luther, and Copernicus, and Galileo, and Newton, and every pure and wise spirit that ever took flesh. To be great is to be misunderstood.
~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"
-oOo-
|
 Middleman
auditory thalamus
Registered: 07/11/99
Posts: 4,412
Last seen: 3 seconds
|
|
Have you seen the movie '21'? 
Swap. I still don't really understand why it makes a difference statistically.
|
just me
Friend
Registered: 07/01/07
Posts: 4,590
Loc: MO/FL/TX/HI
Last seen: 5 hours, 50 minutes
|
|
Quote:
WhiskeyClone said:
We don't know which one you took away. I guessed #1, if it is gone now, I'll try #2.
Where's my ring?
well thats cheating! whats ur FINAL guess, cuz i was gonna say #2 and stick with it, but if youre playin flip flop then 
--------------------
  
--------------------------------------------------
For All Your ETHNO SEEDS Needs, Come See Me @ www.FreeSeedsRing.org
--------------------------------------------------
-pEaCeLoVeGoDbLeSs-
"The Downfall of Mankind; is Believing He Has Limitations."
|
Middleman
auditory thalamus
Registered: 07/11/99
Posts: 4,412
Last seen: 3 seconds
|
|
Quote:
WhiskeyClone said:
We don't know which one you took away. I guessed #1, if it is gone now, I'll try #2.
Where's my ring?
He won't take away the one you guessed. Do you still swap?
|
Quarryman
Stranger
Registered: 07/29/07
Posts: 703
Loc: Tennessee
|
|
Swap
Only 1/3 of the time you will have got it right the first time, so the chances are you got it wrong and should swap.
|
WhiskeyClone
Not here
Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 13,662
Loc: Longitudinal Center of Ca...
Last seen: 17 hours, 11 minutes
|
|
Quote:
Quarryman said:
Swap
Only 1/3 of the time you will have got it right the first time, so the chances are you got it wrong and should swap.
Ah.. I knew there was something to it.
I remember this problem in the form of a game show with three doors. I missed it then too.
--------------------
-oOo-
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day. -- `Ah, so you shall be sure to be misunderstood.' -- Is it so bad, then, to be misunderstood? Pythagoras was misunderstood, and Socrates, and Jesus, and Luther, and Copernicus, and Galileo, and Newton, and every pure and wise spirit that ever took flesh. To be great is to be misunderstood.
~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"
-oOo-
|
Diploid
Cuban
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 9,909
Loc: Rabbit Hole
|
Re: A question (moved)
#8432352 - 05/22/08 10:20 AM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
 This thread was moved from Philosophy & Spirituality.
Reason:
This has nothing to do with P&S, but it IS a classic problem in the branch of mathematics called Game Theory, so I'm moving this to the Science forum.
BTW, the correct answer to optimize your chance of finding the ring is to swap. I'll let the geeks in the Science forum go into the details.
|
woohoo1000
pebble toss
Registered: 04/23/08
Posts: 163
Last seen: 1 day, 20 hours
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: Diploid]
#8432367 - 05/22/08 10:25 AM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
Paradox?
--------------------
one love
Edited by woohoo1000 (05/22/08 10:26 AM)
|
Ego Death
Justadropofwaterinanendlesssea
Registered: 04/27/03
Posts: 6,636
Loc: The War Machine
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: Diploid]
#8432368 - 05/22/08 10:25 AM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Philosophy is the discipline concerned with questions of how one should live (ethics); what sorts of things exist (metaphysics); the nature of knowledge (epistemology); and the principles of reasoning (logic).
This question is intended for philosophical answers. Obviously I know the answer. Its not a science question lol.
The point is that our basic principals of reasoning are often flawed even though they may seem simple and correct.
Well done to those of you that got it/knew it - but theres no gold ring 
|
WhiskeyClone
Not here
Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 13,662
Loc: Longitudinal Center of Ca...
Last seen: 17 hours, 11 minutes
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: woohoo1000]
#8432383 - 05/22/08 10:28 AM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
--------------------
-oOo-
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day. -- `Ah, so you shall be sure to be misunderstood.' -- Is it so bad, then, to be misunderstood? Pythagoras was misunderstood, and Socrates, and Jesus, and Luther, and Copernicus, and Galileo, and Newton, and every pure and wise spirit that ever took flesh. To be great is to be misunderstood.
~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"
-oOo-
|
NIMH
MadCap
Registered: 05/13/08
Posts: 262
Loc: Central Oregon
Last seen: 1 month, 19 days
|
|
Quote:
WhiskeyClone said:
We don't know which one you took away. I guessed #1, if it is gone now, I'll try #2.
Where's my ring?
Thats funny shit right there.
--------------------
I must not Fear. Fear is the mindkiller . Fear is the little-death that
brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over and
through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. ONLY I WILL REMAIN.
|
Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 16,763
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 18 hours, 14 minutes
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: Diploid]
#8433912 - 05/22/08 05:48 PM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
.
--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.
Edited by Seuss (05/22/08 05:49 PM)
|
johnm214
Registered: 05/31/07
Posts: 6,924
Loc: Americas
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: Seuss]
#8433922 - 05/22/08 05:50 PM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Seuss said:
.
agreed
|
just me
Friend
Registered: 07/01/07
Posts: 4,590
Loc: MO/FL/TX/HI
Last seen: 5 hours, 50 minutes
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: johnm214]
#8433928 - 05/22/08 05:51 PM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
johnm214 said:
Quote:
Seuss said:
.
agreed
did you see what he had written at first?
--------------------
--------------------------------------------------
For All Your ETHNO SEEDS Needs, Come See Me @ www.FreeSeedsRing.org
--------------------------------------------------
-pEaCeLoVeGoDbLeSs-
"The Downfall of Mankind; is Believing He Has Limitations."
|
johnm214
Registered: 05/31/07
Posts: 6,924
Loc: Americas
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: just me]
#8434140 - 05/22/08 06:48 PM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
What did he write at first?
--- -- --. ? / -.-- --- ..- / -.-. .-. .- -.-. -.- . -.. / - .... . / -.-. --- -.. . / -.-- --- ..- / .--- .- -.-. -.- .- ... ... --..-- / .-.. --- .-..
|
just me
Friend
Registered: 07/01/07
Posts: 4,590
Loc: MO/FL/TX/HI
Last seen: 5 hours, 50 minutes
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: johnm214]
#8434142 - 05/22/08 06:48 PM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
buncha mumbo jumbo
--------------------
--------------------------------------------------
For All Your ETHNO SEEDS Needs, Come See Me @ www.FreeSeedsRing.org
--------------------------------------------------
-pEaCeLoVeGoDbLeSs-
"The Downfall of Mankind; is Believing He Has Limitations."
|
Cameron
perma-stone
Registered: 10/31/07
Posts: 2,143
Loc: Canada
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: just me]
#8434919 - 05/22/08 10:22 PM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
If you take one empty box away, isn't it still a 50/50 chance to get the ring, whether you switch your answer or not? If the ring is in box 2, and you originally chose box 1, then switching your answer will win you the ring, but when reversed (two options being the 50/50 chance), the same move loses you the ring. What am I missing? 
|
Cameron
perma-stone
Registered: 10/31/07
Posts: 2,143
Loc: Canada
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: Cameron]
#8435011 - 05/22/08 10:41 PM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
OK, I get it now (thanks Wikipedia). It's the way the question is worded. If the person removing one of the boxes knows it is empty, then the box that neither of you chose is 66% likely to be the ring, because your box was 33% at the start - the knowledge of the removed box's contents transfers the 33% probability from that box. If the person removing the box didn't know the contents, then they have a 33% chance of removing the car, thereby eliminating any advantage that would be gained by removing an empty box with the knowledge of its contents.
Tough question.
|
just me
Friend
Registered: 07/01/07
Posts: 4,590
Loc: MO/FL/TX/HI
Last seen: 5 hours, 50 minutes
|
Re: A question (moved) [Re: Cameron]
#8435061 - 05/22/08 10:53 PM (5 months, 29 days ago) |
|
|
WHO GETS THE DAM RING?!?!?
--------------------
--------------------------------------------------
For All Your ETHNO SEEDS Needs, Come See Me @ www.FreeSeedsRing.org
--------------------------------------------------
-pEaCeLoVeGoDbLeSs-
"The Downfall of Mankind; is Believing He Has Limitations."
|
|
login or 
register to post messages and view our members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, encrypted messages, file attachments, board customizations, and much more!
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit 
Reply 
Quote 
