|
 supernovasky
Scientist
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 763
Last seen: 3 hours, 41 minutes
|
 Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc)
#8384609 - 05/10/08 08:29 AM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
Guys... Just out of curiousity, why do you think Obama is polling so far ahead of McCain right now? I mean, I figured when a nominee was certain, that nominee would do well against McCain, but I wasn't expecting poll numbers to jump this high!
Rasmussen Tracking 05/05 - 05/08 1600 LV 47 44 Obama +3.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 05/01 - 05/08 -- 46 40 Obama +6.0
Ipsos 04/30 - 05/04 755 RV 46 42 Obama +4.0
CBS News/NY Times 05/01 - 05/03 601 RV 51 40 Obama +11.0
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/may%209%20poll.pdf
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr080505-2topline.pdf&id=3909
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/MAY08A-Politics.pdf
|
Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 15,434
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 8 hours, 49 seconds
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: supernovasky]
#8384617 - 05/10/08 08:36 AM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
> Just out of curiousity, why do you think Obama is polling so far ahead of McCain right now?
I think it is mostly 'error'. Not in the sense that the statistics/science behind the polls are inaccurate, but rather the polls are trying to measure something which is silly to try and measure at this time. Once the Democrats settle on somebody, and once we have a few debates between somebody and McCain, then the polls will start to reflect who people are actually going to vote for.
--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.
|
supernovasky
Scientist
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 763
Last seen: 3 hours, 41 minutes
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Seuss]
#8384629 - 05/10/08 08:44 AM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
Still, I've got to say it's a nice advantage for Obama going into this. No matter how you look at it, the polls have been trending in a positive direction towards him. I don't really buy the error explanation, because the polls have not been gyrating wildly- - - they are not in disagreement. 2 weeks ago, he was polling 1-3 points down from McCain consistently. I've got to think that public opinion has turned in his favor, at the very least.
|
 afoaf
CEO DBK?
Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 31,874
Loc: Ripple's Heart
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: supernovasky]
#8384691 - 05/10/08 09:14 AM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
an average of +6 doesn't strike me as "QUITE ahead"
--------------------
I eat steak medium at most, I use bare hands to eat it and its usually after an hour long fuck fest with several women, and with a full keg of the coldest beer.
|
supernovasky
Scientist
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 763
Last seen: 3 hours, 41 minutes
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: afoaf]
#8384704 - 05/10/08 09:19 AM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
+6 is quite ahead whenever the average of the numbers have been in the margin of error for the last 2 months or so, and Obama's been behind. There's no question his numbers are quite improved across the board.
|
Redstorm
Prince of Bugs
Registered: 10/08/02
Posts: 39,440
Loc: [life]now[/life]
Last seen: 2 hours, 38 minutes
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: afoaf]
#8384707 - 05/10/08 09:22 AM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
I'm not saying these polls are a valid representation of what will happen come November, but plus 6 is quite considerable when you note that most elections are won by less than 5 percentage points.
|
Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 15,434
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 8 hours, 49 seconds
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: supernovasky]
#8384804 - 05/10/08 10:20 AM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
> I've got to think that public opinion has turned in his favor, at the very least.
Today, perhaps. Public opinion is a fickle thing that can change over trivialities from day to day. Of course, it doesn't hurt to have the public opinion in your favor, and it has the potential to become the wave that Obama rides to gain the needed supercorrupt, er superdelegate votes that he needs for the nomination. Time will tell.
--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.
|
Yossarian22
Stranger
Registered: 09/12/07
Posts: 378
Last seen: 10 days, 9 hours
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Seuss]
#8385034 - 05/10/08 11:57 AM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
My pessimistic side says that these numbers are because voters are still thinking of issues and see McCain as a continuation of the Bush legacy. Once the general starts approaching I have no doubt the Republican smear machine will be as geared up as ever and ferociously desperate to boot. I just hope Obama can keep the focus on McCain's policies instead of the idiotic guilt-by-association smear du jour.
|
danknugz81
spiralingdownward
Registered: 02/22/08
Posts: 770
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Yossarian22]
#8385083 - 05/10/08 12:16 PM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
McCain is a weak candidate so it comes to no surprise to me that Obama is polling ahead of him. I think people have come to realize that he's a flip-flopper on issues, and how can you take someone who changes opinions so frequently seriously? While Fox news and the other propaganda outlets have been going on ad nauseum about the revernend wright "controversy" (which no one but sean hannity gives a shit about) they have neglected to mention McCain's nutcase preacher Hagee, and allegations of McCain campaign fraud. is it really surprising that they're covering up for their boy?
i really hope Ron Paul stays in this election to at least keep it somewhat interesting. the other candidates suck
|
Mushmonkey
shiftlesslayabout
Registered: 09/25/03
Posts: 6,511
Last seen: 2 hours, 1 minute
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: danknugz81]
#8385426 - 05/10/08 01:58 PM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
mccain's a weak candidate, but so are all of them.
even obama. obama strikes me like kennedy.. when it comes down to it he hasn't done shit, won't do shit, but he's loved anyway.
why is he polling ahead? because the race hasn't started and he's been on the news, which probably means most people are so dumb they misunderstand the question and answer who they're voting for right now. or perhaps they randomly called more black people in these recent polls -- obama's pretty much got that vote locked down. lol, race isnt an issue, lol.
--------------------
i finally got around to making a sig
revel in its glory and quake in fear at its might
grar.
|
afoaf
CEO DBK?
Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 31,874
Loc: Ripple's Heart
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Redstorm]
#8385521 - 05/10/08 02:22 PM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
is that across all elected offices?
the last 2 presidential elections seem to be the exception to the rule.
80 - 90.9 v 9.1
84 - 97.6 v 2.4
88 - 79.2 v 20.6
92 - 68.8 v 31.2
96 - 70.4 v 29.6
00 - 50.4 v 49.4
04 - 53.2 v 46.7
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
--------------------
I eat steak medium at most, I use bare hands to eat it and its usually after an hour long fuck fest with several women, and with a full keg of the coldest beer.
|
Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 15,434
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 8 hours, 49 seconds
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: afoaf]
#8385557 - 05/10/08 02:30 PM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
> the last 2 presidential elections seem to be the exception to the rule.
Interesting... Maybe those folks with the tinfoil hats are on to something here. 
--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.
|
danknugz81
spiralingdownward
Registered: 02/22/08
Posts: 770
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Mushmonkey]
#8385641 - 05/10/08 02:49 PM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Mushmonkey said:
mccain's a weak candidate, but so are all of them.
even obama. obama strikes me like kennedy.. when it comes down to it he hasn't done shit, won't do shit, but he's loved anyway.
why is he polling ahead? because the race hasn't started and he's been on the news, which probably means most people are so dumb they misunderstand the question and answer who they're voting for right now. or perhaps they randomly called more black people in these recent polls -- obama's pretty much got that vote locked down. lol, race isnt an issue, lol.
i agree that obama hasnt done much of anything and isnt the strongest candidate. the thing with obama is that he represents "change". while most informed people know that his policies are nothing revolutionary, the majority of americans see a black man as president as a HUGE change (which it is, if you view things in terms of race.)
i think the one thing obama has going for him above all the other candidates is his "likability" factor. "conservatives" seem to think that the Hamas leader giving his obama endorsement is a bad thing, while i view it as a positive - it means that diplomacy might be an option rather than just war-mongering. we're already in a war we cant afford to pay for and these fucks want to get us into potentially 2 more wars (Iran and Venezuela)? i just dont see the logic in it at all.
|
supernovasky
Scientist
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 763
Last seen: 3 hours, 41 minutes
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: danknugz81]
#8385856 - 05/10/08 03:42 PM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
Afoaf, your numbers are wrong:
1996:
50% - 42% - 8%
1992:
43%, 38%, 19%
1988:
53%- 46%
1984:
59% - 41%
1980:
51%- 41% - 6%
1976:
50% -48%
1972:
60% - 37%
1968:
43.4%, 42.7%
1964:
61% - 38%
1960:
49.7% - 49.5%
So as you can see, there have been a bunch of close elections.
http://www.multied.com/elections/1960pop.html
Just change the date to see the results.
|
supernovasky
Scientist
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 763
Last seen: 3 hours, 41 minutes
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: supernovasky]
#8385865 - 05/10/08 03:44 PM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
i think the one thing obama has going for him above all the other candidates is his "likability" factor. "conservatives" seem to think that the Hamas leader giving his obama endorsement is a bad thing, while i view it as a positive - it means that diplomacy might be an option rather than just war-mongering. we're already in a war we cant afford to pay for and these fucks want to get us into potentially 2 more wars (Iran and Venezuela)? i just dont see the logic in it at all.
GOOD point man. I mean, fuck, we're never going to eradicate all of the bad people in this world, that shouldn't even be a goal. Instead, we can recognize that some people and some governments will always be corrupt, but through statesmanship, we can at least raise the quality of life for everyone in all nations, and leave it up to them to personally overthrow their own corruption. We need to provide the environment, not be the forcing hand.
|
afoaf
CEO DBK?
Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 31,874
Loc: Ripple's Heart
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: supernovasky]
#8387749 - 05/11/08 12:35 AM (3 months, 24 days ago) |
|
|
there is a big difference between the popular vote
and the electoral college vote.
last I checked american presidential elections were
decided by electoral college votes.
perhaps it is unfair to compare polling values with
electoral college results, I will concede that, but
by and large the gap between winner and loser in
US presidential elections is by and large more than
5%.
--------------------
I eat steak medium at most, I use bare hands to eat it and its usually after an hour long fuck fest with several women, and with a full keg of the coldest beer.
|
Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 15,434
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 8 hours, 49 seconds
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: danknugz81]
#8388281 - 05/11/08 07:33 AM (3 months, 23 days ago) |
|
|
> the thing with obama is that he represents "change".
Unfortunately, Obama's way of changing equates to extreme socialism. Even worse, it isn't US socialism, but world wide socialism supported by the US taxpayer. Gah, the next four years are going to suck, regardless of which of the three gets elected.
--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.
|
Yossarian22
Stranger
Registered: 09/12/07
Posts: 378
Last seen: 10 days, 9 hours
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Seuss]
#8388435 - 05/11/08 09:09 AM (3 months, 23 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Seuss said:
> the thing with obama is that he represents "change".
Unfortunately, Obama's way of changing equates to extreme socialism. Even worse, it isn't US socialism, but world wide socialism supported by the US taxpayer. Gah, the next four years are going to suck, regardless of which of the three gets elected.
What in God's name are you rambling on about? Do you honestly think a center-left American politician is a member of ComIntern or something? What policies of his do you consider "extreme socialism"?
|
afoaf
CEO DBK?
Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 31,874
Loc: Ripple's Heart
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: Yossarian22]
#8388487 - 05/11/08 09:33 AM (3 months, 23 days ago) |
|
|
universal health care, dictating acceptable corporate profit levels
and any of the other ridiculous bullshit he's proposed in an effort
to close that "gap".
--------------------
I eat steak medium at most, I use bare hands to eat it and its usually after an hour long fuck fest with several women, and with a full keg of the coldest beer.
|
supernovasky
Scientist
Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 763
Last seen: 3 hours, 41 minutes
|
Re: Obama is now polling QUITE ahead of McCain (+11, +6, +4, etc) [Re: afoaf]
#8388499 - 05/11/08 09:38 AM (3 months, 23 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
universal health care, dictating acceptable corporate profit levels
and any of the other ridiculous bullshit he's proposed in an effort
to close that "gap".
And you know what, there are going to be people who, like you, do not agree with this stuff. No matter though, because I've got a good feeling that there are more of us who really do believe that things need to change dramatically in that direction... I'm tired of these republicans getting into office and fucking up this country and this world, I'm tired of idiotic foreign policy, and I'm tired of pseudo-unrestrained capitalism (I say pseudo-unrestrained because the government DOES play a part in capitalism even under the republicans, but they play a part in the form of sweetheart deals and rising corporate profits at the expense of the lower class).
So while these next 4-8 years might suck for you, Yossarian, they represent an opening, a dream for millions of people in this country. It's all in the eye of the beholder. I had to go through 8 years of Bush, its about time to have someone liberal for a change.
|
|
login or 
register to post messages and view our members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, encrypted messages, file attachments, board customizations, and much more!
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit 
Reply 
Quote 
